1. Introduction
Urbanization, the conversion of lands that were previously undeveloped, rural, or agricultural to developed land cover (
i.e., urban commercial, industrial, and residential land uses consisting of a mosaic of built and vegetated land) is occurring at a rapid pace throughout the world [
1,
2]. Urban growth and associated land use change and subsequent land cover change, have numerous effects on ecological systems [
3]. Urbanization modifies and often substitutes natural ecosystem processes (
i.e., surface water runoff, ground water recharge, nitrogen balances, light availability) with human constructed infrastructure (e.g., sewer systems and wastewater treatment plants). Urbanization often leads to a degradation of ecosystems requiring the monitoring of regional changes through time [
2]. Intensive agriculture and production forests often have reduced biodiversity stores, but conversion of these land uses to urban lands often further reduces the biodiversity present [
2], a trend that may be modified in residential areas where the human modified landscape may actually increase the available resources through the increased habitat heterogeneity [
4,
5].
The land area that is urbanized continues to increase as the human population grows [
1,
3,
6,
7,
8], and currently covers about 3% of Earth’s land area [
9,
10]. Characterizing land cover of urban and urbanizing areas and change over time [
8,
11,
12] are important activities in several fields including urban ecology [
13], urban planning [
8], land cover change modeling [
14] and landscape ecology [
15]. Documenting land cover change over time is essential in understanding both system trends and the specific changes that have occurred [
16]. As areas become urbanized and land uses change from primarily production agriculture and forestry (lowlands of the Pacific Northwest) to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, the land cover of these areas change both in species composition (from forests to non-native shrubs, lawn, and planted tree species with remnant patches of native forest) and in structure with more impervious surface area, and simplified vertical diversity of vegetation [
13]. The conversion of large areas of agricultural and forested lands, which hold great stores of biodiversity [
2,
17], into developed land cover has potential impact on the native biodiversity of an area [
18,
19].
Satellite-based remote sensing provides a ready source of medium-to-high resolution (30 m to 4 m) imagery from which to map land cover changes across time. Many studies have documented the use of satellite imagery in developing land cover maps (e.g., [
20]), including studies that have documented changes in urban extent and pattern over time [
21,
22,
23,
24,
25,
26,
27,
28]. Urban land cover is a finely grained mosaic of land cover types, many of which have similar spectral signatures making their differentiation difficult [
29,
30,
31]. Methods are required that can separate the component parts of urban land cover (
i.e., buildings, paved surfaces, vegetation, and shade from buildings and taller vegetation). Urban patterns often exist at a grain that is much finer (
i.e., <30 m) than that of satellites with wide area coverage (e.g., Landsat Thematic Mapper [TM], Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer [MODIS]) making per-pixel classification methods problematic [
29]. Satellites with higher spatial resolution (e.g., Ikonos, Quickbird) do not have either the spatial or temporal extent necessary to study long term changes across large urbanizing regions. Recent advances in spectral unmixing techniques to separate reflectance into constituent elements (e.g., impervious surfaces, vegetation, and shade) for each pixel in an image, allows finer (sub-pixel) differentiation of land cover classes [
32,
33,
34,
35]. Linear spectral unmixing assumes that recorded spectra are a linear combination of all the component elements within each pixel and are directly related to the proportion of ground area they cover within that pixel [
36,
37]. Recent studies [
38,
39,
40,
41] have used spectral unmixing to improve class differentiation in urban areas. Spectral unmixing techniques, however, still have limitations such as the inability to differentiate the type of impervious surface (
i.e., bare soil, pavement, rooftop, bare rock).
Another method used in past studies to improve land cover class differentiation is the use of multi-season and multi-date imagery. Some classes, such as forest clearcuts, exist as large homogenous patches and have temporal characteristics that are quite different from urban objects. A recent clearcut will have little vegetation, but will have been forested in earlier images and exhibit re-growth in later images. Another common problem in urban remote sensing is the spectral confusion between bare soil and urban surfaces. Within our study area, there are numerous agricultural areas that often have tilled or unplanted fields and are spectrally similar to urban areas. As with clearcuts, the temporal characteristics of agricultural areas are quite different from urban pixels in that they typically alternate from a vegetated to non-vegetated state both within and between seasons and years.
Spatial context, such as elevation or percent slope, also can be used to differentiate developed land uses from undeveloped land uses such as clearcuts, which in our region generally occur in the higher elevations. Steep slopes are more likely to have bare rock than developed land cover. A combination of spatial context with traditional pixel-based classifications has been used in previous studies to add additional classes and improve class differentiation [
11,
12,
27,
42].
Another method for classifying change over time is to use the temporal context present in time series data to develop a pixel-level “landscape trajectory” of land cover change [
12]. Here we use the term landscape trajectories to refer both to the phenomenon of urban development where less intensive land uses are replaced to more intensive land uses and to describe the reforestation that occurs following timber harvest. For example, since urban areas are built up through a progression of successively more intense land uses, pixels that transition to a higher percentage of impervious surface in successive dates can be assumed to have undergone an increase in land use intensity. Forests are often cleared for agriculture or urban development. Extensive bottomland agriculture is often prime land for conversion into commercial land uses given the low relief and existing road infrastructure. However, because of the fine-grained spatial heterogeneity of urban areas, differences between dates are often due to misalignment or mis-classification and not representative of true change. Multi-date images can be used to improve individual date classification accuracies through the use of post-classification change rules [
43]. When conducting post-classification change detection, it is important to have the highest accuracy possible in each date so as to minimize observed change due to classification errors in one or more dates [
44,
45,
46].
Our objective in this study was to develop a multi-date land cover database for the urbanizing Central Puget Sound region of western Washington State, USA, and to examine change in composition and configuration of land cover over a twenty year time span. Due to the high heterogeneity of urban landscapes and our desire to increase both the spatial and class resolution, traditional satellite image classification techniques were insufficient. We developed a technique that combined multiple methods, each targeted at classifying a specific land cover class and maximizing class separation. We used supervised classification, spectral unmixing, image segmentation, multi-date and multi-season imagery, and temporal landscape trajectory rules to accomplish our task. Our specific objectives were: (1) develop a multi-date land cover classification for highly heterogeneous urban environments using mixed classification methods, post-classification techniques, and landscape trajectory analysis to improve class resolution and accuracy of our classifications; (2) document amounts and changes in land cover composition and configuration from 1986-2002; and (3) assess the accuracy of our classifications.
3. Results and Discussion
Our study combined image segmentation, supervised classification, spectral mixture analysis, time series analysis, GIS data integration, and trajectories of landscape change to derive five dates (1986, 1991, 1995, 1999, and 2002) of land cover at a relatively high spatial resolution (30 m) for a large, highly heterogeneous, and changing urban region. The use of these techniques in concert allowed us to map 14 land cover classes, including three classes of urban land cover, and compare both the composition and configuration of the landscape over time.
3.1. Land Cover Classifications and Landscape Trajectories
We developed 9-class maps for all five dates using the methods described above. These preliminary maps did not differentiate between grass, agriculture, and land cleared for development. In these preliminary maps there was considerable confusion between Deciduous and Mixed Forest (DMF) and Coniferous Forest (CF) classes and between different classes of urban with intensity (
i.e., heavy, medium, light) varying between dates. In addition, areas of cloud and cloud shadow were classified as urban or as water, respectively. To address these problems, we used a series of landscape trajectory rules, each developed specifically for an observed problem. For example, if a pixel was classified as a higher intensity of urban in two or more, earlier dates, it was assumed to remain at least that intensity of urban into the future. In general the urban class confusion was between High and Medium or Medium and Low Intensity Urban classes. We illustrate the effect of this rule for transitions between 1986 and 1991 (
Table 2). We addressed the confusion between DMF and CF by classifying a pixel to the majority class from across all five dates, weighted towards CF at elevations above 300 m above sea level and towards DMF at elevations below 300 m. We separated grass and bare soil into Grass (GR), Agriculture (AG), Land Cleared for Development (LCD), and Clearcut (CC) using the temporal patterns observed in the 9-class maps. Specifically, GR would remain grass over time; AG would vary between grass and bare soil over time; LCD would start out in a class with vegetation, become a class without vegetation [LCD], and then become an urban class; Clearcut would begin as forest and change to bare soil or grass.
Table 2.
Change in urban land cover class area (km2) between 1986 and 1991 for the preliminary (hybrid classification approaches applied) and final (landscape trajectory post-classification rules applied) maps.
Table 2.
Change in urban land cover class area (km2) between 1986 and 1991 for the preliminary (hybrid classification approaches applied) and final (landscape trajectory post-classification rules applied) maps.
Preliminary Nine Class | 1986 |
| | HUI | MUI | LUI | Total |
1991 | HUI | 7771 | 249 | 69 | |
| MUI | 262 | 588 | 231 | |
| LUI | 46 | 225 | 316 | 2,7641 |
Final Fourteen Class | | | | |
1991 | HUI | 235 | 34 | 7 | |
| MUI | | 558 | 136 | |
| LUI | | | 458 | 1,427 |
While it would be useful to have a standard set of trajectory rules, it is unlikely that such rules exist given that each landscape is undergoing transitions potentially driven by many different factors [
19,
66]. In areas where urbanization is driving anthropogenic landscape change, assumptions can be made that land use is becoming more intensive and therefore land cover is likely increasing in impervious surfaces [
40].
3.2. Land Cover Amounts and Patterns over Time
Our study region, the Central Puget Sound, is dominated by forests, with lesser amounts of water, urban, grass, and agriculture (
Table 3). Over our 16 year study period, urban land cover increased from 1,632 km
2 (8.0%) in 1986 to 3,661 km
2 (18.0%) in 2002 in our six county study area (
Table 3). The majority of new urban areas in our study were Deciduous and Mixed Forest (DMF) in 1986 with 1,291 km
2 DMF lost by 2002 (from 20.8 to 14.4%) and 800 km
2 lost in Grass (GR) and Agriculture (AG) classes (from 11.4 to 7.5%). While urban land cover increased steadily from 1986–2002, the loss of DMF, GR and AG was non-linear, alternating which land cover class was predominately being converted to urban land cover (
Table 3). The total area in forest (DMF, CF, CC, and REGEN) decreased between 1986 (12,420 km
2) and 2002 (11,045 km
2) with losses in Conifer Forest replaced by Clearcut and Regenerating Forest (
Table 3). Actual losses in Conifer Forest in 2002 may be masked by the larger snowpack in the 2002 TM images.
Our study found patterns similar to other recent studies. For example, Ji
et al. [
23] documented a steady increase in urban lands, from 8.7% in 1972 to 19.2% in 2002, with the conversion of lands primarily from non-forested lands for the 8,215 km
2 surrounding and containing the Kansas City metropolitan area. In the 7,000 km
2 Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, urban land increased from 23.7% to 32.8% of the total area, with losses primarily in Agriculture [
27]. Other cities surrounded primarily by forest have also seen a similar loss of forests to urban lands. For example, Boentje and Blinnikov [
28] observed between 14–35% of mature forest lost in the districts surrounding Moscow’s Green Belt from 1991 to 2001.
Table 3.
Six county study area amount (km2) and percent (%) of study area for each land cover class and three class groupings for 1986, 1991, 1995, 1999, and 2002.
Table 3.
Six county study area amount (km2) and percent (%) of study area for each land cover class and three class groupings for 1986, 1991, 1995, 1999, and 2002.
| 1986 | | 1991 | | 1995 | | 1999 | | 2002 | |
---|
| km2 | % | km2 | % | km2 | % | km2 | % | km2 | % |
---|
HIU | 252 | 1.2 | 321 | 1.6 | 385 | 1.9 | 491 | 2.4 | 639 | 3.1 |
MIU | 644 | 3.2 | 892 | 4.4 | 1,095 | 5.4 | 1,166 | 5.7 | 1,301 | 6.4 |
LIU | 720 | 3.5 | 1,085 | 5.3 | 1,248 | 6.1 | 1,431 | 7.0 | 1,706 | 8.4 |
LCD | 15 | 0.1 | 52 | 0.3 | 44 | 0.2 | 45 | 0.2 | 15 | 0.1 |
GR | 1,754 | 8.6 | 1,676 | 8.2 | 1,870 | 9.2 | 1,539 | 7.6 | 1,142 | 5.6 |
AG | 575 | 2.8 | 791 | 3.9 | 534 | 2.6 | 482 | 2.4 | 388 | 1.9 |
DMF | 4,226 | 20.8 | 3,781 | 18.6 | 3,808 | 18.7 | 3,159 | 15.5 | 2,935 | 14.4 |
CF | 6,906 | 33.9 | 6,028 | 29.6 | 5,464 | 26.8 | 5,658 | 27.8 | 5,774 | 28.4 |
CC | 714 | 3.5 | 313 | 1.5 | 295 | 1.4 | 264 | 1.3 | 775 | 3.8 |
REGEN | 574 | 2.8 | 838 | 4.1 | 1,138 | 5.6 | 1401 | 6.9 | 1,561 | 7.7 |
NFW | 108 | 0.5 | 90 | 0.4 | 90 | 0.4 | 90 | 0.4 | 90 | 0.4 |
OW | 2,553 | 12.5 | 2,666 | 13.1 | 2,638 | 13.0 | 2,576 | 12.7 | 2,626 | 12.9 |
ROCK | 1,277 | 6.3 | 1,801 | 8.8 | 1,724 | 8.5 | 2,032 | 10.0 | 1,383 | 6.8 |
SHORE | 43 | 0.2 | 27 | 0.1 | 27 | 0.1 | 27 | 0.1 | 27 | 0.1 |
Total Urban1 | 1,632 | 8.0 | 2,350 | 11.5 | 2,773 | 13.6 | 3,133 | 15.4 | 3,661 | 18.0 |
GR & AG | 2,329 | 11.4 | 2,467 | 12.1 | 2,404 | 11.8 | 2,021 | 9.9 | 1,530 | 7.5 |
Total Forest2 | 12,420 | 61.0 | 10,960 | 53.8 | 10,706 | 52.6 | 10,482 | 51.5 | 11,045 | 54.2 |
As areas become more urban, the patterns of land cover change. We were interested in documenting these changes since landscape patterns influence regional biodiversity [
19,
63,
67]. Between 1986 and 2002, urban areas spread out from the existing cities of Seattle, Bellevue, Tacoma, Olympia, Everett, and Bremerton, into the lower elevations and up canyons. Urbanization seemed to increase regardless of location within or outside of Urban Growth Boundaries with
Figure 3 showing a zoomed-in view northeast of downtown Seattle. Many new patches of urban are clearly visible in 1991 with subsequent areas often adjacent to these. Many large contiguous areas were developed between 1995–1999 and 1999-2002, clearly corresponding to the rapid growth of the area during this period.
The configuration of the landscape changed greatly between 1986 and 2002 (
Table 4) with both the number of patches and patch density of urban peaking in 1991, but mean patch size of urban increasing across the same time period, indicating a consolidation of urban patches over time. Both GR and AG and Forest patches decreased in mean size with Forest becoming more patchy (larger NP) and more irregular in shape (larger LSI). Most other metrics for GR and AG peaked in 1995, indicating a change in the overall pattern of these classes at that time. PLADJ and AI, both measures of the dispersion of patches with lower values indicating more dispersed patches of the focal class, decreased for Urban and increased for both GR and AG and for Forest (
Table 4).
The ecological implications of the change in composition (
Table 3) and configuration (
Table 4) of our study are many. Species associated with forests and/or grass and agriculture were likely reduced in regional abundance and diversity both from absolute loss of habitat area, but also through the fragmentation of remaining habitat patches (e.g., more patches but with a smaller mean patch size). The separate and potentially additive effects of habitat composition and configuration on species occupancy of sites have been well documented in a variety of taxa [
5,
68,
69,
70]. Companion studies have used these land cover maps in several studies. Hepinstall
et al. [
14] used three dates (1991, 1995, and 1999) to build and test (using 2002 land cover) a land cover change model that predicted land cover 25 years into the future. Hepinstall
et al. [
63,
71] used the 2002 land cover to develop avian species richness models and output from land cover and urban development models to predict possible changes in avian richness by 2027.
Figure 3.
Urban land cover from 1986 to 2002 showing when land transitioned to urban classes with respect to the 2002 Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB).
Figure 3.
Urban land cover from 1986 to 2002 showing when land transitioned to urban classes with respect to the 2002 Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB).
Table 4.
Basic land cover composition and configuration metrics over time (NP = number of patches, MPS = mean patch size [ha], ED = edge density [m/ha], LSI = landscape shape index, PLADJ = percentage of like adjacencies, AI = aggregation index [
56].
Table 4.
Basic land cover composition and configuration metrics over time (NP = number of patches, MPS = mean patch size [ha], ED = edge density [m/ha], LSI = landscape shape index, PLADJ = percentage of like adjacencies, AI = aggregation index [56].
| Year | NP | MPS | ED | LSI | PLADJ | AI |
Urban1 | 1986 | 77,648 | 2.1 | 22.7 | 306.4 | 77.2 | 77.3 |
| 1991 | 91,959 | 2.6 | 32.8 | 365.3 | 77.4 | 77.4 |
| 1995 | 83,847 | 3.3 | 33.4 | 348.4 | 80.2 | 80.2 |
| 1999 | 84,747 | 3.7 | 35.0 | 346.8 | 81.4 | 81.5 |
| 2002 | 78,315 | 4.7 | 34.0 | 337.4 | 83.3 | 83.3 |
GR & AG | 1986 | 236,340 | 1.0 | 38.9 | 541.7 | 66.3 | 66.4 |
| 1991 | 227,485 | 1.1 | 46.0 | 563.5 | 66.0 | 66.0 |
| 1995 | 308,332 | 0.8 | 49.7 | 630.4 | 61.4 | 61.5 |
| 1999 | 283,947 | 0.7 | 43.3 | 603.0 | 59.8 | 59.8 |
| 2002 | 257,151 | 0.6 | 31.1 | 561.2 | 56.9 | 57.0 |
Forest2 | 1986 | 71,845 | 15.5 | 33.7 | 310.1 | 91.2 | 91.2 |
| 1991 | 88,125 | 11.1 | 44.4 | 341.5 | 89.7 | 89.7 |
| 1995 | 89,814 | 10.3 | 47.0 | 367.1 | 88.6 | 88.6 |
| 1999 | 96,691 | 9.1 | 42.8 | 368.7 | 88.2 | 88.2 |
| 2002 | 106,423 | 8.2 | 37.2 | 412.7 | 86.7 | 86.8 |
Table 5.
Land cover area (km2) and percent (%) of class over time inside (first row each year) and outside (second row each year) of the 2002 Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB).
Table 5.
Land cover area (km2) and percent (%) of class over time inside (first row each year) and outside (second row each year) of the 2002 Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB).
| 1986 | 1991 | 1995 | 1999 | 2002 |
---|
| km2 | % | km2 | % | km2 | % | km2 | % | km2 | % |
---|
Urban1 | 1,166.7 | 71.5 | 1,459.0 | 62.1 | 1,635.1 | 59.0 | 1,747.6 | 55.8 | 1,883.8 | 51.5 |
| 464.9 | 28.5 | 891.4 | 37.9 | 1,138.1 | 41.0 | 1,386.0 | 44.2 | 1,777.4 | 48.5 |
GR & AG | 488.5 | 21.0 | 409.8 | 16.6 | 341.8 | 14.2 | 283.7 | 14.0 | 175.7 | 11.5 |
| 1,841.0 | 79.0 | 2,057.3 | 83.4 | 2,062.2 | 85.8 | 1,737.6 | 86.0 | 1,354.0 | 88.5 |
Forest2 | 1,007.8 | 8.1 | 794.9 | 7.3 | 689.6 | 6.4 | 635.4 | 6.1 | 606.3 | 5.5 |
| 11,412.6 | 91.9 | 10,165.7 | 92.7 | 10,016.8 | 93.6 | 9,847.2 | 93.9 | 10,438.6 | 94.5 |
In Washington State, a 1990 state law mandated the delineation of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), inside of which urban development is encouraged [
64]. We compared the area and percent of each class falling inside or outside of the 2002 UGBs and summarize our finding here for summary classes (Urban, Grass and Agriculture, and all Forest;
Table 5). While land cover changed differentially within and outside of the 2002 UGB and the total area of urban steadily increased over time, we observed an increase in the percentage of urban areas outside of the UGB from 28.5% in 1986 to 48.5% in 2002. The area in Grass and Agriculture declined greatly during this same time period, with a lower percentage inside the UGB by 2002. Both the area and percent of total forest (including Clearcut and Regenerating forests) decreased over time inside the UGB. Clearly urbanization was proceeding both inside and outside of the UGB with the change coming at the expense of both GR and AG and Forest (
Table 5).
3.3. Land Cover Accuracy Assessment
We compared class accuracy of major land cover classes (Urban, Grass and Agriculture, and Forest) for preliminary and final land cover maps (
Table 6). Overall classification accuracies for our major classes were high, ranging from 79.5 to 89% with kappa values of between 0.687 and 0.841 (
Table 6). The accuracy of Grass and Agriculture was consistently higher with our final classification often at the cost of accuracy of our final urban classes; likely because our Light Intensity Urban class represented a mixed land cover class as well as the difficulty of locating reference samples for this class. The 14-class maps had significantly higher overall accuracy (kappa) for 1986 and 1991 and significantly lower accuracy for 2002. The lower accuracy in 2002 was from a larger number of grass and agriculture reference sites being classified as urban classes (
Appendix A). The application of landscape trajectories for 2002 improved user’s accuracy for some classes and producer’s accuracy for others (
Table 6,
Appendix A). For 2002 the use of landscape trajectory rules for urban classes may have overestimated the amount of urban land; however it is also possible that the photo interpretation underestimated the true extent of the Light Intensity Urban class.
We also generated error matrices showing the number of reference sites and user’s and producer’s accuracy for the preliminary 9-class datasets and 14-class datasets regrouped to match the 9-class datasets (
Appendix A). Our final classification consistently did a better job at correctly classifying our reference sites and not over-classifying (
i.e., commission errors) for all classes except Light Intensity Urban (User’s Accuracy;
Appendix A). Heavy Intensity Urban, Medium Intensity Urban, Grass, Agriculture, and Clearcut user’s accuracies were substantially higher after applying the landscape trajectory rules. In addition, Clearcut and Regenerating Forest and Agriculture/Bare Soil were mapped with much higher accuracy in our final classification than in our preliminary classification (Producer’s Accuracy:
Appendix A). Total accuracy ranged from 50.3% to 73.3%, was lowest for 1986 maps and was consistently higher for the final versus preliminary classifications (significantly higher for 1986, 1991, 1995, and 2002), indicating the landscape trajectory rules improved the overall accuracy of the maps (
Appendix A). Previous studies have had similar success in using multi-date land cover maps and temporal rules to improve classification accuracies [
12,
43].
Because we did not apply any majority filters to our final land cover maps, our Light Intensity Urban pixels were often interspersed with Grass and Forest classes, making comparisons with the 90 m reference dataset difficult. In addition to the traditional accuracy assessment presented above, we tallied the number of pixels in each reference cell that were classified as Heavy, Medium, or Light Intensity Urban for our 2002 map. Using this methodology, we observed a much higher agreement between our classification and the reference data set (
Table 7). For Light Intensity Urban, over 70% of our reference sites had a least one of nine pixels classified as Light Intensity Urban, our most heterogeneous urban class. Medium and Heavy Intensity Urban had a higher proportion of reference sites with clear majorities (74% and 90%, respectively). Previous attempts at pixel-based classification have also found high error rates (especially errors of commission) when attempting to classify areas of low density urban development [
30].
Table 6.
Class accuracy assessment (user’s and producer’s, total and Kappa-adjusted accuracy, and significance difference between two classifications at alpha 0.05) for three land cover class groupings for the preliminary and final land cover maps. For individual class accuracies see
Appendix A.
Table 6.
Class accuracy assessment (user’s and producer’s, total and Kappa-adjusted accuracy, and significance difference between two classifications at alpha 0.05) for three land cover class groupings for the preliminary and final land cover maps. For individual class accuracies see Appendix A.
Classified | Reference Data | Reference Data |
---|
Data | Preliminary (9 Class) | Final (14 Class) |
---|
1986 | Urban | Grass & Ag | Forest | User's | Urban | Grass & Ag | Forest | User's |
Urban | 578 | 97 | 8 | 84.6 | 495 | 37 | 4 | 92.4 |
Grass & Ag | 111 | 319 | 53 | 66.0 | 151 | 436 | 31 | 70.6 |
Forest | 99 | 111 | 966 | 82.1 | 109 | 48 | 976 | 86.1 |
Producer's | 73.4 | 60.5 | 94.1 | | 65.6 | 83.7 | 96.5 | |
Total | | | | 79.6 | | | | 83.4 |
Kappa | | | | 0.678 | | | | 0.741* |
1991 | Urban | Grass & Ag | Forest | User's | Urban | Grass & Ag | Forest | User's |
Urban | 830 | 44 | 12 | 93.7 | 812 | 30 | 12 | 95.1 |
Grass & Ag | 44 | 148 | 83 | 53.8 | 44 | 178 | 72 | 60.5 |
Forest | 63 | 23 | 602 | 87.5 | 56 | 7 | 601 | 90.5 |
Producer's | 88.6 | 68.8 | 86.4 | | 89.0 | 82.8 | 87.7 | |
Total | | | | 85.5 | | | | 87.8 |
Kappa | | | | 0.757 | | | | 0.800* |
1995 | Urban | Grass & Ag | Forest | User's | Urban | Grass & Ag | Forest | User's |
Urban | 673 | 76 | 8 | 88.9 | 685 | 78 | 8 | 88.8 |
Grass & Ag | 36 | 457 | 46 | 84.8 | 20 | 427 | 25 | 90.5 |
Forest | 48 | 38 | 712 | 89.2 | 46 | 50 | 730 | 88.4 |
Producer's | 88.9 | 80.0 | 93.0 | | 91.2 | 76.9 | 95.7 | |
Total | | | | 88.0 | | | | 89.0 |
Kappa | | | | 0.818 | | | | 0.833 |
1999 | Urban | Grass & Ag | Forest | User's | Urban | Grass & Ag | Forest | User's |
Urban | 402 | 63 | 2 | 86.1 | 426 | 94 | 6 | 81.0 |
Grass & Ag | 20 | 288 | 8 | 91.1 | 2 | 226 | 10 | 95.0 |
Forest | 17 | 25 | 463 | 91.7 | 13 | 36 | 455 | 90.3 |
Producer's | 91.6 | 76.6 | 97.9 | | 96.6 | 63.5 | 96.6 | |
Total | | | | 89.5 | | | | 87.3 |
Kappa | | | | 0.841 | | | | 0.806* |
2002 | Urban | Grass & Ag | Forest | User's | Urban | Grass & Ag | Forest | User's |
Urban | 808 | 90 | 16 | 88.4 | 871 | 229 | 38 | 76.5 |
Grass & Ag | 30 | 553 | 89 | 82.3 | 1 | 383 | 19 | 95.0 |
Forest | 35 | 70 | 905 | 89.6 | 16 | 75 | 928 | 91.1 |
Producer's | 92.6 | 77.6 | 89.6 | | 98.1 | 55.7 | 94.2 | |
Total | | | | 87.3 | | | | 85.2 |
Kappa | | | | 0.807 | | | | 0.773*1 |
Table 7.
Accuracy of urban classes (Heavy, Medium, Light) using a cutoff of number of pixels from 1 to a ≥ 5 (a clear majority) of 9 pixels in each 90 m × 90 m reference assessment polygon for the final 2002 land cover map.
Table 7.
Accuracy of urban classes (Heavy, Medium, Light) using a cutoff of number of pixels from 1 to a ≥ 5 (a clear majority) of 9 pixels in each 90 m × 90 m reference assessment polygon for the final 2002 land cover map.
| Heavy | Medium | Light |
---|
Cutoff | (N = 279) | (N = 339) | (N = 288) |
---|
1 | 95.3 | 92.6 | 70.5 |
2 | 94.6 | 88.5 | 61.8 |
3 | 94.3 | 86.4 | 56.6 |
4 | 91.8 | 80.2 | 50.0 |
≥ 5 | 90.3 | 73.5 | 40.6 |
3.4. Limitations of Approach and Future Directions
Our hybrid approach to classifying medium resolution multi-spectral satellite imagery in heterogeneous urban environments proved successful in that we were able to map three intensities of urban land and differentiate between bare soil cleared for development, agriculture, or forest harvesting with high levels of accuracy. However, there are limitations and assumptions inherent in our approach. For example, when conducting spectral unmixing, some of the literature regarding end member selection suggests using the extreme pixels that bound all other pixels in image feature space, but this requires that these pixels represent pure pixels and not statistical outliers which would skew results [
37]. Locating spectral end members for urban surfaces, however, presents a unique problem in that there is a tremendous degree of spectral variance among urban reflectance. Previous research has shown that pure impervious surfaces tend to lie along an axis of low to high albedo spectrum. As a result, pure urban pixels often exist without actually being end members because they fall somewhere between low and high albedo (non-vegetation) end members [
38,
72,
73]. If an urban pixel does contain bare soil, this component will most likely be modeled as shade and impervious surface during the unmixing. Using a low albedo end member as an impervious proxy will most likely model this shade component as impervious surface, when in reality it cannot be determined whether the shade is caused by a building, tree or is in fact part of the impervious surface spectra [
74].
Bare soil, similarly, did not seem to exist as a truly distinct urban end member in spectral space, but rather exists along the vector containing urban at one end and shade/water at the other. This vector extended from high albedo bare soil/urban surface through low albedo bare soil/urban surface and finally to water. The pixels along this plane (except for water pixels at the end of the plane) are some combination of urban surface, bare soil and shade. Because we used a supervised classification that separated 100% bare soil from urban pixels, we assumed that most bare soil pixels in the image were already classified and removed from the analysis in a previous step. Furthermore, because the shade fraction image was used to derive impervious estimates, urban pixels along this plane would be estimated at close to 100 percent impervious. Pixels that contain both impervious surface and bare soil, however, were likely difficult to detect.
Another possible limitation of our results concerns our reference data. The reference data sets were interpreted without the benefit of stereo pairs and in the case of 1986, were in black and white. Because the reference data were derived from aerial photographs with differing spectral and spatial resolutions, some classes may have been interpreted differently across time. For example, differentiating between deciduous, mixed, and coniferous forest was more problematic with the older imagery. In addition, precisely matching the three classes of urban across time was problematic for the photo interpreter.
Several of our classes were added to our land cover map through the use of ancillary GIS data layers. Each of these classes, therefore, has their own temporal relevance and location errors. For this reason, we used only GIS data for classes that were unlikely to change significantly over our study time period. Roads were not used to aid in classifying urban classes because there was likely significant change in roads between 1986 and 2002 and the only available spatial dataset depicted roads as of 2001 for our study area.
Previous studies have measured the patterns of urban development change over time (e.g., [
75]). We used both multi-season imagery for each date and rules of landscape trajectory to differentiate those bare soil pixels that represented agriculture, clearcuts, or land cleared for development. A recent study exploring the increase in impervious surface over time used temporal rules to improve classification accuracy [
40]. Another recent study used classification techniques (Principal Components Analysis) on multiple dates of imagery to improve the classification of landscape change [
76]. Future work needs to determine how applying post-classification rules of change may influence pattern measurements and introduce errors of a different type into classified maps [
77,
78].
We used dates of imagery that were three to five years apart because of image availability. For this region, where urbanization was an important process driving landscape change, this time interval was large enough for measurable change to have occurred. Shorter time periods may have been too short to observe change and longer time intervals may have masked changes especially in Medium and Light Intensity Urban classes where vegetation re-growth over time may mask the amount of impervious surfaces present. In addition, the number of time steps increases the ability to use landscape trajectories. Our inferences for the first and last dates were limited to including data only after or only before, respectively, the target date. Longer time spans would allow further separation of land cover types with high temporal variability (e.g., agriculture, urbanization, forest harvesting and re-growth).
Measuring the accuracy of land cover change presented several challenges. For one, it is difficult to select sites of land cover change before completing a classification. The simplest estimate of accuracy of land cover change is to multiply the individual class accuracies between two dates [
27]. It is also possible to report the individual class accuracies of only those areas that changed or to compare aggregate measures of change versus no change. Because we had an insufficient number of reference sites available for the same location between sequential land cover maps, we were unable to directly measure the accuracy of land cover change over time.
4. Conclusions
Urban land cover in the Central Puget Sound increased dramatically between 1986 and 2002, often at the expense of forestlands. In addition, grass and agricultural areas have declined in extent. Urban patches also grew in size and became less dispersed as individual patches expanded and coalesced into larger patches. Patches of forests, grass, and agriculture all became smaller and more dispersed. Urban development has increased disproportionally in areas where development regulations were expected to limit or even reduce development. Urban land cover outside of the Urban Growth Boundaries grew from 2.6% of our land area in 1986 to 10.0% in 2002, whereas it grew from 6.7% to 10.6% of the area inside of the Urban Growth boundaries between 1986 and 2002, respectively. A more in-depth analysis of the trends in land cover change with respect to urban growth management is currently underway.
Our hybrid methods and landscape trajectory rules improved our accuracy in separating mixed classes. Segmenting vegetation and impervious surfaces increased our ability to extract impervious areas within the mixed urban classes, as observed in previous studies (e.g., [
79]). Multi-season imagery assisted in the differentiation of forest types and agriculture. Multi-date imagery allowed for the development of landscape trajectory rules, which allowed for the separation of bare soil into clearcut forest, agriculture, and cleared for new development and corrected for mis-classifications in different intensities of urban classes across multiple dates.
The observed changes in our study area have profound economic and ecological implications. The ability to map these changes is the first step in many ecological analyses, especially those involving mapping wildlife habitat. Several studies have already used these maps to build models of land cover change [
14], avian diversity [
63,
71,
80], and scenario planning [
81]. Access to a temporal sequence of land cover maps for large regions is important for measuring change, calculating benchmarks of sustainable development [
28], and many other applications. Land cover data such as ours also can be used to calculate other “sprawl indices” (e.g., [
23]) and analyze more complex landscape patterns and change [
23,
82,
83].