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Open AccessArticle
Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Upper Reach of Jialing River, China
by
Weizhao Shi
Weizhao Shi 1,2,†,
Yi He
Yi He 1,2,*,†
and
Yiting Shao
Yiting Shao 3
1
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China
2
Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi’an 710127, China
3
School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Hangzhou 310018, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Remote Sens. 2024, 16(13), 2481; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16132481 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 9 May 2024
/
Revised: 25 June 2024
/
Accepted: 4 July 2024
/
Published: 6 July 2024
Abstract
In recent years, the runoff of numerous rivers has experienced substantial changes owing to the dual influences of climate change and human activities. This study focuses on the Lixian hydrological station’s controlled basin, located in the upper reaches of the Jialing River in China. The objective is to assess and quantify the impacts of human activities and climate change on runoff variations. This study analyzed runoff variations from 1960 to 2016 and employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and eight Budyko framework formulations to assess factors influencing runoff. Additionally, it used the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) and SWAT models to simulate future runoff scenarios under various conditions. The results indicate the following. (1) The study area has witnessed a significant decline in runoff (p < 0.01), while potential evapotranspiration shows a significant upward trend (p < 0.01). Precipitation displays a nonsignificant decreasing trend (p > 0.1). An abrupt change point in runoff occurred in 1994, dividing the study period into baseline and change periods. (2) The Budyko results reveal that human activities contributed 50% to 60% to runoff changes. According to the SWAT and LSTM models, the contribution rates of human activities are 63.21% and 52.22%, respectively. Human activities are thus identified as the predominant factor in the decline in runoff. (3) Human activities primarily influence runoff through land cover changes. Conservation measures led to a notable increase in forested areas from 1990 to 2010, representing the most significant change among land types. (4) Future land use scenarios suggest that the highest simulated runoff occurs under a comprehensive development scenario, while the lowest is observed under an ecological conservation scenario. Among the 32 future climate scenarios, runoff increases significantly with a 10% increase in precipitation and decreases substantially with a 15% reduction in precipitation. These findings underscore the significant impact of human activities and climate change on runoff variations in the upper reaches of the Jialing River, highlighting the importance of incorporating both factors in water resource management and planning.
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MDPI and ACS Style
Shi, W.; He, Y.; Shao, Y.
Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Upper Reach of Jialing River, China. Remote Sens. 2024, 16, 2481.
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16132481
AMA Style
Shi W, He Y, Shao Y.
Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Upper Reach of Jialing River, China. Remote Sensing. 2024; 16(13):2481.
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16132481
Chicago/Turabian Style
Shi, Weizhao, Yi He, and Yiting Shao.
2024. "Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Upper Reach of Jialing River, China" Remote Sensing 16, no. 13: 2481.
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16132481
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