2.1. Performance Analysis of Ionospheric Degradation Parameters
Ionospheric degradation parameters, defined as an integrity threshold, are designed to encapsulate and mitigate ionospheric delay errors. This capability ensures compliance with APV-I’s performance criteria for integrity services. The research presented in this paper indicates that with BDSBAS degradation parameters
set at 0.952 and
at 0, the probability of exceeding the threshold for BDSBAS remained relatively low in 2021. However, as ionospheric activity has increased in recent years, the probability of integrity parameter leakage has risen annually. The frequency of ionospheric variations
exceeding the threshold
has also increased. The threshold of ionospheric delay change is determined by the ionospheric degradation parameter in Equation (1), as follows:
The parameters
,
and
, in Equation (1) have different fixed values in different systems. The specific values are shown in
Table 1. In the previous paragraph,
represents the difference in the same grid points delays between the two adjacent epochs, as follows:
The probability of ionospheric grid delay variations exceeding the threshold can be calculated by Equation (3), as follows:
In Equation (3), is the total number of the epoch and is the total number of ionospheric grid points. is the variation in ionospheric delay at the grid point on the epoch .
This study selects a grid point at 15°N latitude and 100°E longitude, a region of high ionospheric activity, for detailed analysis. The ionospheric delay variation envelope for the first day of each year from 2021 to 2024 in BDSBAS is shown in
Figure 1. The horizontal axis is in hours and the vertical axis is in meters, the blue dots represent the ionospheric delay variation between adjacent epochs at this grid point from 2021 to 2024, and the red line indicates the variation threshold
. It is equal to
because
is the fixed value 0.
In 2021, the degradation parameter threshold nearly encompassed all ionospheric delay variations, as shown in
Figure 1a. However, as ionospheric activity intensified in 2022,
Figure 1b shows that the degradation parameter could no longer fully envelop the actual variation in ionospheric delay; the probability of exceeding the threshold increased further in 2023 and 2024, as shown in
Figure 1c,d.
Table 4 provides more detailed data on the annual probability of exceeding the limits calculated by Equation (3) from 2021 to 2024 for BDSBAS, EGNOS, MSAS, and WAAS. The probability of exceeding the threshold for BDSBAS and MSAS has increased greatly, whereas EGNOS and WAAS have shown no significant rise. This discrepancy is likely due to the higher proportion of low-latitude regions in China, where ionospheric anomalies have a greater impact [
18,
19,
20]. In contrast, EGNOS and WAAS operate in regions with fewer ionospheric anomalies [
21].
The daily probability of exceeding the threshold for BDSBAS and MSAS from 2021 to 2024 is shown
Figure 2. The vertical axis represents the probability of exceeding the threshold, while the horizontal axis indicates the number of days. The exceeding threshold rate of MSAS is generally higher than that of BDSBAS, with both showing synchronized variations. The probability of ionospheric changes in both BDSBAS and MSAS exceeding the degradation parameter threshold increases over time. This trend reflects the growing impact of increased solar activity on China and the surrounding region.
To further investigate the relationship between ionospheric anomalies and the exceeding threshold rate, as well as their connection to solar activity, a time-series analysis of the BDSBAS exceeding threshold rate and sunspot number (SSN) from 2021 to 2024 was conducted. In
Figure 3, the daily exceeding threshold rate is plotted on the left vertical axis, and SSN is plotted on the right vertical axis, with the horizontal axis representing the number of days. SSN, derived from sunspot counts, is a widely used index for quantifying solar activity [
22]. It is strongly correlated with most solar activity indicators and serves as a key driver of ionospheric variations [
23].
The proportion of ionospheric delay variations exceeding the threshold has risen annually, as shown in
Figure 3. The exceeding threshold rate of ionospheric degradation parameters correlates with ionospheric activity, which in turn is influenced by solar activity. While SSN and total electron content (TEC) exhibit a strong long-term correlation, their short-term correlation is weaker. Both SSN and the over-limit rate exhibit oscillatory increases over four years; however, local correlations vary due to factors such as geomagnetic variations [
21,
24]. Additionally, the solar activity index reveals hysteresis and saturation effects in TEC, where TEC values during the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle differ despite similar levels of solar activity. Saturation implies that beyond a certain threshold, increasing solar activity does not proportionally increase TEC [
25,
26]. Overall, solar activity and ionospheric changes exhibit a strong correlation.
A statistical analysis of ionospheric grid points in the BDSBAS service area was conducted to examine the exceeding threshold probability across different latitude bands.
Figure 4 illustrates the changes in exceeding the threshold daily probability from 2021 to 2024 for latitudes between 5° and 55°. The horizontal axis is in days, and the vertical axis shows the probability of exceeding the threshold. The changes in exceeding the threshold probability vary across latitude bands, with an overall cyclical upward trend displaying seasonal periodicity; it is especially conspicuous in low-latitude areas.
Figure 5 summarizes the relationship between latitude and the probability of exceeding the threshold. The horizontal axis is in latitudes and the vertical axis shows the probability of exceeding the threshold. The lowest probability occurs at the 40° latitude and increases toward the edges, with more significant issues in low-latitude areas. The ionosphere is particularly active below the 35° latitude, directly affecting ionospheric degradation parameters and, consequently, service availability and integrity. Therefore, during periods of ionospheric activity, its impact on the integrity in southern China is significantly heightened.
To assess the impact of ionospheric activity on service performance, BDSBAS service data from 2022 and 2023 were analyzed, focusing on enhanced positioning, protection levels, and service availability. The positioning performance and protection levels of selected IGS stations were evaluated using degradation parameters. The algorithm of the protection level refers to the RTCA [
27]. Present service availability statistics for the WUH2 station from DOY (day of the year) 001–003 in 2022 are shown in
Figure 6, showing the service availability of WUH2 station from DOY 001–003 in 2023, where blue represents the Horizontal Protection Level, yellow denotes the Horizontal Position Error, and red marks the Protection Level threshold, with the horizontal axis in days and the vertical axis in meters. The figures indicate that while positioning errors remained stable, the probability of integrity and misleading information events increases. In addition, the increased protection level can lead to reduced availability in areas with larger protection levels.
The service availability maps in the China region for DOY 001–015 in 2022 and 2023 are shown in
Figure 7. The color axis denotes service availability; the horizontal axis is the latitude, and the vertical axis is precision. This shows a decline in single-frequency enhancement service performance in 2023. This decline is particularly pronounced in lower-latitude regions, where ionospheric activity is higher.
The data in
Table 5 compare BDSBAS service metrics between 2022 and 2023 when broadcasting a fixed degradation parameter value. Performance metrics include enhanced positioning, protection levels, service availability, and integrity risk, using select International GNSS Service observation stations as examples. The table presents differences between the 2023 and 2022 results, with positive values indicating increases and negative values indicating decreases. Each statistical period starts on January 1st, May 1st, and September 1st, covering 15 days.
Table 5 shows the decline in service availability located in edge-service areas in 2023 compared to 2022. Additionally, some misleading information (MI) events are present and the probability of hazardous misleading information (HMI) events remains consistently zero in 2023, particularly in the vertical direction, due to ionospheric influences.
2.2. New Calculation Method of Ionospheric Degradation Parameters
The current method for BDSBAS broadcasting ionospheric degradation parameters is as follows: Set as a fixed value of 0.952; set as a fixed value of 240; set as a fixed value of 0; and set as 0. Due to the current ionospheric activity, the predefined threshold for ionospheric variations in the degradation parameter fails to fully encompass actual ionospheric delay changes. This paper proposes a new algorithm for determining the broadcast value of the ionospheric degradation parameter.
Real-time calculation of ionospheric grid point vertical delay values is possible through observations from evenly distributed monitoring stations utilizing a dual-frequency approach to correct ionospheric errors. Consequently, this method enables fitting vertical delay parameters at grid points, relying on ionospheric delay measurements at piercing points.
Initially, dual-frequency analysis is used to extract high-precision ionospheric delay values at piercing points, as follows:
In Equation (4), denotes frequency and represents corrected pseudo-range observations.
Ionospheric delays are determined for piercing points within four quadrants around grid points, based on their distances from the grid points. If a minimum of three piercing points exist within a 5° radius
of a grid point
, an inverse-distance-weighted fitting for zenith ionospheric delay is performed, considering the spherical geometry, as follows:
In Equation (5), is the vertical delay of the ionosphere grid point , is the vertical delay of the piercing point . and are the ionospheric delay values for the grid point and ionospheric piercing point . and are the weights assigned to piercing points and in relation to grid point .
is defined as the reciprocal of the distance from the piercing point
to the grid point
, as follows:
In Equation (6), denotes the Earth’s radius, refers to the latitude and longitude of the piercing point, and indicates the latitude and longitude of the grid point.
According to the change in ionospheric grid delay between the adjacent epoch
by Equation (2), the new degradation parameters are calculated according to Equation (7), as follows:
In Equation (7), the
is the maximum ionospheric grid delay increments at all valid ionospheric grid points determined for each epoch. The
and
are specified by the RTCA [
27], as follows:
The is determined by the maximum ionospheric grid delay increment of the delay values from all real-time valid ionospheric grid points. If the is less than the maximum specified by the RTCA protocol, then is broadcast and the is set to 0. If exceeds the maximum specified by the RTCA protocol, the is broadcast directly, and is broadcast within the maximum range specified by the RTCA protocol to envelop . Additionally, is set to the actual update cycle of the ionospheric grid, which is 240 s, and the ionospheric square root and factor parameter is set to 1. The degradation parameters are synchronized with the ionospheric delay update time, which is also 240 s.
In recent years, ionospheric activity has led to frequent large variations in the ionospheric grid delay between consecutive epochs. Directly setting the maximum ionospheric delay change to meet the envelope requirement is therefore unreasonable. In this study, large ionospheric grid delay jumps were excluded to ensure service integrity. However, frequent meter-level ionospheric delay jumps may reduce availability while maintaining integrity. Despite this, integrity remains ensured with the application of degradation parameters.