Estimating Coffee Plant Yield Based on Multispectral Images and Machine Learning Models
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Coffe Yield Data Collection
2.3. Multispectral Data Collection
2.4. Multispectral Data Processing
2.5. Remote Sensing Data Extraction and Calculation of Vegetation Indices
2.6. Descriptive and Exploratory Yield Analysis
2.7. Generation of Prediction Models and Quality Control
2.8. Analysis of Multispectral Model Accuracy in Predicting Yield
3. Results
3.1. Characterization of the Study Area: Exploratory Analysis of Yield Data
3.2. Statistical Analysis of the Agronomic Parameters
3.3. Analysis of the Correlation between Yield and Multispectral Bands and Their Derived Indices
3.4. Analysis of the Performance of Predictive and Forecast Models
3.5. Time-Space Distribution of Yield
4. Discussion
5. Study Limitations and Future Perspectives
6. Conclusions
- The Sentinel 2 satellite images were favorable in estimating coffee yield. Despite their low spatial resolution in estimating agricultural variables below the canopy, specific bands such as the red edge, mid-infrared and derived vegetation indices act as a countermeasure to this limitation.
- The blue band and GNDVI vegetation index showed the highest correlation with yield, but the low accuracy exhibited by the spectral models demonstrated the need to predict yield from non-parametrized algorithms. Additionally, other indices that also displayed significant correlations (CI_G and MCARI) indicate that leaf pigmentation and biomass remain a reasonable method to estimate coffee yield.
- After a data mining process, the NN algorithm exhibited the highest and lowest trend in predicting and forecasting yield.
- The high coefficients of determination showed the capacity of the spectral model to accurately estimate the spatial distribution of high and low-yield areas.
- The yield distribution maps demonstrated the sensitivity of spectral models to the biotic and abiotic factors present in the crop.
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Index | Equation | RMSE |
---|---|---|
NDRE | [31] | |
NDVI | [32] | |
GNDVI | [33] | |
CI-RE | [34] | |
MCARI | [35] | |
TCARI | [36] | |
RVI | [37] | |
SAVI | [38] | |
CVI | [39] | |
CI-G | [34] |
Yield | Minimum | Q1 | Median | Q3 | Maximum | CV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 95.4 | 169.2 | 265.2 | 445.2 | 802.2 | 91.5% |
2018 | 3.900 | 4.830 | 5.454 | 6148.8 | 7319.4 | 90.2 |
2019 | 78.9 | 472.8 | 1003.2 | 1852.2 | 2672.4 | 92.3 |
Parameters | Means | Standard Deviations | CV (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Yield | 42.98 | 39.17 | 91.14 |
173.53 | 53.46 | 30.81 | |
345.20 | 72.42 | 20.98 | |
303.56 | 130.21 | 42.89 | |
688.40 | 146.90 | 21.35 | |
2078.00 | 119.10 | 5.73 | |
2811.60 | 140.90 | 5.01 | |
2766.90 | 127.90 | 4.62 | |
3035.50 | 157.10 | 5.18 | |
1561.70 | 288.10 | 18.45 | |
822.70 | 264.00 | 32.09 |
Band/Index | Correlation | Coefficient of Determination |
---|---|---|
0.72 | 53.00 | |
0.65 | 43.00 | |
MCARI | 0.55 | 29.30 |
0.50 | 24.60 | |
0.46 | 24.60 | |
0.41 | 13.80 | |
0.40 | 12.80 | |
0.33 | 10.50 | |
0.16 | 2.10 | |
0.06 | 0.00 | |
0.05 | 0.00 | |
SAVI | −0.34 | 10.70 |
NDVI | −0.34 | 10.70 |
RVI | −0.37 | 13.20 |
TCARI | −0.45 | 20.00 |
NDRE | −0.48 | 22.70 |
CI_RE | −0.49 | 23.40 |
CVI | −0.52 | 26.60 |
CI_G | −0.60 | 35.90 |
GNDVI | −0.62 | 38.30 |
P.S. | RF | SVM | LR | NN | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMSE% | MAPE% | R² | RMSE% | MAPE% | R² | RMSE% | MAPE% | R² | RMSE% | MAPE% | R² | |
Test 80% | 27 | 23 | 0.81 | 37 | 33 | 0.75 | 39 | 34 | 0.68 | 27 | 23 | 0.81 |
Test 85% | 27 | 23 | 0.81 | 35 | 30 | 0.75 | 38 | 32 | 0.67 | 23 | 20 | 0.82 |
Test 90% | 28 | 24 | 0.80 | 36 | 31 | 0.75 | 39 | 39 | 0.68 | 36 | 27 | 0.75 |
Y.P. 2020 | 32 | 38 | 41 | 27 |
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Abreu Júnior, C.A.M.d.; Martins, G.D.; Xavier, L.C.M.; Vieira, B.S.; Gallis, R.B.d.A.; Fraga Junior, E.F.; Martins, R.S.; Paes, A.P.B.; Mendonça, R.C.P.; Lima, J.V.d.N. Estimating Coffee Plant Yield Based on Multispectral Images and Machine Learning Models. Agronomy 2022, 12, 3195. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12123195
Abreu Júnior CAMd, Martins GD, Xavier LCM, Vieira BS, Gallis RBdA, Fraga Junior EF, Martins RS, Paes APB, Mendonça RCP, Lima JVdN. Estimating Coffee Plant Yield Based on Multispectral Images and Machine Learning Models. Agronomy. 2022; 12(12):3195. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12123195
Chicago/Turabian StyleAbreu Júnior, Carlos Alberto Matias de, George Deroco Martins, Laura Cristina Moura Xavier, Bruno Sérgio Vieira, Rodrigo Bezerra de Araújo Gallis, Eusimio Felisbino Fraga Junior, Rafaela Souza Martins, Alice Pedro Bom Paes, Rafael Cordeiro Pereira Mendonça, and João Victor do Nascimento Lima. 2022. "Estimating Coffee Plant Yield Based on Multispectral Images and Machine Learning Models" Agronomy 12, no. 12: 3195. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12123195