Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on North Indian Ocean Cyclone Intensity
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methodology
2.1. Data
2.2. Methodology
- All the cyclonic systems which are Depressions (D) and above (231);
- Deep Depressions (DD) and above (229);
- Cyclonic Storms (CS) and above (222);
- Severe Cyclonic Storms (SCS) and above (130);
- Very Severe Cyclonic Storms (VSCS) and above (74);
- Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms (ESCS) and above (34);
- Super Cyclonic Storms (SUCS) (15).
3. Results
- Those that have formed over the ocean and dissipated over the land (Figure 2a);
- Those that have formed over the ocean and dissipated over the oceans with and without crossing the land (Figure 2b);
- Those that formed over the land moved to the ocean and dissipated (Figure 2c);
- Those that have formed over land and moved to land after passing over oceans and dissipated over land. The number of cyclones of these four types are 142, 82, 4 and 3, respectively.
4. Summary and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Parameter | R-Squared | F-Statistics | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|
RMM2 | 0.058 | 42.45 | 0.00 |
Month | 0.041 | 34.21 | 0.00 |
Amplitude | 0.040 | 34.03 | 0.00 |
Day | 0.017 | 12.17 | 0.00 |
RMM1 | 0.014 | 11.84 | 0.00 |
Phase | 0.010 | 9.95 | 0.00 |
Percent Change (%) | D (720) | DD (505) | CS (394) | SCS (180) | VSCS (94) | ESCS (39) | SUCS (8) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
−80 to −60 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
−60 to −40 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
−40 to −20 | 8.89 | 9.50 | 8.88 | 6.67 | 8.51 | 17.95 | 0.00 |
−20 to 0 | 47.22 | 50.89 | 52.28 | 50.56 | 43.62 | 25.64 | 12.50 |
0 to 20 | 33.19 | 30.69 | 29.19 | 30.00 | 29.79 | 33.33 | 25.00 |
20 to 40 | 7.22 | 6.73 | 8.12 | 11.11 | 14.89 | 17.95 | 62.50 |
40 to 60 | 1.81 | 0.99 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
60 to 80 | 0.97 | 1.19 | 1.02 | 1.11 | 2.13 | 5.13 | 0.00 |
All | Validation | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Count | RMSE (Knots) | SI | Count | RMSE (Knots) | SI | |
D | 4805 | 18.26 | 0.45 | 720 | 18.38 | 0.45 |
DD | 3369 | 17.66 | 0.38 | 505 | 19.25 | 0.41 |
CS | 2627 | 18.07 | 0.34 | 394 | 19.16 | 0.36 |
SCS | 1201 | 17.19 | 0.24 | 180 | 17.08 | 0.24 |
VSCS | 629 | 15.14 | 0.17 | 94 | 13.66 | 0.16 |
ESCS | 261 | 9.87 | 0.09 | 39 | 10.22 | 0.09 |
SUCS | 59 | 5.69 | 0.04 | 8 | 4.38 | 0.03 |
All Phases | |||||||||
Scatter Index (SI) | Number of Points | Correlation Coefficient | |||||||
Category/Phase | All | ≥1 | ≥1.5 | ≥2 | All | ≥1 | ≥1.5 | ≥2 | All |
D | 0.485 | 0.476 | 0.467 | 0.323 | 720 | 457 | 255 | 110 | 0.431 |
DD | 0.428 | 0.428 | 0.383 | 0.278 | 505 | 328 | 189 | 84 | 0.423 |
CS | 0.381 | 0.387 | 0.345 | 0.264 | 394 | 253 | 148 | 66 | 0.427 |
SCS | 0.271 | 0.263 | 0.208 | 0.138 | 180 | 118 | 76 | 33 | 0.467 |
VSCS | 0.183 | 0.152 | 0.149 | 0.085 | 94 | 63 | 40 | 21 | 0.638 |
Phases—1, 2, 3, 4 | |||||||||
Scatter Index (SI) | Number of Points | Correlation Coefficient | |||||||
Category/Phase | All | ≥1 | ≥1.5 | ≥2 | All | ≥1 | ≥1.5 | ≥2 | All |
D | 0.473 | 0.463 | 0.447 | 0.430 | 432 | 291 | 170 | 77 | 0.435 |
DD | 0.408 | 0.396 | 0.352 | 0.252 | 310 | 217 | 130 | 58 | 0.503 |
CS | 0.370 | 0.342 | 0.310 | 0.248 | 240 | 166 | 102 | 43 | 0.478 |
SCS | 0.255 | 0.259 | 0.206 | 0.134 | 110 | 74 | 50 | 21 | 0.605 |
VSCS | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.121 | 0.055 | 53 | 35 | 24 | 13 | 0.705 |
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Ali, M.M.; Tanusha, U.N.; Chand, C.P.; Himasri, B.; Bourassa, M.A.; Zheng, Y. Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on North Indian Ocean Cyclone Intensity. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1554. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121554
Ali MM, Tanusha UN, Chand CP, Himasri B, Bourassa MA, Zheng Y. Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on North Indian Ocean Cyclone Intensity. Atmosphere. 2021; 12(12):1554. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121554
Chicago/Turabian StyleAli, M. M., Uppalapati Naga Tanusha, C. Purna Chand, Borra Himasri, Mark A. Bourassa, and Yangxing Zheng. 2021. "Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on North Indian Ocean Cyclone Intensity" Atmosphere 12, no. 12: 1554. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121554