Author Contributions
Conceptualization, R.M.; methodology, R.M.; software, R.M.; validation, R.M.; formal analysis, R.M.; investigation, R.M.; resources, R.M.; data curation, R.M.; writing—original draft preparation, R.M.; writing—review and editing, M.S.; visualization, R.M.; supervision, M.S.; project administration, M.S.; funding acquisition, M.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Figure 1.
Proposed novel modeling approach for evaluating the probable climate change impact on the water resource system. Note: HBV is the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning rainfall–runoff model.
Figure 1.
Proposed novel modeling approach for evaluating the probable climate change impact on the water resource system. Note: HBV is the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning rainfall–runoff model.
Figure 2.
The basin location example included the hydro-climatic gauging station sites.
Figure 2.
The basin location example included the hydro-climatic gauging station sites.
Figure 3.
Comparison between observed monthly (mean and standard deviation (SD)) precipitation (P) and the corresponding values generated by LARS-WG7 at each meteorological station within the studied basin for the period 1980–2010.
Figure 3.
Comparison between observed monthly (mean and standard deviation (SD)) precipitation (P) and the corresponding values generated by LARS-WG7 at each meteorological station within the studied basin for the period 1980–2010.
Figure 4.
Comparison between the observed mean monthly (maximum (Tmin) and minimum (Tmax) temperatures and the corresponding values generated by LARS-WG7 at each meteorological station within the studied basin for the period 1980–2010.
Figure 4.
Comparison between the observed mean monthly (maximum (Tmin) and minimum (Tmax) temperatures and the corresponding values generated by LARS-WG7 at each meteorological station within the studied basin for the period 1980–2010.
Figure 5.
Values of the monthly means of the minimum and maximum air temperature and precipitation (a) Tmin; (b) Tmax; (c) P, respectively, during the 1980–2010, 2010–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099 period, downscaled by seven assembly general circulation models (GCMs).
Figure 5.
Values of the monthly means of the minimum and maximum air temperature and precipitation (a) Tmin; (b) Tmax; (c) P, respectively, during the 1980–2010, 2010–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099 period, downscaled by seven assembly general circulation models (GCMs).
Figure 6.
The box plot shows the changes in (a–c) minimum temperature (Tmin), (d–f) maximum temperature (Tmax), and (g–i) precipitation (P) over the studied basin, downscaled from the seven GCMs using LARS-WG7 during the time horizons 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099 compared to 1980–2010. Note: (1) CNRM-CM6-1: Centre National de Recherché France, (2) GFDL-ESM4 = Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab USA, (3) HadGEM3-GC3-L1 = Meteorological Office UK, (4) INM-CM5-0 = Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russia, (5) UKESM1-0-LL = Meteorological Office UK, (6) MPI-ESM1-2-LR = Planck Institute for Meteorology Germany, (7) CESM2 = National Centre for Atmospheric USA.
Figure 6.
The box plot shows the changes in (a–c) minimum temperature (Tmin), (d–f) maximum temperature (Tmax), and (g–i) precipitation (P) over the studied basin, downscaled from the seven GCMs using LARS-WG7 during the time horizons 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099 compared to 1980–2010. Note: (1) CNRM-CM6-1: Centre National de Recherché France, (2) GFDL-ESM4 = Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab USA, (3) HadGEM3-GC3-L1 = Meteorological Office UK, (4) INM-CM5-0 = Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russia, (5) UKESM1-0-LL = Meteorological Office UK, (6) MPI-ESM1-2-LR = Planck Institute for Meteorology Germany, (7) CESM2 = National Centre for Atmospheric USA.
Figure 7.
Temporal variations of RDIst (the annual standardized reconnaissance drought index) and SDI (annual streamflow index) linked with Pav (the long-term mean basin precipitation) (left graphs) and PET (potential evapotranspiration) (right graphs) for: (a,b) 1980–2010; (c,d) 2011–2030; (e,f) 2046–2065; and (g,h) 2080–2099 time horizon, respectively, over the representative basin.
Figure 7.
Temporal variations of RDIst (the annual standardized reconnaissance drought index) and SDI (annual streamflow index) linked with Pav (the long-term mean basin precipitation) (left graphs) and PET (potential evapotranspiration) (right graphs) for: (a,b) 1980–2010; (c,d) 2011–2030; (e,f) 2046–2065; and (g,h) 2080–2099 time horizon, respectively, over the representative basin.
Figure 8.
Relationship linking the baseline with the climate change scenario for the monthly (a) 10th; (b) 25th; (c) 50th; (d) 75th; and (e) 90th percentiles.
Figure 8.
Relationship linking the baseline with the climate change scenario for the monthly (a) 10th; (b) 25th; (c) 50th; (d) 75th; and (e) 90th percentiles.
Figure 9.
Observations compared to the simulated streamflow time series using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model for (a,b) calibration periods (1988/1989–1999/2000) and (c,d) validation periods (1979/1980–1986/1987), respectively. Note: The solid line in (a,c) is a 45° line, representing what would be a perfect correspondence between observed data and solution values, the circle point.
Figure 9.
Observations compared to the simulated streamflow time series using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model for (a,b) calibration periods (1988/1989–1999/2000) and (c,d) validation periods (1979/1980–1986/1987), respectively. Note: The solid line in (a,c) is a 45° line, representing what would be a perfect correspondence between observed data and solution values, the circle point.
Figure 10.
The temporal and magnitude variations of the estimated average monthly Dokan reservoir inflow by the GCM (general circulation model) scenarios (left figures): (a) 2011–2030; (c) 2046–2065; and (e) 2080–2099 time periods; and (g) relationship between the three potential time periods, as compared to the values of baseline 1 (1980-2010); and delta perturbation scenarios (right figures): (b) 10%; (d) 20%; (f) 30%; and (h) 40% reduction in precipitation (P), respectively, as compared with the values of baseline 2 (1988–2000). Note: CNRM-CM6-1 = Centre National de Recherché France, GFDL-ESM4 = Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab USA, HadGEM3-GC3-L1 = Meteorological Office UK, INM-CM5-0 = Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russia, UKESM1-0-LL = Meteorological Office UK, MPI-ESM1-2-LR = Planck Institute for Meteorology Germany, CESM2 = National Centre for Atmospheric USA.
Figure 10.
The temporal and magnitude variations of the estimated average monthly Dokan reservoir inflow by the GCM (general circulation model) scenarios (left figures): (a) 2011–2030; (c) 2046–2065; and (e) 2080–2099 time periods; and (g) relationship between the three potential time periods, as compared to the values of baseline 1 (1980-2010); and delta perturbation scenarios (right figures): (b) 10%; (d) 20%; (f) 30%; and (h) 40% reduction in precipitation (P), respectively, as compared with the values of baseline 2 (1988–2000). Note: CNRM-CM6-1 = Centre National de Recherché France, GFDL-ESM4 = Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab USA, HadGEM3-GC3-L1 = Meteorological Office UK, INM-CM5-0 = Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russia, UKESM1-0-LL = Meteorological Office UK, MPI-ESM1-2-LR = Planck Institute for Meteorology Germany, CESM2 = National Centre for Atmospheric USA.
Table 1.
Meteorological station addresses in the Lower Zab River Basin.
Table 1.
Meteorological station addresses in the Lower Zab River Basin.
Sub-Basin | Station Name | Longitude (°) | Latitude (°) | Elevation (m) |
---|
US a | Sulymanya | 45.45 | 35.53 | 885 |
Halabcha | 45.94 | 35.44 | 651 |
Sachez | 46.26 | 36.25 | 1536 |
Mahabad | 45.70 | 36.75 | 1356 |
Salahddin | 44.20 | 36.38 | 1088 |
Soran | 44.63 | 36.87 | 1132 |
DS b | Kirkuk | 44.40 | 35.47 | 319 |
Makhmoor | 43.60 | 35.75 | 306 |
Erbeel | 44.00 | 36.15 | 1088 |
Chemchamal | 44.83 | 35.52 | 701 |
Table 2.
The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) incorporates selected global climate models from the IPCC’s sixth assessment report (AR6) [
18].
Table 2.
The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) incorporates selected global climate models from the IPCC’s sixth assessment report (AR6) [
18].
Research Centre | Country | Global Climate Model | Grid Resolution (Lat, Lon) |
---|
Centre National de Recherché Meteorologiques (CNRM), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS) | France | CNRM-CM6-1 | 1.40° × 1.406° |
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (NOAA-GFDL) | USA | GFDL-ESM4 | 1.00° × 1.25° |
UK Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) | UK | HadGEM3-GC3-L1 | 1.25° × 1.88° |
Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Science (INM) | Russia | INM-CM5-0 | 1.50° × 2.00° |
UK Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) | UK | UKESM1-0-LL | 1.25° × 1.88° |
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) | Germany | MPI-ESM1-2-LR | 1.39° ×°1.41° |
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (NCAR) | USA | CESM2 | 0.94° × 1.25° |
Table 3.
The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG7) validation results, including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) test, cover the distributions for wet and dry season series distributions during the baseline period of 1980–2010.
Table 3.
The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG7) validation results, including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) test, cover the distributions for wet and dry season series distributions during the baseline period of 1980–2010.
Sub-Basin | Sit Name | Seasons for Wet Years |
DJF c | MAM d | JJA e | SON f |
K-S | p-Value | K-S | p-Value | K-S | p-value | K-S | p-Value |
US a | Sulymanya | 0.278 | 0.286 4 | 0.037 | 1.000 1 | 0.162 | 0.897 2 | 0.158 | 0.913 2 |
Halabcha | 0.336 | 0.117 4 | 0.386 | 0.047 4 | 0.218 | 0.590 3 | 0.243 | 0.449 3 |
Sachez | 0.252 | 0.403 3 | 0.099 | 1.000 1 | 0.137 | 0.973 2 | 0.030 | 1.000 1 |
Mahabad | 0.064 | 1.000 1 | 0.138 | 0.971 2 | 0.326 | 0.139 4 | 0.133 | 0.979 2 |
Salahddin | 0.357 | 0.082 4 | 0.347 | 0.097 4 | 0.093 | 1.000 1 | 0.081 | 1.000 1 |
Soran | 0.215 | 0.607 3 | 0.036 | 1.000 1 | 0.150 | 0.940 2 | 0.128 | 0.986 2 |
DS b | Kirkuk | 0.490 | 0.005 4 | 0.009 | 1.000 1 | 0.078 | 1.000 1 | 0.126 | 0.989 2 |
Makhmoor | 0.074 | 1.000 1 | 0.190 | 0.755 2 | 0.156 | 0.920 2 | 0.173 | 0.847 2 |
Erbeel | 0.225 | 0.549 3 | 0.094 | 0.999 2 | 0.844 | 0.000 4 | 0.357 | 0.082 4 |
Chemchamal | 0.097 | 0.999 1 | 0.103 | 0.999 2 | 0.175 | 0.837 2 | 0.230 | 0.520 3 |
Sub-basin | Site name | Seasons for dry years |
DJF c | MAM d | JJA e | SON f |
K-S | p-value | K-S | p-value | K-S | p-value | K-S | p-value |
US a | Sulymanya | 0.037 | 1.000 1 | 0.046 | 1.000 1 | 0.138 | 0.971 2 | 0.066 | 1.000 1 |
Halabcha | 0.040 | 1.000 1 | 0.097 | 0.999 2 | 0.219 | 0.584 3 | 0.110 | 0.998 1 |
Sachez | 0.030 | 1.000 1 | 0.127 | 0.987 2 | 0.057 | 1.000 1 | 0.111 | 0.998 2 |
Mahabad | 0.057 | 1.000 1 | 0.042 | 1.000 1 | 0.084 | 1.000 1 | 0.210 | 0.637 3 |
Salahddin | 0.030 | 1.000 1 | 0.036 | 1.000 1 | 0.123 | 0.991 2 | 0.053 | 1.000 1 |
Soran | 0.032 | 1.000 1 | 0.050 | 1.000 1 | 0.078 | 1.000 1 | 0.135 | 0.976 2 |
DS b | Kirkuk | 0.896 | 0.000 4 | 0.114 | 0.997 2 | 0.169 | 0.866 2 | 0.114 | 0.997 2 |
Makhmoor | 0.868 | 0.000 4 | 0.200 | 0.697 3 | 0.311 | 0.176 4 | 0.112 | 0.998 2 |
Erbeel | 0.152 | 0.934 2 | 0.101 | 0.999 2 | 0.228 | 0.531 3 | 0.120 | 0.994 1 |
Chemchamal | 0.053 | 1.000 1 | 0.041 | 1.000 1 | 0.049 | 1.000 1 | 0.045 | 1.000 1 |
Table 4.
The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG7) validation results, including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) test for daily rain distributions during the baseline period of 1980–2010.
Table 4.
The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG7) validation results, including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) test for daily rain distributions during the baseline period of 1980–2010.
Sub-Basin | Sit Name | January | February | March | April |
K-S | p-Value | K-S | p-Value | K-S | p-Value | K-S | p-Value |
US a | Sulymanya | 0.125 | 0.989 2 | 0.343 | 1.000 1 | 0.038 | 1.000 1 | 0.024 | 1.000 1 |
Halabcha | 0.076 | 1.000 1 | 0.215 | 0.607 3 | 0.113 | 0.997 2 | 0.082 | 1.000 1 |
Sachez | 0.035 | 1.000 1 | 0.088 | 1.000 1 | 0.035 | 1.000 1 | 0.025 | 1.000 1 |
Mahabad | 0.045 | 1.000 1 | 0.106 | 0.999 2 | 0.088 | 1.000 1 | 0.036 | 1.000 1 |
Salahddin | 0.144 | 0.957 2 | 0.176 | 0.832 2 | 0.038 | 1.000 1 | 0.226 | 0.543 3 |
Soran | 0.100 | 0.999 2 | 0.060 | 1.000 1 | 0.093 | 0.999 2 | 0.062 | 1.000 1 |
DS b | Kirkuk | 0.083 | 1.000 1 | 0.068 | 1.000 1 | 0.032 | 1.000 1 | 0.035 | 1.000 1 |
Makhmoor | 0.041 | 1.000 1 | 0.060 | 1.000 1 | 0.048 | 1.000 1 | 0.145 | 0.954 2 |
Erbeel | 0.048 | 1.000 1 | 0.048 | 1.000 1 | 0.118 | 0.995 2 | 0.022 | 1.000 1 |
Chemchamal | 0.064 | 1.000 1 | 0.095 | 0.999 2 | 0.137 | 0.973 2 | 0.038 | 1.000 1 |
Sub-basin | Site name | May | June | July | August |
K-S | p-value | K-S | p-value | K-S | p-value | K-S | p-value |
US a | Sulymanya | 0.117 | 0.995 2 | 0.325 | 0.141 4 | 0.696 | 0.000 4 | 0.268 | 0.328 4 |
Halabcha | 0.030 | 1.000 1 | 0.696 | 0.000 4 | 0.653 | 0.000 4 | 0.261 | 0.359 4 |
Sachez | 0.208 | 0.649 3 | 0.212 | 0.625 3 | 0.696 | 0.000 4 | 0.478 | 0.006 4 |
Mahabad | 0.169 | 0.866 2 | 0.108 | 0.999 2 | 0.020 | 1.000 1 | 0.037 | 1.000 1 |
Salahddin | 0.154 | 0.927 1 | 0.184 | 0.789 2 | 1.000 | 0.000 4 | 0.696 | 0.000 4 |
Soran | 0.195 | 0.726 2 | 0.069 | 1.000 1 | 0.021 | 1.000 1 | 0.066 | 1.000 1 |
DS b | Kirkuk | 0.177 | 0.826 2 | 0.348 | 0.096 1 | c (-) | c (-) | 1.000 | 0.000 4 |
Makhmoor | 0.095 | 0.999 2 | 0.522 | 0.002 4 | 1.000 | 0.000 4 | 1.000 | 0.000 4 |
Erbeel | 0.025 | 1.000 1 | 0.083 | 1.000 1 | c (-) | c (-) | 0.957 | 0.000 4 |
Chemchamal | 0.018 | 1.000 1 | 0.117 | 0.995 2 | 0.175 | 0.836 2 | 0.739 | 0.000 4 |
Sub-basin | Site name | September | October | November | December |
K-S | p-value | K-S | p-value | K-S | p-value | K-S | p-value |
US a | Sulymanya | 0.184 | 0.789 2 | 0.032 | 1.000 1 | 0.143 | 0.960 2 | 0.060 | 1.000 1 |
Halabcha | 0.073 | 1.000 1 | 0.077 | 1.000 1 | 0.246 | 0.433 3 | 0.242 | 0.454 3 |
Sachez | 0.116 | 0.996 2 | 0.021 | 1.000 1 | 0.035 | 1.000 1 | 0.090 | 1.000 1 |
Mahabad | 0.023 | 1.000 1 | 0.068 | 1.000 1 | 0.093 | 0.999 2 | 0.119 | 0.994 2 |
Salahddin | 0.204 | 0.196 4 | 0.276 | 0.294 4 | 0.171 | 0.856 2 | 0.061 | 1.000 1 |
Soran | 0.057 | 1.000 1 | 0.070 | 1.000 1 | 0.034 | 1.000 1 | 0.219 | 0.584 3 |
DS b | Kirkuk | 0.522 | 0.002 4 | 0.195 | 0.726 2 | 0.151 | 0.937 2 | 0.185 | 0.783 2 |
Makhmoor | 0.248 | 0.423 3 | 0.030 | 1.000 1 | 0.040 | 1.000 1 | 0.040 | 1.000 1 |
Erbeel | 0.319 | 0.155 4 | 0.182 | 0.799 2 | 0.038 | 1.000 1 | 0.042 | 1.000 1 |
Chemchamal | 0.557 | 0.001 4 | 0.038 | 1.000 1 | 0.107 | 0.999 2 | 0.035 | 1.000 1 |
Table 5.
Hydrological alteration for the middle range of the variability approach (RVA) category for the Lower Zab River for the three future time periods compared to the baseline (1980–2010).
Table 5.
Hydrological alteration for the middle range of the variability approach (RVA) category for the Lower Zab River for the three future time periods compared to the baseline (1980–2010).
Degree of Hydrological Alteration (%) |
Parameter Group no. 1 (Comprising Monthly Median Discharge Values) |
Year Ranges | Month |
Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. |
2011–2030 | −5 s | 13 s | 3 s | −6 s | −7 s | −6 s | −7 s | −10 s | −9 s | −9 s | −9 s | −9 s |
2046–2065 | −4 s | 13 s | 25 s | 12 s | 3 s | −6 s | −6 s | −8 s | −8 s | −8 s | −8 s | −8 s |
2080–2099 | −31 s | 8 s | 2 s | −20 s | −28 s | −36 m | −38 m | −41 m | −42 m | −42 m | −42 m | −42 m |
Parameter Group no. 2 (Magnitude and Duration of Annual Extreme) |
Year Ranges | n-Day Minimum | n-Day Maximum | BFI a |
1 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 90 |
2011–2030 | 8 s | 8 s | 7 s | 12 s | 9 s | −8 s | −8 s | −8 s | −6 s | −2 s | 12 s |
2046–2065 | 9 s | 8 s | 7 s | 13 s | 8 s | −8 s | −8 s | −8 s | −6 s | −2 s | 13 s |
2080–2099 | −27 s | −27 s | −28 s | 11 s | −26 s | −38 m | −38 m | −37 m | −36 m | −33 s | 11 s |
Table 6.
Statistical relationships between water yield (Y, %), the operational probability of (reservoir) failure (OPOF, %), reservoir capacity (C, 106 m3), and Y% using seven global circulation models (GCMs) and three future time periods.
Table 6.
Statistical relationships between water yield (Y, %), the operational probability of (reservoir) failure (OPOF, %), reservoir capacity (C, 106 m3), and Y% using seven global circulation models (GCMs) and three future time periods.
Year Ranges | Climate Change Scenario for Y (%) a |
GCM | Delta Perturbation |
e | F | g | h | i | j | Change (%) |
P c | PET d |
1980–2010 | 0.0034 | 0.489 | 70.02 | - | - | - | - | - |
2011–2030 | 0.0037 | 0.455 | 69.12 | −0.001 | 0.749 | 65.11 | 10 | 10 |
2046–2065 | 0.0045 | 0.362 | 64.28 | 0.006 | 0.224 | 62.95 | 20 | 10 |
2080–2099 | 0.0066 | −0.162 | 63.91 | −0.024 | −1.98 | 109.48 | 30 | 30 |
Year Ranges | Climate Change Scenario for C (106 m3) b |
GCM | Delta Perturbation |
k | L | m | n | o | p | Change (%) |
P c | PET d |
1980–2010 | −1.21 | 914.96 | −51,504 | - | - | - | - | - |
2011–2030 | 1.78 | 234.85 | −8490.7 | −4.48 | 1224.8 | −46,423 | 20 | 30 |
2046–2065 | −1.76 | 757.48 | −23,532 | −3.57 | 1007.9 | −31,067 | 30 | 20 |
2080–2099 | −3.62 | 967.99 | −21,697 | −2.30 | 736.49 | −13,283 | 40 | 30 |