Causes for the Occurrence of Severe Drought at the Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands during the El Niño Event in 2018–2019
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Is It True that the Ogasawara Islands Do Not Suffer from Severe Drought during EN?
3.2. Relationship between EN and EN Modoki, and the Effect of the Latter on the Atmospheric Field around the Ogasawara Islands
3.3. Temporal Evolution of SSTA during EN, EN Modoki, and 2018–2019
3.4. Temporal Evolution of Atmospheric Field Anomaly during EN Modoki and 2018–2019
3.5. Past Drought Events at the Ogasawara Islands during the Simultaneous Occurrence of EN and EN Modoki, along with the Case Study of Spring–Summer 1991
4. Conclusions
- In general, the Ogasawara Islands did not experience drought during EN events (7 out of 11 cases).
- The severe drought that occurred during the EN event in 2018–2019 corresponded to the simultaneous occurrence of EN and EN Modoki events.
- During EN Modoki, the precipitation around the Ogasawara Islands was less than the climatological mean from autumn to the following spring.
- From an analysis of past drought events on the Ogasawara Islands, we found that drought events from October 1990 to July 1991 partially overlapped with the simultaneous occurrence of EN and EN Modoki events. The analysis of the data from spring to summer 1991 demonstrated that global atmospheric conditions are more important than local conditions.
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Period of EN | Duration of EN (Month) | Average of SSTA at NINO3 Region (°C) | Total Anomaly of Precipitation (mm) | Average Anomaly of Precipitation (mm/mon) |
---|---|---|---|---|
11. 1968–2. 1970 | 16 | 0.7 | 80.2 | 5.0 |
5. 1972–3. 1973 | 11 | 1.5 | 241.4 | 21.9 |
6. 1976–3. 1977 | 10 | 0.8 | −123.2 | −12.3 |
4. 1982–9. 1983 | 18 | 1.6 | 116.9 | 6.5 |
9. 1986–1. 1988 | 17 | 1.2 | 10.1 | 0.6 |
4. 1991–7. 1992 | 16 | 1.0 | 183.6 | 11.5 |
4. 1997–5. 1998 | 16 | 2.2 | 573.2 | 40.9 |
5. 2002–2. 2003 | 10 | 0.8 | −48.9 | −4.9 |
6. 2009–3. 2010 | 10 | 0.9 | −14.7 | −1.5 |
5. 2014–5. 2016 | 25 | 1.3 | 384.7 | 17.5 |
9. 2018–5. 2019 | 9 | 0.7 | −374.8 | −41.6 |
Period of EN | Precipitation Anomaly (mm) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
September | October | November | December | January | Total | |
11. 1968–2. 1970 | 86.4 | −26.6 | −63.2 | −22.2 | 141.2 | 115.6 |
5. 1972–3. 1973 | 59.8 | 142.8 | −3.6 | 117.7 | 43.9 | 360.6 |
6. 1976–3. 1977 | −92.2 | 12.8 | 15.9 | −52.3 | 57.4 | −58.4 |
4. 1982–9. 1983 | 32.3 | −29.7 | −117.6 | 269.7 | −7.1 | 147.6 |
9. 1986–1. 1988 | 61.8 | −107.2 | −33.6 | −60.8 | −24.6 | −164.4 |
4. 1991–7. 1992 | −43.7 | −69.2 | 63.9 | 38.2 | 9.9 | −0.9 |
4. 1997–5. 1998 | 78.3 | 62.3 | 467.4 | 40.2 | −21.1 | 627.1 |
5. 2002–2. 2003 | −102.2 | −45.7 | 90.9 | 16.2 | 13.4 | −27.4 |
6. 2009–3. 2010 | 44.8 | −1.2 | −84.6 | −2.8 | −26.1 | −69.9 |
5. 2014–5. 2016 | ||||||
(9. 2014–1. 2015) 1 | −11.2 | 23.8 | 120.9 | 35.7 | 0.4 | 169.6 |
5. 2014–5. 2016 | ||||||
(9. 2015–1. 2016) 1 | 172.3 | −27.7 | 17.4 | −26.3 | 49.4 | 185.1 |
9. 2018–5. 2019 | −82.6 | −62.6 | −75.2 | −99.7 | −36.8 | −356.9 |
Period of EN | Period of EN Modoki | Drought at the Ogasawara Islands [16] |
---|---|---|
11. 1968–2. 1970 | 11. 1968–4. 1969 | |
1971 | ||
5. 1972–3. 1973 | ||
6. 1976–3. 1977 | ||
8. 1977–2. 1978 | ||
1980 | ||
4. 1982–9. 1983 | ||
1985 | ||
9. 1986–1. 1988 | ||
summer 1990 (Chichi-jima) | ||
4. 1991–7. 1992 | 8. 1990–1. 1992 | 10. 1990–7. 1991 (Haha-jima) |
1993 | ||
2. 1994–6. 1995 | ||
4. 1997–5. 1998 | ||
5. 2002–2. 2003 | 6. 2002–5. 2003 | |
5. 2004–4. 2005 | summer 2004 | |
6. 2009–3. 2010 | 10. 2009–3. 2010 | |
Baiu season in 2011 | ||
5. 2014–5. 2016 | ||
autumn 2016–spring 2017 | ||
9. 2018–5. 2019 | 8. 2018–1. 2019 5. 2019–2. 2020 | autumn 2018–spring 2019 |
SON | DJF | MAM | |
---|---|---|---|
Precipitation at Chichi-jima (mm/mon) | 130.5 | 77.4 | 113.6 |
EN | 126% | 120% | 99% |
EN Modoki | 75% | 86% | 98% |
9. 2018–5. 2019 | 44% | 26% | 104% |
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Matsuyama, H. Causes for the Occurrence of Severe Drought at the Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands during the El Niño Event in 2018–2019. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 1005. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081005
Matsuyama H. Causes for the Occurrence of Severe Drought at the Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands during the El Niño Event in 2018–2019. Atmosphere. 2024; 15(8):1005. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081005
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatsuyama, Hiroshi. 2024. "Causes for the Occurrence of Severe Drought at the Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands during the El Niño Event in 2018–2019" Atmosphere 15, no. 8: 1005. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081005