Carbon Reduction Pathways for Chinese Provinces: Considering Carbon Intensity Convergence, Regional Development Plans, and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The achievement of dual carbon goals varies significantly across Chinese provinces due to the differences in resource endowments and socioeconomic development levels. These variations impose distinct pressures for transitioning along different socioeconomic development paths. Exploration of orderly carbon reduction paths for each province is, thus, crucial, but current predictions have not adequately integrated provincial development plans and carbon emission convergence trends. This study combines the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC’s) shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with a dual-layer target-setting approach based on trends in carbon emissions and each province’s five-year plans. The scalable stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model and ridge regression method were employed to identify the factors influencing carbon emissions. Carbon peak values and timing were then predicted for provinces under different scenarios. The results indicate that total carbon emissions are primarily influenced by provincial economic level and population, with spatial and temporal variations in the driving factors. Carbon emissions are ranked from low to high in the following order: SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5. Provinces were categorized into four tiers based on their peak times: early, on-time, delayed, and significantly delayed peaking. Under SSP1, 24 provinces would achieve carbon peaking as scheduled. Under SSP2, only 17 provinces would achieve carbon peaking on time. Among the first-tier provinces, Beijing and Shanghai would achieve peak carbon five to eight years ahead of schedule; the second-tier provinces of Henan, Fujian, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia would achieve peak carbon by 2030; the third tier would achieve carbon peak before 2035; and the fourth tier would gradually reach peak carbon before 2050. Policy implications for differentiated carbon peak paths are proposed for different regions based on these findings.