Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Super-Typhoons in the Western North Pacific: Cloud-Resolving Case Studies Using Pseudo-Global Warming Experiments
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data, Methodology, and Model Experiments
2.1. Data
2.2. Estimation of Long-Term Climate Change
2.3. Cloud-Resolving Model and Experiments
2.4. Water Budget Analysis
3. Projected Long-Term Trend of Climate Change
4. Overall Results of Control Experiments
5. Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Intense Typhoons
5.1. Track and Intensity
5.2. Precipitation
5.3. Water Budget Analysis
6. Discussion
7. Conclusions and Summary
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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No. | Model | Developer | No. | Model | Developer |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ACCESS1.0 | CSIRO-BOM, | 21 | GISS-E2-R | NASA-GISS, USA |
2 | ACCESS1.3 | Australia | 22 | GISS-E2-R-CC | |
3 | BCC-CSM1.1 | BCC, CMA, China | 23 | HadGEM2-AO | NIMR-KMA, Korea |
4 | BCC-CSM1.1(m) | 24 | HadGEM2-ES | MO-HC, UK | |
5 | CanESM2 | CCCma, Canada | 25 | HadGEM2-CC | |
6 | CCSM4 | NCAR, USA | 26 | INM-CM4 | INM, Russia |
7 | CESM1-BGC | NSF/DOE/NCAR, | 27 | IPSL-CM5A-LR | IPSL, France |
8 | CESM1-CAM5 | USA | 28 | IPSL-CM5A-MR | |
9 | CMCC-CM | CMCC, Italy | 29 | IPSL-CM5B-LR | |
10 | CMCC-CMS | 30 | MIROC5 | AORI/NIES/ | |
11 | CNRM-CM5 | CNRM, France | JAMSTEC, Japan | ||
12 | CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 | CSIRO, Australia | 31 | MIROC-ESM-CHEM * | JAMSTEC, Japan |
13 | FGOALS-g2 | IAP-CAS, China | 32 | MIROC-ESM | |
14 | FGOALS-s2 | 33 | MPI-ESM-LR | MPI, Germany | |
15 | FIO-ESM * | FIO, SOA, China | 34 | MPI-ESM-MR | |
16 | GFDL-CM3 | GFDL.NOAA, USA | 35 | MRI-ESM1 | JMA-MRI, Japan |
17 | GFDL-ESM2G | 36 | MRI-CGCM3 | ||
18 | GFDL-ESM2M | 37 | NorESM1-M * | NCC, Norway | |
19 | GISS-E2-H | NASA-GISS, USA | 38 | NorESM1-ME | |
20 | GISS-E-H-CC |
Grid spacing (x, y, z) * | 2.5 km × 2.5 km × 124–655 m (500 m) |
Grid dimension | 1440 × 1440 × 60 (for Meranti) |
Domain size (km) | 3660 × 3660 × 30 (for Meranti) |
IC/BCs of atmosphere | NCEP FNL analyses (every 0.25° or 0.5°, 26 levels) |
Sea surface temperature | HYCOM + NCODA (every 0.08°) |
Cloud microphysics | Double-moment bulk cold-rain scheme (six species) |
PBL turbulence | 1.5-order closure with turbulent kinetic energy prediction |
Surface processes | Momentum/energy fluxes and shortwave/longwave radiation |
Upper ocean | 1D slab model from 0 to 150 m in depth (60 levels) |
Typhoon | Grid Dimension (x, y) | Initial Time and Simulation Length |
---|---|---|
Megi (2010) | 1440 × 1296 | 0000 UTC 15 October 2010, 96 h |
Haiyan (2013) | 1680 × 864 | 0000 UTC 6 November 2013, 72 h |
Vongfong (2014) | 1440 × 1440 | 1800 UTC 4 October 2014, 120 h |
Soudelor (2015) | 1824 × 1072 | 0000 UTC 1 August 2015, 96 h |
Meranti (2016) | 1440 × 1440 | 1200 UTC 10 September 2016, 96 h |
Yutu (2018) | 1728 × 928 | 0600 UTC, 23 October 2018, 72 h |
Typhoon | Minimum Pressure (hPa) | Maximum Wind Speed (m s−1) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JTWC | CTL | R4.5 | R8.5 | JTWC | CTL | R4.5 | R8.5 | |
Megi (2010) | 903.0 | 911.6 | 912.1 | 910.7 | 82.31 | 69.27 | 68.08 | 71.39 |
Haiyan (2013) | 895.0 | 883.4 | 894.0 | 910.2 | 87.46 | 77.23 | 75.15 | 70.12 |
Vongfong (2014) | 907.0 | 915.4 | 917.4 | 919.2 | 79.74 | 58.93 | 58.21 | 58.39 |
Soudelor (2015) | 907.0 | 907.8 | 910.3 | 919.6 | 79.74 | 60.53 | 58.50 | 60.73 |
Meranti (2016) | 895.0 | 900.1 | 903.4 | 905.7 | 87.46 | 74.87 | 69.43 | 67.64 |
Yutu (2018) | 904.0 | 917.7 | 920.5 | 922.2 | 77.17 | 62.83 | 64.49 | 60.55 |
Typhoon | Exp. | 200 km | 250 km | 300 km | 350 km | 400 km | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rain | Ch. | Rain | Ch. | Rain | Ch. | Rain | Ch. | Rain | Ch. | ||
Megi (2010) | CTL R4.5 R8.5 | 20.58 22.85 24.70 | − +11.00 +19.99 | 16.47 17.84 19.37 | − +8.33 +17.58 | 13.22 14.07 15.29 | − +6.43 +15.64 | 10.66 11.32 12.14 | − +6.17 +13.90 | 8.70 9.23 9.82 | − +6.04 +12.85 |
Haiyan (2013) | CTL R4.5 R8.5 | 26.19 28.91 31.27 | − +10.42 +19.43 | 20.49 22.00 24.82 | − +7.4 +21.16 | 16.21 17.40 19.93 | − +7.36 +23.00 | 13.18 14.43 16.59 | − +9.51 +21.84 | 11.04 12.46 14.31 | − +12.85 +29.60 |
Vongfong (2014) | CTL R4.5 R8.5 | 21.19 22.81 26.21 | − +7.62 +23.70 | 16.66 18.00 18.80 | − +8.10 +12.86 | 13.86 14.62 14.08 | − +5.52 +1.61 | 11.55 11.76 10.81 | − +1.87 −6.40 | 9.50 9.44 8.51 | − −0.71 −10.40 |
Soudelor (2015) | CTL R4.5 R8.5 | 15.59 17.46 19.32 | − +11.98 +23.90 | 12.80 14.04 15.27 | − +9.63 +19.28 | 10.85 11.56 12.08 | − +6.58 +11.29 | 9.16 9.48 9.73 | − +3.43 +6.24 | 7.74 7.97 8.14 | − +3.00 +5.15 |
Meranti (2016) | CTL R4.5 R8.5 | 20.14 21.33 24.09 | − +5.92 +19.58 | 15.81 16.72 18.60 | − +5.75 +17.65 | 13.03 13.50 15.07 | − +3.64 +15.66 | 10.56 11.05 11.79 | − +4.67 +11.67 | 8.73 9.13 9.28 | − +4.63 +6.30 |
Yutu (2018) | CTL R4.5 R8.5 | 24.11 25.81 26.85 | − +7.06 +11.37 | 19.18 19.97 20.90 | − +4.13 +8.98 | 15.44 15.81 15.86 | − +2.41 +2.76 | 12.06 12.22 11.92 | − +1.35 −1.15 | 9.49 9.54 9.31 | − +0.61 −1.82 |
Typhoon | n | Experiment | 200 km | 250 km | 300 km | 350 km | 400 km |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Megi (2010) | 32 | R4.5—CTL R8.5—CTL | 5.183 7.700 | 6.249 8.432 | 5.100 8.646 | 4.306 7.443 | 4.805 6.761 |
Haiyan (2013) | 24 | R4.5—CTL R8.5—CTL | 4.298 5.158 | 3.084 6.146 | 3.240 7.067 | 4.586 8.169 | 5.746 9.810 |
Meranti (2016) | 32 | R4.5—CTL R8.5—CTL | 3.951 5.799 | 3.859 5.450 | 2.207 5.290 | 2.842 3.945 | 2.585 2.359 |
Confidence level | 90.0% | 95.0% | 99.0% | 99.5% | 99.9% | ||
n = 24 | 1.320 | 1.714 | 2.500 | 2.807 | 3.485 | ||
n = 32 | 1.309 | 1.696 | 2.453 | 2.744 | 3.375 |
Typhoon | Experiment | P | TDC | CVF | CONV | ADV | CHF | E | R |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Megi (2010) (r = 350 km) (t = 6–90 h) | CTL R4.5 R8.5 | 10.79 11.48 12.47 | 0.21 0.25 0.29 | 9.48 10.37 11.31 | 10.58 11.45 12.50 | −1.10 −1.07 −1.19 | −0.08 −0.06 −0.06 | 1.41 1.46 1.54 | +0.19 −0.04 −0.02 |
R4.5—CTL R8.5—CTL | +0.69 +1.68 | +0.04 +0.08 | +0.89 +1.83 | +0.87 +1.93 | +0.03 −0.09 | +0.02 +0.02 | +0.05 +0.13 | − − | |
Haiyan (2013) (r = 250 km) (t = 24–72 h) | CTL R4.5 R8.5 | 19.16 21.48 23.75 | 0.15 0.19 0.29 | 15.85 17.05 19.24 | 17.19 18.44 20.82 | −1.34 −1.38 −1.58 | +0.10 +0.07 +0.21 | 1.80 1.84 2.03 | +1.57 +2.70 +2.57 |
R4.5—CTL R8.5—CTL | +2.32 +4.59 | +0.04 +0.14 | +1.20 +3.39 | +1.25 +3.63 | −0.04 −0.24 | −0.03 +0.11 | +0.04 +0.23 | − − | |
Meranti (2016) (r = 300 km) (t = 6–90 h) | CTL R4.5 R8.5 | 13.36 14.03 15.49 | 0.13 0.15 0.24 | 11.15 12.54 15.75 | 12.35 13.82 17.32 | −1.21 −1.28 −1.58 | +0.12 +0.11 −0.03 | 1.52 1.59 1.56 | +0.70 −0.06 −1.55 |
R4.5—CTL R8.5—CTL | +0.67 +2.13 | +0.02 +0.11 | +1.39 +4.60 | +1.46 +4.97 | −0.07 −0.37 | −0.01 −0.15 | +0.07 +0.03 | − − |
Typhoon | Experiment | CONV | PW5.5 | IHC5.5 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Megi (2010) | CTL | 10.58 | 53.11 | 5.45 | |||
(r = 350 km) (t = 6–90 h) | R4.5—CTL R8.5—CTL | +0.87 +1.93 | +8.2% +18.2% | +6.78 +12.66 | +12.8% +23.8% | −0.17 −0.08 | −3.0% −1.5% |
Haiyan (2013) | CTL | 17.19 | 53.11 | 10.29 | |||
(r = 250 km) (t = 24–72 h) | R4.5—CTL R8.5—CTL | +1.25 +3.63 | +7.3% +21.1% | +7.04 +13.26 | +13.3% +25.0% | −0.51 +0.08 | −5.0% +0.7% |
Meranti (2016) | CTL | 12.35 | 54.39 | 7.64 | |||
(r = 300 km) (t = 6–90 h) | R4.5—CTL R8.5—CTL | +1.46 +4.97 | +11.9% +40.2% | +7.12 +14.15 | +13.0% +25.8% | −0.01 +0.64 | −0.2% +8.4% |
Experiment | Δ Values for RCP8.5 | Minimum Pressure (pmin, hPa) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
u/v | z/T/SST | qv | Haiyan | Megi | Meranti | |
CTL R8.5 | √ | √ | √ | 883.4 910.2 | 911.6 910.7 | 900.1 905.7 |
R8.5_nW R8.5_nQ R8.5_nWQ | √ | √ √ √ | √ | 909.5 911.9 900.3 | 910.4 928.3 931.6 | 905.1 907.6 909.2 |
R8.5_nWT R8.5_cQd | √ | √ | √ cQd | 926.3 905.2 | − − | − − |
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Wang, C.-C.; Hsieh, M.-R.; Thean, Y.T.; Zheng, Z.-W.; Huang, S.-Y.; Tsuboki, K. Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Super-Typhoons in the Western North Pacific: Cloud-Resolving Case Studies Using Pseudo-Global Warming Experiments. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 1029. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091029
Wang C-C, Hsieh M-R, Thean YT, Zheng Z-W, Huang S-Y, Tsuboki K. Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Super-Typhoons in the Western North Pacific: Cloud-Resolving Case Studies Using Pseudo-Global Warming Experiments. Atmosphere. 2024; 15(9):1029. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091029
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Chung-Chieh, Min-Ru Hsieh, Yi Ting Thean, Zhe-Wen Zheng, Shin-Yi Huang, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki. 2024. "Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Super-Typhoons in the Western North Pacific: Cloud-Resolving Case Studies Using Pseudo-Global Warming Experiments" Atmosphere 15, no. 9: 1029. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091029