Climate Change Through Urbanization: The Coupling Effects of Urbanization, Water Resources and Forests on Carbon Emissions

The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively study the impact mechanism of urbanization, water resources, and forestry system coupling on carbon emissions, and explore new ways to reduce carbon emissions, as complex relationships exist among urbanization, water resources, and forestry systems. Based on the data of provincial regions in mainland China from 2015 to 2024, this paper analyzes the impact of urbanization, water resources, and forestry system coupling on carbon emissions by constructing the STIRPAT model. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in the impact of the coupling degree among urbanization, water resources, and forestry systems on carbon emissions across Chinese provinces. Most regions exhibit insufficient carbon reduction effects. Enhancing the carbon mitigation effect through improving the coupling coordination of urbanization, water resources, and forestry systems presents a novel pathway toward achieving carbon neutrality during urbanization processes. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that disparities in economic aggregate alter the mechanisms through which the STIRPAT model influences carbon emissions. The main contribution of this paper is to establish the evaluation index system of urbanization, water resources, and forestry development, analyze the mechanism of urbanization, water resources, and forestry coupling system affecting carbon emissions with the STIRPAT model, and explore new pathways for achieving carbon neutrality within urbanizing systems.