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Article

Long-Term Monitoring and Statistical Analysis of Indoor Radon Concentration near the Almaty Tectonic Fault

by
Yuliya Zaripova
1,*,
Vyacheslav Dyachkov
2,
Zarema Biyasheva
1,
Kuralay Dyussebayeva
1 and
Alexandr Yushkov
1
1
National Nanotechnology Laboratory of Open Type (NNLOT), al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 054000, Kazakhstan
2
Faculty of Physics, Voronezh State University, Voronezh 394018, Russia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2025, 16(9), 1027; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16091027
Submission received: 31 July 2025 / Revised: 14 August 2025 / Accepted: 28 August 2025 / Published: 30 August 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Radon and Radioecology)
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Abstract

This study presents the results of a spatiotemporal analysis of indoor radon concentration dynamics at the Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan), located near the Almaty tectonic fault. The research is based on a 2.5-year monitoring campaign of radon levels using the RAMON-02A radiometer. The radon activity concentration ranged from 1.29 ± 0.19 to 149 ± 22 Bq/m3. The distribution of radon concentrations was found to follow a lognormal law, with a skewness coefficient of 1.55 and kurtosis of 4.7. The mean values were 28.7 ± 4.2 Bq/m3 (arithmetic mean) and 24.5 ± 3.6 Bq/m3 (geometric mean). Distinct seasonal and monthly variations were observed: the lowest concentrations were recorded during the summer months (August—20.8 ± 3.1 Bq/m3), while the highest were observed in spring and winter (May—34.0 ± 4.9 Bq/m3, December—34.2 ± 4.9 Bq/m3). The springtime increase in radon levels is attributed to thermobaric effects, limited ventilation, and precipitation, which contributes to soil sealing. Autocorrelation analysis revealed diurnal, seasonal, and annual fluctuations, as well as quasi-periodic variations of approximately 150 days, presumably linked to geophysical processes. Correlation analysis indicated a weak positive relationship between radon concentration and air temperature during winter and spring (≈0.2), and a pronounced negative correlation with atmospheric pressure in winter (−0.57). The influence of humidity was found to be minor and seasonally variable.

1. Introduction

The biodiversity of the Earth is continuously exposed to natural sources of radiation. The primary contribution to the radiation dose comes from radon and its decay products, which are generated during the alpha decay of radium—a decay product of uranium and thorium. In particular, the longest-lived radon isotope, 222Rn (with a half-life of 3.82 days), is formed through the alpha decay of 226Ra. As an inert gas, radon penetrates indoor environments via molecular diffusion (Fick’s law), gas diffusion (Darcy’s law), or a combination of both mechanisms. It enters buildings through microcracks in walls and floors, as well as due to pressure differences between the indoor and outdoor air [1,2]. Once inside, radon accumulates, with the highest concentrations typically observed in enclosed and poorly ventilated rooms.
The inhalation of radioactive aerosols over extended periods poses a potential health hazard. The formation of radioactive aerosols depends on indoor humidity levels and the concentration of radon and its decay products, as approximately 80% of radon decay products attach to airborne aerosols. Upon decay, both radon and its decay products emit ionizing particles that, when inhaled, can damage the cells of the bronchial epithelium due to internal exposure. A direct causal relationship between radon exposure and lung cancer has been established in numerous large-scale epidemiological studies [3,4,5,6,7]. According to research findings [8,9], the greatest impact on lung cancer mortality (associated with indoor radon levels) is observed under combined exposure to radon and tobacco smoke.
National reference levels for indoor radon concentration have been established by legislation in both developed and developing countries. International regulatory frameworks define reference levels within the range of 100–300 Bq/m3 [10,11,12,13,14,15,16]. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommend taking remedial action when indoor radon levels exceed 100 Bq/m3 and 148 Bq/m3, respectively [17,18]. At the same time, studies [19,20,21,22] report that there is no safe threshold for indoor radon exposure, as carcinogenic effects have been observed even at levels below established reference values. In the Republic of Kazakhstan, according to [23], the annual average equilibrium equivalent volumetric activity of radon and thoron progeny in the air of residential premises should not exceed 200 Bq/m3 in existing buildings, and 100 Bq/m3 in newly constructed residential and public buildings. Furthermore, studies [3,24] have shown that the excess relative risk of lung cancer increases by 14–16% for a radon concentration of 100 Bq/m3 over an exposure period of 25–30 years.
The primary health risk from radon arises from prolonged occupancy in enclosed, poorly ventilated indoor spaces where radon concentrations are elevated. Indoor radon levels can vary significantly due to both natural and anthropogenic factors, including meteorological parameters, geological features, tectonic faults, building construction techniques, and the degree of ventilation in enclosed environments [7,25,26,27,28]. The intensity of radon emanation also depends on various geological characteristics of the area, particularly the proximity to tectonic faults, as well as soil composition, porosity, and the presence of near-surface groundwater [29]. Global studies on indoor radon distribution have shown that concentrations fluctuate significantly over time, exhibiting daily, seasonal, and annual variations [30,31,32,33,34]. According to studies [35,36], daily patterns reveal maximum radon concentrations at night and minimum levels during the day. Climatic variables—such as temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, wind speed, and direction—play an important role in seasonal fluctuations of indoor radon levels [37,38]. Precipitation (rain or snow) and high atmospheric pressure tend to suppress radon infiltration from the soil, while frozen ground during the winter months prevents radon from escaping into the atmosphere, causing its accumulation beneath the permafrost layer [39]. The chimney effect, driven by temperature and pressure differences between indoor and outdoor environments, enhances radon entry from the subsurface into buildings. In the absence of mechanical ventilation, indoor radon and its decay products concentrations increase during winter due to reduced natural ventilation. In contrast, during summer, enhanced ventilation intensity leads to a reduction in indoor radon levels. Seasonal studies have confirmed that in temperate and continental climates, radon concentrations tend to be lower in summer and higher in winter, a pattern that has been classified as the normal seasonal variation of indoor radon [40,41,42,43,44].
Deviations from the typical pattern of seasonal variation in indoor radon concentration can be influenced by the properties of construction materials used in buildings, such as their type, composition, and age. For example, the use of heavy building materials (e.g., concrete) increases the building’s thermal mass, allowing it to retain heat even during the summer months [45].
Monitoring of radon is a relevant and necessary aspect of research into radon’s health effects on the population, as accurate and reliable data on radon concentrations are essential. Due to the significant temporal variability of indoor radon concentrations, the annual average radon concentration is considered the most informative parameter for assessing radiological risk. It is recommended that this value be determined from long-term measurements with a minimum duration of three months [12]. The international literature reports long-term radon concentration monitoring using both electronic and solid-state detectors, with measurement durations ranging from 3 to 53 months [36,46,47,48]. In Kazakhstan, the problem of radon exposure remains insufficiently studied, despite the fact that the investigated territory is characterized by relatively high indoor radon concentrations [49]. Most studies to date have focused on short-term measurements [50,51], which limits the accuracy of risk assessments. To identify areas with existing or expected elevated radon concentrations, long-term monitoring of radon variation is required, capturing daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual fluctuations. The results of long-term measurements can be used to calculate seasonal correction factors, which allow for estimating the expected annual average radon concentration in monitored premises. This is typically performed by multiplying short-term measurement results by an empirically determined correction factor [32,52,53].
The aim of this study was to identify and quantitatively assess the influence of external factors (meteorological and seasonal) on the temporal variations of radon emanation in indoor environments located near a major tectonic fault in the city of Almaty. This investigation seeks to improve the assessment of potential radiation risks from natural sources of ionizing radiation.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Location of the Study Area and Description of the Building

Measurements were conducted in the southern part of Almaty city (Republic of Kazakhstan) in a building located 235 m from the nearest active tectonic fault of the Zailiysky fault system. According to [54,55], radon concentrations in houses situated near such faults can reach elevated levels. The total population of Almaty as of 1 February 2025 is approximately 2,297,500 people [56]. The city features a continental climate: summers are dry and hot, while winters are cold and snowy [57]. The temperature regime of the city is primarily influenced by mountain-valley temperature inversions [58].
The object of study was the building of the Faculty of Physics and Technology (coordinates 43°13′25.8″ N 76°55′29″ E), consisting of a basement and five floors, located near the tectonic fault zone (Figure 1a). Radon equilibrium equivalent volumetric activity measurements were conducted in an isolated laboratory room with a volume of 54 m3 (floor area of 20 m2 and ceiling height of 2.7 m) located on the third floor (Figure 1b). The laboratory has three windows, one of which is located in an isolated room and remained closed during the measurement period. The other two windows were opened no more than once a day for about one hour to ventilate the main laboratory room.

2.2. Measurement of Indoor Radon and Statistical Analysis

Monitoring measurements of radon were conducted in the Faculty of Physics and Technology building at Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Figure 1) over a period of 30 months. The indoor radon concentration was determined by measuring the equivalent equilibrium volumetric activity (EEVA) of radon using the radon and its decay products radiometer RAMON-02A [59]. This instrument is suitable for measuring alpha-emitting radionuclide activity in both residential and industrial environments by sampling aerosol particles. The measurement range of radon EEVA extends from 1 to 5 × 105 Bq/m3, utilizing a semiconductor silicon detector with a p-n junction. The measurement time for the radiometer is (256 ± 1) seconds. The RAMON-02A undergoes annual calibration; the latest calibration with certification was carried out by the National Center of Expertise and Certification. According to the device’s technical documentation and verification results, its measurement sensitivity is 0.2 Bq·m−3·h−1, and the lower detection limit for a two-hour measurement at a 95% confidence level is less than 1 Bq/m3.
The RAMON-02A device was placed at the center of the room in a location not affected by air currents, at a distance of 3 m from windows and doors. Measurements were taken automatically every 2 h and stored in the device’s memory. The number of automatic measurements was limited by the length of the spectrometric filtering tape AFA-RSP, which allowed for 60 measurements. Upon transfer from the device, the obtained EEVA of radon data were converted into radon concentration using an equilibrium factor of 0.4 for dwellings [13], enabling a more accurate assessment of the actual radon levels in indoor air. Figure 2 presents the radon concentration measurement results obtained over 2.5 years.
Meteorological parameters were obtained from the official website of the National Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Kazakhstan—Kazhydromet [60]. The open-access database for meteorological observation results at Kazhydromet stations was established in accordance with the “Rules for Providing Information by the National Hydrometeorological Service,” approved by the Order of the Minister of Ecology, Geology, and Natural Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan No. 267 dated 23 July 2021 [61]. The RSE “Kazhydromet” network comprises 347 ground stations, including 228 manual stations (20 located within the city of Almaty) and 119 automatic meteorological stations (8 units in Almaty), of which data from 242 stations are utilized at the international level. Meteorological data for this study were obtained from the Almaty substation, situated 2.1 km from the radon measurement site. Data on radon concentration and meteorological parameters were collected and analyzed in four stages: daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual variations. Statistical analysis was performed using DATAtab software. Table 1 presents descriptive statistics of the activity concentrations of 222Rn (Bq/m3), temperature (°C), humidity (%), and pressure (mm Hg). Descriptive statistics include basic measures such as mean, median, standard deviation, variance, skewness, kurtosis, and others for the dataset.

3. Results and Discussion

A total of 10,128 measurements of radon equilibrium equivalent volumetric activity were conducted throughout the entire study period, based on which the corresponding radon concentrations were calculated. The frequency distribution of indoor radon concentrations follows a lognormal pattern, as shown in Figure 3, with a skewness of 1.55 and kurtosis of 4.7. Radon activity concentrations ranged from 1.29 ± 0.19 to 149 ± 22 Bq/m3, with an arithmetic mean of 28.7 ± 4.2 Bq/m3 and a geometric mean of 24.5 ± 3.6 Bq/m3.
The obtained mean value does not exceed the global average radon concentration—40 Bq/m3 for the arithmetic mean and 30 Bq/m3 for the geometric mean [62]. The obtained radon concentration values do not exceed the reference intervention level for average radon concentration established by the World Health Organization (100 Bq/m3) [63], as well as the regulatory levels set by the legislation of the Republic of Kazakhstan: 250 Bq/m3 for new buildings and 500 Bq/m3 for existing buildings [23].
Figure 4 shows the association between average radon concentration and the seasons of the year. An increase in radon levels is observed during the spring and winter months. As shown in Figure 4, the lowest seasonal concentration was recorded in summer at 23.5 ± 3.4 Bq/m3, while the highest concentration occurred in spring, reaching 31.7 ± 4.6 Bq/m3.
Figure 5 shows the variation in average monthly radon concentration. Fluctuations in the mean monthly radon levels were observed within the range of 20.8 ± 3.1 to 34.2 ± 4.9 Bq/m3.
The lowest radon concentration was recorded in August, at 20.8 ± 3.1 Bq/m3, while the highest values were observed in May (34.0 ± 4.9 Bq/m3) and December (34.2 ± 4.9 Bq/m3). The elevated radon concentration in May may be attributed to pronounced daily temperature fluctuations typically occurring during spring, particularly in May. These fluctuations contribute to the chimney effect in buildings, whereby warmer indoor air rises, creating a pressure difference that draws radon from the soil into the building through cracks and gaps in the foundation. Ventilation during this period may be limited, further enhancing radon accumulation indoors. In addition, heavy precipitation may saturate the soil and hinder radon release due to a capping effect [64].
Autocorrelation analysis was applied to the time series data to evaluate the statistical relationship between values within the same series taken at different time lags. In this study, the minimum time lag considered was one day. According to Chaddock’s scale for interpreting correlation strength, a strong temporal autocorrelation was observed. The autocorrelation analysis revealed distinct periodic patterns in radon concentration at various time intervals, including daily (24 h), four-day (4 days), weekly (7 days), seasonal (90 days), semiannual (180 days), and annual (365 days) cycles (Figure 6). Additionally, correlation analysis between radon concentration and lunar phases revealed a weak but statistically significant periodic relationship with a cycle of approximately 29.5 days.
The detected unidentified correlations with a period of approximately 150 days may indicate the presence of quasi-periodic geophysical processes affecting radon emanation in a tectonically active zone. Such cycles may be associated with slow crustal deformations, seasonal groundwater filtration, or the complex interplay of geomechanical and hydrogeological factors.

External Factors of Influence

Variations in radon concentration are influenced by environmental factors such as temperature, atmospheric pressure, and humidity. The primary natural factor is the air exchange rate, which depends on both temperature and pressure [44]. Therefore, for reliable time series analysis of radon concentration, it is essential to monitor changes in environmental parameters. Data on temperature, humidity, and pressure were obtained from the open-access meteorological database of the RSE “Kazhydromet” [65]. Figure 7 shows the variations in radon concentration, temperature, air pressure, and humidity observed at the Physics and Technology Faculty site over a 30-month period. The figure clearly demonstrates fluctuations in all parameters, although the nature of their interrelationships remains unclear.
To identify correlations between radon concentration and each studied environmental factor, an analysis was conducted examining changes in radon concentration relative to temperature, humidity, and air pressure. The resulting correlation coefficients between these parameters are presented in Figure 8.
In this study, a weak positive correlation (according to the Chaddock scale) was found between radon concentration and temperature fluctuations during the winter, spring, and summer periods. Correlation analysis revealed that the correlation coefficient between radon concentration and temperature was 0.2 in the winter season and 0.19 in the spring (Figure 8a,b). These findings are consistent with those reported in studies [66,67], which also observed a positive correlation between radon concentrations and temperature. However, during the summer period (Figure 8c), a very weak positive correlation was detected (correlation coefficient of 0.08), while in the autumn period (Figure 8d), a weak negative correlation (−0.05) was observed. This is most likely due to the lack of significant temperature differences between indoor and outdoor environments, a conclusion supported by studies [68,69,70,71].
A weak negative correlation was observed between radon concentration and humidity (Figure 8a–d), ranging from −0.01 (in summer and autumn) to −0.21 (in spring). Studies on this issue in global literature present contradictory results, reporting both negative correlations [71,72,73] and positive correlations [7,74].
A significant negative correlation was observed between radon concentration and atmospheric pressure during the winter period, with a correlation coefficient of −0.57 (Figure 8a). The correlation coefficients for the spring, summer, and autumn periods were −0.42, −0.24, and −0.28, respectively (Figure 8b, 8c, 8d). From this, it can be concluded that under our measurement conditions, atmospheric pressure has an influence on radon concentration. This is consistent with findings reported in studies [75,76].
The results of the correlation analysis between indoor radon concentration and meteorological parameters highlight the necessity to account for atmospheric pressure effects when planning programs for assessing and forecasting radon exposure during indoor monitoring. It should be noted that the use of national meteorological data as a macro-scale indicator for analyzing indoor radon concentrations has certain limitations. Indoor radon levels are largely determined by local factors such as geological substrate, building construction, ventilation characteristics, and occupant behavior (e.g., frequency of room airing). These factors were not accounted for in the present analysis, which may contribute significantly to the variability of observed radon concentrations. The current stage of the study aims to identify general trends and potential correlations at the macro level. Further investigation of micro-environmental factors directly regulating indoor radon dynamics is planned, using local measurements and more detailed radon transport models. This multi-level approach aligns with the methodological strategies presented in references [69,77,78,79,80].

4. Conclusions

The analysis of the results from a 2.5-year monitoring of radon concentration in a room located on the third floor near a major tectonic fault revealed that radon concentration follows a lognormal distribution, ranging from 1.29 ± 0.19 to 149 ± 22 Bq/m3, with an arithmetic mean of 28.7 ± 4.2 Bq/m3 and a geometric mean of 24.5 ± 3.6 Bq/m3. The obtained values are below the international reference levels (according to UNSCEAR: arithmetic mean of 40 Bq/m3 and geometric mean of 30 Bq/m3), indicating the absence of radiological hazard in the studied buildings.
Clear seasonal variations in radon concentration were observed: maximum values occur during the winter–spring period, and minimum values in summer. The peak concentration in May may be attributed to the “chimney effect” caused by temperature gradients and limited ventilation, as well as a possible “capping effect” resulting from soil saturation due to precipitation. However, these mechanisms require further validation that considers the building’s microclimatic and structural characteristics. Autocorrelation analysis revealed distinct temporal periodicities corresponding to daily, seasonal, and annual fluctuations (1, 90, 180, and 365 days), as well as a quasi-periodicity of approximately 150 days, which may indicate the influence of geophysical processes.
Correlation analysis with meteorological parameters showed a moderate negative correlation with atmospheric pressure, especially in winter (r = −0.57), and a weak positive correlation with temperature during colder seasons. The influence of humidity was found to be minor and inconsistent. Nevertheless, consideration of seasonal and climatic factors is essential when developing monitoring programs and forecasting radon exposure to estimate the expected annual dose of natural radiation.
This research is funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. AP23486701).

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, Y.Z. and V.D.; methodology, A.Y., Y.Z. and K.D.; software, V.D.; formal analysis, Y.Z., V.D. and Z.B.; investigation, Y.Z. and K.D.; resources, V.D. and Z.B.; data curation, Y.Z.; writing—original draft preparation, review and editing, Y.Z., A.Y., Z.B., K.D. and V.D.; visualization, K.D.; supervision, Y.Z.; funding acquisition, Y.Z. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research is funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. AP23486701).

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

The data presented in this study are available upon request from the corresponding author, Yuliya Zaripova. The data are not publicly available due to project requirement.

Acknowledgments

We gratefully acknowledge the editors and reviewers for their invaluable and constructive suggestions.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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Atmosphere 16 01027 g001
Figure 1. Measurement location: (a) Faculty of Physics and Technology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University Campus, Almaty (is indicated by the white dot; the yellow line shows the nearby tectonic fault, and the red lines indicate its width), and (b) the sketch of the Faculty of Physics and Technology with the location of the studied office (red dot) in the third-floor plan.
Figure 1. Measurement location: (a) Faculty of Physics and Technology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University Campus, Almaty (is indicated by the white dot; the yellow line shows the nearby tectonic fault, and the red lines indicate its width), and (b) the sketch of the Faculty of Physics and Technology with the location of the studied office (red dot) in the third-floor plan.
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Figure 2. Dynamics of indoor 222Rn concentration changes in air based on long-term monitoring data.
Figure 2. Dynamics of indoor 222Rn concentration changes in air based on long-term monitoring data.
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Figure 3. Frequency distribution of indoor radon concentrations.
Figure 3. Frequency distribution of indoor radon concentrations.
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Figure 4. Seasonal variation of average radon concentration.
Figure 4. Seasonal variation of average radon concentration.
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Figure 5. Monthly variation of average radon concentration.
Figure 5. Monthly variation of average radon concentration.
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Figure 6. Autocorrelation analysis results for radon concentration.
Figure 6. Autocorrelation analysis results for radon concentration.
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Figure 7. Radon concentration, temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure data.
Figure 7. Radon concentration, temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure data.
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Figure 8. Correlation coefficients between radon concentration and temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure by season: (a) winter; (b) spring; (c) summer; (d) autumn.
Figure 8. Correlation coefficients between radon concentration and temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure by season: (a) winter; (b) spring; (c) summer; (d) autumn.
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Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of 222Rn, Temperature, Humidity, and Pressure.
Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of 222Rn, Temperature, Humidity, and Pressure.
Radon Con.
(Bq·m−3)		Temperature,
°C		Humidity,
%		Pressure,
mm Hg
Number of data10128721172097214
Minimum1.29-27.813903.2
Median25.8510.463920.4
Arithmetic Mean28.7010.1363.23920.93
Geometric Mean24.45-58.76920.7
Maximum147.1237.6100941
Variance258.85134.06463.7238.77
Std. dev16.0911.5821.536.23
Skewness1.55---
Kurtosis4.7---
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Zaripova, Y.; Dyachkov, V.; Biyasheva, Z.; Dyussebayeva, K.; Yushkov, A. Long-Term Monitoring and Statistical Analysis of Indoor Radon Concentration near the Almaty Tectonic Fault. Atmosphere 2025, 16, 1027. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16091027

AMA Style

Zaripova Y, Dyachkov V, Biyasheva Z, Dyussebayeva K, Yushkov A. Long-Term Monitoring and Statistical Analysis of Indoor Radon Concentration near the Almaty Tectonic Fault. Atmosphere. 2025; 16(9):1027. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16091027

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zaripova, Yuliya, Vyacheslav Dyachkov, Zarema Biyasheva, Kuralay Dyussebayeva, and Alexandr Yushkov. 2025. "Long-Term Monitoring and Statistical Analysis of Indoor Radon Concentration near the Almaty Tectonic Fault" Atmosphere 16, no. 9: 1027. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16091027

APA Style

Zaripova, Y., Dyachkov, V., Biyasheva, Z., Dyussebayeva, K., & Yushkov, A. (2025). Long-Term Monitoring and Statistical Analysis of Indoor Radon Concentration near the Almaty Tectonic Fault. Atmosphere, 16(9), 1027. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16091027

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