The Impact of Urbanization on Food Security: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

Food security has received extensive academic attention in recent years. However, research results analyzing cultivated land pressure from the perspective of urbanization are relatively few. This study used Jiangsu Province as the study area and analyzed the spatial pattern evolution of cultivated land pressure from 2005 to 2019 by constructing a formula for a cultivated land pressure index. The study used a spatial econometric approach to analyze the spatial relationship between urbanization and cultivated land pressure. Based on the spatial Durbin model, the impact of urbanization on the pressure on cultivated land is analyzed. According to the results, Jiangsu Province showed an obvious north–south divergence in the spatial distribution of the cultivated land pressure index, with the low-value areas of the cultivated land pressure index mainly distributed in northern and central Jiangsu, and the high-value areas mainly distributed in southern Jiangsu. The urbanization level and cultivated land pressure level in Jiangsu Province showed obvious spatial clustering characteristics, and there was a certain overlap between the high- and low-value clustering areas of the two, with significant positive spatial correlation features. The total urbanization had no significant effect on the cultivated land pressure. Population urbanization and industry urbanization showed a significant negative effect on cultivated land pressure in Jiangsu Province, while land urbanization showed a positive effect. Both population and land urbanization had a significant negative spatial spillover effect on cultivated land pressure. Plausible explanations of these results were provided and policy implications were drawn.