Population, Land, and the Development of the Commodity Economy: Evidence from Qing Dynasty China

Population growth exacerbates the pressure on land carrying capacity, affecting the sustainability of agricultural production, and also impacts non-agricultural industries. This paper utilizes grain price data from southern China during the Qing Dynasty (1776–1910) to examine the impact of population and land pressure on the development of the commodity economy under the “involution” of smallholder agriculture. This study finds that under conditions of stagnant technological advancement and limited natural resources, population growth during the Qing Dynasty created significant “Malthusian” population pressure. This pressure on land first resulted in the over-concentration of agricultural labor and saturation of the farming population. Surplus labor, unable to be absorbed by agriculture, shifted to non-agricultural sectors, engaging in the transportation and trade of grain. The pressure on land carrying capacity facilitated the cultivation and processing of cash crops, and product trade was supported by efficient waterway transportation. These activities generated commercial profits that alleviated survival pressures and promoted the prosperity of the commodity economy. However, this prosperity did not accompany significant productivity improvements; instead, it was a product of “involution” agriculture under high population density pressures.