Insights into Land-Use and Demographical Changes: Runoff and Erosion Modifications in the Highlands of Serbia
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Research Area
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Assessment of Runoff Process Modifications
3.2. Erosion Assessment
3.3. Change Indices
3.4. Statistical Analysis
- The Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was used to quantify the degree of dependence between runoff and selected indicators. The results of this analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between the selected indicators (α < 0.05).
- The next step involved the use of cluster analysis to differentiate the watersheds spatially based on four selected variables: CN change, Index Z, Index RP, and Index AgL). Cluster analysis (CA) is a multivariate statistical analysis method commonly used for management strategies in small catchment areas [90]. An agglomerative hierarchical method was applied, where each watershed initially stands alone as its group. The method aims to group different objects (watersheds). The method aims to maximize the similarity between watersheds within the same group [91]. As a result, watershed groups exhibit a high degree of internal (within-group) homogeneity and external (across-group) heterogeneity [92]. A hierarchical tree (dendrogram) visually represents these spatial similarities, showing the clusters determined by the analysis. The Ward method of hierarchical clustering with square Euclidean distance was employed [90].
- Since it was unclear after cluster analysis which variables were decisive for grouping the watersheds, PCA was applied. PCA identifies a small number of derived variables from a larger set of original variables [93,94,95]. The goal is to determine the minimum number of factors that explain the largest proportion of the total variance. In PCA, input variables are replaced by principal components, with each cluster from the cluster analysis corresponding to a principal component. The Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy and Bartlett’s test for sphericity [96,97] were used to assess the suitability of the data for PCA. Bartlett’s sphericity test with a significance level of 95% (p < 0.05) confirms the suitability for PCA [94]. Therefore, PCA was used to perform a more detailed analysis of the clustering factors, ultimately filtering out the most important variable for each cluster.
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Runoff Changes
- (A)
- A dominant decline in curve numbers was obtained in more than 20 watersheds located in the border areas of Eastern and Southeastern Serbia (both with an average CNDav of −1.09). These regions have experienced continuous depopulation over the last several decades [34]. The most significant CN changes in Southeastern Serbia were recorded in the Toplodolska River (CND = −2.34) and the Korbevačka River (CND = −1.98). Generally, this decline was associated with the abandonment of arable lands, which over time transitioned into woodland shrub and forest areas, potentially contributing to a slight decrease in peak discharges.
- (B)
- Minor changes in curve numbers were, on average, dominant for more than 10 watersheds in the Drina River basin. Similarly, minor changes were obtained in watersheds in Southwestern Serbia. In particular, the watersheds of Crni Rzav, Štira, Pilica, Rogačica, and Raška showed no change in hydrological response between 1990 and 2018.
Id | Watershed | River Basin | Profile | Watershed Area (km2) | CN Change | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern Serbia | 1 | Boljetinska | Danube | Boljetin | 75.94 | −0.70 |
2 | Podvrška | Danube | Milutinovac | 60.89 | −0.98 | |
3 | Velika Kamenička | Danube | Velesnica | 69.66 | −0.66 | |
4 | Zamna | Danube | Mihajlovac | 186.92 | −0.15 | |
5 | Koritska | Danube | Petruša | 87.05 | −1.21 | |
6 | Jelašnička | Danube | Jelašnica | 51.08 | −0.94 | |
7 | Sinja reka | Danube | Berčinovac | 11.84 | −3.21 | |
8 | Trgoviški Timok | Danube | Donja Kamenica | 361.28 | −0.84 | |
Average CN change | −1.09 | |||||
Southeastern Serbia | 9 | Toplodolska | Južna Morava | Mrtvački most | 137.81 | −2.34 |
10 | Dojkinačka | Južna Morava | V. Ržana | 137.43 | −1.60 | |
11 | Rosomačka | Južna Morava | Slavinja | 23.42 | −1.28 | |
12 | Visočica | Južna Morava | Braćevci | 224.85 | 0.26 | |
13 | Poganovska reka | Južna Morava | Poganovo | 41.17 | −1.16 | |
14 | Prisjanska | Južna Morava | Rasnica | 52.48 | −1.48 | |
15 | Lužnica | Južna Morava | Svođe | 323 | −0.13 | |
16 | Ravna reka | Južna Morava | Strelac | 5.59 | −1.42 | |
17 | Vlasina | Južna Morava | Svođe | 430.53 | −0.50 | |
18 | Jerma | Južna Morava | Strezimirovci | 110.85 | −0.72 | |
19 | Vrla | Južna Morava | Surdulica | 76.69 | −1.11 | |
20 | Romanovska | Južna Morava | D. Romanovce | 17.44 | −0.61 | |
21 | Masurička | Južna Morava | Masurica | 46.15 | −0.59 | |
22 | Jelašnica | Južna Morava | Jelašnica | 68.18 | −1.28 | |
23 | Korbevačka | Južna Morava | Klisurica | 56.43 | −1.98 | |
24 | Banjska | Južna Morava | Vr. Banja | 108.37 | −1.21 | |
25 | Ljubatska | Dragovištica | Bosilegrad | 199.01 | −0.33 | |
Average CN change | −1.09 | |||||
Southwest Serbia | 26 | Jošanica | Zapadna Morava | Novi Pazar | 191.71 | −0.07 |
27 | Godulja | Zapadna Morava | Špiljani | 99.71 | −0.33 | |
28 | Vidrenjak | Zapadna Morava | Krona | 137.88 | 0.40 | |
29 | Raška | Zapadna Morava | Novi Pazar | 471.68 | 0.02 | |
Average CN change | 0.004 | |||||
Western Serbia | 30 | Poblačnica | Drina | Olandići | 342.93 | −0.23 |
31 | Jablanica | Drina | Ž. st. Jablanica | 41.89 | 0.15 | |
32 | Crni Rzav | Drina | Panjak | 201.29 | 0.00 | |
33 | Kamišna | Drina | Kotroman | 68.26 | 0.25 | |
34 | Pilica | Drina | Bajina Bašta | 70.17 | 0.01 | |
35 | Rogačica | Drina | Rogačica | 204.41 | −0.06 | |
36 | Trešnjica | Drina | D. Trešnjica | 104.39 | −0.70 | |
37 | Bukovička reka | Drina | Vrhpolje | 16.11 | −0.43 | |
38 | Gračanička | Drina | Gračanica | 54.45 | −0.72 | |
39 | Boranjska reka | Drina | Amajić | 46.23 | 0.23 | |
40 | Radaljska | Drina | Radalj | 46.93 | 0.20 | |
41 | Štira | Drina | Loznica | 37.1 | 0.00 | |
Average CN change | −0.11 |
4.2. Changes in the Erosion Processes
4.3. Spatial Differentiation of Watersheds—The Interactive and Individual Impact of Selected Variables
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | CN Change | Index Z | Index AgL | Index RP | CN Change | Index Z | Index AgL | Index RP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CN change | 1 | 0 | ||||||
Index Z | 0.847 | 1 | <0.0001 | 0 | ||||
Index AgL | 0.491 | 0.580 | 1 | 0.0011 | <0.0001 | 0 | ||
Index RP | 0.520 | 0.629 | 0.650 | 1 | 0.0005 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0 |
Variable | D1 (%) | D2 (%) | D3 (%) | D4 (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
CN change | 62.27 (0.878) | 4.04 | 4.38 | 6.86 |
Index Z | 29.88 | 6.84 | 8.97 | 83.03 (0.414) |
Index AgL | 3.57 | 79.29 (0.833) | 9.05 | 4.42 |
Index RP | 4.29 | 9.83 | 77.59 (0.808) | 5.69 |
Cluster/Id | Watershed | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1/1 | Boljetinska reka | 0.1999 | −0.1594 | 0.0977 | −0.9710 |
C1/3 | Velika Kamenička | 0.1732 | −1.7810 | 1.6028 | −0.4786 |
C1/4 | Zamna | 0.9864 | −0.2913 | −0.1682 | −0.5214 |
C1/2 | Podvrška | −0.3161 | −0.6177 | 0.3585 | −0.1738 |
C1/6 | Jelašnička | −0.2049 | 0.8880 | −0.6241 | −0.9903 |
C1/12 | Visočica | −0.2687 | 2.5355 | −1.8966 | −0.4537 |
C1/11 | Rosomačka | −0.6696 | 1.0370 | −1.1265 | −0.6820 |
C1/22 | Jelašnica | −0.8771 | 0.3448 | 0.8865 | −1.1850 |
C1/15 | Lužnica | 1.0280 | −0.7158 | −0.4990 | 0.2680 |
C1/20 | Romanovska | 0.3919 | 0.5456 | −1.6456 | −0.0639 |
C1/21 | Masurička | 0.1433 | −0.1164 | 1.0036 | −0.9830 |
C1/17 | Vlasina | 0.5028 | 0.3690 | −1.0762 | −0.2909 |
C1/25 | Ljubatska | 0.8601 | −0.5686 | −0.7857 | −0.1617 |
C2/8 | Trgoviški Timok | 0.1974 | −0.7228 | −0.6420 | −0.4891 |
C2/5 | Koritska | −0.4730 | −0.5756 | −0.6541 | 0.0799 |
C2/7 | Sinja reka | −3.9914 | −0.6878 | 0.5083 | 2.2138 |
C2/9 | Toplodolska reka | −2.2288 | −0.6507 | −0.2408 | 0.4043 |
C2/10 | Dojkinačka | −1.1121 | −0.6349 | −0.5827 | 0.4792 |
C2/18 | Jerma | 0.6250 | −1.2654 | −0.4228 | −1.4356 |
C2/13 | Poganovska reka | −0.1488 | −0.4114 | −0.4894 | −1.5743 |
C2/23 | Korbevačka | −1.5908 | 0.1521 | −0.1043 | −1.2754 |
C2/14 | Prisjanska | −0.5942 | −0.6965 | −0.6268 | −1.1568 |
C2/16 | Ravna reka | −0.7003 | −0.6992 | −0.5904 | −0.2241 |
C2/24 | Banjska | −0.3260 | −0.3219 | 0.2468 | −1.9888 |
C2/19 | Vrla | −0.1653 | −0.7410 | −0.0723 | −1.2433 |
C3/29 | Raška | 0.5437 | 0.9240 | 0.6850 | 0.6120 |
C3/26 | Jošanica | 0.3800 | −0.9164 | 2.8868 | 0.2966 |
C3/35 | Rogačica | 0.7606 | 0.2832 | −0.5220 | 1.0425 |
C3/36 | Trešnjica | −0.4215 | 0.7649 | −0.3300 | 1.6418 |
C3/40 | Radaljska | 1.2450 | −1.3626 | 0.8993 | 0.6618 |
C3/30 | Poblačnica | 0.5256 | 0.4652 | −1.0454 | 1.4050 |
C3/39 | Boranjska | 1.3925 | −1.0518 | −0.0302 | 0.8595 |
C3/37 | Bukovička reka | 0.1068 | −0.2366 | 0.0139 | 1.6373 |
C3/38 | Gračanička reka | −0.4084 | 0.3437 | −0.1437 | 1.6845 |
C3/31 | Jablanica | 1.2039 | −0.0557 | −0.7800 | 0.9921 |
C3/33 | Kamišna | 1.2375 | 0.4825 | −0.7568 | 0.9195 |
C3/34 | Pilica | 0.7053 | 0.4867 | 0.1365 | 0.8419 |
C3/41 | Štira | 0.8148 | −1.0126 | 0.8696 | 1.0385 |
C4/28 | Vidrenjak | 0.7446 | 2.1180 | 1.8185 | −0.2965 |
C4/27 | Godulja | −0.3699 | 2.3373 | 1.9070 | −0.2791 |
C4/32 | Crni Rzav | 0.0984 | 2.2155 | 1.9349 | −0.1603 |
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Petrović, A.M.; Manojlović, S.; Srejić, T.; Zlatanović, N. Insights into Land-Use and Demographical Changes: Runoff and Erosion Modifications in the Highlands of Serbia. Land 2024, 13, 1342. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091342
Petrović AM, Manojlović S, Srejić T, Zlatanović N. Insights into Land-Use and Demographical Changes: Runoff and Erosion Modifications in the Highlands of Serbia. Land. 2024; 13(9):1342. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091342
Chicago/Turabian StylePetrović, Ana M., Sanja Manojlović, Tanja Srejić, and Nikola Zlatanović. 2024. "Insights into Land-Use and Demographical Changes: Runoff and Erosion Modifications in the Highlands of Serbia" Land 13, no. 9: 1342. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091342