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Land, Volume 13, Issue 9 (September 2024) – 1 article

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17 pages, 9822 KiB  
Article
Vegetation Dynamics and Driving Mechanisms Considering Time-Lag and Accumulation Effects: A Case Study of Hubao–Egyu Urban Agglomeration
by Xi Liu, Guoming Du, Xiaodie Zhang, Xing Li, Shining Lv and Yinghao He
Land 2024, 13(9), 1337; https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091337 (registering DOI) - 23 Aug 2024
Abstract
The Hubao–Egyu Urban Agglomeration (HBEY) was a crucial ecological barrier in northern China. To accurately assess the impact of climate change on vegetation growth, it is essential to consider the effects of time lag and accumulation. In this study, we used a newly [...] Read more.
The Hubao–Egyu Urban Agglomeration (HBEY) was a crucial ecological barrier in northern China. To accurately assess the impact of climate change on vegetation growth, it is essential to consider the effects of time lag and accumulation. In this study, we used a newly proposed kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) as the metric for vegetation condition, and employed partial correlation analysis to ascertain the lag and accumulation period of vegetation response to climate by considering different scenarios (No/Lag/Acc/LagAcc) and various combinations. Moreover, we further modified the traditional residual analysis model. The results are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2022, the HBEY experienced extensive and persistent greening, with a kNDVI slope of 0.0163/decade. Precipitation was identified as the dominant climatic factor influencing vegetation dynamics. (2) In HBEY, the lag effect of temperature was most distinct, particularly affecting the vegetation in cropland and grassland. The accumulation effect of precipitation was pronounced in grassland. (3) Incorporating lag and accumulation effects into models increases the explanatory power of climate impacts on vegetation dynamics by 6.95% compared to traditional residual models. Our findings hold essential implications for regional ecological regulation and climate change response research. Full article
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