Green and Low Carbon Development Performance in Farmland Use Regulation: A Case Study of Liyang City, China

Abstract

Farmland use regulation strictly regulates the conversion of agricultural land for other agricultural purposes and the construction of agricultural facilities, thereby optimizing the land use pattern in rural areas. However, different measures and intensities of farmland use regulation can affect the overall performance of green and low-carbon development in rural areas. This study utilizes system dynamics modeling and simulation to conduct a case study based on current land use data from 10 towns in Liyang City, China. The empirical results indicate the following: (1) Based on comprehensive measurements of green and low carbon development performance, Liyang City exhibits a pattern of higher indices in the south and lower indices in the north. Towns such as Tianmu Lake, Daibu, and Shezhu show relatively high average comprehensive indices of 0.31, 0.30, and 0.28, significantly higher than other towns. (2) Simulation of farmland use regulation’s impact on green and low carbon development performance reveals that Scenario One, involving additional construction land occupying farmland, achieves a comprehensive index of only 0.23, significantly lower than the other scenarios. (3) Based on calculations and field surveys, Liyang City’s villages are categorized into four types, with the largest number being industry-integrated villages (94 villages). Accordingly, policies for farmland use regulation are designed for different village types. Therefore, future farmland use regulation should be tailored with differentiated institutional designs according to the development needs of different villages. This study’s findings provide insights into green and low-carbon development in rural areas.

1. Introduction

Farmland use regulation represents a targeted measure in China’s strategy for farmland protection and a significant enhancement in farmland quality management. It is also an essential requirement and inevitable choice for realizing the institutional framework of farmland protection, rural revitalization strategy, and ecological civilization construction in the new era. Farmland use regulation establishes a special protection system for permanent basic farmland and controls the conversion of general agricultural land to other agricultural uses. It effectively regulates the randomness, dispersion, and externalities of land use changes by implementing rational planning to safeguard farmland resources, demonstrating mandatory and regulatory characteristics in terms of land use policies and systems. In 2021, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration jointly issued the “Notice on Strict Farmland Use Regulation”, decisively halting non-agricultural use of farmland and preventing the transformation of farmland away from food production, thus rigorously enforcing farmland use regulation. Compared to traditional land use regulation, farmland use regulation features clearer objectives and greater specificity, and it is anticipated to achieve more effective outcomes in land use management. Furthermore, as China advances its strategies in national spatial planning, food security, carbon neutrality, and other areas in the new era, the concept and scope of farmland use regulation are increasingly broadened. Permanent basic farmland and farmland contaminated by heavy metals are receiving growing attention in terms of use regulation. From this perspective, farmland use regulation is expected to have a more comprehensive, direct, and systematic impact on regional ecological protection and food security, offering crucial opportunities and avenues for addressing current challenges in regional green and low-carbon development.

Farmland use regulation for agriculture will inevitably have a more systematic, direct, and comprehensive impact on regional ecological conservation and food security. It also provides a crucial opportunity and pathway for addressing the practical challenges of achieving green, low-carbon development performance in the new era. In Jiangsu Province, implementing the strictest agricultural land protection system marks a new starting point for achieving high-quality green, low-carbon development. How can innovative farmland use regulation to further explore the mechanisms influencing green, low-carbon development performance to achieve regional sustainable development? This is a key issue that urgently needs addressing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and beyond concerning the optimization of regional resource utilization; ecological conservation; food security; and high-quality, low-carbon development processes. China’s development goals, along with those of Europe and North America, emphasize regional sustainable development and green industrial strategies [1], underscoring the international and widespread nature of research on green and low-carbon development for arable land. Currently, rural areas in Jiangsu Province face serious issues such as non-food crop cultivation, non-agricultural use of land, and wastage of agricultural resources. The task of improving the farmland use regulation system remains challenging. Liyang City, located in southern Jiangsu Province, has abundant arable land but faces the challenge of transitioning from traditional agriculture to modern farming or other economic forms. This makes it a representative area for studying farmland use regulation. Therefore, it is particularly necessary and timely to conduct research on the role of enhancing green, low-carbon development performance through farmland use regulation in typical townships of Liyang City, Jiangsu Province. This research aims to explore the mechanisms through which farmland use regulation affects green, low-carbon development performance; simulate and design policies based on the enhancement of green, low-carbon development performance through farmland use regulation; and construct an optimized regulation system for farmland use regulation.

2. Literature Review

Currently, research focuses on the fundamental concepts of farmland protection within land use regulation, institutional design, influencing factors, performance evaluation, and other related themes. Scholars generally agree that farmland use regulation revolves around protecting both the quantity and quality of farmland, prompting interdisciplinary innovation through resource integration [2,3,4]. In terms of institutional design, research primarily explores approaches such as ecological compensation for farmland protection [5,6], flexible regulatory frameworks [7], and management practices [8] to innovate farmland use regulation implementation. Regarding influencing factors, discussions center on aspects like farmland pollution levels [9,10], supply capacity [11], ecological functions [12,13], comprehensive benefits [14], and farmland property rights [15]. Performance evaluation employs methodologies including econometric models, geographic information systems, and dynamic monitoring systems to construct evaluation frameworks emphasizing green development effects, low carbon production performance levels, farmland quality improvement, and suitability for non-agricultural transitions [16,17,18]

The performance of green and low-carbon development serves as a crucial basis for evaluating the effectiveness of farmland use regulation, providing valuable insights for refining and enhancing various measures in this regard. This topic has long been a focal point in both academic and policy circles. Scholars primarily explore the fundamental connotations, background formation, quantitative evaluation, and impact mechanisms of land development performance under the perspective and principles of green and low-carbon development. Regarding fundamental connotations, scholars have defined the conceptual meanings of land utilization performance [19], land protection performance [20], land policy performance [21], and land transfer performance [22]. Concerning the background formation, discussions include the demands of farmland use regulation based on requirements for food security, carbon neutrality, and sustainable development goals [23,24], as well as interpretations from the perspectives of farmer rights and satisfaction regarding the necessity and feasibility thereof [4,25]. In terms of quantitative evaluation, methods such as Data Envelopment Analysis, Cobb-Douglas production functions, and stochastic frontier production functions are predominantly employed to assess aspects like land utilization efficiency under environmental constraints, land carbon emission efficiency, and the environmental benefits of land development [7,26,27]. Regarding impact mechanisms, the research encompasses quantitative explorations at macro levels, such as low-carbon development and sustainable intensive utilization [28], as well as systematic analyses of micro-level indicators, such as land resource production and ecological factors [29]. In China’s pursuit of the strictest land protection system and the realization of a new starting point for green, low-carbon, and high-quality development, how can further research into the green and low-carbon development performance of farmland use regulation contribute to achieving regional sustainable development? This is a critical issue that needs to be addressed during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period and beyond, concerning the optimization of regional resource utilization, ecological protection, food security, and the process of high-quality, low-carbon development. Therefore, conducting research on the green and low-carbon development performance and optimized regulation of farmland use regulation is particularly necessary and timely. Such studies should explore the impact mechanisms of green and low-carbon development performance in farmland use regulation and conduct simulation and policy design based on the enhancement of green and low-carbon development performance in farmland use regulation. Consequently, research related to the performance of green and low-carbon development in farmland use regulation should garner significant attention from both academia and policy makers.

As the above-mentioned research continues to deepen, many scholars have grounded the benefits brought by farmland use regulation in specific performance evaluation domains such as land utilization [30], ecological compensation [30], green development [31], and non-agricultural conversion [32]. They explore the factors, implementation mechanisms, and pathways of farmland use regulation under different performance evaluation domains. Regarding the green and low-carbon development performance of farmland use regulation, scholars primarily focus on three aspects: firstly, analyzing the impact of farmland use regulation on agricultural production [33], farmer welfare [34], ecological conservation [35], and other aspects; secondly, utilizing technologies such as remote sensing, laboratory analysis, and econometric models to analyze changes in land elements such as soil, landforms, tenure, utilization, and infrastructure during the farmland use regulation process [36,37]; thirdly, investigating the influence of natural environment, socio-economic development level, agricultural base conditions, and locational factors on land development performance [38,39], as well as the capability of green and low-carbon development of land under the background of farmland use regulation [40,41]. The studies on the first two aspects explore the indirect relationship between farmland use regulation and green and low-carbon development performance, aiding in a profound understanding and grasp of the interactions among various influencing factors in farmland use regulation and the theoretical and practical basis for constructing an evaluation system for green and low-carbon development performance in farmland use regulation. The third aspect directly manifests the relationship between the two. These efforts underscore the necessity of integrating diverse perspectives and methodologies to comprehensively evaluate and optimize the performance of green and low-carbon development in farmland use regulation, thus contributing to sustainable regional development.

3. Methods

3.1. Research Object

(1) Research Subjects

The research subjects of this study are 10 towns and streets in Liyang City, Jiangsu Province, China, including Licheng Town, Daitou Town, Kunlun Street, Shanghuang Town, Daibu Town, and Tianmu Lake Town.

(2) Data and Information Acquisition

The required data for this project mainly include remote sensing images, land use vector maps, socio-economic development, ecological environment data, and other related materials. Specifically, the remote sensing images are global high-precision land cover products with a spatial resolution of 30 m, sourced from the website (https://www.gscloud.cn/, accessed on 23 September 2023). The land use vector maps were provided by the Liyang City Natural Resources Bureau. Socio-economic development data were obtained from the Liyang City Bureau of Statistics, while ecological environment data were sourced from the annual ecological environment reports of Liyang City and on-site sampling and testing data. All data were updated to the year 2023.

Preliminary analysis of the acquired data identified 10 townships and streets in Liyang City, Jiangsu Province, namely Licheng Town, Daitou Town, Kunlun Street, Shanghuang Town, Daibu Town, Tianmu Lake Town, Shangxing Town, Zhuze Town, Bieqiao Town, and Nandu Town, where non-food crop cultivation on farmland is particularly severe. These areas were selected as case study zones.

3.2. Research Approach

To achieve the research objectives, this project focuses on two core variables: “farmland use regulation” and “performance of farmland green low-carbon development”. It addresses the critical issue of how farmland use regulation can enhance the performance of green, low-carbon development on farmland. Ultimately, it establishes a theoretical and methodological research framework termed “Optimization and Regulation of Farmland Use Regulation for Green Low-Carbon Development Performance”, integrating problem identification, analysis of influencing mechanisms, scenario simulation, and pathway selection. The technical roadmap is illustrated in Figure 1.

3.3. Research Methods

Based on the fundamental concept of green low-carbon development performance on farmland, this study establishes a measurement index system integrating “process + outcome” and a comprehensive evaluation model based on the Dempster–Shafer evidence synthesis method (Figure 2). Integrating with the theoretical analysis framework of enhancing green low-carbon development performance through farmland use regulation, this study utilized system dynamics methodology and the Vensim PLE 7.3.5 software platform to construct causal loops and visualize path simulation models across different temporal and spatial scales (Figure 3). Building upon this foundation, typical townships in Liyang City, Jiangsu Province, were taken as examples. The core elements influencing green low-carbon development performance during farmland use regulation were set as scenario variables. By continuously adjusting parameter values, multiple scenario sets were established to predict and evaluate the overall green low-carbon development performance of farmland, as well as the responses of internal economic, social, residential, security, and ecological factors (direction and intensity). Subsequently, based on the simulation results of the temporal and spatial evolution and development trends of green low-carbon development goals and their constituent factors, optimal scenario sets of supply elements for improving green low-carbon development performance through farmland use regulation were identified.

3.3.1. Dempster–Shafer Evidence Synthesis Method

The Dempster–Shafer evidence synthesis method belongs to the field of information fusion and is capable of integrating subjective and objective information effectively [42]. It finds applications in target recognition, climate analysis, environmental forecasting, and other domains. In this study, the Dempster–Shafer evidence synthesis method was utilized to construct a comprehensive decision evaluation index model for farmland use regulation under the guidance of green low-carbon development.

Based on the principles of green and low-carbon development and existing research [7,26,27], representative indicators related to productivity, ecology, and industry in Liyang City were collected through field investigations. The model (Figure 2) integrates indicators from aspects such as productivity (agricultural development foundation, agricultural infrastructure, food quality and safety, etc.), ecology (area of ecological protection zones, forest and grassland area, water conservation area, etc.), and industry (rural tourism, industrial integration, etc.). These indicators facilitate the comprehensive evaluation of farmland use regulation aimed at promoting green, low-carbon development.

Specific calculation methods are as follows:

(1) Target layer A, criterion layer B, basic layer C;

(2) The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to determine the weights W_i and W_xj of the criteria layer B and the indicators of the basic layer C;

(3) The C_ir(j) probability assignment distribution calculation formula is as follows:

$$C_{ir\left(j\right)}=\left\{{\mathrm{H}}_n,{\mathrm{B}}_{n,ir},n=1,\dots ,p\right\}$$

$$\left\{{\mathrm{H}}_n\right\}: {\mathsf{\gamma }}_{n,ir}={\displaystyle \frac{{\mathrm{M}}_{n,ir\left(N\right)}}{1-{\mathrm{M}}_{H,ir\left(N\right)}}}$$

$$\left\{\mathrm{H}\right\}: {\mathsf{\gamma }}_{A,ir\left(\mathrm{N}\right)}={\displaystyle \frac{{\overrightarrow{\mathrm{M}}}_{n,ir\left(N\right)}}{1-{\overrightarrow{\mathrm{M}}}_{H,ir\left(N\right)}}}$$

(4) The minimum and maximum values of the utility function are as follows:

$$R_{min}\left(B_i\right)=\sum _{n=1}^p{\mathsf{\gamma }}_{n,ir\left(\mathrm{N}\right)}Q\left(H_1\right)+{\mathsf{\gamma }}_{H,ir\left(\mathrm{N}\right)}Q\left(H_1\right)$$

$$R_{max}\left(B_i\right)=\sum _{n=1}^p{\mathsf{\gamma }}_{n,ir\left(\mathrm{N}\right)}Q\left(H_1\right)+{\mathsf{\gamma }}_{H,ir\left(\mathrm{N}\right)}Q\left(H_p\right)$$

(5) Comprehensive index of green and low-carbon development performance under farmland use regulation:

$$R\left(A\right)=\sum _{i=1}^i{\mathrm{W}}_{i}R\left(B_i\right)$$

3.3.2. Simulation and Modeling Schemes

This study utilized a system dynamics model to simulate the performance of green and low-carbon development under various farmland use regulation measures. Initially, the performance of green and low-carbon development was categorized into three subsystems: productivity performance (PP), ecological performance (EP), and industrial performance (IP). Using the system dynamics model, system relationship diagrams, causal loop diagrams, and factor flow diagrams were constructed for scenario simulation analysis. By integrating scenario typification analysis, which includes identifying scenario issues, factors, and settings, with both prospective forward analysis and retrospective scenario analysis for quantitative analysis, effective spatial-temporal evolution and development trend forecasting of green and low-carbon development performance was conducted. This provides a basis for designing policy proposals for farmland use regulation. Detailed simulation and modeling schemes are illustrated in Figure 3.

4. Results

This study adheres to a research approach integrating “problem discovery, impact analysis, scenario simulation, and path selection”. Based on measuring the benefits of farmland use regulation and the level of green and low-carbon development performance on farmland, this study investigates the mechanisms by which farmland use regulation enhances green and low-carbon development performance. It further reveals the endogenous dynamics of farmland use regulation based on green and low-carbon development, guiding the optimization of regulatory policies and path selection.

4.1. Measurement and Simulation of Green and Low-Carbon Development Performance under Farmland Use Regulation

This study, based on a comprehensive assessment of green and low-carbon development performance in farmland use regulation, used system dynamics simulation to model the effects of regulatory measures under various scenarios. The goal was to identify the optimal regulatory strategies and provide insights for developing targeted control measures.

4.1.1. Comprehensive Measurement Results of Green and Low-Carbon Development Performance under Farmland Use Regulation

According to the comprehensive measurement scheme for green and low-carbon development performance on farmland, combined with collected indicator data, the productivity performance, ecological performance, and industrial performance of Liyang City were calculated comprehensively. The final result is the comprehensive index of green and low-carbon development performance, as shown in Figure 4. From the figure, it can be observed that Liyang City’s productivity performance generally exhibits a west–high and east–low spatial pattern. Specifically, the average productivity performance in Shezhu Town and Bieqiao Town is the highest, at 0.18 and 0.13, respectively, significantly higher than other townships. Regarding ecological performance, Liyang City shows a south–high and north–low trend. Tianmu Lake Town and Daibu Town have the highest average ecological performance, at 0.18 and 0.11, respectively, significantly higher than other townships. In terms of industrial performance, Liyang City’s distribution is relatively even, with Daibu Town having the highest average industrial performance at 0.1. Shezhu Town, Shanghuang Town, and Tianmu Lake Town have average industrial performances around 0.5, slightly higher than other townships.

From the perspective of the comprehensive index of green and low-carbon development performance, Liyang City also exhibits a south–high and north–low pattern. Townships such as Tianmu Lake Town, Daibu Town, and Shezhu Town have higher average comprehensive indices, at 0.31, 0.30, and 0.28, respectively, significantly higher than other townships.

Tianmuhu Town, Daibu Town, and Shezhu Town have high comprehensive indices for green and low-carbon development performance, largely due to their emphasis on coordinating economic and ecological development. These towns benefit from abundant natural resources and excellent ecological environments, such as Tianmuhu Lake, and they effectively leverage these advantages to support economic growth. Local governments have implemented effective policies for farmland protection, ecological civilization, and green industries, promoting a balance between economic and ecological goals. Additionally, these areas have developed industries suited to their environmental conditions, such as eco-tourism and green agriculture, achieving a win–win outcome for both economic growth and ecological preservation.

4.1.2. Simulation and Modeling of Green and Low-Carbon Development Performance under Farmland Use Regulation

A simulation model of green and low-carbon development performance under farmland use regulation was constructed using system dynamics methodology and the Vensim PLE software platform. The model simulated the effects of three scenarios of new construction land under different farmland use regulation measures on green and low-carbon development performance. Specific calculation results are presented in

Table 1. Simulation scheme for green and low-carbon development performance under farmland use regulation.

Township	Scenario 1: Conversion of Farmland for New Construction				Scenario 2: Conversion of Ecological Land for New Construction				Scenario 3: Conversion of Other Land Uses for New Construction
	PP	EP	IP	R	PP	EP	IP	R	PP	EP	IP	R
Zhuzhe	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.18	0.02	0.16	0.14
Tianmuhu	0.06	0.67	0.66	0.36	0.11	0.54	0.66	0.36	0.26	0.68	0.99	0.53
Shezhu	0.39	0.38	0.66	0.46	0.55	0.24	0.66	0.50	0.57	0.39	0.66	0.53
Shangxing	0.34	0.33	0.34	0.34	0.43	0.10	0.34	0.33	0.53	0.13	0.53	0.44
Shanghuang	0.06	0.02	0.33	0.12	0.06	0.00	0.33	0.11	0.23	0.02	0.48	0.24
Nandu	0.21	0.02	0.33	0.20	0.32	0.00	0.33	0.24	0.39	0.01	0.33	0.28
Licheng	0.16	0.02	0.00	0.09	0.28	0.03	0.00	0.15	0.40	0.03	0.07	0.22
Daibu	0.28	0.67	0.99	0.55	0.35	0.62	0.99	0.57	0.46	0.67	1.00	0.67
Daitou	0.07	0.23	0.00	0.09	0.07	0.44	0.00	0.14	0.24	0.20	0.12	0.21
Bieqiao	0.15	0.01	0.01	0.08	0.25	0.02	0.01	0.13	0.32	0.01	0.03	0.17
Average	0.17	0.24	0.33	0.23	0.24	0.20	0.33	0.25	0.36	0.21	0.44	0.34

Note: The abbreviations for productivity performance, ecological performance, industrial performance, and comprehensive index are PP, EP, IP, and R, respectively.

and Figure 5.

Scenario 1: Conversion of Farmland for New Construction

When farmland use regulation fails, the conversion of new construction land significantly encroaches upon farmland. Consequently, the productivity performance derived from farmland decreases substantially, reaching the lowest level among the three scenarios. As a result, the comprehensive index in Scenario 1 is only 0.23, markedly lower than the other two scenarios. Spatially, Liyang City exhibits a pattern of higher indices in the south and lower indices in the north in this scenario. Specifically, Daibu Town and Shezhu Town have indices of 0.55 and 0.46, respectively, significantly higher than other townships. Compared to other scenarios, Scenario 1 has an average comprehensive index of only 0.23, which is far lower than the others. Additionally, the average productivity performance is merely 0.17, the lowest among all scenarios.

Scenario 2: Conversion of Ecological Land for New Construction

When farmland use regulation is effective, new construction land may encroach upon ecological lands, including water conservation areas, ecological reserves, and forests and grasslands. In this scenario, productivity performance remains unaffected, but there is a significant negative impact on regional ecological performance, which drops to 0.2, the lowest among the three scenarios. Townships such as Shezhu Town, Nandu Town, Licheng Town, Daibu Town, Daitou Town, and Bieqiao Town show considerable improvement in their comprehensive indices compared to Scenario 1. However, the average ecological performance is only 0.2, the lowest among the three scenarios, particularly with significant declines in ecological performance for townships like Zhuzhe Town, Tianmu Lake Town, Shezhu Town, Shangxing Town, Shanghuang Town, and Nandu Town compared to Scenario 1.

Scenario 3: Conversion of Other Land Uses for New Construction

When neither farmland nor ecological land is encroached upon, new construction land is developed on unused land or other land categories. In this scenario, Liyang City achieves the highest levels of productivity performance, industrial performance, and comprehensive index among the three scenarios, with values of 0.36, 0.44, and 0.34, respectively. Townships such as Zhuzhe Town, Shanghuang Town, Licheng Town, Daitou Town, and Bieqiao Town experience significant increases in their comprehensive indices compared to other scenarios, with improvements exceeding 100%. However, there are substantial variations among townships, with Daibu Town, Tianmu Lake Town, and Shezhu Town achieving comprehensive indices of 0.67, 0.53, and 0.53, respectively, much higher than other townships.

4.2. Village Classification Based on Farmland Use Regulation

Based on the comprehensive assessment of green low-carbon development performance and system dynamics simulation results, combined with village survey data, administrative villages in Liyang City are classified as shown in

Table 2. Classification methods of administrative villages in Liyang City.

Classification Criteria					Classification Results
PP	EP	IP	R	Scenario Simulation Requirements
/	/	>0.1	>0.1	According to Scenario 3, the available construction land area exceeds 60 hectares.	Industry Integration Type
>0.1	/	>0	>0.1	According to Scenario 1, the available construction land area exceeds 15 hectares.	High-quality agricultural type
/	>0	>0 and with high-quality tourism resources	>0.1	According to Scenario 3, the available construction land area is greater than 15 hectares.	Rural Tourism Type
/	>0	/	<0.1	According to Scenario 2, the available construction land area is greater than 0 hectares.	Ecological Conservation Type

.

Villages with both industrial and comprehensive performance greater than 0.1 and that meet the requirements of Scenario 3 by having a sufficient area of usable construction land (greater than 60 hectares) are classified as Industry Integration Villages.

Villages with a productivity performance greater than 0.1 and an industrial performance greater than 0 and that meet the requirements of Scenario 1 by having a sufficient area of usable construction land (greater than 15 hectares) are classified as High-Quality Agricultural Villages.

Villages with an industrial performance greater than 0, high-quality tourism resources, and that meet the requirements of Scenario 3 by having a sufficient area of usable construction land (greater than 15 hectares) are classified as Rural Tourism Villages.

Villages with an ecological performance greater than 0, a comprehensive performance less than 0.1, a high proportion of ecological land use, and that meet the requirements of Scenario 3 by having a certain amount of usable construction land (greater than 0 hectares) are classified as Ecological Conservation Villages.

The visualization of village classifications indicates significant spatial heterogeneity in Liyang City (see Figure 6).

(1) Industry Integration Villages

In terms of the distribution of villages by type across different regions, Industry Integration Villages are the most common, totaling 94, which accounts for 40.34% of the study units. These villages are mainly concentrated in Liyang’s urban areas and surrounding towns. Among them, Licheng Town has the highest number of Industry Integration Villages, with 35, representing 37.23% of the total. Following this are Nandu Town and Bieqiao Town, with 13 and 11 villages, respectively, accounting for 13.83% and 11.70%. These towns feature well-developed industrial systems focusing on building materials, chemicals, textiles, and electromechanical industries. The secondary sector has a significant share, and there is coordinated development with the primary and tertiary sectors, indicating that these areas are economically more advanced in Liyang City.

(2) High-Quality Agricultural Villages

There are 62 High-Quality Agricultural Villages, representing 26.61% of the study units, and they are primarily located in the western part of Liyang City. Among these, Shezhu Town has the most High-Quality Agricultural Villages, totaling 17, which is 27.42% of the total. Nandu Town follows with 12 villages, accounting for 19.35%. These towns have a high proportion of farmland, and freshwater shrimp farming has become a significant rural economic pillar. Additionally, some villages are renowned for their high-quality agricultural products, such as rice, tea, chemical-free sausages, mutton hotpot, salted goose, freshwater shrimp, and seedless cucumbers, making them key areas for Liyang’s specialty agricultural products.

(3) Rural Tourism Villages

Rural Tourism Villages primarily rely on favorable ecological and rural environments. Due to location and terrain conditions, they are mainly distributed in the southeastern and northwestern low mountain and hilly areas, as well as other regions with favorable agricultural development conditions, accounting for 8.15% of the total. Tianmuhu Town, Daibu Town, and Shangxing Town have the highest number of Rural Tourism Villages, totaling 14, which is 73.68% of the total, far exceeding other towns. Tianmuhu Town’s Tianmuhu Tourism Resort, located in the southern part of Liyang City, is one of Jiangsu Province’s first provincial-level tourist resorts, a national AAAA-rated tourist attraction, and a national ecological tourism demonstration zone. Tourism revenue is a major economic contributor to the town. Additionally, Daibu Town and Shangxing Town also have rich rural tourism resources, which are being developed through enhanced tourism infrastructure, ecological landscaping, and rural homestays, thus driving high-quality development in rural tourism.

(4) Ecological Conservation Villages

Ecological Conservation Villages are primarily located in key ecological protection areas, such as Tianmuhu and Daxi Reservoir in southeastern Liyang City, totaling 58, or 24.89% of the total. Among them, Daibu Town has the highest number of Ecological Conservation Villages, with 14, representing 24.14%. This is followed by Shangxing Town and Tianmuhu Town, with 12 and 9 villages, respectively, accounting for 20.69% and 15.52%. These villages have abundant natural resources and extensive ecological land that requires conservation and environmental protection to achieve sustainable regional ecological, economic, and social development. This region focuses on strengthening the branding of specialty agricultural products while preserving the ecological environment, thus promoting ecological economic development.

Overall, the western part of Liyang City, characterized by flatter terrain and fertile soil, is more suitable for agricultural development. Due to its distance from the central urban areas, the urbanization effect is weaker, leading to a concentration of High-Quality Agricultural Villages. Industry Integration Villages benefit from favorable location conditions, high levels of industrialization, and urbanization, with clusters such as the Zhongguancun Science Park and Tianmuhu Industrial Park. These regions show higher levels of overall and economic development compared to other types. Rural Tourism and Ecological Conservation Villages largely depend on local characteristic resources, using tourism to increase villagers’ income and improve village development quality.

5. Discussion

Based on the village classification results and the green and low-carbon development performance levels of each village, and adhering to the principles of systematic, leading, and coordinated approaches, differentiated regulation policies for farmland resources are designed. These policies take into account the natural geographic and socio-economic conditions of each village and play a crucial role in both protecting farmland and achieving regional coordinated development. The farmland use regulation policies for different types of villages are as follows:

(1) Farmland Use Regulation Policies for Industry Integration Villages

Industry Integration Villages should aim to become pioneering areas for integrated development of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. These villages are mainly distributed in the eastern part of Liyang City. In this region, different farmland functions are well-coordinated, with high overall quality, and most of the land is located in areas suitable for recreational activities. The recommended policies for controlling farmland use in this area are as follows:

To achieve integrated development, encourage the use of farmland in this region to support agricultural industries while leveraging the comparative advantages of local resources such as green landscapes, traditional culture, and scenic attractions. Following the principles of integrated management of mountains, water, forests, farmland, lakes, and grasslands, explore multiple functions of farmland, including ecological conservation and recreational tourism. Develop composite functional industries on farmland and promote comprehensive and coordinated utilization of these resources. Adhere to a market-oriented approach, aligning land use with new market demands and integrating with local rural industry development plans. Ensure that land use for the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries is reasonably planned in terms of spatial layout and scale. While stabilizing agricultural production functions, combine agricultural production with recreational farming based on regional advantages and features. Develop urban agriculture composite industries such as agricultural tourism parks and optimize the multifunctional spatial layout of farmland in accordance with local urban-rural development plans.

(2) Farmland Use Regulation Policies for High-Quality Agricultural Villages

High-Quality Agricultural Villages aim to become core bases for grain production. These villages are predominantly located in the western and northern regions of Liyang City, where farmland is well-connected, has high productivity, and strong grain production capabilities. Most of these areas are key grain-producing regions in Jiangsu Province. The recommended policies for controlling farmland use in these areas are as follows:

High-Quality Agricultural Villages are crucial for food security and must adhere to the strictest farmland protection policies. Land use practices that prioritize farmland, strictly limit the conversion of farmland, and prohibit activities such as fishpond excavation should be implemented. The occupation of farmland, especially high-standard farmland and basic farmland maintenance areas, should be controlled to protect the quantity of farmland. For already approved land occupations, it should be ensured that the quantity, quality, and productivity of replacement land meet requirements in accordance with the “balance between occupation and compensation” principle. Sustainable farmland protection should be promoted to prevent long-term reclamation, exploitative overproduction, and excessive land use intensification. Additionally, under the new “big food concept”, a one-size-fits-all approach to controlling non-grain agricultural activities should be avoided. A diverse range of agricultural production activities should be encouraged on farmland to meet varied agricultural needs. The supply of agricultural facilities such as rural roads, farmland protection forests, and irrigation infrastructure should be ensured. The renovation of low- and medium-yield farmland should be encouraged to enhance productivity, and land consolidation should be promoted to improve sustainability. Policies that mitigate negative externalities of farmland production should be implemented through a combination of strict regulation measures, technological investment in soil improvement, and ecological compensation. Agricultural subsidies, support for new agricultural operators, and land transfer policies should be used to protect land rights, enhance social security functions, and promote coordinated development of farmland’s multifunctional use.

(3) Farmland Use Regulation Policies for Rural Tourism Villages

Rural Tourism Villages aim to develop high-quality ecological tourism industries. These villages are primarily located in towns such as Tianmuhu and Daibu, where favorable ecological conditions and rich tourism resources offer the potential for creating premium ecological tourism brands in Liyang City. Besides traditional functions like grain production, social security, and ecological conservation, the farmland in these villages also offers landscape beautification and cultural heritage functions. The recommended policies for controlling farmland use in these areas are as follows:

Farmland use regulation in Rural Tourism Villages should focus on both preserving current farmland data and quality and enhancing its ecological functions. Natural resources should be transformed into tourism resources, presenting new values, utilization perspectives, and development views for farmland. This will provide a spatial foundation and derivation context for rural tourism development. The regulation policies should target resource protection and multifunctional development, strengthening innovation in concepts, technologies, and products based on the endowments of farmland. The rural tourism industry chain should be extended, its added value should be increased, and farmland resources should be systematically utilized. The cultural attributes of farmland should be protected with a strong agricultural heritage to enhance the diversity and quality of rural tourism. During tourism development, land demands and farmland protection conflicts should be managed carefully. Projects and land use should be planned reasonably, with strict regulation approval processes, and tourism land management systems should be reformed based on local needs. Classified management of tourism land should be implemented, supportive policies developed, and effective protection of farmland ensured.

(4) Farmland Use Regulation Policies for Ecological Conservation Villages

Ecological Conservation Villages aim to become models of “green ecological agriculture”. These villages are generally located in economically underdeveloped areas and key ecological function zones in Jiangsu Province, serving as important ecological barriers for Liyang City. Although these areas have a certain scale and production capacity of farmland, their utilization level is relatively low, with ecological functions being predominant. Additionally, due to economic underdevelopment, local populations heavily depend on agriculture for employment. The recommended policies for controlling farmland use in these areas are as follows:

Guided by the “Two Mountains” theory, green ecological agriculture should be vigorously developed to minimize negative impacts on environmental quality and promote the conversion of ecological advantages into economic benefits. Ecological safety should be ensured while developing services and specialty agricultural processing industries based on the excellent landscape and cultural functions of ecological conservation villages. Ecological agriculture demonstration zones should be created to boost the local economy and decouple agriculture from economic development, thus better safeguarding regional ecological security. Social security functions, such as rural development and employment for farmland, should be emphasized. Additionally, the major ecological value of farmland should be leveraged as a green barrier on the urban fringe to curb urban sprawl. The convenience of urban development and its influence on surrounding areas should be utilized to explore the recreational and scenic functions of suburban farmland and develop ecological agriculture focused on sightseeing tourism.

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

By collecting and analyzing data on land use, socio-economic development, ecological conditions, and related statistics for Liyang City, this study has developed a research framework for green and low-carbon development performance and optimization of farmland use regulation under the guidance of technological innovation. Based on the results of village classification, differentiated farmland use regulation schemes have been proposed.

The specific conclusions are as follows:

(1)

According to the comprehensive assessment of green and low-carbon development performance of farmland, Liyang City’s overall performance index also exhibits a pattern of higher values in the south and lower values in the north. Among the towns, Tianmuhu, Daibu, and Shezhu have higher average indices of 0.31, 0.30, and 0.28, respectively, which are significantly higher than those of other towns.

(2)

The simulation model for controlling the green and low-carbon development performance of farmland use shows that in Scenario 1, where new construction land occupies farmland, the comprehensive index is only 0.23, significantly lower than in the other two scenarios.

(3)

Based on calculations and field research, Liyang City’s villages are categorized into four types. Among these, Industry Integration Villages are the most numerous, with a total of 94. Based on this classification, differentiated farmland use regulation policies are designed for each village type.

Relevant Recommendations:

(1)

Reform the Farmland Use Regulation System: To effectively enhance the green and low-carbon development performance of farmland use regulation, systemic reforms are needed. This includes developing a policy system that emphasizes a “trinity” approach of quantity, quality, and ecology, improving the permanent basic farmland designation system, refining dynamic monitoring technologies and systems to rigorously address illegal land occupation, and strengthening safeguarding measures and regulatory assessment systems.

(2)

Establish an Incentive Mechanism for Farmland Use Regulation: To encourage farmers and local governments to actively protect farmland and deter land users from occupying it, measures should be designed to increase the comparative benefits of farmland, raise the costs of land occupation, and reform the performance evaluation system for local government officials.

(3)

Develop a Green and Low-Carbon Development Performance Evaluation System: There is currently no established evaluation system for green and low-carbon development performance related to farmland protection. It is recommended that a comprehensive decision-making evaluation index system for farmland use regulation be developed under the green and low-carbon development framework. This system should include indicators related to capacity (agricultural development foundation, agricultural infrastructure, food quality and safety, etc.), ecology (pollution levels, carbon sequestration function, climate conditions, etc.), and industry (rural tourism, industrial integration, etc.).

(4)

Establish a Dynamic Monitoring System for Farmland Protection: The system should initially prioritize ground-based manual monitoring while also extensively employing modern remote sensing and other advanced technologies to track changes in farmland, especially near urban areas. This approach will provide scientific evidence for informed land protection decisions and enforcement.