Spatio-Temporal Diversification of per Capita Carbon Emissions in China: 2000–2020
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Sources
2.3. Per Capita Carbon Emissions
2.4. Markov Chain
2.5. Kernel Density Analysis
2.6. Hotspots Analysis
2.7. Spatial Regression
3. Results
3.1. PCEs in China
3.2. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of PCEs
3.3. Kernel Density
3.4. Change in PCEs in China
3.5. Driving Mechanism of Low-Carbon Transition
4. Discussion
4.1. Interpretation of Findings
4.2. Driving Mechanisms of Low-Carbon Transition
4.3. Policy Implications of Low-Carbon Transition
4.3.1. Promoting the Low-Carbon Transition
4.3.2. Focusing on the Spatial Agglomeration Effects of PCE
4.3.3. Coordinating Economic Growth and CEs
4.3.4. Formulating Differential Strategy
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Spatial Extent | Time Span | Type | L | ML | MH | H | Number |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PCE | China | 10 | L | 0.720 | 0.274 | 0.004 | 0 | 211 |
ML | 0.011 | 0.655 | 0.327 | 0.005 | 180 | |||
MH | 0 | 0.016 | 0.661 | 0.322 | 183 | |||
H | 0 | 0 | 0.025 | 0.975 | 160 | |||
Eastern China | 10 | L | 0.724 | 0.241 | 0.034 | 0 | 58 | |
ML | 0.035 | 0.482 | 0.428 | 0.053 | 56 | |||
MH | 0 | 0.060 | 0.460 | 0.480 | 50 | |||
H | 0 | 0 | 0.100 | 0.900 | 40 | |||
Central China | 10 | L | 0.714 | 0.285 | 0 | 0 | 49 | |
ML | 0 | 0.553 | 0.446 | 0 | 47 | |||
MH | 0 | 0.026 | 0.736 | 0.236 | 38 | |||
H | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 40 | |||
Western China | 10 | L | 0.581 | 0.383 | 0.034 | 0 | 86 | |
ML | 0 | 0.686 | 0.313 | 0 | 67 | |||
MH | 0 | 0.014 | 0.720 | 0.264 | 68 | |||
H | 0 | 0 | 0.046 | 0.953 | 65 | |||
Northeastern China | 10 | L | 0.545 | 0.409 | 0.045 | 0 | 22 | |
ML | 0 | 0.473 | 0.526 | 0 | 19 | |||
MH | 0 | 0 | 0.350 | 0.650 | 20 | |||
H | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 |
Variables | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|
LUI | −3.239 *** | −8.440 *** | −7.027 *** |
(0.950) | (1.818) | (1.816) | |
GDPD | 26.842 * | 44.587 *** | 4.659 * |
(13.565) | (11.510) | (2.115) | |
ASLO | −1.209 * | −2.707 * | −2.993 ** |
(0.578) | (1.109) | (1.127) | |
ADEM | −2.076 *** | −3.205 ** | −3.131 ** |
(0.574) | (1.120) | (1.143) | |
LAT | 0.068 *** | 0.152 *** | 0.156 *** |
(0.010) | (0.020) | (0.020) | |
LON | −0.043 *** | −0.066 *** | −0.056 *** |
(0.008) | (0.016) | (0.016) | |
Constant | 5.883 *** | 10.269 *** | 8.721 *** |
(1.029) | (2.033) | (2.088) | |
Moran’s I (error) | 3.225 ** | 4.291 *** | 4.341 *** |
LM (lag) | 8.744 ** | 16.081 *** | 16.967 *** |
Robust LM (lag) | 1.946 | 2.522 | 3.339 |
LM (error) | 7.324 ** | 13.865 *** | 14.408 *** |
Robust LM (error) | 0.526 | 0.305 | 0.779 |
LM (SARMA) | 9.271 ** | 16.387 *** | 17.747 *** |
Measures of fit | |||
Log likelihood | −607.080 | −846.958 | −853.786 |
AIC | 1228.160 | 1707.920 | 1721.570 |
SC | 1255.500 | 1735.250 | 1748.910 |
R-Squared | 0.248 | 0.272 | 0.262 |
N | 367 | 367 | 367 |
Variables | SLM | SEM | SLM | SEM | SLM | SEM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 2010 | 2020 | ||||
LUI | −2.470 ** | −2.468 * | −6.279 *** | −6.749 ** | −5.061 ** | −5.034 ** |
(0.937) | (1.109) | (1.795) | (2.163) | (1.771) | (2.153) | |
GDPD | 21.547 | 19.399 | 34.852 ** | 38.262 ** | 3.428 | 3.013 |
(13.206) | (13.780) | (11.219) | (12.964) | (2.032) | (2.162) | |
ASLO | −0.988 | −1.200 | −2.105 | −2.639 * | −2.299 * | −2.818 * |
(0.565) | (0.656) | (1.075) | (1.288) | (1.090) | (1.319) | |
ADEM | −1.858 ** | −2.316 *** | −2.814 ** | −3.76 ** | −2.716 * | −3.641 * |
(0.574) | (0.685) | (1.098) | (1.387) | (1.116) | (1.434) | |
LAT | 0.055 *** | 0.072 *** | 0.114 *** | 0.162 *** | 0.115 *** | 0.167 *** |
(0.011) | (0.013) | (0.022) | (0.027) | (0.022) | (0.027) | |
LON | −0.038 *** | −0.051 *** | −0.058 *** | −0.085 *** | −0.050 ** | −0.075 *** |
(0.009) | (0.010) | (0.016) | (0.021) | (0.016) | (0.022) | |
Constant | 5.085 *** | 6.259 *** | 8.599 *** | 11.161 *** | 7.322 *** | 9.366 *** |
(1.067) | (1.297) | (2.062) | (2.708) | (2.075) | (2.826) | |
Spatial lag term | 0.238 *** | 0.290 *** | 0.304 *** | |||
(0.070) | (0.068) | (0.067) | ||||
Spatial error term | 0.257 *** | 0.310 *** | 0.326 *** | |||
(0.071) | (0.069) | (0.068) | ||||
Measures of fit | ||||||
Log likelihood | −602.400 | −602.588 | −839.089 | −839.433 | −845.333 | −845.680 |
AIC | 1220.800 | 1219.18 | 1694.180 | 1692.870 | 1706.670 | 1705.360 |
SC | 1252.040 | 1246.510 | 1725.420 | 1720.210 | 1737.910 | 1732.700 |
R-Squared | 0.275 | 0.276 | 0.315 | 0.315 | 0.309 | 0.309 |
N | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 |
Variables | Western China | Northeastern China | Central China | Eastern China | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | |
LUI | −1.592 | −10.968 * | −10.676 * | −0.667 | −6.731 | −5.800 | −3.502 * | −10.198 ** | −9.015 * | −2.423 *** | −5.624 | −1.775 |
(2.550) | (4.397) | (4.456) | (1.738) | (4.465) | (5.667) | (1.398) | (3.276) | (3.681) | (1.284) | (2.963) | (3.003) | |
GDPD | 50.300 | 361.097 ** | 90.605 ** | 90.515 | 66.990 | 2.065 | 53.920 | 91.123 *** | 15.105 * | 17.800 | 24.656 *** | 0.988 |
(228.985) | (115.654) | (30.547) | (49.639) | (52.383) | (29.286) | (37.676) | (24.616) | (7.083) | (4.536) | (5.562) | (0.945) | |
ASLO | −1.234 | −1.811 | −2.133 | −1.606 | −6.625 | −5.410 | −1.699 * | −4.247 * | −3.269 | −0.275 * | −2.146 | −2.965 |
(1.099) | (2.028) | (2.008) | (1.724) | (4.490) | (5.302) | (0.820) | (1.864) | (2.140) | (0.720) | (1.593) | (1.797) | |
ADEM | −1.954 * | −3.098 | −3.235 | 2.107 | 0.443 | −2.997 | 2.021 | 5.196 | 3.328 | −3.360 | −3.237 | 0.309 |
(0.991) | (1.871) | (1.879) | (3.246) | (8.574) | (9.434) | (1.667) | (3.762) | (4.264) | (1.699) | (3.875) | (4.229) | |
LAT | −0.038 | −0.017 | 0.002 | 0.036 | 0.135 * | 0.140 | 0.113 | 0.123 * | 0.134 * | −0.025 | 0.006 | 0.061 |
(0.020) | (0.035) | (0.035) | (0.024) | (0.062) | (0.072) | (0.026) | (0.058) | (0.067) | (0.014) | (0.033) | (0.036) | |
LON | 0.095 *** | 0.213 *** | 0.228 *** | 0.037 | 0.002 | −0.014 | 0.113 *** | 0.221 *** | 0.279 *** | 0.037 *** | 0.072 * | 0.025 |
(0.029) | (0.052) | (0.052) | (0.038) | (0.100) | (0.115) | (0.029) | (0.069) | (0.078) | (0.011) | (0.028) | (0.027) | |
Constant | 3.568 | 3.787 | 1.644 | −4.647 | −10.126 | −9.627 | 0.028 | −13.254 | −16.710* | 4.350 ** | 2.614 | −4.425 |
(2.702) | (5.116) | (5.141) | (3.249) | (8.346) | (9.460) | (3.079) | (6.893) | (7.909) | (1.632) | (3.801) | (3.825) | |
Moran’s I (error) | 1.915 | 1.676 | 1.711 | −1.055 | −1.000 | −1.404 | 1.706 | 2.182 * | 1.688 | 2.709 ** | 3.959 *** | |
LM (lag) | 1.331 | 1.567 | 1.504 | 3.379 | 3.790 * | 3.353 | 1.333 | 0.960 | 1.191 | 12.149 *** | 5.503 | 8.524 *** |
Robust LM (lag) | 0.109 | 1.324 | 0.750 | 0.318 | 0.791 | 0.529 | 2.591 | 0.028 | 2.044 | 1.911 | 2.654 | 0.263 |
LM (error) | 1.500 | 1.002 | 1.097 | 3.065 | 3.099 | 4.139 * | 0.545 | 1.253 | 0.529 | 10.240 *** | 3.525 | 9.558 *** |
Robust LM (error) | 0.278 | 0.759 | 0.343 | 0.004 | 0.100 | 1.315 | 1.803 | 0.321 | 1.381 | 0.001 | 0.675 | 1.298 |
LM (SARMA) | 1.609 | 2.326 | 1.847 | 3.384 | 3.890 | 4.669 | 3.136 | 1.282 | 2.573 | 12.151 ** | 6.179 * | 9.822 ** |
Measures of fit | ||||||||||||
Log likelihood | −296.557 | −383.134 | −382.904 | −12.723 | −46.081 | −52.108 | −46.992 | −117.917 | −129.776 | −32.805 | −115.618 | −126.148 |
AIC | 607.113 | 780.268 | 779.808 | 39.447 | 106.162 | 118.218 | 107.985 | 249.833 | 273.552 | 79.611 | 245.235 | 266.296 |
SC | 627.853 | 801.008 | 800.548 | 50.531 | 117.247 | 129.302 | 125.246 | 267.095 | 290.814 | 97.986 | 263.61 | 284.671 |
R-Squared | 0.257 | 0.319 | 0.326 | 0.294 | 0.315 | 0.264 | 0.508 | 0.504 | 0.439 | 0.235 | 0.349 | 0.250 |
N | 143 | 143 | 143 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 102 | 102 | 102 |
Variables | Western China | Northeastern China | Central China | Eastern China | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | |
LUI | −0.874 | −9.350 * | −9.289 * | −0.583 | −6.453 | −4.865 | −3.156 * | −9.456 ** | −8.175 * | −2.007 | −4.197 | −1.361 |
(2.467) | (4.279) | (4.325) | (1.341) | (3.406) | (4.404) | (1.366) | (3.259) | (3.606) | (1.136) | (2.756) | (2.721) | |
GDPD | 23.714 | 335.386 ** | 87.693 ** | 49.497 | 32.640 | −12.276 | 52.691 | 87.954 *** | 14.178 * | 13.715 *** | 18.992 *** | 0.501 |
(221.392) | (111.95) | (29.534) | (38.662) | (39.884) | (22.700) | (35.743) | (24.093) | (6.747) | (4.015) | (5.279) | (0.855) | |
ASLO | −1.171 | −1.675 | −1.966 | −2.343 | −7.222 * | −6.313 | −1.424 | −3.755 * | −2.729 | −0.201 | −1.484 | −2.227 |
(1.066) | (1.971) | (1.951) | (1.336) | (3.443) | (4.119) | (0.796) | (1.815) | (2.065) | (0.639) | (1.484) | (1.643) | |
ADEM | −1.790 | −2.802 | −2.885 | 1.702 | −2.903 | −4.449 | 1.561 | 4.349 | 2.405 | −2.803 | −2.815 | 0.440 |
(0.977) | (1.833) | (1.840) | (2.518) | (6.543) | (7.315) | (1.596) | (3.620) | (4.071) | (1.499) | (3.585) | (3.827) | |
LAT | −0.037 | −0.024 | −0.005 | 0.061 *** | 0.200 *** | 0.218 *** | 0.024 | 0.108 | 0.115 | −0.019 | −0.002 | 0.039 |
(0.019) | (0.034) | (0.034) | (0.019) | (0.048) | (0.058) | (0.024) | (0.057) | (0.065) | (0.013) | (0.031) | (0.033) | |
LON | 0.082 ** | 0.179 *** | 0.191 *** | 0.038 | 0.023 | 0.0204 | 0.096 ** | 0.192 ** | 0.241 ** | 0.027 ** | 0.054 * | 0.015 |
(0.030) | (0.056) | (0.057) | (0.031) | (0.082) | (0.094) | (0.032) | (0.073) | (0.083) | (0.010) | (0.027) | (0.025) | |
Constant | 3.408 | 4.265 | 2.362 | −6.997 ** | −17.122 * | −19.265 * | −3.247 | −11.318 | −14.162 | 3.301 * | 2.720 | −2.592 |
(2.625) | (4.949) | (4.970) | (2.572) | (6.741) | (7.809) | (2.976) | (6.820) | (7.832) | (1.452) | (3.514) | (3.490) | |
Spatial lag term | 0.163 | 0.160 | 0.160 | −0.743 *** | −0.763 *** | −0.733 *** | 0.189 | 0.160 | 0.182 | 0.435 *** | 0.316 ** | 0.387 *** |
(0.111) | (0.109) | (0.109) | (0.211) | (0.203) | (0.212) | (0.146) | (0.143) | (0.147) | (0.099) | (0.111) | (0.109) | |
Measures of fit | ||||||||||||
Log likelihood | −295.739 | −382.252 | −382.037 | −9.469 | −42.470 | −48.971 | −46.287 | −117.397 | −129.135 | −26.245 | −112.564 | −121.633 |
AIC | 607.478 | 780.503 | 780.075 | 34.938 | 100.942 | 113.942 | 108.575 | 250.794 | 274.27 | 68.491 | 241.128 | 259.266 |
SC | 631.181 | 804.206 | 803.777 | 47.606 | 113.61 | 126.61 | 128.302 | 270.521 | 293.997 | 89.490 | 262.128 | 280.265 |
R-Squared | 0.270 | 0.331 | 0.338 | 0.478 | 0.507 | 0.451 | 0.519 | 0.513 | 0.451 | 0.361 | 0.403 | 0.340 |
N | 143 | 143 | 143 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 102 | 102 | 102 |
Variables | Western China | Northeastern China | Central China | Eastern China | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | |
LUI | −0.275 | −9.211 * | −8.918 * | −0.142 | −5.562 | −3.579 | −3.511 * | −10.718 *** | −9.135 * | −2.045 | −4.122 | −2.234 |
(2.653) | (4.527) | (4.544) | (1.191) | (3.115) | (3.765) | (1.403) | (3.360) | (3.692) | (1.258) | (2.999) | (2.962) | |
GDPD | −15.509 | 27.583 ** | 85.35 ** | 34.575 | −3.413 | −21.060 | 53.435 | 97.235 *** | 14.347 * | 11.673 | 18.752 *** | 0.305 |
(222.797) | (113.220) | (29.620) | (35.537) | (32.089) | (20.643) | (36.688) | (24.908) | (6.892) | (3.804) | (5.803) | (0.842) | |
ASLO | −1.410 | −2.156 | −2.372 | −2.748 * | −7.250 * | −6.033 | −1.587 | −3.885 | −3.069 | −0.805 | −2.083 | −3.670 |
(1.177) | (2.128) | (2.117) | (1.119) | (3.008) | (3.620) | (0.829) | (1.934) | (2.164) | (0.769) | (1.715) | (1.964) | |
ADEM | −2.078 | −3.158 | −3.221 | 2.559 | −2.851 | −3.830 | 1.745 | 4.237 | 2.683 | −2.527 | −2.621 | 0.790 |
(1.110) | (2.033) | (2.045) | (1.960) | (5.208) | (5.436) | (1.672) | (3.863) | (4.286) | (1.535) | (3.686) | (3.882) | |
LAT | −0.046 * | −0.031 *** | −0.010 | 0.052 *** | 0.150 *** | 0.166 *** | 0.027 | 0.122 | 0.133 | −0.012 | 0.015 | 0.071 |
(0.023) | (0.039) | (0.040) | (0.011) | (0.031) | (0.035) | (0.027) | (0.066) | (0.071) | (0.022) | (0.043) | (0.051) | |
LON | 0.099 ** | 0.213 | 0.230 *** | 0.001 | −0.075 | −0.067 | 0.117 *** | 0.238 *** | 0.289 *** | 0.027 | 0.059 | 0.023 |
(0.033) | (0.058) | (0.058) | (0.024) | (0.064) | (0.072) | (0.030) | (0.071) | (0.079) | (0.014) | (0.032) | (0.033) | |
Constant | 3.776 | 4.445 | 2.082 | −5.238 ** | −8.728 | −11.849 * | −3.917 | −13.374 | −16.717 * | 2.941 | 1.047 | −5.023 |
(3.166) | (5.760) | (5.800) | (1.801) | (4.683) | (4.956) | (3.246) | (7.724) | (8.344) | (2.384) | (4.728) | (5.387) | |
Spatial error term | 0.207 | 0.164 | 0.168 | −0.923 *** | −0.810 *** | −0.957 *** | 0.134 | 0.213 | 0.133 | 0.513 *** | 0.336 ** | 0.449 *** |
(0.110) | (0.112) | (0.112) | (0.199) | (0.214) | (0.193) | (0.156) | (0.149) | (0.156) | (0.096) | (0.115) | (0.104) | |
Measures of fit | ||||||||||||
Log likelihood | −295.458 | −382.430 | −382.149 | −7.776 | −40.236 | −47.226 | −46.686 | −117.175 | −129.477 | −25.921 | −113.195 | −120.578 |
AIC | 604.917 | 778.861 | 778.299 | 29.553 | 94.472 | 108.452 | 107.374 | 248.351 | 272.954 | 65.843 | 240.391 | 255.156 |
SC | 625.657 | 799.601 | 799.039 | 40.637 | 105.557 | 119.537 | 124.635 | 265.612 | 290.216 | 84.218 | 258.766 | 273.531 |
R-Squared | 0.275 | 0.330 | 0.337 | 0.555 | 0.555 | 0.545 | 0.513 | 0.517 | 0.445 | 0.380 | 0.397 | 0.364 |
N | 143 | 143 | 143 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 102 | 102 | 102 |
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© 2024 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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Zhang, X.; Zeng, Y.; Chen, W.; Pan, S.; Du, F.; Zong, G. Spatio-Temporal Diversification of per Capita Carbon Emissions in China: 2000–2020. Land 2024, 13, 1421. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091421
Zhang X, Zeng Y, Chen W, Pan S, Du F, Zong G. Spatio-Temporal Diversification of per Capita Carbon Emissions in China: 2000–2020. Land. 2024; 13(9):1421. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091421
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Xuewei, Yi Zeng, Wanxu Chen, Sipei Pan, Fenglian Du, and Gang Zong. 2024. "Spatio-Temporal Diversification of per Capita Carbon Emissions in China: 2000–2020" Land 13, no. 9: 1421. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091421