Evaluation of Arable Land Intensive Utilization and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors from the Perspective of Public Emergencies: A Case Study of Sichuan Province in China Based on the Pressure-State-Response Model

Abstract

Promoting the intensive utilization of arable land is a critical strategy for addressing the scarcity problem of arable land resources and thus ensuring food security. However, public emergencies pose significant challenges to the intensive utilization of arable land. Based on the pressure-state response (PSR) model and taking Sichuan Province, known as China’s “Heavenly Granary”, as an example, this study constructs a suitable evaluation system and analyzes the variation trend of the intensive utilization of arable land from the perspective of public emergencies. Key factors constraining the intensive utilization of arable land are further analyzed using the obstacle diagnostic model. The findings of this study are as follows: (1) Despite the shocks of public emergencies, the intensive utilization level of arable land in Sichuan Province in China shows an overall upward trend, indicating a high level of resilience and adaptability. (2) The pressure to utilize arable land intensively in Sichuan exhibits periodic fluctuations, yet the state remains generally stable. The whole system shows positive adaptive responses to external pressures and contemporary conditions during the mid-to-late stages of the research period. Nevertheless, coordination among subsystems within the PSR framework remains suboptimal, and a dynamic equilibrium across the subsystems has not yet been achieved. (3) Obstacle factors constraining the intensive arable land utilization in Sichuan exhibit notable temporal variations. Early-period constraints centered on multiple cropping indexes, grain yield per unit area, and irrigation index, reflecting limitations of traditional agricultural production modes. In the later stages, key obstacles shifted to factors including per capita cultivated land, population density, and pesticide/fertilizer input index, highlighting the impediment effects caused by evolving socio-demographic dynamics influenced by public emergencies. The findings of this study reveal critical pathways for local governments to achieve sustainable arable land management amidst global uncertainties.

1. Introduction

With the rapid development of the global economy and the deepening urbanization in various countries, the abuse of arable land resources has become increasingly prevalent, exacerbating the trend of non-agricultural conversion of farmland and intensifying the scarcity of arable land. To optimize land use patterns and enhance the quality of per-unit grain production, intensive land utilization—characterized by the strategic allocation of capital, labor, and technological inputs to maximize economic returns—has emerged as a critical strategy for ensuring food availability and maintaining global food security. Nevertheless, global public emergencies marked by uncertainty and urgency have exerted bidirectional pressures on the supply-demand equilibria of food, inducing multifaceted impacts on socioeconomic systems and the intensive utilization of arable land. Public emergencies refer to sudden, unpredictable emergency events that pose significant threats or have severe impacts on public interests, public safety, or social order. Key characteristics of such emergencies include suddenness, urgency, uncertainty, and extensive social ramifications. These events often have multidimensional impacts on the economic and social systems through complex mechanisms such as supply chain disruptions, resource allocation shifts, or policy adjustments, which in turn affect the stability and sustainability of specific domains, including the intensive use of arable land [1,2,3]. In 2020, the Committee on World Food Security (CFS) released a thematic report, The Impact of Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) on Food Security and Nutrition, highlighting that the COVID-19 pandemic, as a major sudden public emergency, disrupted global food production systems through multifaceted, dynamic effects and posed significant threats to food supply chain resilience. Evidently, compounded by such public events, escalating pressures on food production have amplified external stressors on intensive arable land utilization while altering its operational states and necessitating adaptive responses. In this case, how to scientifically evaluate the level of intensive arable land utilization and its pressure-state response (PSR) dynamics has become a critical research topic.

Existing research on intensive arable land utilization has primarily focused on constructing assessment indicator systems [4,5,6,7], measuring efficiency levels [8,9,10], analyzing influencing mechanisms [11,12,13], and examining spatio-temporal variations [14,15,16,17]. In addition, the intensive utilization of arable land is a comprehensive land use strategy involving multiple and complex activities of human beings and elements of natural environments. A number of studies have explored this comprehensive strategy, including promoting agricultural landscape [18,19], improving arable land use behaviors (such as pesticide input [20], fertilizer input [21], and crop replanting [22]), and regulating specific influencing factors (such as urban expansion [23], market prices [24]). Studies have also adopted diverse perspectives to analyze related issues, for instance, the perspective of globalization of agricultural markets [25] and the perspective of sustainable development (such as Alauda arvensis’ territory and reproduction [26], bird community survival [27,28,29,30], animal and plant diversity [31,32,33,34], dynamic changes in soil carbon emissions [35], loss of active nitrogen and nitrate [36,37,38], hydrological characteristics [39], etc.). Moreover, arable land utilization faces multidimensional external pressures, requiring adaptive responses to mitigate uncertainties. Therefore, it is necessary to explore intensive arable land use issues further from the perspective of uncertainty and based on the PSR framework, particularly given the challenges posed by the global COVID-19 pandemic’s uncertainties in recent years. However, limited research has explored the PSR dynamics of intensive land utilization from the perspective of public emergency shocks, particularly in analyzing the dynamic equilibrium across the systems. Meanwhile, due to the differences in the perception of the connotation of the intensive utilization of arable land, a unified theoretical framework and methodological system have not yet been established regarding the selection of evaluation indicators, as well as the determination of standard values and weights. Additionally, existing research has placed more emphasis on exploring the factors that influence the intensive utilization of arable land and the evolutionary trends. The diagnosis of obstacle factors has been relatively underexplored, leading to the evaluation results lacking pertinence and practicability for policymakers. In addition, the frequent occurrence of public emergencies worldwide has highlighted the limitations of government emergency management frameworks. On the one hand, traditional policy-making mainly relies on passive response models, lacking systematic prediction and analysis of pressure transmission mechanisms. On the other hand, emergency measures often focus on short-term relief and fail to establish a long-term governance pathway from the dynamic perspective of “pressure-state-response”. The lack of systematic consideration in policy-making has led to fragmented response strategies and inefficient resource allocation, making it difficult to effectively mitigate the profound impact of sudden shocks on the intensive use of arable land. By deconstructing the interactive relationship between pressure transmission and policy response using the PSR model, this study not only offers an analytical tool for enhancing the resilience of intensive arable land use but also provides a theoretical foundation for the government to optimize the emergency management framework and promote governance transformation from “crisis response” to “risk prevention”.

Based on the PSR model and taking Sichuan Province in China as an example, this study aims to build an evaluation system of intensive utilization of arable land and analyze the dynamic characteristics and the internal mechanism under the impact of public emergencies. By further identifying the key factors restricting arable land intensive use at different stages and analyzing the interactive relationship between external shocks and the internal PSR subsystems of arable land intensive use, specific policy references are provided to enhance the resilience of regional arable land use, thereby helping local governments to achieve the goals of promoting sustainable arable land use and ensuring food security. The findings of this study can add to the literature in the following three aspects: (1) unpacking the characteristics of changes in the pressure, state, and response subsystems from a creative perspective of public emergency shocks; (2) establishing a unified analytic framework based on the PSR model to evaluate the intensive arable land utilization level; (3) identifying the obstacle factors affecting the intensive arable land use to provide policymakers with more targeted policy insights.

2. Analytical Framework

Arable land resources play vital socioeconomic roles in the development of each country, serving as a concentrated reflection of human-land relationships within specific spatio-temporal dimensions [40]. Assessing the intensity of arable land utilization should not only be limited to the arable land itself but also account for its broader socioeconomic context and external influences, particularly the impact of public emergencies. The pressure-state response (PSR) model, developed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), has been identified as a useful framework for examining the interplay between human behaviors, environmental resources, and social activities [7]. Grounded in the “cause-effect-reflection” logic framework, this model delineates the interactions between the research subject and its influencing factors by analyzing three dimensions: pressure, state, and response [15]. Specifically, “Pressure” (P) denotes the human economic and social activities that impose stress on the ecological environment. “State” (S) denotes the status resulting from these activities. “Response” (R) is the policy measures and adaptive actions adopted by humans [41]. Renowned for its robust causal logic and self-consistent systemic structure, the PSR model is particularly well-suited for evaluating objects or systems in accordance with the principle of sustainable development [42]. By systematically examining pressure, state, and response subsystems, it aligns seamlessly with the policy-making process, making it an ideal analytical tool for studying intensive arable land utilization. To comprehensively analyze the dynamics of intensive land use and its constraining factors under public emergency shocks, this study constructs an analytical framework based on the PSR model to systematically investigate these critical issues. The PSR analytical framework developed in this study has significant generalizability. To be specific, in terms of emergency type, the framework encompassing pressure transmission mechanism, state response characteristics, and factor evolution laws is not only suitable for analyzing the shock of the COVID-19 epidemic but also applicable to exploring the impacts of other types of public emergencies such as natural disasters, economic crises, etc. Moreover, in terms of regional applicability, the theoretical logic of the framework transcends regional limitations, offering valuable policy insights for diverse regions.

In general, the pressure subsystem (P) of intensive use of arable land includes the dual effects of long-term pressure from socioeconomic activities and short-term impact from public emergencies. Conventional pressures originate from urbanization, industrialization, and extensive agricultural production methods, manifested as the competitive occupation of arable land resources driven by per capita GDP growth, the intensification of the contradiction between people and land due to the increase in population density, the decline in economies of scale caused by the reduction in per capita arable land, and the sustained pressure of food security demand on production efficiency. In contrast, public emergencies, such as epidemics, act as external shocks, reshaping the pressure subsystem (P) through bidirectional transmission paths. On the one hand, they directly interrupt the production process (such as labor shortages and supply chain disruptions), and on the other hand, they indirectly change the demand structure (such as adjustments to grain reserve policies and fluctuations in agricultural product prices). These impacts can affect both the state of intensive utilization of arable land (S) and the corresponding response measures (R), see Figure 1.

To be specific, under the impact of public emergencies, the external pressure (P) on arable land significantly influences its production state (S). In the first place, resource shortages or labor deficiencies induced by the pressure often reduce the peasants’ ability to improve production activities. This leads to decreased inputs of fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation, ultimately lowering per-unit grain output. Moreover, public emergency shocks have the potential to disrupt the productivity of arable land, which may impede the timely rotation or replanting of arable land, thereby constraining its overall productive capacity. In cases of drought or water scarcity, effective irrigation of arable land becomes challenging, further impeding crop growth and constraining the intensive utilization of arable land.

In response to the external pressure (P) and arable land use state (S), the adaptive response (R) of the government, society, and individuals is critical for maintaining intensive utilization. The response measures can trace the external pressure sources faced by the intensive use of arable land, thus achieving a high level of effectiveness. Policymakers and land operators can enhance inputs such as machinery, plastic mulching, pesticides, and fertilizers to counteract external shocks of public emergencies. In the process of promoting intensive utilization of arable land, the allocation of agricultural input factors (such as pesticides, plastic mulching, fertilizers, and machinery) has a dual effect on improving agricultural production efficiency. Moderate input can significantly increase the level of intensive utilization of arable land by improving resource utilization efficiency, enhancing crop stress resistance, and promoting large-scale management. However, improper input (such as excessive application of pesticides and fertilizers, residual pollution of plastic mulching, or mismatch between machinery and farmland scale) may lead to soil degradation, weakened ecological functions, and increased production costs, thereby constraining the sustainability of intensive use in reverse. From the perspective of positive impact, policymakers can provide subsidies and loans to land operators to promote agricultural mechanization, thereby improving farming efficiency and accelerating production recovery. Additionally, policymakers can encourage the adoption of agricultural plastic mulching, which is aimed at maintaining soil moisture and enhancing crop resilience through subsidies and technical support. Furthermore, policymakers can provide subsidies for pesticides to support cropland operators in the scientific prevention and control of pests and diseases, ensuring crop health and stable yields. Finally, policymakers can guide cropland operators in the judicious use of chemical fertilizers, thereby promoting soil fertility recovery and ensuring the growth of crops. Through these input-based strategies, policymakers and land operators can enhance the efficiency of intensive production on arable land, address external pressures stemming from public emergencies, and maintain the intensive utilization of arable land over the long term.

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Research Methods

3.1.1. Evaluation Index System Construction

Based on the framework of the PSR model and the context of arable land use in China, we built an evaluation index system for intensive arable land use by selecting 12 indicators across three subsystems: pressure, state, and response (see

Table 1. Evaluation index system for intensive land utilization in Sichuan Province based on the PSR model.

Target Layer	Standardized Layer	Indicator Layer	Indicator Description	Unit
Extent of intensive utilization of arable land	Pressure subsystem (P)	Per Capita GDP	Regional GDP per capita	10,000 yuan per capita
		Population Density	Population per unit area of land	capita/ha
		Per Capita Arable Land	Arable land area per capita	ha/capita
		Food Security	Per capita grain yield (normalized to 400 kg)	%
	State subsystem (S)	Output Value per Unit Area of Land	Total agricultural output value per unit area of arable land	10,000 yuan/ha
		Grain Yield per Unit Area	Total grain production per unit area of arable land	kg/ ha
		Multiple Cropping Index	Total sown area per unit area of arable land	%
		Irrigation Index	Effective irrigation area per unit area of arable land	%
	Response subsystem (R)	Machinery Input	Total power of agricultural machinery per unit area of arable land	kw/ha
		Plastic Mulching Input Index	Agricultural plastic film uses per unit area of arable land	%
		Pesticide Input Index	Pesticide use per unit area of arable land	kg/ha
		Fertilizer Input Index	Fertilizer application per unit area of arable land	kg/ha

). These indicators were chosen based on three criteria: comprehensiveness, relevance, and accessibility.

Among them, the indicators of per capita GDP, population density, per capita arable land, and food security reflect the pressure on intensive utilization of arable land caused by socioeconomic development, demographic changes, and public emergencies [43]. Specifically, the per capita GDP reflects the competitive demand for arable land resources driven by economic development; the population density measures the degree of tension in the relationship between humans and the environment; the per capita arable land represents the scarcity of arable land resources; and the food security reflects the pressure of food demand. These four indicators not only reflect conventional socioeconomic pressures but also effectively capture the special impacts brought about by public emergencies. As for the latter, the economic fluctuations caused by these events will be immediately reflected in the changes in per capita GDP. Moreover, the changes in population mobility triggered by prevention and control policies directly affect the distribution of population density, while the indicator of food security is sensitive to supply chain disruptions. In short, the pressure subsystem (P) comprehensively captures the internal and external pressures faced by the intensive use of arable land.

The indicators of output value per unit area of land, grain yield per unit area, multiple cropping index, and irrigation index are used to depict the output performance of intensive land use under pressure, i.e., the state (S) subsystem under pressure [7,44,45]. These four indicators of the state (S) subsystem serve as the “barometer” for the intensive use of arable land. Specifically, the output value per unit area of land reflects economic benefits; the grain yield per unit area measures land productivity; the multiple cropping index characterizes the intensity of land use; and the irrigation index displays the degree of production condition guarantee. In addition, these indicators are highly responsive to the shocks of public emergencies. The labor shortage directly leads to a decrease in the multiple cropping index. The supply chain interruption could affect the grain yield per unit, and the damage to infrastructure is manifested as a decline in the irrigation index. These immediate changes provide an objective basis for assessing the impact of public emergencies.

Machinery input, plastic mulching input index, pesticide input index, and fertilizer input index represent adaptive strategies or the responses adopted by governments and agricultural operators to address pressures of intensive arable land utilization [15,46]. These four indicators of the response subsystem (R) systematically document the adaptive measures. In this regard, the machinery input reflects the degree of labor substitution through mechanization; the plastic mulching input index captures technological adoption for crop protection; and the pesticide/fertilizer input indices quantify the intensity of modern production factor applications. In the context of public emergencies, the changes in these indicators reveal different response strategies. When there is a shortage of labor, there is an increase in machinery input, and when the climate is abnormal, the use of plastic mulching increases. By contrast, pesticide and fertilizer inputs may fluctuate due to supply chain or policy regulation adjustments. It is particularly noteworthy that these response indicators operate within optimal ranges, and excessive investment can hinder the sustained improvement of intensive utilization levels.

3.1.2. Determination of Indicator Weights

Entropy, a measure of system disorder, quantifies the effective information provided by data [47]. The entropy method determines weight coefficients based on the degree of variation among indicators, addressing the need for objective weight assignment in evaluation systems [48]. Considering the intricacy of intensive arable land utilization, this study adopts the entropy method, a well-established objective weighting technique, to assign weights to the evaluation indicators. By using this method, the subjectivity typically associated with subjective weighting approaches can be effectively circumvented, enabling an objective reflection of the significance of each indicator within the PSR framework.

In order to ensure the comparability among indicators, raw data were standardized before weight calculation to eliminate dimensional discrepancies. In the evaluation system, negative indicators (e.g., population density) were transformed to invert their directionality, moderate indicators (e.g., pesticide/fertilizer input) were normalized around an optimal value, and positive indicators (e.g., land productivity, irrigation efficiency) were scaled directly. The standardization formulas are as follows:

$$X_i={\displaystyle \frac{x_i-m_i}{M_i-m_i}}, x_i \mathrm{is}\mathrm{the}\mathrm{positive}\mathrm{indicator}$$

(1)

$$X_i={\displaystyle \frac{m_i-x_i}{M_i-m_i}}, x_i \mathrm{is}\mathrm{the}\mathrm{negative}\mathrm{indicator}$$

(2)

where $X_i$ represents the standardized values; $x_i$ is the original value of each indicator, $M_i$ is the maximum value of the original value of the ith indicator, and $m_i$ is the minimum value of the original value of the ith indicator.

After standardizing the raw data, the entropy method was used to determine the weight coefficients of the indicators. The formula of the method is as follows:

$$w_i={\displaystyle \frac{1-\left(-k{\sum }_{i=1}^n{p}_{i}ln{p}_i\right)}{{\sum }_{i=1}^n\left[1-\left(-k{\sum }_{i=1}^n{p}_{i}ln{p}_i\right)\right]}}$$

(3)

where $w_i$ is the entropy weight value of the ith indicator; k is the number of samples; $p_i$ is the ratio of the indicator value of the evaluation object on the ith evaluation indicator, $p_i=x_i/{\sum }_{i=1}^n{x}_i$. Following the entropy method’s calculation steps, the weights for intensive arable land utilization evaluation indicators were derived (

Table 2. Weighting of evaluation indicators for intensive land use in Sichuan Province.

Target Layer	Standardized Layer	Indicator Layer	Indicator Weight
Extent of intensive utilization of arable land	Pressure subsystem (P)	Per Capita GDP	0.0532
		Population Density	0.1119
		Per Capita Arable Land	0.1165
		Food Security	0.0969
	State subsystem (S)	Output Value per Unit Area of Land	0.0675
		Grain Yield per Unit Area	0.1057
		Multiple Cropping Index	0.1122
		Irrigation Index	0.0806
	Response subsystem (R)	Machinery Input	0.0847
		Plastic Mulching Input Index	0.0461
		Pesticide Input Index	0.0693
		Fertilizer Input Index	0.0554

).

3.1.3. Multi-Factor Integrated Evaluation Method

Within the PSR framework, the intensive utilization of arable land is influenced by multidimensional factors from the pressure (P), state (S), and response (R) subsystems. To comprehensively evaluate this process, this study uses a multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method to measure the intensive utilization of arable land in Sichuan Province. The formula is as follows:

$$T=P+S+R={\sum }_{j=1}^3{r}_j{\sum }_{i=1}^n{w}_i{X}_i$$

(4)

where T is the arable land intensive utilization level, with values approaching 1 indicating optimal performance. P, S, and R represent the comprehensive scores of the pressure, state, and response subsystems, respectively; $r_j$ represents the jth indicator in the guideline layer; $w_i$ is the weight of the ith indicator calculated by the entropy value method; and $X_i$ is the value of the ith indicator after standardization.

3.1.4. PSR Subsystem Coordination Degree

The evaluation index system under the PSR framework differs from the general comprehensive evaluation index system in that the pressure (P), state (S), and response subsystems (R) do not merely represent the decomposition relationship of subsystems to the total system but instead exhibit distinct characteristics [49]. To explore the human-land interaction underlying intensive arable land use, this study introduces the PSR system coordination degree to quantify the cyclic relationship between human activities and arable land resources. The formula for the PSR system coordination degree is as follows:

$$C={\displaystyle \frac{P+S+R}{\sqrt{P^2+S^2+R^2}}}$$

(5)

where C is the PSR system coordination degree, and the closer its value is to $\sqrt{3}$ the better the overall system coordination is; P, S and R represent the combined scores of the pressure, state, and response subsystem, respectively.

3.1.5. Diagnostic Model of Obstacle Degree

In order to further identify the significance of factors constraining the intensive use of arable land and pinpoint the obstacle factors, this study employs an obstacle-degree diagnostic model. This model calculates the obstacle degrees for indicators, ranks them from highest to lowest, and analyzes key barriers. Moreover, obstacle degree analysis involves three components: factor contribution degree, indicator deviation degree, and obstacle degree. The degree of factor contribution reflects the degree of the influence of a single indicator on the whole degree of intensive utilization of arable land. The indicator deviation degree measures the gap between an indicator’s value and the target for intensive land utilization. The obstacle degree quantifies the constraint exerted by the corresponding indicator to the intensive utilization of arable land [50]. The formulas are as follows:

$$F_j=Z_i\times W_{ij}$$

(6)

$$D_j=1-X_j$$

(7)

$$H_j={\displaystyle \frac{\left(F_j\times D_j\right)}{{\sum }_{j=1}^n\left(F_j\times D_j\right)}}\times 100\%$$

(8)

where $F_j$ is the factor contribution; $Z_i$ is the weight of the ith subsystem; $W_{ij}$ is the weight of the jth indicator in the ith subsystem; $D_j$ is the indicator deviation; $X_j$ is the value of the jth indicator after standardization; $H_j$ is the barrier degree of the ith indicator to the total system; and n is the number of indicators in the indicator system.

3.2. Data Sources

The raw data for each indicator used in the study were sourced from relevant materials such as the Sichuan Statistical Yearbook [51], China Statistical Yearbook [52], China Financial Yearbook [53], China Grain Yearbook [54], China Agricultural Statistical Data [55], Sichuan Provincial Statistical Bulletin on National Economic and Social Development [56], China Rural Statistical Yearbook [57], and China Environmental Statistical Yearbook [58] from 2016 to 2023. It should be noted that due to the shocks of public emergencies in Sichuan Province (such as floods, COVID-19, etc.), the relevant data in certain years will be affected by the statistical cycle characteristics and the actual situations so that the data in a particular year will be transmitted by the impact of other years. This is a normal phenomenon in longitudinal data analysis, and this factor will be taken into account in the subsequent analysis.

As the southwestern strategic hub of China’s food security framework, Sichuan Province holds the dual distinction of being officially designated as one of the nation’s 13 major grain-producing regions and the only western province in this critical category. In 2023, the province achieved a record grain output of 35.94 million metric tons (71.88 billion catties), securing ninth place nationally and ranking third in growth rate among major grain-producing provinces. Particularly noteworthy is the rice yield of 535 kg per mu (8025 kg/ha), surpassing the national average by 12%. Through the “Heavenly Granary · Hundred Counties and Thousand Pieces” construction action (2024–2026), Sichuan Province plans to promote the construction of 1000 high-yield plots of 1000 acres in 115 counties. This ambitious program targets an annual yield increase exceeding 10%, which is projected to drive annual grain production growth of 500 million kilograms. As agricultural modernization progresses, Sichuan is poised to strengthen its role as the national “Heavenly Granary” and become an increasingly vital component in China’s food security framework. Amid the impacts of the uncertain COVID-19 pandemic, the intensive utilization of arable land in Sichuan Province confronts multiple challenges. This predicament renders it a quintessential case for the analysis of issues related to the intensive utilization of arable land. Figure 2 shows the location of Sichuan Province and the distribution of arable land in the province in 2023. The figure was processed using ArcGIS 10.8 software on the annual China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD) [59], and the arable land area in Sichuan Province in 2023 was 11,087,325.09 ha.

4. Results

4.1. Analysis of the Intensive Utilization Level of Arable Land

4.1.1. Evaluation of Intensive Utilization Degree of Arable Land

Based on the evaluation index system for intensive arable land utilization constructed under the PSR model (Table 1) and the entropy-based weights (Table 2), the multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method was further applied to calculate the PSR subsystem values and the total intensive utilization degree of arable land in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2022 (

Table 3. PSR subsystem values and intensive utilization degree of arable land in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2022.

Years	Pressure Subsystem (P)	State Subsystem (S)	Response Subsystem (R)	Intensive Utilization Degree of Arable Land (T)
2015	0.2532	0.0033	0.0987	0.3553
2016	0.2395	0.0195	0.0846	0.3436
2017	0.2108	0.0362	0.0740	0.3211
2018	0.2247	0.0810	0.0606	0.3663
2019	0.0504	0.2975	0.2421	0.5900
2020	0.0704	0.3260	0.1878	0.5842
2021	0.1463	0.3482	0.1684	0.6629
2022	0.0816	0.3793	0.1763	0.6372

). A line graph depicting the PSR subsystem scores and the total intensive land use degree from 2015 to 2022 was then generated (Figure 3).

• (1) Pressure subsystem (P)

The variation in the pressure subsystem (P) values can be divided into two phases: phase Ⅰ encompasses the years from 2015 to 2018, while phase Ⅱ extends from 2019 to 2022. The absolute values of the pressure subsystem (P) in each year of phase Ⅰ are higher than those of the subsequent phase, indicating that the pressure faced by the intensive utilization of arable land in Sichuan Province during the period from 2015 to 2018 is less than that in phase Ⅱ. However, the value of the pressure subsystem (P) at the beginning of phase Ⅱ exhibits an abrupt decrease from 0.2247 in 2018 to 0.0504 in 2019, reflecting a sudden increase in the pressure on the intensive utilization of cultivated land in Sichuan Province in 2019. Although values showed a slight recovery in 2020–2021, indicating temporary relief, the values dropped again to 0.0816 in 2022, indicating renewed upward pressure. Overall, the pressure subsystem (P) exhibited dynamic fluctuations, indicating that pressures on intensive land utilization have fluctuated cyclically amid socioeconomic development, population growth, and the impact of public emergencies (Especially frequent floods and COVID-19).

In 2019, Sichuan Province faced the shocks of multiple public emergencies, which suddenly intensified pressures on the intensive use of arable land. In the summer of 2019, heavy rainfall affected many areas in the province, triggering floods and waterlogging and resulting in arable land being flooded and water conservancy facilities being damaged. The reduction in per capita available arable land area further exacerbated the pressures on intensive use of arable land in Sichuan Province. In late 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic emerged as a public health emergency, exerting significant external pressures on the intensive utilization of arable land in Sichuan Province from multiple perspectives. The epidemic’s spread and the subsequent implementation of preventive and control measures severely disrupted agricultural production and supply chain systems. In 2020, strict lockdown policies led to shortages of agricultural inputs and obstructions of transportation, particularly during the critical planting and harvesting seasons, making it harder to access seeds, fertilizers, and other essential resources. Concurrently, restricted rural labor mobility exacerbated mismatches between returning migrant workers and local laborers, directly reducing the efficiency of agricultural production and intensifying pressures on intensive land use. The global economic recession triggered by the epidemic and the subsequent decline in income further exacerbated the economic pressures on the intensive utilization of arable land. Fluctuating agricultural prices and rising agricultural input costs have weakened farmers’ incentives to be engaged in agricultural production, leading to arable land abandonment in some areas in Sichuan. Concurrently, the pressure on food security has escalated considerably due to the epidemic, prompting the central government of China to impose heightened demands on the protection of arable land and to assign an augmented responsibility to local governments in this regard. However, pandemic-related challenges, including difficulties in policy implementation, have further exacerbated external pressures on the intensive utilization of regional arable land. The confluence of the COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly altered the environmental conditions for intensive use of arable land in Sichuan Province through multiple external channels, including supply chain disruptions, labor mismatches, economic fluctuations, increased demand for food security, and competition for non-agricultural land, driving dynamic changes in pressure subsystem.

• (2) State subsystem (S) and Response subsystem (R)

The value of the state subsystem (S) showed a monotonically increasing trend, increasing gradually from 0.0033 in 2015 to 0.3793 in 2022. This indicates that Sichuan Province maintained stable improvements in arable land productivity throughout the study period, especially during the 2019–2022 public emergency phase. This improvement reflects a healthy state of intensive land use in Sichuan Province. The absolute values of all years in the second phase of the response subsystem (R) (2019–2022) are higher than those in the first phase (2015–2018), demonstrating that local policymakers and land operators intensified adaptive measures in response to the external pressures on the intensive arable land utilization.

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the central government of China and the local government of Sichuan Province have consistently attached great importance to food security. Through the implementation of the strategy of “boosting grain production through farmland management and the application of technology”, the policymakers have considerably augmented their support for the protection of arable land and its intensive utilization of it. To address the challenges posed by the pandemic, China’s central government and provincial authority of Sichuan Province promulgated targeted policy directives, including the Guidelines for Spring Plowing Production, Notice on Supporting Stable Agricultural Production and Supply During COVID-19 Prevention and Control, and Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Circular on Strengthening Crop Pest Control. Among them, the Guidelines for Spring Plowing Production detailed policymakers’ strategies and priorities for enhancing critical agricultural inputs, including machinery utilization, plastic mulching, and the application of pesticides and fertilizers. Driven by the need for COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control, the document aimed to restore agricultural production order through a graded and zoned approach. It emphasized the need to eliminate blockages in the supply of agricultural inputs (such as plastic mulching, pesticides, and fertilizers) and to facilitate agricultural machinery operations, thereby minimizing the impact of epidemic prevention measures on arable land use. Additionally, it called for the resumption of production by enterprises supplying agricultural inputs. The guidelines advocated for the full resumption of production by enterprises that produce seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, plastic mulching, and other agricultural inputs critical to arable land use. Furthermore, it also promoted the delivery of agricultural inputs to villages and households and highlighted the resolution of the “last mile” issue in the transportation and sales of agricultural inputs by establishing a “point-to-point” supply guarantee for agricultural inputs and creating a green channel for the transportation of raw materials and products for fertilizer production. These initiatives prioritized increasing critical agricultural inputs—such as machinery, plastic mulching, pesticides, and fertilizers—to accelerate the restoration of food production systems, ensure a timely supply of farming materials, and maintain continuity in intensive land use. The efficacy of these policy supports was evident in Sichuan Province’s ability to sustain high levels of intensive arable land utilization despite pandemic disruptions, thereby providing a solid foundation for regional food security.

• (3) Degree of intensive utilization of arable land (T)

The total degree of intensive utilization of arable land in Sichuan Province in China exhibited a steady upward trend from 2015 to 2022, with notable growth persisting even amid the disruptions of the unexpected COVID-19 pandemic. This trend underscores Sichuan province’s resilience in maintaining arable land productivity and efficiency despite complex external challenges. From 2015 to 2018, the growth in the degree of intensive utilization of cropland remained relatively stagnant, suggesting that the optimization and improvement of arable land intensification are still in the nascent stage of development. However, with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, external pressures on agricultural systems intensified abruptly. Despite these challenges, the degree of intensive cropland utilization in Sichuan Province continued to increase, highlighting the resilience and robust nature of its agricultural practices. In the subsequent years, 2020 and 2021, despite a more complex external environment due to the ongoing pandemic, the intensity of arable land utilization maintained an upward trend, bolstered by progressively strengthened policy support. By 2022, the level of intensive arable land utilization reached its peak during the research period, indicating that Sichuan Province had successfully optimized land use through effective policy guidance and implementation, even under multiple external pressures. A comprehensive analysis of the data indicates that the intensive utilization of arable land in Sichuan exhibits a stable and positive development trajectory, underscoring the effectiveness of policy frameworks and governance capabilities in fostering resilience.

4.1.2. Analysis of PSR System Coordination Degree

The intensive utilization of arable land is the result of a combined effect of three factors: human activity pressure, arable land utilization state, and management decision response. To elucidate the human-land relationship underlying the intensive utilization of arable land, the study further calculates and analyzes the PSR system coordination degree from 2015 to 2022 in Sichuan Province (Figure 4), providing insights into the coordination among the pressure, state, and response subsystems.

Overall, the PSR system coordination degree in Sichuan Province showed a sustained upward trend from 2015 to 2021, reaching a peak of 1.6030 in 2021. This increase reflected strengthening synergy among the pressure, state, and response subsystems, driven by Sichuan’s continuous efforts in promoting intensive arable land utilization. These efforts included the proactive implementation of the national strategy of boosting grain production through farmland management and the application of technology, the strengthening of arable land protection, the construction of high-standard farmland, and the vigorous promotion of modern agricultural technology. All these measures enhanced the efficiency of intensive arable land utilization, stabilized land productivity, and demonstrated the timeliness and effectiveness of policy responses. However, the degree of coordination declined to 1.4953 in 2022, indicating a weakening of the system coordination. This shift was closely linked to Sichuan Province’s specific development context, including the pandemic aftereffects and the economic uncertainties. Specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought persistent disruptions to the agricultural production supply chains and labor mobility within the province. Furthermore, external economic uncertainties may exacerbate challenges related to escalating input costs and reduced production incentives, thereby undermining the overall arable land utilization performance.

Despite substantial improvements in the coordination of the PSR system in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2021, the absolute coordination value remained significantly below the theoretical optimal value of √3, reflecting the persistent systemic challenges in intensive arable land use in Sichuan Province. On the one hand, the persistent pressure on arable land, driven by population growth and economic development, has become particularly pronounced in the context of rapid urbanization. This has intensified the conflict between arable land preservation and urban expansion, making issues related to agricultural land use and food security increasingly significant. On the other hand, while policy responses have gradually increased, their actual implementation faces challenges such as inadequate local governance capacity and the need to enhance resource allocation efficiency. Consequently, there is a noticeable gap between the intended effectiveness of these policies and their actual outcomes. The decline in coordination observed in 2022 serves as a further warning for Sichuan Province, especially during its response to public emergencies (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) and complex socioeconomic environments. The dynamic equilibrium of the cropland-intensive utilization system has yet to be fully achieved. Future improvements should focus on enhancing synergies within the system, particularly under escalating pressures. These enhancements should prioritize refining and adapting policies, optimizing resource allocation efficiency, and concurrently emphasizing the enhancement of agricultural production capacity while safeguarding the ecological function of arable land.

4.2. Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors of Intensive Utilization of Arable Land

With the continuous changes in agricultural production and socioeconomic environment, intensive utilization of arable land in Sichuan Province faces multiple constraints. In order to further explore the differences in these constraints, this study used an obstacle degree diagnostic model to quantify their impacts, ranked the resulting indicator scores in descending order (

Table 4. Ranking of obstacles to intensive land use in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2022.

	Sorted	1	2	3	4	5
Years
2015		Multiple Cropping Index	Grain Yield per Unit Area	Irrigation Index	Food Security	Output Value per Unit Area of Land
2016		Multiple Cropping Index	Grain Yield per Unit Area	Irrigation Index	Output Value per Unit Area of Land	Power Input Index
2017		Multiple Cropping Index	Grain Yield per Unit Area	Food Security	Irrigation Index	Population Density
2018		Multiple Cropping Index	Grain Yield per Unit Area	Food Security	Population Density	Irrigation Index
2019		Per Capita Arable Land	Population Density	Food Security	Output Value per Unit Area of Land	Multiple Cropping Index
2020		Per Capita Arable Land	Population Density	Food Security	Pesticide Input Index	Output Value per Unit Area of Land
2021		Per Capita Arable Land	Population Density	Pesticide Input Index	Fertilizer Input Index	Output Value per Unit Area of Land
2022		Per Capita Arable Land	Population Density	Food Security	Pesticide Input Index	Fertilizer Input Index

), and combined these with original indicator data to identify the primary constraints on intensive arable land utilization in Sichuan Province.

4.2.1. 2015–2018: Traditional Production Factor Constraints

From 2015 to 2018, the primary factors impeding the intensive utilization of arable land in Sichuan Province were the multiple cropping index, grain yield per unit area, and irrigation index, with the multiple cropping index consistently ranking first. These factors reflected the limitations of traditional agricultural production modes in improving land use efficiency and revealed the constraints imposed by agricultural infrastructure and policy environment on intensive arable land use performance.

The multiple cropping index was the primary obstacle factor from 2015 to 2018, with a fluctuation of approximately 14%, which was notably lower than the 18–19% range observed from 2019 to 2022. The lower multiple cropping index is indicative of the challenges associated with promoting the multi-maturing planting pattern in agricultural production in Sichuan Province. On the one hand, the accelerated development of urbanization has had a significant crowding-out effect on replanting activities. In recent years, Sichuan Province has vigorously promoted the construction of small and medium-sized towns. Since 2017, Sichuan Province has implemented the “Hundred Towns Construction Initiative”, cultivating 300 pilot demonstration towns and establishing a development model centered on industrial, commercial, and tourism-oriented characteristic towns. In 2018, Panzhihua City, under the jurisdiction of Sichuan Province, issued the “Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Construction of Characteristic Towns”. The plan was to cultivate eight municipal characteristic towns and 3–4 provincial characteristic towns by 2022. In 2019, the Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of Sichuan Province announced the third batch of provincial-level characteristic small towns, such as Ma’an Town in Yilong County and Laoguan Town in Langzhong City. These measures have accelerated the expansion of urban land and amplified the trend of converting arable land for non-agricultural uses. Prior to the conversion of arable land into construction land, peasants exhibited a decline in agricultural inputs and a reduction in replanting behavior, attributable to the heightened uncertainty surrounding the land’s future use. This phenomenon of non-agricultural use of arable land is predicted to diminish peasants’ inclination to cultivate a greater quantity of crops, thereby impeding the intensive use of arable land.

Sichuan Province has implemented substantial initiatives to promote the development of small and medium-sized towns in recent years, resulting in an expansion of urban land and a discernible trend of non-agricultural use of arable land resources. Prior to the conversion of arable land into construction land, peasants exhibited a decline in agricultural inputs and a reduction in replanting behavior, attributable to the heightened uncertainty surrounding the land’s future use. This phenomenon of non-agricultural use of arable land is predicted to diminish peasants’ inclination to cultivate a greater quantity of crops, thereby impeding the intensive use of arable land.

Conversely, the low replanting rate is also closely related to the transfer of agricultural labor. Sichuan Province, a major labor-exporting province, has experienced an intensification of rural-urban migration, leading to a continuous reduction in agricultural labor. This has resulted in a shortening of the agricultural production cycle and a decline in the demand for replanting. This labor shortage has further exacerbated the prevalence of single-crop planting patterns, weakening the efficiency of intensive utilization of arable land.

Grain yield per unit area, an important indicator of the output level of intensive utilization of arable land, was the second most significant obstacle factor from 2015 to 2018. During this period, the grain yield in Sichuan Province ranged from 51,145.38 to 51,967.93 kg per ha., which was notably lower than the level of 66,928.75 to 68,948.86 kg per ha attained in the following 2019–2022 period. During the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan in China, Sichuan Province underwent rapid urbanization, leading to an expansion of urban construction that resulted in a further reduction in arable land. This, in turn, led to a decline in grain production. Although the government in Sichuan province took significant measures to support grain production during the following period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, including the reinforcement of policies aimed at benefiting peasants, an increase in capital investment, and the adjustments to the planting structure and the farming system, the reduction in the cultivated land area in Sichuan Province had overall contributed to observable constraints on grain yield [60]. Lower grain yields are indicative of the low production efficiency of arable land, which can directly impact the economic returns of agricultural land operators. This, in turn, can weaken the willingness of the operators to invest in modernized agricultural technology, impeding the formation of the impetus for technological upgrading. Consequently, this would lead to a “low input-low output” vicious cycle. This vicious cycle hinders the intensive utilization of arable land and the improvement of production efficiency. Concurrently, the topography of Sichuan Province, in conjunction with the encroachment of high-quality arable land by urbanization, has precipitated an exacerbation of the fragmentation of arable land, thereby constraining the advancement of large-scale agricultural development.

During this period, the irrigation index also emerged as a critical constraint on the intensive utilization of arable land in Sichuan Province. From 2015 to 2018, the index fluctuated around 4.2%, notably lower than the approximately 5.7% recorded during the 2019–2022 period. This lower irrigation index directly reflects deficiencies in both the coverage of irrigation infrastructure and water utilization efficiency, which jointly undermine the productive potential of arable land. Inadequate investment in the construction and maintenance of water management systems has resulted in suboptimal irrigation coverage and operational inefficiencies, ultimately limiting effective cropland irrigation and hindering the progress toward sustainable intensification [61]. The lower irrigation index in Sichuan Province during this period indicates that the irrigation efficiency of arable land is suboptimal, which may result in issues such as water wastage and soil salinization. Consequently, this may further lead to a reduction in the effective utilization of arable water, thereby impeding the improvement of intensive arable land utilization in Sichuan Province.

4.2.2. 2019–2022: Public Emergency Shocks

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic at the end of 2019, the intensive use of arable land in Sichuan Province has encountered numerous challenges, with per capita arable land, population density, and input index of pesticides and fertilizers emerging as the primary obstacle factors.

The scarcity of arable land exacerbates land distribution inequalities, driving farmland fragmentation and creating systemic barriers to mechanization and intensive agricultural practices. This issue was further amplified during the pandemic, as the mass return of migrant workers to rural areas intensified pressure on limited land resources. This has led to significant challenges, including the difficulty in implementing large-scale operations, the constraints in the adoption of modern agricultural technologies and machinery, and a decline in the overall productivity of arable land. Concurrently, the returning workforce’s lack of agricultural skills has precipitated negligent land utilization, impeding the comprehensive exploitation of arable land’s productive capacity and further hampering the augmentation of intensive use.

Additionally, high population density imposes considerable external pressure on the intensive use of arable land in Sichuan Province. The population density experienced an increase during the epidemic, which could lead to the over-utilization of arable land and the decline in soil quality, thus constraining the sustainable and intensive use of arable land. Moreover, the surge in population density has placed mounting demands on rural infrastructure and public services. Fiscal constraints during the epidemic have hindered the ability to meet these demands, thereby implicitly affecting the intensive use of arable land.

It is noteworthy that the input indices of pesticides and chemical fertilizers also emerged as significant constraints on the intensive use of arable land during this period. The factors that contribute to the sustainability of arable land intensive use include intensive operation, efficient output, resource conservation, environmental ecology, and sustainable social development. Improper use of pesticides and fertilizers can hinder the sustainability of intensive use of arable land. The increased use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers can lead to soil and water contamination, which can adversely impact the arable land ecosystem, thereby constraining further intensive utilization of arable land. During the pandemic, disruptions to pesticide and fertilizer supply chains led to price hikes and supply instability, prompting farmers to reduce inputs. While this may have mitigated agricultural non-point source pollution to some extent, it also resulted in short-term crop yield declines, undermining the incomes of farmers and the economic viability of arable land [62,63,64]. Moreover, restricted technology dissemination during the pandemic impaired farmers’ adoption of precision fertilization and pesticide application technologies, further reducing input efficiency and hindering sustainable intensification of arable land utilization.

5. Discussion

5.1. Research Generalizability

The study’s analytical framework demonstrates robust adaptability to diverse public emergencies. Conceptually designed for general public emergencies—encompassing pandemics, natural disasters (e.g., floods, droughts), geopolitical conflicts, and other systemic shocks—it captures how such events intensify pressures on arable land intensification through socioeconomic disruptions, food supply-demand imbalances, and heightened human-land conflicts, all of which directly impact food security. By dissecting these pressure pathways, the research offers transferable analytical insights for evaluating arable land use pressures under analogous event scenarios. In addition, when the production status of intensive use of arable land changes due to the shocks of public emergencies, the response strategies of policymakers or arable land operators are also applicable to other regions. The framework’s core “pressure-state-response” (PSR) logic provides a universal analytical lens, enabling stakeholders in diverse contexts to map crisis-induced changes in land use systems, design context-specific adaptation strategies, and foster resilience-oriented decision making. This theoretical portability ensures that the study’s framework is an effective tool for navigating the complex interplay between public emergency management and sustainable land governance. Furthermore, this study applies a barrier degree diagnostic model to systematically identify and analyze critical constraints, quantifying their impacts through barrier degree calculations and dissecting their specific influences on intensive arable land utilization performance.

5.2. Limitations and Future Directions

While this study provides valuable insights into the intensive utilization of arable land from the perspective of public emergencies, it is important to identify certain limitations that highlight important directions for future research. The primary limitations are the short time interval of data utilized for the intensity assessment and the lack of rigorous counterfactual analysis methods to measure the net impact of public emergencies on the intensive utilization of arable land. Correspondingly, we propose two key directions for future research. First, extend the time interval to provide more critical insights into how public emergencies impact the intensive use of arable land. Second, rigorous counterfactual analysis methods explore the net impact of public emergencies on intensive arable land use.

5.3. Policy Implications

The research offers the following strategic insights for local governments to maintain intensive arable land use amid uncertain public emergencies:

(1)

Local governments should adopt policy instruments to enhance intensive arable land utilization from a systematic pressure-state response (PSR) perspective. With the rapid socioeconomic development, increasing population density, and compounded shocks from public emergencies, human activities have significantly affected arable land use, leading to systemic fluctuations in pressures on intensive land use. In response to these external pressures and the uncertain shocks of public emergencies, policymakers should monitor comprehensive changes in input factors and adopt proactive responses to ensure the supply of critical agricultural inputs, including fertilizers, pesticides, plastic mulching, and mechanized power. At the national level, it is crucial to take the lead in cross-regional resource allocation. This includes establishing strategic reserves of fertilizers and pesticides. Additionally, national technical standards should be formulated, such as standards for promoting biodegradable plastic mulching. Moreover, the legal framework for arable land protection needs to be enhanced. At the local level, the emphasis should be on dynamically monitoring changes in input factors. One way to achieve this is by establishing a county-level agricultural supply and demand warning system. Furthermore, differentiated response measures should be implemented, such as increasing agricultural machinery subsidies for severely affected areas. Through the collaborative mechanism, we can not only cope with the uncertainties brought about by public emergencies but also systematically ensure the stable supply of key agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers, pesticides, plastic mulching, and machinery, thereby achieving resilience improvement in the intensive use of arable land.

(2)

Local governments should dynamically adjust specific supportive policies based on key barrier factors affecting intensive arable land utilization. Examining the obstacles to the intensive utilization of arable land in Sichuan Province in China reveals that primary constraints have transferred from multiple cropping index, grain yields, and irrigation index to per capita arable land, population density, and pesticide and chemical fertilizer inputs. These shifts signify the constraints imposed by the abrupt transformation of the agricultural production mode. These shifts also indicate the hindering effect of demographic and social factors that have undergone changes due to public emergencies, which are of great importance to the adjustment of related policies. The findings of our study underscore the necessity of conducting a comprehensive analysis of the constraints on the intensive utilization of arable land and taking into account the dynamics of socioeconomic development across different time periods and under the shocks of public emergencies.

6. Conclusions

Under the impact of public emergencies, maintaining intensive arable land utilization has become a global imperative. This study constructs a comprehensive analytical framework based on the pressure-state response (PSR) model to systematically evaluate the pressure, state, and response subsystems underlying the intensive arable land utilization in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2022. By incorporating not only land use dynamics but also socioeconomic contexts and external interventions—particularly the shocks of public emergencies—the research transcends the limitations of traditional studies focusing on economic and social factors, offering a novel perspective on the analysis of the dynamic evolution of intensive land utilization. The main findings are as follows:

(1)

Despite the shocks of public emergencies, the intensive utilization level of arable land in Sichuan Province shows an overall upward trend, indicating a high level of resilience and adaptability.

(2)

Coordination among subsystems within the pressure-state response (PSR) framework remains suboptimal, and a dynamic equilibrium across the systems has not yet been fully achieved.

(3)

In the early stages of the research period, the obstacle factors affecting the intensive utilization of cultivated land in Sichuan Province were primarily manifested in aspects such as the multiple cropping index, grain yield per unit area, and irrigation index, while in the later stages, key obstacles shifted to factors including per capita cultivated land, population density, and pesticide/fertilizer input index, highlighting the impediment effects caused by evolving socio-demographic dynamics influenced by public emergencies.