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Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of the Plum Fruit Moth Grapholita funebrana Treitscheke Using Ensemble Models
by
,
Mingsheng Yang
1,2,*
,
Yiqi Huo
1,
Lei Wang
1,
Jialu Wang
1,
Shichao Zuo
1,
Chaoyun Pang
1,
Zhengbing Wang
1,2,
Hongfei Zhang
1,2,
Kedong Xu
2,3,4 and
Keshi Ma
1,2,* 1
College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China
2
Field Observation and Research Station of Green Agriculture in Dancheng County, Zhoukou 466001, China
3
Key Laboratory of Plant Genetics and Molecular Breeding, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China
4
Key Laboratory of Crop Molecular Breeding and Bioreactor, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Insects 2024, 15(9), 663; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15090663 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 23 May 2024
/
Revised: 18 August 2024
/
Accepted: 22 August 2024
/
Published: 30 August 2024
(This article belongs to the Section Insect Pest and Vector Management)
Simple Summary
The plum fruit moth, Grapholita funebrana Treitschke (Lepidoptera, Tortricidae), is an important agricultural pest that seriously affects fruit production across the Palearctic region. In this study, for the first time, we predict the potential global distribution of this pest using an ensemble species distribution model. The distribution range predicted, especially for those regions with highly suitable habitats for this moth in parts of East Asia and Europe, indicates a high risk of G. funebrana outbreaks and the accompanying massive economic losses, especially in plum and apricot production, highlighting the necessity of pest management. In the United States of America (USA) and Japan (for which G. funebrana distributions have not previously been recorded), especially in areas that are highly suitable for this moth, monitoring and quarantine measures should be strengthened to prevent the colonization of this pest and its subsequent wide dispersal.
Abstract
The plum fruit moth, Grapholita funebrana Treitschke, is one of the most significant borer pests, often causing huge economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest is still poorly understood. For this study, we simulated an ensemble species distribution model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of G. funebrana at a global scale. The results show that the suitable habitats for this moth, under current environmental conditions, are mainly distributed in Europe; East Asia, including China and Japan; Central Asia; and some parts of America. In future projections, the suitable habitats are predicted to generally expand northward, while the suitable area will remain unchanged overall. However, the area of highly suitable habitat will decrease to only 17.49% of that found under current conditions. None of the nine factors used were revealed to be predominant predictors in terms of contributing to the model, suggesting that the integrated effects of these variables shape G. funebrana’s distribution. In this study, the distribution range that has been predicted, especially for the regions with a highly suitable habitat, poses a high risk of G. funebrana outbreaks, highlighting the urgency of pest management. Moreover, in the United States of America (USA) and Japan (for which G. funebrana distributions were not previously recorded), especially in areas highly suitable for this moth, monitoring and quarantine measures should be strengthened to prevent the colonization and further dispersal of this pest, as seen with its close relative G. molesta, which has become a cosmopolitan pest species, migrating from its native region (East Asia) to other continents, including the Americas.
