2.1. Life Cycle Cost
According to Sacconi et al. (2021), LCC is “a probabilistic-based approach that considers uncertainties on loads, resistances, degradation, and on the numerical modeling and structural response analysis” [
5]. Several factors influence the LCC calculations for bridges, including the deterioration rate of bridge components, the discount rate, the service life of the bridge, and the uncertainty and variability of input parameters such as future traffic demand, environmental conditions, material properties, and unit costs of maintenance and repair. Additionally, Christensen (2009) states that LCC “is a method of evaluating the total costs and benefits of a structure over its service life, taking into account the initial costs, maintenance costs, failure costs, and user costs” [
6]. Furthermore, according to the Design Guide for Bridge for Service Life (2013), LCC is “an analysis methodology that assists in comparing and choosing alternative strategies for achieving long-term service life for bridge systems, subsystems, or elements” [
7]. Based on this literature, it can be concluded that LCC is an approach for determining the deterioration level of structural elements, in this case, bridges, to evaluate the necessary preservation costs early.
According to the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) report on Bridge Life Cycle Cost Analysis, five factors influence the results of LCC: discount rate, service life and analysis period, management strategy, agency and user cost, and vulnerability cost [
8]. Safi (2013) notes that the discount rate can significantly affect LCCA results, and theoretically, the discount rate tends to have a greater impact on bridge management than on bridge investment [
9]. Based on these studies, the discount rate has a significant influence on LCC calculations and should therefore be a primary consideration in the analysis process.
In conducting LCC calculations, various applications have different data requirements. One such application, RealCost 3.0, developed by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) in 2023, requires inputs including future maintenance and rehabilitation performance, initial performance, discount rate, initial cost, and future cost, with the output being the projected life cycle cost. Additionally, the supporting data necessary for this application include free-flow capacity, queue dissipation capacity, maximum AADT (Annual Average Daily Traffic), maximum queue length, and work zone capacity [
10].
On the other hand, Japan employs a different approach in conducting LCC calculations, focusing on the assessment of physical bridge conditions, particularly on structural elements. According to Kudo (2022), to improve LCC calculations, deterioration predictions must closely approximate actual deterioration in bridges. This condition is claimed to be highly effective in reducing total costs in LCC calculations [
11]. Given the field conditions where each damage type has its own deterioration model, applying management strategies tailored to each type of damage can significantly reduce total maintenance costs over the bridge’s service life. The application used for these calculations is the Intelligent Bridge Management System (iBMS), which requires specific input data such as physical condition values for each segment of its structural elements, material information for structural elements, general bridge information including operational year, target in-service period, and repair history.
As depicted in
Figure 1, the condition assessment of damages at a specific time shows distinct values for individual condition deterioration, where ‘a’ represents the best condition, while ‘e’ represents the worst. However, after undergoing calculations using the iBMS application, the probability of condition deterioration will be presented diversely based on the application’s predictive results. The probability values for each type of defect depend on the condition deterioration values obtained from visual inspections.
Several predictive models are utilized in the iBMS application, including the condition deterioration model based on the Salt (potassium chloride) Penetration Model as shown in Equation (1), the Rebar Corrosion Model in Equation (2), the Cracking Model in Equation (3), and the Spalling Model in Equation (4). These four models can be expressed by the following equations:
The Salt Penetration Model refers to the 2018 Standard Specification for Concrete Structures, which is intended for structural maintenance purposes [
12]. In this model,
represents the rate of change in salt concentration (
C) over time (
t), while
denotes the spatial diffusion of the salt concentration. Here,
is the diffusion coefficient for the salt (in this case, potassium chloride), and
is the gradient of the salt concentration with respect to the spatial coordinate (
x). This model is also used in various calculations for other studies, such as saltwater intrusion and saltwater penetration rate modeling [
13,
14,
15].
The Rebar Corrosion Model is based on research conducted by Nozomi Someya titled Electrochemical Method for Salt Damage—Improving the Accuracy of Steel Corrosion Evaluation in Concrete Structures [
16]. In this model,
represents the corrosion rate of the rebar;
is a factor that accounts for the surface area of the rebar;
is the molar mass of iron (
Fe), which is a component of the rebar;
is the corrosion current density, which measures the rate of the electrochemical reaction causing the corrosion;
is the valence number of iron, typically 2 in corrosion reactions; and
is the Faraday constant, which relates the amount of electric charge carried by one mole of electrons. This model is also applied in other studies, such as service life calculations, simulation processes, and condition deterioration predictions for marine environments [
17,
18,
19].
The Cracking Model uses an equation from the research conducted by Lukuan Qi and Hiroshi Seki, titled Analytical Study on Crack Generation Situation and Crack Width Due to Reinforcing Steel Corrosion [
20]. In this model,
represents the energy release rate or work done during crack propagation,
is a material constant or a factor related to the crack geometry,
represents a density-related parameter, and
represents surface energy or a material property related to fracture toughness. The terms
,
,
, and
are empirical constants or coefficients specific to the material or crack model.
represents the crack length or a related geometric parameter,
represents the modulus of elasticity of the material,
represents an initial crack length or a characteristic length parameter, and
denotes the compressive strength of the material. This model was introduced in the book Introduction to Fracture Mechanics [
21] and further detailed in Fracture Mechanics of Concrete Structures [
22].
The Spalling Model is based on research conducted by Seiichi Totori and Tayoaki Miyagawa, titled Deterioration Prediction of Concrete Structures Concerning Rebar Corrosion Due to Initially Induced Chlorides [
23]. In this model,
represents the spalling displacement or the amount of material that has spalled off,
refers to a characteristic length or a specific parameter related to the material or crack, and
represents another geometric parameter or material property. This model is also used in the FHWA specification titled Improved Prediction Model for PCC Pavement Performance [
24].
The model used in this study is designed for reinforced concrete bridges. The potential for corrosion in the reinforcing steel is a key factor in predicting the deterioration of bridge conditions. This is also considered due to the fact that both Japan and Indonesia face similar issues with carbonation in concrete elements, driven by environmental conditions. The total corrosion rate for each type of damage influences the deterioration prediction model, as analyzed through the iBMS application. Meanwhile, the surface condition deterioration of steel elements due to corrosion is addressed using a different formula, which is not detailed in this study and will be considered a limitation for future research.
The influence of zonation has been determined based on the provisions outlined in Japan’s Standard Specifications for Concrete Structures [
25], as shown in
Table 1. However, in this study, the bridges selected as samples are located in Indonesia, where the chloride ion concentration levels are not yet known. Therefore, this zonation was not used in the analysis for the iBMS application calculations in this study.
Indonesia is currently in the process of developing the concept of LCC calculation for bridge structures. However, the fundamental concept used in these calculations still refers to the programming guidelines of the Bridge Management System (BMS) developed by the Directorate General of Highway in 1992. According to this document, the basics of LCC calculation are based on several key data points: condition score, traffic score, and loading score [
26]. Additionally, supporting data for economic evaluation in the calculation include present value, discount rate, net present value, and internal rate of return. In addition, there is a difference in the service life between bridge designs in Indonesia, which adopt a 75-year lifespan, and in Japan, which uses a 100-year lifespan. However, this difference does not pose an issue in the iBMS application calculations, as the primary data used are the current structural condition, which may directly affect the existing deterioration rate.
Several challenges are encountered in the implementation of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis, one of which is data collection and integration. Gathering accurate and comprehensive data can be quite difficult [
27]. Additionally, environmental factors, traffic loads, and material degradation vary across regions [
28]. The available LCC models in different countries also exhibit varying levels of complexity, with differing data requirements [
29]. The final challenge lies in how LCC applications can be integrated with other modern tools, such as Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Bridge Information Modeling (BrIM), to ensure more effective use in the future [
30].
Based on the concepts discussed above, there are two fundamental methods in LCC calculations: the economic principle-based method and the physical condition-based method. Both the United States and Indonesia adhere to calculating based on AADT (Annual Average Daily Traffic) and incorporate economic principles such as discount rates. In contrast, Japan’s LCC calculation method focuses on the physical condition of bridges, using simulations to predict deterioration based on condition assessments. Actual condition deterioration is observed through visual inspections, validated by experts to minimize inspection errors. Furthermore, historical inspection data spanning several years can be utilized to predict future condition deterioration trends.
This research aims to focus on the unique iBMS application from Japan, specifically its method of calculating the total operational costs required for a bridge throughout its service life. iBMS distinguishes itself by determining a bridge’s operational costs based on the condition values derived from bridge inspections. Before these condition values are used in calculations, they undergo an automated correction process to ensure that the input values into the program are well calibrated. This calibration process is crucial in the analysis, as it corrects assessment errors and adjusts bridge deterioration prediction models statistically. Subsequently, the system generates several probability values for the condition, which serve as the basis for LCC calculations.
The statistical values result from a manual validation process conducted by multiple bridge experts over a development period of 10 years. This approach is claimed to be highly precise because it eliminates errors, corrects inspection outcomes, and proposes condition probability values deemed suitable for predicting deterioration rates.
In general practice, major interventions such as rehabilitation are typically undertaken when a bridge’s performance falls below applicable performance standards. However, iBMS operates with predefined performance targets tailored to maintain the bridge structure within operational conditions and to reduce total maintenance costs over the long term. Additionally, iBMS provides estimated condition values for the reviewed elements over time. If assessment errors occur during bridge inspections, iBMS evaluates and corrects these errors by offering alternative condition values deemed appropriate.
This systematic approach ensures that the bridge remains operational within specified performance criteria while minimizing the overall maintenance costs. It leverages predictive maintenance strategies to anticipate condition changes, thereby optimizing resource allocation and extending the bridge’s service life effectively.
With the unique features of iBMS calculations, this research is expected to provide substantial evidence of savings achievable in bridge preservation, optimizing through efficient calculation methods using the iBMS application. This is intended to serve as a guideline for LCC calculations in Indonesia.
Based on several existing studies, it can be concluded that Life Cycle Cost (LCC) calculations for bridges can be approached from both economic and condition-based perspectives, using historical data from visual inspections. This current study will adopt a deterioration model based on 10 years of historical visual inspection data collected in Japan.
2.2. Deterioration Model
In predicting deterioration, historical data and various statistical methods can be employed to enhance the accuracy of a deterioration model [
31]. A deterioration model is an approach used to forecast the degradation of infrastructure over its lifespan. Several commonly used approaches for deterioration modeling include deterministic models (such as regression), stochastic models (such as Markov chains), or artificial intelligence models. Each model has its strengths and weaknesses, as illustrated in
Table 2.
According to Malik M. and Armor B. (2024), the issues necessitate preventive, cyclic, or condition-driven maintenance measures to extend the service life of the bridge. Common types of damage in concrete bridge structures include concrete cracking, spalling, and surface deterioration due to environmental factors [
32]. These types of damage can cause a significant decline in the condition of the bridge over the years. In addition to surface damage caused by environmental factors, there is also damage resulting from traffic loads on the bridge.
To obtain a good model, it is crucial to have well-validated historical bridge condition data. Additionally, selecting independent data is necessary to ensure that these elements significantly influence the deterioration of bridge conditions. It is important to note that not all data available in bridge inspection databases contribute equally to condition deterioration; thus, careful consideration is essential.
In this study, the deterioration prediction of a bridge girder element is performed using a deterministic model, where the physical deterioration model of the bridge over the years becomes the predictive model utilized in the iBMS application, specifically for the girder structural elements. The deterministic model is used because the prediction data are derived from 10 years of historical visual inspection data on concrete girder elements, which is then refined with updated inspection results in subsequent years.
For bridges that do not have historical damage or maintenance data, LCC calculations can still be performed using the iBMS application. In this case, the data used consist of the current condition of the bridge elements, which will then be directly predicted based on the level of damage observed.
However, for other elements, such as bearings, substructures, and slabs, the application employs a stochastic model using the Markov model. This is illustrated in
Figure 2, which shows the soundness damage on the concrete surface due to rebar corrosion, with the probability transition of deterioration from a good condition (Condition I) to a worse condition (Condition III).