Perceptions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña Shape Fishers’ Adaptive Capacity and Resilience

Abstract

Much research has raised concerns about how a warming planet will interact with natural cyclical climatic variations, and the implications for the resilience and vulnerability of coastal communities. As the anticipated effects of climate change will continue to intensify, it is necessary to understand the response and adaptive capacity of individuals and communities. Coastal communities in Ecuador have evolved in an environment of such cyclical climatic variations referred to as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña. These climatic events are frequently characterized by extreme variations in precipitation, violent storms, and coastal flooding during El Niño and lowered sea water temperatures and drought during La Niña. This paper draws on survey data and long-term ethnographic research in Ecuadorian coastal communities to explore how fishers understand the impacts of ENSO and implications for their livelihood decisions and resilience to climate variability. The results suggest that fishers along the coast of Ecuador understand and respond differentially to the impacts of ENSO depending on social, cultural, environmental, and geographical factors. These differential levels of response suggest that livelihood diversification may uphold social resilience, which has implications for how coastal communities may adapt to the increasingly harsh weather conditions predicted by many climate models. Our findings further suggest that the impacts of El Niño are more salient than the impacts of La Niña; these findings have significant implications for fisheries management and science communication.

1. Introduction

Throughout the last forty years, powerful images of El Niño have increasingly appeared in the media—raging rivers that destroy everything in their path; helicopters that transport flood victims by air; and people on the ground scrambling to save their belongings and their lives. A growing body of research has raised concerns about how climate change affects the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and other major weather events (Gupta et al. 2019; Knutson et al. 2021; Stephens and Ramsay 2014; Ormaza-González et al. 2016). El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña are natural cyclical patterns of warming and cooling, which occur every 2 to 7 years. As scientists continue to debate the intricacies around how a warming planet will interact with natural atmospheric and biodiversity patterns coupled with socio-economic systems (Adamson 2021; Koenigstein et al. 2022; Yáñez et al. 2017), policy makers strategize measures for mitigation and adaptation to the intensification of these weather events. Such challenges call for a need to understand societal responses and resilience at multiple scales.

El Niño, the warm phase of ENSO, is characterized by an increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that trigger extreme variations in precipitation, violent storms, coastal flooding, and reduced salinity levels in estuaries, rivers, and coastal wetlands. The increased sea surface temperatures further inhibit the upwelling process, decreasing the nutrient availability for marine life. The reduced flow of nutrients to the surface alters the distribution, migration, biomass, size, and recruitment patterns among small pelagic fishes (Cornejo 2007; Jiménez 2008; Cahuin et al. 2013; Maldonado et al. 2021). The decrease in nutrient flow further results in the death of seabirds and pinnipeds that depend on small pelagic fish (e.g., mackerel). The cascading effects of torrential rains and flooding associated with El Niño can also have devastating effects on coastal infrastructure and communities that primarily depend on agriculture and fishing.

While the impacts of La Niña are often less dramatic than those described above, the lower SSTs and drought conditions can also have negative impacts on fisheries and agricultural activities at multiple scales. During La Niña events, increased upwelling triggers changes in the distribution of marine species and their food sources, shaping access to fishery resources (Swartzman et al. 2008). These changes in the spatial distribution of water masses affect the spatial composition of plankton (Ayón et al. 2008; Ochoa et al. 2010) and often result in the increased productivity of austral sardines (Sardinops sagax) (De la Cuadra 2010). However, there are concerns that the impacts of La Niña have not been fully addressed (Cai et al. 2014).

ENSO’s cycles of natural variability have important implications for the sustainability of fisheries at multiple scales from local to global. Most available research has focused on the more extreme effects of El Niño, cataloging impacts on the social (housing, health, education), infrastructural (water and sewage, energy and electricity, transportation and urban infrastructure, telecommunications), and economic sectors and sub-sectors (agriculture, livestock and fisheries, industry, commerce, and tourism) (cf. Farrow 2009; Vos et al. 1999; Cai et al. 2014). This work makes it clear that social, political, and infrastructural factors influence the severity of impacts, and makes recommendations to mitigate these impacts. While the increase in SST associated with El Niño can negatively affect pelagic fisheries, at the same time, there is often increased productivity of crustaceans such as commercially valuable species of wild shrimp that are prized in local, regional, and global markets. The relationship between ENSO and the boom–bust periods of globally commercialized fisheries like anchovy and sardines has been well-documented (Schreiber and Halliday 2013; MacCall 2011; Chavez et al. 2003; Torero et al. 1999; Cushing 1981). However, less is known about how these global events reverberate throughout regional and local economies, communities, and small-scale fisheries in complicated ways (Viatori and Medina 2019; MacCall 2011).

This paper draws on survey data and long-term ethnographic research in Ecuadorian coastal communities to explore how fishers understand ENSO, which has implications for livelihood decisions and resilience. Ecuador recently experienced an unusually long “La Niña” event, which began in 2020 and disappeared in February 2023. At the time of this writing, a new El Niño was developing near the coast of Ecuador and Peru according to scientists and climate prediction centers. Global temperatures were predicted to reach new highs in the second semester of 2023. However, the 2023 global El Niño event turned out to be weaker (in terms of precipitation) and began to decline in March 2024. Although the Pacific Ocean was warmer than normal, the atmosphere did not adjust as expected.1

Throughout history, small-scale fishers and their families in the Pacific Littoral Zone have employed diverse livelihood strategies in response to variability in weather patterns (Riris and Arroyo-Kalin 2019; Staller 2013; Vina 2022). For example, archaeological research suggests that an increase in El Niño events between 2400 and 1450 B.C. required the exploitation of “seasonally specific resources” (Staller 2013, p. 102). Occupational pluralism, which expands livelihood options and fosters flexibility, has long been widely documented in the contemporary ethnographic literature on small-scale fisheries around the world (McGoodwin 1990; Pollnac and Poggie 2008; Allison and Ellis 2001; McCay 1978, 2002).

A well-established body of theory has long suggested that multiple indicators contribute to socio-ecological resilience, including livelihood diversification, local ecological knowledge (LEK), robust institutional arrangements, and collective action (Adger 2000; Jacob et al. 2013; Cumming et al. 2005; Berkes et al. 1998, 2003). Empirical research on the relationships between livelihood diversification and resilience have demonstrated considerable variability in the capacity of some households to adapt to environmental change (Coulthard 2008; Finkbeiner 2015; Hanazaki et al. 2013; Pellowe and Leslie 2017). For example, one study from India found that fishers who have become locked into an overly specialized fishery (not always the poorest of poor) struggle to adapt (Coulthard 2008). Another study found that women disproportionately bear the cost associated with adaptation, suggesting that adaptive strategies often have differential effects associated with structural inequities, which provides critical insights into resilience and why some people thrive while others continue to struggle (Coulthard and Britton 2015). As the anticipated effects of climate change predict that ENSO events are likely to intensify in the Pacific Littoral Zone, it is necessary to understand environmental factors and socio-economic conditions that shape the resilience and adaptive capacity of individuals and communities.

2. Methods

2.1. Survey via Face-to-Face Interviews

To understand how small-scale fishers and coastal communities respond in complicated ways to global events like ENSO, we draw on data gathered for a national survey on socio-economic indicators in small-scale coastal fisheries in Ecuador. The survey was led by the Instituto Público de Investigación de Acuicultura y Pesca (Gaibor) between June 2018 and March 2021. During the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, data collection was suspended. This survey gathered information from small-scale fishers on economic, socio-environmental, and institutional aspects of fisheries. In addition to baseline demographic data, the survey elicited information about livelihood strategies, fishing gear, species harvested, attitudes about fisheries management and policy, participation in civil society, socio-economic wellbeing, material living conditions, job satisfaction, and perceptions of environmental change (including ENSO and climate change).

The scope of this study targeted communities that predominantly depend on mangrove-associated fisheries, though other fisheries are represented to a smaller degree, including high seas fisheries. The survey was conducted as a face-to-face interview in thirty coastal communities within four coastal provinces (Figure 1).2 Using an intercept approach, participants were recruited in landings areas and represent the diversity of small-scale fishers and gear types in each of the 30 communities, including the commercially valuable fisheries for mangrove cockles and crabs. All the fishers interviewed were either part of fisher’s associations and cooperatives or independent fishers. Participation in each interview was voluntary and took 30–60 min, depending on how willing each respondent was to answer and elaborate on all the questions. A team of researchers coded the semi-structured and open-ended responses so that responses could be quantified.

2.2. Role of Ethnographic Research in the Survey

The design of the survey, all analyses, and questions guiding our exploration of the data were informed by long-term ethnographic research (Beitl and Vina) and over 25 years of experience in fisheries monitoring (Gaibor). In our mixed-method approach, the survey was developed by Gaibor in consultation with Pollnac, who implemented similar surveys on fisheries in other locations around the world, and Beitl, who conducted long-term ethnographic research in two of the four provinces (Esmeraldas and El Oro). To deepen our understanding of the implications of ENSO for livelihood adaptations, we further draw on Vina’s ethnographic interviews from January to February 2022 in the coastal towns of Puerto Lopez and Machalilla in Manabi Province. This work involved asking open-ended questions to explore knowledge about ENSO and adaptive strategies. A total of 35 short interviews were carried out using a snowball sample (Puerto Lopez n = 20, Machalilla n = 15). Open-ended questions focused on livelihood impacts and decision making during El Niño and La Niña events. This also included probing questions to elicit further description about the impacts of El Niño and La Niña when deemed necessary. The 35 follow-up interviews were influenced by the survey design and questions, especially those questions regarding livelihood strategies during El Niño and La Niña. Thus, the chronology of our mixed-method approach was as follows: ethnographic research in Esmeraldas and El Oro was conducted first; then, the surveys were conducted; finally, the 35 interviews in Machalilla in Manabi Province were conducted.

3. Results

3.1. Survey Results

The final sample of survey respondents includes a total of 807 fishers representing six fishery types in 30 fishing communities in four provinces along the Pacific Coast of Ecuador (Figure 1,

Table 1. Percent fishery type (rows) by Province (Columns).

	El Oro	Guayas	Esmeraldas	Manabí	Total %	N
Shrimp Fishery	0.0	0.0	9.3	0.000	1.983	16
Crab Fishery	12.	50.7	0.0	6.2	17.9	145
Cockles Fishery	50.0	18.0	28.6	0.6	27.8	225
Artisanal Fishery	25.5	4.5	42.1	52.8	29.2	236
High Seas and Industrial Fisheries	2.5	0.0	11.6	21.3	7.5	61
Mixed Fisheries	9.7	26.6	8.1	18.8	15.3	124
Total/%	100	100	100	100	100
N	278	199	171	159		807

Chi-Square 504.964, df = 15, p < 0.001, contingency coefficient = 0.620.

). Ecuador’s coastline is 670 km long and ~150 km wide, from the Mataje River in the north to the Zarumilla River in the south (Varela and Ron 2018) and includes a variety of environments that support diverse fisheries. The survey sample includes representation from most of the fishing types found in various areas along Ecuador’s coastline. Over half of the respondents identify with the commercially valuable fisheries for mangrove cockles (Anadara tuberculosa and A. similis) and crabs (Ucides occidentalis and Cardisoma crassum), which are harvested by hand around the roots of mangrove trees during low tide periods. Other respondents employ a variety of artisanal fishing methods to harvest different species found within and adjacent to mangrove wetlands. Only 61 respondents report participating in high seas and/or industrial fisheries.

The fishery for mangrove cockles is economically important throughout the coast, but the majority of harvesters can be found in the provinces of El Oro and Esmeraldas (Table 1). Our survey found that mangrove cockles are harvested in the communities of San Lorenzo, Muisne and Bunche (Esmeraldas Province), Salinas (Manabí Province), Puerto El Morro and Campo Alegre (Guayas Province), and Puerto Bolívar, Puerto Jeli, Las Huacas, Costa Rica, and Hualtaco (El Oro Province). The species is vulnerable to overharvesting due to its slow biological growth rate (Lucero et al. 2012) and the fact that its harvest requires low levels of investment by fishers (Orquera 1999). This resource is further limited by environmental conditions, temperature, salinity, population density, quantity and availability of food, and high predatory pressure, mainly of anthropic origin produced by the increase in fishing effort (Mora et al. 2011).

The fishery for mangrove crab is predominantly concentrated in Guayas Province, although the red crab is also harvested in El Oro to a lesser degree, as indicated by respondents (Table 1). The management of this fishery is organized around two closed seasons: one in August when the crabs are molting and one in February when the crabs are spawning. These institutional aspects present opportunities for livelihood diversification since many crab harvesters engage in other artisanal fisheries and alternate economic activities during fishery closure periods. In contrast to the other three provinces, the communities in Manabí rely more heavily on artisanal fisheries. As indicated in Table 1, there are statistically significant different percentages of fishery types across the four provinces, and the differences are strong as indicated by the high contingency coefficient level.3

Table 2. Percent of respondents who expressed familiarity with El Niño and La Niña by province and by fishery type.

	Familiar with El Niño		Familiar with La Niña
By province	% Yes	n	% Yes	n
El Oro	93.5	277	42.5	275
Guayas	87.9	198	41.8	194
Esmeraldas	88.7	203	43.1	197
Manabi	81.4	129	36.1	122
Total	89.0	807	41.5	788
By fishery type
Shrimp Fishery	87.5	16	37.5	16
Crab Fishery	87.5	144	38.6	140
Cockles Fishery	91.1	225	40.1	222
Artisanal Fishery	89.8	235	43.9	228
High Seas and Industrial Fisheries	90.2	61	41.7	60
Mixed Fisheries	84.7	124	42.5	120
Total	88.9	805	41.3	786

summarizes the results of fishers’ perceptions and whether they are familiar with El Niño and La Niña events. First, fishers were asked if they had ever heard of an El Niño event to elicit a dichotomous yes/no response. As a follow up, they were asked an open-ended question about whether they knew the impact of El Niño on fisheries resources. Respondents were also asked if they had ever heard of La Niña and whether they were familiar with its effects on fisheries.

Responses to this question were analyzed by location and fishery type (Table 2). Only 42 percent reported knowledge of La Niña versus 89 percent for El Niño. Knowledge of El Niño differed significantly across location with a greater percent of knowledge in El Oro Province, but the relationship is rather weak (C (contingency coefficient) = 0.111). Knowledge of La Niña varied little across locations. There was little overall variation across fishery type with regard to knowledge of the existence of both El Niño and La Niña (Chi Square probability greater than 0.050).

Gender, age, and education were also examined in terms of knowledge of the events. Regarding gender, differences were not statistically significant as 89 percent of males versus 88 percent of females knew about El Niño (Chi Square = 0.181, df = 2, p > 0.050 Phi = 0.015) and 42 percent of males versus 41 percent of females knew about La Niña (Chi Square = 0.042, df = 2, p > 0.050 Phi = 0.01). This, we have previously mentioned, is due to a large presence of women in the capture of mangrove cockles, both in San Lorenzo and Bunche, in the province of Esmeraldas, as well as the presence of women in the capture of this resource in certain areas of the province of El Oro.

Turning to age, those who knew of El Niño tended to be older than those who did not (mean age 40.9 versus 36.4 years, respectively (t = 2.902, df = 798, p < 0.010). Years of education had no significant impact on knowledge of El Niño—those who did not know manifested a mean of 5.4 years versus 5.8 years among those who knew about El Niño (t = 0.947, df = 655, p > 0.050). With regard to La Niña, those who knew about La Niña tended to be older than those who did not (mean age 42.8 versus 39.1 years, t = 3.729, df = 799, p < 0.001), and education had no impact—those who did not know and those who did know La Niña manifested a mean of 5.8 years of education.

Fishers were asked two closed ended questions concerning the weather effects of El Niño and La Niña. Fishers, categorized by fishery type, were asked if the effects of each of the two separate categories (El Niño and La Niña) include much rain, lack of rain, inundations, drought, very hot, or very cold weather. Response categories were yes, no, or do not know. Fishers who responded “do not know” were treated as missing data. The resulting 12 analyses were analyzed using the Chi-Square test. The contingency coefficient is used as an indicator of effect size. If more than one-fifth of the cells in any of the 12 analyses have a frequency of less than five, the probability calculated for that table is treated as unreliable. The shrimp fishery was not included in this analysis because the sample size was too small (N = 16), and the High Seas and Industrial Fisheries category was not used due to a problem with the data with regard to the question. The results are presented in

Table 3. Percent distribution perceived El Niño weather by fishery.

	Crab Fishery	Cockles Fishery	Artisanal Fishery	Mixed Fisheries	Total	N	Chi Square	df	p	C	Valid Cases
Much Rain	88.136	90.503	96.257	89.247	91.681	529	8.126	3	<0.050	0.118	577
Lack Rain	4.673	31.746	2.222	2.410	13.619	70	83.841	3	<0.001	0.374	514
Inundation	80.000	56.219	85.393	89.362	75.000	441	59.941	3	<0.001	0.304	588
Drought *	0.000	1.579	2.941	1.205	1.550	8	3.474	3	<0.001 *	0.112	516
Very Hot	21.622	21.212	28.758	34.118	25.411	139	6.987	3	>0.050	0.112	547
Very Cold	8.182	7.937	11.429	14.286	9.943	52	3.345	3	>0.050	0.080	523

* More than one-fifth of the fitted cells in the base analysis are sparse. Significance tests computed on this variable are suspect. df = degrees of freedom, p = probability, C = contingency coefficient.

and

Table 4. Percent distribution perceived La Niña weather by fishery.

	Crab Fishery	Cockles Fishery	Artisanal Fishery	Mixed Fisheries	Total	N	Chi Square	df	p	C	Valid Cases
Much Rain	25.714	28.205	23.077	37.500	27.848	44	2.155	3	>0.050	0.116	158
Lack Rain	28.125	18.750	48.077	18.750	28.889	52	14.132	3	<0.010	0.270	180
Inundation	14.286	14.063	15.385	31.250	17.486	32	5.129	3	>0.050	0.165	183
Drought	78.125	38.806	78.571	53.125	59.893	112	25.574	3	<0.001	0.347	187
Very Hot	29.412	23.810	38.000	31.250	30.168	132	2.692	3	>0.050	0.122	179
Very Cold	12.121	34.328	32.075	28.125	28.649	53	5.776	3	>0.050	0.174	185

df = degrees of freedom, p = probability, C = contingency coefficient.

.

Livelihood diversification may be related to social resilience, which is important for understanding how coastal communities may adapt to the harsher weather conditions predicted by many current climate models. Hence, understanding the distribution of livelihood diversification and geographical location in our sample may be an initial step in developing plans to increase resilience in complex coastal areas. Our measure of livelihood diversification is a simple dichotomy—only one livelihood present, versus more than one livelihood. The results of our analysis (

Table 5. Geographic distribution of cockle fishers by number of occupations.

Province	Number of Occupations
	One	2 or More	Total Percent	N
El Oro	66.187	33.813	100	139
Guayas	55.556	44.444	100	36
Esmeraldas	36.735	63.265	100	49
Total	58.036	41.964	100
N	130.00	94.000		224

) indicate a low diversity of 34 percent (cockle fishers with more than one occupation) in El Oro and a high diversity of 63 percent in Esmeraldas. The differences in Table 5 are statistically significant (Chi-Square = 13.012, df = 2, p = 001).

Further, there is a greater percentage of female cockle fishers (52%) in Esmeraldas than the other two provinces in

Table 6. Geographic distribution of cockle fishers by gender.

	Male Percent	Female Percent	Total	N
El Oro	73.377	36.232	61.883	138
Guayas	18.182	11.594	16.143	36
Esmeraldas	8.442	52.174	21.973	49
Total	100	100	100
N	154.000	69.000		223.000

, while El Oro manifests the greatest percentage of males (73%). The differences in percentage of gender across the three provinces is statistically significant (Chi Square = 53.379, df = 2, p < 0.001). In Esmeraldas, cockle harvesting has been traditionally performed by women and children. In El Oro and Guayas, cockle harvesting has been dominated by men until relatively recently (the past 10 years or so).

In our sample, the largest percentage of cockle fishers who depend entirely on cockles for their income are males (64%) in contrast to only 45% of female cockle fishers (

Table 7. Percent distribution of diversity (number of occupations) by gender.

	Males	Females	Total	N
One occupation	64.286	44.928	58.296	130
More than one occupation	35.714	55.072	41.704	93
Total	100	100	100
N	154	69		223

). Female cockle fishers, however, manifest the highest level of occupational diversity (55% have more than one occupation). These differences are statistically significant (Chi Square = 7.345, df = 2, p < 0.01).

Two open-ended questions were used to determine fishers’ beliefs concerning the impacts of El Niño and La Niña on fishery resources: (1) Si conoce, cuál es el impacto que tiene El Niño sobre los recursos pesqueros? Do you know the impact El Niño has on fisheries resources and (2) Si conoce, cuál es el impacto que tiene “La Niña” sobre los recursos pesqueros? Do you know the impact La Niña has on fisheries resources? Respondents were allowed to respond with as many effects that they perceived. The El Niño question produced 73 distinct responses and the La Niña question produced 41. Individual respondents provided up to three responses to the El Niño question and four responses for the La Niña question.

Responses are organized into groupings representing four important resource categories: cockles, crabs, shrimp, and fish (

Table 8. Fishers’ Perceptions of the impacts of El Niño and La Niña on fisheries.

	Frequency	Negative	Positive	Neutral
Impacts of El Niño on Cockle Fisheries
“Disminuye el número de conchas (Cockles population decreases)	23	X
“Es malo para las conchas (Bad for the cockles)	13	X
“La concha se hunde (Cockles dig deeper)	14	X
“ Mucho aguaje no deja capturar conchas (The big tides hinder cockles catching)	9	X
“Escasez de concha (Cockle scarcity)	5	X
“La concha se entierra porque se pone caliente el agua (Cockles dig deeper because the water gets warmer)	4	X
“El agua dulce hace morir la concha (Fresh water kills cockles)	1	X
“Es difícil capturar conchas por la inundación (The flood hinders cockles catching)	1	X
“Las conchas se murieron por la inundación en los árboles (Cockles died because all trees were flooded)	1	X
“No se halla concha macho (Male cockles scarcity)	1	X
“Se mueren las conchas (Cockles die)	1	X
Impacts of La Niña on Cockle Fisheries
“La concha se profundiza (Cockles dig deeper)	3	X
“Con el frio la concha desaparece (Cockles disappear when it is cold)	2	X
“Hay más conchas (There are more cockles)	1	X
Impacts El Niño Crab Fisheries
“Se pierde el cangrejo (Crabs go away)	17	X
“Disminuye el número de cangrejos (Crabs population decreases)	10	X
“Mucho aguaje no deja capturar cangrejos (The big tides hinder crabs catching)	9	X
“El cangrejo muere por la inundación del manglar (Crabs die for the mangrove flood)	5	X
“El cangrejo se altera (Crabs get disturbed)	4	X
“Escases de cangrejo (Crab scarcity)	3	X
“Se mueren los cangrejos (Crabs die)	3	X
“El cangrejo muere mientras se trepa en las raíces (Crabs die while climbing up the roots)	2	X
“El cangrejo se esconde (Crabs hide)	1	X
“Es difícil capturar cangrejos por el lodo (The mud hinders crab catching)	1	X
“Se muere el cangrejo en los muros (Crabs die on the walls)	1	X
“Favorece al cangrejo (It is beneficial for crabs)	1		X
Impacts of La Niña on Crab Fisheries
“El cangrejo se esconde (Crabs dig deeper)	4	X
“No se puede capturar cangrejos porque el lodo se endurece (Crabs cannot be collected because the mud hardens)	3	X
“Se muere el cangrejo por la inundación del manglar (The crab dies from the mangrove flood)	3	X
“El agua dulce mata al cangrejo (Fresh water kills crabs)	2	X
“Los cangrejo no están estables en un solo lugar cuando hace mucho calor (Crabs move around when it is too hot)	2	X
“El cangrejo muere mientras se trepa en las raíces (Crabs die while climbing up the roots)	1	X
“El cangrejo se adapta a otro clima (The crab adapts to another climate)	1	X
“El cangrejo se aleja por el calor (Crabs go away for the heat)	1	X
“El cangrejo se aleja por la sequía (Crabs go away for the drought)	1	X
“El cangrejo se esconde por el calor (Crabs dig deeper for the heat)	1	X
“El cangrejo se esconde por la sequía (Crabs dig deeper for the drought)	1	X
“El cangrejo se muere (Crabs die)	1	X
Impacts El Niño on shrimp
“Empuja a los camarones fuera del río (It pushes shrimps out of the river)	27	X
“Es bueno para el camarón (It is good for the shrimps)	22		X
“Incrementa el número de camarones (Shrimp population increases)	20		X
“Es malo para los peces que haya muchos camarones (Shrimp population increase is bad for fish)	1		X
“Hay mucho camarón (Shrimp population increases)	1		X
Impacts El Niño on fish
“Abundancia de pesca (Fish abundance)	30			X
“Empuja a los peces fuera del río (It pushes fishes out of the river)	27	X
“El pescado se va (Fishes go away)	25	X
“Las especies se van (Species go away)	16	X
“Los peces se van a la altura (Fishes are carried to the high sea)	13	X
“Escases de pescado (Fish scarcity)	5	X
“La pesca se esconde (The fish hide)	1	X
“La presencia de peces inusuales (Unusual fish presence)	1	X
“Menos recursos pesqueros (Fishing resources decrease)	11	X
“Se mueren los peces (Fish die)	9	X
“No se puede pescar porque el mar se pone bravo (Sea roughness hinders fishing)	3	X
“Se pierde la albacora (Albacora fish go away from the coast)	2	X
“Los pescados se maltratan con el evento del niño (El Niño phenomenon damage the fish)	1	X
“Es bueno porque vienen más peces con el río (More fish come by the river)	1		X
“La lluvia hace bien a la pesca (Rain is good for fishing)	1		X
Impacts LaNiña on Fish
“Los peces se alejan (Fishes go away)	10	X
“El pescado se desaparece (Fishes disapear)	6	X
“Se calienta el agua y se asfixian los peces (Fish choke for the warm waters)	4	X
“La pesca no se ve afectada por las inundaciones (Fishing is not affected by floods)	1	X
“Los peces mueren por el agua fría (Fish die from cold water)	1	X
“Los peces no se reproducen con la sequía (Fish are not reproducing for the drought)	1	X
“No hay peces porque se secan los ríos (There are no fish because rivers dry up)	1	X
“El calor hace bien a la pesca (The heat is good for fishing)	2		X
“Hay más peces (There are more fish)	2		X

). Each effect was categorized as “positive” or “negative”. The number of respondents providing each “effect” is presented following the “effect”. A summary of response types is presented in

Table 9. Number of impacts of El Niño and La Niña mentioned by fishery type.

	Know El Niño			Know La Niña
	Negative	Positive	Neutral	Negative	Positive
Cockles Fishery	11			3
Crab Fishery	11	1		12
Shrimp Fishery	1	4
Fish Fishery	12	2	1	7	2
General Impacts	12	3		12
Total Do Not Know	42			28

.

It is important to note that these results reflect the interviewee’s beliefs. They are not evaluated in terms of beliefs of “scientists”, e.g., fishery scientists, ecologists, meteorologists, etc.

3.2. Ethnographic Interviews

Ethnographic interviews with high seas fishers in Machalilla and Puerto Lopez also indicate that fishers are more aware of changes caused by El Niño than La Niña, which fishers described as subtle and unnoticeable, except when waters become unusually cold. Thirty of the thirty-five interviewees (86%) knew about El Niño, while nineteen out of thirty-five interviewees (54%) knew about La Niña. Even for fishers who knew about both phenomena, the list of responses about “what El Niño is” almost doubled the responses for La Niña.

During times of heavy rain and floods caused by El Niño’s onslaught, some livelihood alternatives included migrating to urban areas such as Guayaquil, Manta, and as far as Quito, working in construction, seeking financial help from a family member, and selling fish, shrimp, and or produce with friends or family (weather permitting).

During the past two mega El Niños (1982 and 1998), fishers mentioned the difficulties involved in fishing due to the heavy rains and floods. Yet, some fishers continued fishing, waiting for breaks in the rain and rough conditions to cast fishnets, use hand lines, or set smaller-sized gillnets. During a weak El Niño, fishing continues as usual, while a moderate or strong El Niño could be enough to instigate some fishers to switch fishing practices. Interestingly, La Niña was never discussed in terms of intensity, nor were terms like weak, moderate, or strong used to describe the phenomenon:

“When we had the strong El Niño I did not fish with a long line, and I changed to fishing with gillnets to catch shrimp. But in the other El Niños that have been weak there has been no shrimp and fishing stays the same. If it is the weak El Niño, I just keep fishing with a long line, I always fish with anything.”—high seas fisher, age 59, from Puerto Lopez.

“El Niño is not always the same, sometimes it comes with force other times you don’t feel it. But my son and I fish for shrimp if it comes strong. You can fish with a long line, but fishing is not so good. We use shorter mesh walls that we modify to not catch so much debris and avoid tangling the net. If you use longer gillnets it will be harder to get it out of the water. We also complement with what we plant.” High seas fisher, age 65 from Machalilla.

For instance, even if fishers decide to continue longlining, they will modify their gear or alter their practice, using smaller or larger hooks, targeting a specific species, changing fishing spots, or using bottom longlines more often than surface longlines to target demersal fish and also avoid debris and garbage floating on the surface, for example.

“It all depends on how strong it is. If it is weak, we fish the same because nothing changes much, but if it is somewhat strong then we do change fishing spots and we use a bottom long line more than a surface one. We go to Salango to fish because between the island and the cliff it is deep and there are rocks where fish hide because the waters get warm, and they stay there.” High seas fisher, age 48, from Puerto Lopez.

“Since there are still fish, we use bottom longlines and do not use a surface longline because there is a lot of trash on the surface and you can’t set the line, you have to set it deeper. Fish look for colder waters, so they go deeper. Fish aren’t dumb, they look for the best conditions to live in.” High seas fisher, age 52, from Machalilla.

While most fishers mentioned that El Niño caused much hardship, a select few view El Niño as a short-term opportunity to profit from the increased numbers of shrimp due to the warmer and brackish waters. In both communities, fishers who know how to fish with longlines and other gear, such as gillnets, mentioned that they switch to gillnets to target shrimp as populations “explode.” In addition, given that there is a strong local demand from restaurants, merchants, and households, catching large quantities of shrimp serves the double purpose of generating profit during times of crises and keeping some shrimp for household consumption.

“Yes, they come and go, sometimes it is strong and sometimes you don’t even know it is here, but when it come with force all the water gets filled with debris, dead animals, and garbage. The water gets warm and fish at high sea leaves, but here near the coast you catch fish and shrimp. Those that know [how to fish] El Niño is a good thing.” High seas fisher, age 60, from Machalilla.

“There are two things I can do, if it is possible, I go shrimp fishing. You can make good money and take plenty of shrimp back home, that way there is always food for the family.” High seas fisher, age 51, from Puerto Lopez.

“I stop using a long line and I fish only with gillnets. There are some fishers that use both gears. During that time there is a lot of shrimp, shrimp explode. I have a brother in La Rinconada (nearby town about 25 km away from Puerto Lopez) and they only fish shrimp and lobster. When there has been El Niño I always go there. Those fishers know all the spots with shrimp and lobster right along the Five Hills, where you cannot see the coast from the highway. They defend their fishing spots, they don’t allow the divers of Salango to fish there, they have patrol brigades made up of fishers, and they have organized well.” High seas fisher, age 63, from Puerto Lopez.

Although we did not explicitly ask about abundant or absent marine species during El Niño or La Niña, some fishers mentioned different fish species present during both El Niño and La Niña when asked if they knew about both phenomena and the impacts on their livelihood practices. For example, fishers stated that when a strong El Niño arrives, many fish leave the area to search for suitable water temperatures. However, some fishers mentioned that certain fish species remain during a strong El Niño. According to fishers, these species can dive deeper in search of cooler waters. Others seem to adapt to the altered conditions, such as certain demersal species that, according to some key informants, have a penchant for eating shrimp such as corvina (Cynoscion spp.), southern rock sea bass (Paralabrax callaensis), sand perch, yellowtail croaker (Umbrina xanti), tilefish, snook (Centropomus spp.), goatfish (Pseudupeneus spp.), mullet (Mugil cephalus), blue bobo (Polydactylus approximans), and Pacific dog snapper (Lutjanus novemfasciatus). Other species that tend to increase during El Niño include Pacific sierra (Scomberomorus sierra) and common dolphinfish. Inversely, fish that leave the area include bonito, Pacific harvest fish (Peprilus medius), Pacific crevalle jack (Caranx caninus), and small pelagic fish such as sardines (Sardinops sagax), jack mackerel (Trachurus symmetricus), and Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus).

“The blue bobo which is not sold can be seen near shore and we can catch them with fishnets, many older fishers still use them, but that blue bobo had not been seen, but El Niño came and there were many. The ñato (unidentified) can be caught with hand line, one time I caught 10 but the waves almost swept me. You can also see a lot of sierra and dog snapper.” High seas fisher, age 60, from Machalilla.

“Only God knows, but in all my years I have seen that during El Niño there is more rock seabass, snook, mullet along the shore, and sand perch. All those fish eat shrimp and during the phenomenon there is too much shrimp. But a lot of fish also leave, you don’t see pacific crevalle jacks, or bonito, or pompano that we catch a lot here with gillnets and long lines.” High seas fisher, age 52, from Machalilla.

Although La Niña is considered subtler, when fishers know it is present, it instigates many fishers with some experience purse seining to look for temporary work on family-owned purse seiners in Machalilla to capitalize on the increase in pelagic fish such as sardines and mackerel. Fishers monitor the activity and catch rate of both company and family-owned purse seiners, and when catches increase, and La Niña is suspected to be present, these men try to find an empty slot on these boats. As a result, the increase in pelagic fish generates considerable short-term profits ranging from 500 to 1,000 USD in 22 days of fishing. Obtaining temporary work onboard family-owned purse seiners is a relatively easy endeavor that requires less paperwork and permits than company-owned boats. In Machalilla, there is a sizeable family-owned purse seining fleet. These purse seine boats sell their catch to merchants that operate at different scales and a Chinese-owned fish packaging company. Fishers in Puerto Lopez can also seek work aboard purse seiners in nearby Salango and Machalilla (a twenty-minute bus ride to both communities) and as far as Chanduy and Posorja if needed.

“I’ll go fishing on a purse seiner because there is better fishing; here in Machalilla you can find an open slot quickly because there is always someone missing. But I only go for a short time, a couple of months or a little more.” High seas fisher, age 40, from Machalilla.

Because there are no requirements, and you only have to know someone to get a chance. In the company boats you cannot do that because you need all the permits.” High seas fisher, age 40, from Puerto Lopez.

“Six years ago, they [forecasts] said that a strong El Niño was coming, and it was the opposite, the waters got cold, and it was very sunny, it was like summer, but with cold waters. I went fishing onboard purse seiners in Salango and fishing was great, I made good money aboard a 55-ton boat (storage capacity).” High seas fisher, age 48, from Puerto Lopez.

Some fishers reported oscillating between land and sea, taking advantage of the ecological diversity in relatively small spaces and short distances. A few older fishers (55–70 years of age) stated that they continued, together with family, planting short-cycle crops and raising animals in plots of land closer to the forest and hills. During the intense rains generated by El Niño, some fisher farmers cultivate on the hillsides to avoid flooding of their crops. Strategies involving a combination of agriculture, horticulture, hunting, and fishing were widespread four to five decades ago. However, in the last ten to fifteen years, there has been a drastic reduction in agricultural practices, hunting, and animal husbandry among the younger generation, who have all but abandoned these subsistence practices for other work opportunities.

“We work the land between all of us my two sons, their wives my two daughters, their husbands, their children, and that’s how we go. We plant corn, watermelon, papaya, manioc, plantain, beans, and we also raise chickens. We have a simple house, and we spend many days there. What is missing here is more rain, sometimes it doesn’t rain, and it becomes harder, but when it rains everything grows here. During an El Niño, 1982 I think, we survived with shrimp, any fish I could catch along the shore, and agriculture. After El Niño passes it is good to plant, but almost no one plants anymore in all this area.” High seas fisher, age 65, from Machalilla.

“I’ve always been a farmer and a fisher, and I raise my pigs, chicken, and ducks. When the rains come, we plant more because after the rains the harvest is good. But if there are heavy rains you must plant on the hillsides to avoid the floods drowning the plants. If there is a lot of rain I do not fish and I survive with this, I’ve done it before. My family owns some plots of land in the mountain, and we are planting and harvesting year-round.” High seas fisher, 62, from Machalilla.

“When El Niño comes, we plant short cycle crops such as corn, plantain, and manioc. We also have a lot of fruits but there are people that have forgotten how to work the land and that is bad, because If El Niño comes, they won’t have anything to eat.” High seas fisher, age 54, from Puerto Lopez.

It is evident that older fishers who are or have been farmers recognize the importance of maintaining diverse livelihood options in times of climatic upheaval. Socio-ecological memories of past El Niño events touch on challenging times, mitigated using various small-scale fishing practices (fish nets, hand lines) and social networks. In this area, not only the proximity to diverse ecosystems but also the proximity to fishing sectors through social networks and experience moving between fishing practices provide a buffer to the volatility and uncertainty inherent in living between El Niño and La Niña. Perhaps in the not so distant past, moving between fishing and cultivation was a common strategy; however, with the drastic decline in agriculture and horticulture, the option of longlining and gillnetting together with purse seining offers younger fishers options to deal with La Niña.

During discussions about socio-ecological changes with ethnographic informants in Puerto Lopez and Machalilla, interviewees frequently mentioned the significant impact of the intense El Niño events in 1982 and 1998. They used words like “incredible,” “impressive,” and “scary” to describe the volatile changes generated by these two events. For example, when El Niño affected coastal communities in 1982-83, many people depended on kin and non-kin bonds to survive the initial storms and the following months of food scarcity. Households temporarily shared segments of their plots of land in the nearby hills with family members and extended kin to help them recover from the adverse impacts of floods and strong swells. Socio-ecological memories of past El Niño events touch on difficult times that were mitigated using artisanal fishing practices. The issue of food security, especially in times of crisis, came up in the interviews when both events were discussed. Fishers recalled that during the strong El Niño events, products such as rice stopped arriving, trips to the mountains to collect forest fruits were difficult, and industrial purse seine fishing was shut down due to the warming of the waters and dispersal of pelagic fish to other areas.

4. Discussion

4.1. Perception of Effects of ENSO and La Niña

In line with the archeological literature (Riris and Arroyo-Kalin 2019; Staller 2013), our findings suggest that fishers generally understand the impacts of El Niño and have adapted their livelihoods to the environmental variability. However, our survey suggests that fishers in Ecuador are less knowledgeable about La Niña than about El Niño. Moreover, our survey results indicate that fishers’ responses may not always align with scientific understanding. For example, when asked to comment on how La Niña impacts fisheries, 12 fishers mention the words “heat” and “flooding” associated with La Niña’s impacts on crab fisheries (n = 6) and artisanal fisheries (n = 6) (Table 8), when in reality, these two issues are related to El Niño (Cornejo 2007; Jiménez 2008; Cahuin et al. 2013; Maldonado et al. 2021).

Despite the fact that scientific knowledge about ENSO has increased, and consequently the ability to forecast its occurrence (currently, all research centers and international agencies are forecasting the presence of El Niño for the second semester of 2023), scientists have not been completely successful in translating this scientific knowledge into policy. Part of the challenge may be a scale mismatch between global models and local events, which has implications for adaptive capacity and resilience (Adamson 2022). Therefore, it is not surprising that fishers’ understanding of ENSO is quite variable. Our findings suggest that scientific knowledge should be translatable, understandable, and applicable; it should provide climate information specifically designed for each sector of the economy. In particular, fishers (the true end users) are most impacted by the presence of these events. However, the existing technical publications and reports have very limited use, usually not reaching end-user sectors of the different fishing communities.

On the other hand, the results of this research show that many fishers have great knowledge about El Niño. El Niño, according to the fishermen, causes severe impacts not only on the habitat and ecosystem where they work, but also on the fishing resources they catch, causing negative impacts on their economies and on the wellbeing of their families and the community where they live. They have first-hand experience with the social impacts, which has sometimes been underestimated, including how to use forecasts to provide mitigation tools to reduce negative impacts. Our survey and ethnographic work further suggest that older informants were more knowledgeable. Elders can remember both the 1982 and 1998 mega El Niño events, and some also have experience with the events of 1972–1973 and the late 1950s (1957–1958). The year 1975 was cited in ethnographic interviews as a strong El Niña year with a prolonged drought. More recently, in the last decade or two, at least in the Manabi area, there have been several punctuated droughts, so even the younger generations have experienced both extremes to a certain degree.

4.2. Implications of ENSO on Livelihood Diversification, Adaptive Capacity and Resilience

Despite the adverse impacts of ENSO on many fisheries, for some fishers who fish with multiple gear types (i.e., long line and gill nets), El Niño opens a window of opportunity to catch the plentiful white-leg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei—also known as king prawn) and pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus brevirostris) that thrive in El Niño’s warmer waters. Older informants in Puerto Lopez and Machalilla often narrated stories about fishers who could deal with the unpredictable marine conditions caused by El Niño to generate income and, more importantly, share the catch of bountiful crustaceans during times of crisis. Indeed, these same informants stressed that sharing the daily catch and foodstuffs, even if not substantial, instilled a sense of normalcy during those challenging times.

In contrast, for cockle fishers, El Niño brings high levels of uncertainty, especially in places like San Lorenzo where there are few economic alternatives. Interviews and informal conversations with concheros in San Lorenzo indicated that El Niño not only affects mangrove cockles, but also other fish species, since the heavy and prolonged rains are accompanied by strong winds (Ventarrones) that impact not only fishery resources, but also the ecosystem in general. Extreme events such as El Niño 1982–83 and 1997–98 were disastrous for mangrove cockle and other estuarine species due to high levels of fresh water associated with massive die-offs. Due to the constant rainrrl during El Niño, salinity levels drop, causing mangrove cockles to die. Heavy rains also bring large masses of debris floating downriver, which affects other fishing activities near estuaries or inlets.

After El Niño passes, it takes a while for the mangrove cockles to recover, so cockle collectors cannot immediately return to their usual collecting routines. To survive during this downtime, many cockle collectors borrow money, usually from a moneylender and, in some cases, from family members. Then, when the El Niño event ends, they return to their activity and begin to repay the loan with high interest rates (ca. 20%). In the province of Esmeraldas, mangrove cockles are traditionally captured by women and family groups. However, in recent years, more men have been entering this fishery (Ocampo-Thomason 2006; Orcés 1999). There is a large group of women collectors of mangrove cockles in the province of Esmeraldas who, faced with this situation, are forced to move to their son’s or daughter’s house while El Niño lasts. At the household level, there are few subsistence alternatives since many families of shell collectors only dedicate themselves to this activity; that is, the father, mother, and children go out daily to collect cockles in the mangroves, but when climatic events such as El Niño occur, if they cannot go out to collect these species, they will go hungry. Additionally, there is no economic support from the government. Therefore, during this period of time, many cockle harvesters borrow money from intermediaries and moneylenders to survive. When they return to activity after El Niño has gone, they work to pay off high-interest debts that can have an interest rate as high as 20%.

Knowledge about ENSO goes beyond being able to have a forecast on the occurrence and magnitude for a certain period of time and a region, but also includes information on the impacts on the socio-economic areas of importance, collected through past experiences, that can be used to reduce risk, reducing negative impacts and maximizing positive ones. One limitation of this study is that our insights about livelihood diversification and resilience are predominantly derived from the qualitative and ethnographic components of the research. Future directions of this work should aim to develop a survey to assess the degree to which livelihood diversification, adaptive capacity, and resilience are related and vary across geographical areas. A better understanding of fishers’ knowledge of ENSO and how they adapt may contribute to sustainable fisheries management from Ecuador and the Southeast Pacific region.

5. Conclusions

The results of this study indicate high levels of variability in the way that fishers on the coast understand and respond to the impacts of ENSO. Our results from the survey data further demonstrate that the impacts of ENSO are more salient than the impacts of La Niña. Unless weather events during the La Niña years are extreme, oftentimes they go unnoticed. These findings are further supported by ethnographic research in the coastal towns of Puerto Lopez and Machalilla, which explored how ENSO influenced adaptive strategies. As evidenced by our data, fishers do not all adapt in the same way.

The ethnographic data from Machalilla and Puerto Lopez further corroborate and deepen our understanding of how fishermen adapt to environmental variability through livelihood diversification. These findings are in line with current research on livelihood diversification, as well as archaeological research that shows how fishers along the coast of Ecuador, throughout the millennia, have adapted to these extreme changes associated with ENSO and can be considered to have achieved a degree of resilience to their effects. Therefore, this paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between livelihood diversification and resilience.

Given the variability in perceptions, fishery managers may work to reduce vulnerabilities by providing information and resources for fishing communities that are vulnerable to the impacts of ENSO. Our findings further suggest that projects aimed at improving the wellbeing of these coastal dwellers should be based on co-management approaches where the knowledge held by fishers may be used to inform policy frameworks around disaster response and mitigation in coastal Ecuador and similar contexts around the world.