Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Outbreak Anticipation by a Rapid Synchronous Increase in Rodent Abundance in the Northwestern Argentina Endemic Region: Towards an Early Warning System for Disease Based on Climate and Rodent Surveillance Data
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Rodent Abundance Estimates
2.3. Orán Rodent Sampling
2.4. Yuto Rodent Sampling
2.5. Los Paños Rodent Sampling
2.6. HPS Cases
2.7. Climatic Variables
2.8. Data Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Rodent Sampling
3.2. Human Orthohantavirus Infection
3.3. Orthohantavirus Human Infections and the Lagged Rodent Abundance
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Year | Month | HPS Cases | Orán Rainfall | Orán Trap Success | Orán Species Richness | Yuto Trap Success | Yuto Species Richness | Paños Hunted Rodents | Paños Species Richness |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 1 | 0 | 103.5 | 26.1 | 3 | ||||
2022 | 2 | 2 | 118.1 | 7.5 | 5 | ||||
2022 | 3 | 1 | 74.0 | 11.4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | ||
2022 | 4 | 4 | 91.7 | 33.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
2022 | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 2 | ||||
2022 | 6 | 5 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
2022 | 7 | 2 | 4.0 | 4 | 3 | ||||
2022 | 8 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||
2022 | 9 | 2 | 14.1 | 5 | 3 | ||||
2022 | 10 | 7 | 10.4 | 2.69 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2022 | 11 | 7 | 6.3 | 1.01 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||
2022 | 12 | 8 | 63.8 | 0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||
2023 | 1 | 0 | 117.5 | 0 | 0 | ||||
2023 | 2 | 2 | 67.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
2023 | 3 | 1 | 172.5 | 2.26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||
2023 | 4 | 1 | 144.5 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 3 | ||
2023 | 5 | 1 | 7.8 | 10.02 | 2 | 3 | 2 | ||
2023 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7.75 | 3 | 2 | 3 | ||
2023 | 7 | 2 | 0.1 | 32.3 | 8 | 9 | 3 | ||
2023 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 35.3 | 6 | 12.75 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
2023 | 9 | 4 | 1.7 | 8 | 1 | ||||
2023 | 10 | 11 | 12.8 | 2.25 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
2023 | 11 | 13 | 80.7 | 14.4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | ||
2023 | 12 | 1 | 173.6 | 1.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Models | Model Selection | AICc | Ljung–Box Test | R2adj | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
HPS~Lagged Rainfall | Rainfall 8 months before, AR2 | 47.4 | Q* = 1.29, p-value = 0.73 | 0.69 | >0.01 |
Rainfall 8 months before, MA2 | 48.1 | Q* = 4.12, p-value = 0.24 | 0.71 | >0.01 | |
Rainfall 7 months before | 49.2 | Q* = 4.14, p-value = 0.24 | 0.34 | 0.01 | |
Rainfall 8 months before | 49.6 | Q* = 5.47, p-value = 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.01 | |
Rainfall 8 months before, MA1 | 50.1 | Q* = 1.79, p-value = 0.52 | 0.59 | >0.01 | |
HPS~Lagged Orán Rodent Abundance | Trap-success 3 months before | 47.5 | Q* = 1.42, p-value = 0.69 | 0.41 | >0.01 |
Trap-success 4 months before, MA1 | 48.6 | Q* = 2.76, p-value = 0.43 | 0.58 | >0.01 | |
Trap-success 3 months before, MA1 | 50.9 | Q* = 1.48, p-value = 0.68 | 0.42 | 0.01 | |
Trap-success 4 months before | 50.9 | Q* = 3.13, p-value = 0.37 | 0.26 | 0.02 | |
Trap-success 3 months before, AR1 | 51 | Q* = 1.81, p-value = 0.61 | 0.41 | >0.01 | |
HPS~Lagged Yuto Rodent Abundance | Trap-success 3 months before | 48.6 | Q* = 0.72, p-value = 0.86 | 0.36 | >0.01 |
Trap-success 4 months before, MA1 | 51.4 | Q* = 0.95, p-value = 0.81 | 0.40 | >0.01 | |
Trap-success 3 months before, AR1 | 51.6 | Q* = 0.99, p-value = 0.80 | 0.39 | >0.01 | |
Trap-success 2 months before | 52.1 | Q* = 3.01, p-value = 0.38 | 0.16 | 0.06 | |
Trap-success 4 months before | 52.8 | Q* = 1.17, p-value = 0.75 | 0.17 | 0.06 | |
HPS~Lagged Paños Rodent Abundance | Hunted rodents 3 months before | 48.8 | Q* = 1.25, p-value = 0.73 | 0.36 | >0.01 |
Hunted rodents 2 months before | 49.2 | Q* = 0.72, p-value = 0.86 | 0.34 | 0.01 | |
Hunted rodents 3 months before, MA1 | 51.9 | Q* = 1.16, p-value = 0.76 | 0.38 | >0.01 | |
Hunted rodents 3 months before, AR1 | 52 | Q* = 1.44, p-value = 0.69 | 0.37 | >0.01 | |
Hunted rodents 2 months before, MA1 | 52.6 | Q* = 0.70, p-value = 0.87 | 0.34 | 0.01 |
Selected Models | Coefficient | Estimated | Standard Error |
---|---|---|---|
HPS~Rainfall 8 month before, AR2 | Rainfall t-8 | 0.89 | 0.13 |
AR1 | −0.03 | 0.25 | |
AR2 | −0.81 | 0.15 | |
HPS~Orán trap-success 3 months before | Rodent Abundance t-3 | 0.74 | 0.20 |
HPS~Yuto trap-success 3 months before | Rodent Abundance t-3 | 0.69 | 0.20 |
HPS~Paños hunted rodents 3 months before | Rodent Abundance t-3 | 0.61 | 0.18 |
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Ferro, I.; Lopez, W.; Cassinelli, F.; Aguirre, S.; Cuyckens, G.A.E.; Kehl, S.; Abán-Moreyra, D.; Castillo, P.; Bellomo, C.; Gil, J.; et al. Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Outbreak Anticipation by a Rapid Synchronous Increase in Rodent Abundance in the Northwestern Argentina Endemic Region: Towards an Early Warning System for Disease Based on Climate and Rodent Surveillance Data. Pathogens 2024, 13, 753. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens13090753
Ferro I, Lopez W, Cassinelli F, Aguirre S, Cuyckens GAE, Kehl S, Abán-Moreyra D, Castillo P, Bellomo C, Gil J, et al. Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Outbreak Anticipation by a Rapid Synchronous Increase in Rodent Abundance in the Northwestern Argentina Endemic Region: Towards an Early Warning System for Disease Based on Climate and Rodent Surveillance Data. Pathogens. 2024; 13(9):753. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens13090753
Chicago/Turabian StyleFerro, Ignacio, Walter Lopez, Flavia Cassinelli, Sara Aguirre, Griet A. E. Cuyckens, Sebastián Kehl, Daira Abán-Moreyra, Paola Castillo, Carla Bellomo, José Gil, and et al. 2024. "Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Outbreak Anticipation by a Rapid Synchronous Increase in Rodent Abundance in the Northwestern Argentina Endemic Region: Towards an Early Warning System for Disease Based on Climate and Rodent Surveillance Data" Pathogens 13, no. 9: 753. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens13090753