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Article

Climate Change-Related Temperature Impact on Human Health Risks of Vibrio Species in Bathing and Surface Water

by
Franciska M. Schets
*,
Irene E. Pol-Hofstad
,
Harold H. J. L. van den Berg
and
Jack F. Schijven
Centre for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Microorganisms 2025, 13(8), 1893; https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms13081893
Submission received: 1 July 2025 / Revised: 11 August 2025 / Accepted: 12 August 2025 / Published: 14 August 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Microorganisms Associated with Human Health, 2nd Edition)
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Abstract

Vibrio species are part of the indigenous microbial flora in marine, brackish and fresh water in moderate and tropical climates that thrive and multiply in water at elevated water temperatures. The number of human non-cholera Vibrio infections due to exposure to contaminated surface water increases worldwide. To study possible climate change-related changes in Vibrio concentrations, prevalent species, and risks of illness, water samples from coastal and inland water bodies in the Netherlands were tested in 2019–2021. Data were combined with data from previous studies in 2009–2012 in order to develop a regression model to predict current and future risks of Vibrio illness. Year-to-year and site-specific variations in Vibrio concentrations and water temperature were observed, but there was no trend of increasing Vibrio concentrations or water temperature over time. In 2019–2021, Vibrio species distribution had not changed since 2009–2012; V. alginolyticus and V. parahaemolyticus were still the dominant species. Statistical analysis demonstrated a significant effect of water temperature on Vibrio concentrations. The model predicted a concentration increase of a factor of 1.5 for each degree Celsius temperature increase. Predicted risks of illness were higher at higher water temperatures, and higher for children than for adults. Based on the most recent climate change scenarios for the Netherlands, the risks of Vibrio illness will increase with factors ranging from 1.6 to 7.6 in 2050 and 2100. These outcomes warrant adequate information about Vibrio risks to water managers, public health workers and the general public.

1. Introduction

Vibrio species are halophilic bacteria that are part of the indigenous aquatic microbial flora in marine, brackish and fresh water in both moderate and tropical climates. Vibrio species have previously been isolated from water, sediment, plankton and shellfish [1,2]. Presence and growth of Vibrio in water depend on various factors, including which Vibrio species, but water temperature and salinity are considered the most important [1,3]. Most Vibrio species thrive and multiply in water at elevated water temperatures, generally above 15 °C [4], with optimum values ranging from 20 to 36 °C [4,5,6]. Vibrio species tolerate a range of salinities, with species-dependent optimum values and preferences. For instance, V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus prefer salinity below 14–20 g/L [4], whereas V. alginolyticus prefers 20–40 g/L [6], and V. cholerae has an optimum growth at 20–25 g/L, but is also able to grow in freshwater, in contrast to other Vibrio species [7,8].
About 12 Vibrio species are associated with human illness, including V. cholerae, V. parahaemolyticus, V. alginolyticus, V. vulnificus, V. damsela, V. hollisae, V. mimicus, V. metshnikovii and V. fluvialis [9]. Human infections with Vibrio may occur after exposure to, or ingestion of, contaminated surface water or bathing water, consumption of raw or undercooked food (particularly shellfish), or during the handling of fish, crustaceans and shellfish, if wounds are present or occur. In general, exposure to contaminated surface water and bathing water may result in ear and wound infections, whereas consumption of contaminated seafood may lead to gastroenteritis, and handling of contaminated seafood can result in wound infections [10,11].
The number of human non-cholera Vibrio infections has increased worldwide [1,2,12,13,14], and since 2006, this increase has also been observed in Europe, where it is particularly related to exposure to surface water [15,16,17,18,19]. Worldwide, the consumption of crustaceans and shellfish has increased, which is accompanied by concerns about Vibrio-related food safety [17,20].
A clear relationship between Vibrio concentrations and water temperature has been demonstrated in various studies, with higher concentrations at higher temperatures [12,21,22,23]. Due to this relationship, it is likely that climate change, which leads to higher average air and water temperatures, causes increased occurrence and concentrations of Vibrio in surface water, which may lead to an increased risk of Vibrio infections [13,14,17,24,25,26]. Increased water temperatures in moderate climate regions, such as Northwest Europe, may also change conditions into those favourable for Vibrio species that were previously rare and of limited public health concern, such as V. vulnificus. This species causes serious infections with a high mortality rate [27] and is particularly of concern in subtropical regions such as South-East USA, while it is currently displaying a geographical shift towards higher latitudes [14].
The presence of Vibrio species in surface water in the Netherlands has been demonstrated in 2009–2012, with V. alginolyticus and V. parahaemolyticus as the most frequently detected species [28,29]. Other recent studies have demonstrated the presence of Vibrio species in surface water in several other European countries, such as Germany [30], Belgium [31], Italy [32], and Serbia [33].
Based on the data from the Dutch studies [28], an empirical equation was derived for predicting Vibrio concentrations as a function of temperature, salinity and acidity of the water. Based on the climate scenarios from the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) [34], elevated Vibrio concentrations were predicted, as well as an increased risk of gastrointestinal illness due to V. parahaemolyticus infections after exposure to marine, brackish and fresh surface water [29].
To study possible climate change-related changes in Vibrio concentrations and prevalent species in the Netherlands, and thus in the associated risks of humans contracting Vibrio infections through exposure to (marine) surface water, additional data were collected during 2019–2021. Data were used to create a prediction model and assess risks of Vibrio infections related to the latest climate change scenarios published by KNMI in 2023 [35].

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Sampling Sites

Water samples were taken at official bathing sites in three waterbodies in the Netherlands: Eastern Scheldt (Oesterdam Westzijde badstrand; latitude 51.4782, longitude 4.2193), Wadden Sea (Harlingenstrand; latitude 53.1669, longitude 5.4160) and North Sea (Bergen aan Zee; latitude 52.6641, longitude 4.6276). Open sea samples were taken further away from the coast, from the Eastern Scheldt (longitude 51.4911, latitude 4.1951), and the Wadden Sea (longitude 53.3461, latitude 5.4421). Open sea samples were not taken from the North Sea for logistical reasons. However, open sea samples were taken from Veerse Meer (Bastiaan de Langeplaat; longitude 51.5254, latitude 3.7145), which is very close to one of the official bathing sites in this waterbody (De Piet badstrand; latitude 51.5301, longitude 3.7268), and samples thus represent both open water and bathing water.

2.2. Sampling

Samples (1 litre volumes) were taken according to ISO 19458:2006 [36]. At official bathing sites, water samples were taken at the beach, and open sea water samples were taken from ships. Water temperature, acidity and conductivity were measured on site at the time of sampling. For open sea water samples, measurements of acidity were not performed in 2019, whereas measurements of conductivity were not performed in 2019 and 2020 for logistical reasons. In 2019, samples were taken during May–October, and in 2020 and 2021, samples were taken from May through December. Samples were taken at weekly (July–September), biweekly (May–June, October) or monthly intervals (November–December). All samples were cooled in refrigerators (3–8 °C) immediately after sampling until cooled transport to the laboratory, where they were stored at 3–8 °C until analyses, which started within 24–36 h after sampling.

2.3. Analyses

Samples were analysed according to an in-house procedure that was based on ISO 21872-1:2017 [37]. Briefly: samples were enriched by incubating three or five subsequent volumes or dilutions of the samples in Alkaline Saline Peptone Water (ASPW; according to ISO 21872-1:2017 [37]) for 18 ± 1 h at 36 ± 2 °C. Tested sample volumes were initially 50, 10, 1, 0.1, and 0.01 mL, but were adjusted during the seasons as water temperatures and Vibrio concentrations increased and decreased again. After incubation, enriched cultures were plated onto Thiosulphate Citrate Bile Sucrose Agar (TCBS; Oxoid CM0333b, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands) and incubated for 24 ± 3 h at 36 ± 2 °C.
Per sample, all positive volumes or dilutions that displayed colonies characteristic of Vibrio on TCBS were confirmed by growing pure cultures of a maximum of five green (e.g., V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus) and five yellow (e.g., V. mimicus, V. fluvialis, V. cholerae) colonies on Saline Nutrient Agar (SNA; according to ISO 21872-1:2017 [37]), which was incubated for 24 ± 3 h at 36 ± 2 °C. At least one green and/or yellow colony per positive volume or dilution was isolated for confirmation. Subsequently, the pure cultures were identified by using an API20E identification test strip (bioMerieux Benelux B.V., Amersfoort, The Netherlands, no. 20100) and an oxidase test (BD BBL DrySlide, no. 231746). If isolates were identified as either V. cholerae, V. parahaemolyticus, or V. vulnificus, further confirmation was performed by PCR testing for specific genes; ctxA and toxR for V. cholerae [28], gyrB for V. parahaemolyticus [38], and vvh for V. vulnificus (primers [39], probe in-house).

2.4. Statistical Analyses

Based on the Vibrio concentrations measured in bathing water and at open sea in 2019–2021, and Vibrio concentrations measured in bathing water in previous studies [28,29], a statistical model was developed to predict Vibrio concentrations for site–water type–year combinations.
Firstly, the 2019–2021 data were used to perform maximum likelihood estimations using Mathematica (v. 13.0.1.0, Wolfram Inc., Champaign, IL, USA) in order to obtain the best estimates of the Vibrio concentrations in water. Next, a linear mixed effect analysis was conducted in R (version 4.1.2 (1 November 2021), R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL https://www.R-project.org/, accessed on 18 February 2025) for all log transformed bathing water concentrations from 2009 to 2012 and from 2019 to 2021 combined (Bird Hippy and lmerTest) [40], with temperature as a fixed effect. The combination of site, water type, and year was included as a random effect. Splitting site, water type and year into separate variables would have divided the data into too small sets of data to obtain meaningful effects.
The applied model equation for the prediction of Vibrio concentrations was:
10log(MPN) = a0 + a1 × T + ε0 + ε1
In which MPN is the Vibrio concentration (MPN/L), T the water temperature (°C), a0 and a1 are coefficients for background Vibrio concentrations and effect of temperature, respectively, ε0 is the random effect of the site–water type–year combination, and ε1 is the residual random effect. Coefficients a0, a1, ε0 and ε1 are normally distributed (Table 1).
Equation (1) was used to predict Vibrio concentrations for various water temperature scenarios, including 10 °C, 18 °C, 20 °C, 22 °C and 25 °C. The range of 18–25 °C reflects the water temperature in Dutch coastal waters during the months in which swimming is common. The temperature of 10 °C, which is approximately the annual average, was included as a low temperature at which no growth of Vibrio is expected [4].

2.5. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA)

QMRA was conducted using the estimated total Vibrio concentrations in the mentioned temperature scenarios and for one single swimming event, in order to assess the risk of gastrointestinal illness due to swallowing water contaminated with Vibrio. The dose-response relation for V. parahaemolyticus illness [41,42,43] was used since dose-response relations for other relevant Vibrio species and other transmission routes, such as exposure of skin and ears, are unknown. The gamma-distributed data of the amount of water ingested per swimming event for children (Vchild), women (Vwoman) and men (Vman) obtained by Schets et al. [44] were used (Table 1). The equation for dose (D), number of ingested Vibrio is:
D = C × V
In which C is the Vibrio concentration in water (number per litre), and V is the ingested volume of water (litre) per swimming event for a child, woman or man. Risk of illness (P) was calculated as [41]:
P = 1 − (1 + D/β)α
See Table 1 for values and sources of parameters alpha (α) and beta (β).

2.6. Climate Change Scenarios

In 2023, KNMI published four new climate scenarios for the Netherlands [35], which replaced the 2014 scenarios [34]. These new scenarios consider high and low carbon dioxide emissions in combination with a drier or a wetter climate. The low emission wet (Ln) scenarios predict a mean temperature increase of +1.1 °C in 2050 as well as in 2100, and the low emission dry (Ld) scenarios predict a mean temperature increase of +1.2 °C in both 2050 and 2100. The predicted mean temperature increase is +1.7 °C in 2050 and +4.7 °C in 2100 according to the high emission wet scenario (Hn), and +2.1 °C in 2050 and +5.1 °C in 2100 according to the high emission dry scenario (Hd). Assuming that water temperature rises with air temperature, it can be deduced that, consequently, there will be more days per year on which swimming is possible, as a result of climate change.

3. Results

3.1. Vibrio Concentrations and Water Temperature

Vibrio species were present in 163 of the 180 water samples (91%) examined during the 2019–2021 study (93/97 bathing water (96%), 70/83 open sea (84%)). Seasonality was observed for the Vibrio concentration and water temperature at all sites, with low values in spring, high values in summer and declining values in the late summer and autumn. This holds for both the data from the current study and the historical data from 2009 to 2012 (Figure 1 and Figure 2). At official bathing sites, Vibrio concentrations were generally higher in the Eastern Scheldt and the Wadden Sea than in the North Sea. Concentrations were generally lower at open sea than at bathing sites. At Veerse Meer, concentrations were in the same order of magnitude as those at the official bathing sites in Eastern Scheldt and Wadden Sea (Table 2).
Time series of Vibrio concentrations in both bathing water and open sea showed that there were differences between sites, water types and years, but there were no obvious trends (Figure 1). The time series of water temperatures (Figure 2) and Vibrio concentrations (Figure 1) showed strong similarities and suggested an increase in the Vibrio concentration when the water temperature increased. The statistical analysis confirmed a significant effect of water temperature on the Vibrio concentration, resulting in increased Vibrio concentrations at increased water temperatures. The residual variance ε1 and the variance attributable to the site–water type–year combination ε0 were about equal (Table 1).

3.2. Vibrio Species

In 2019–2021, a total of 1268 isolates were obtained, of which 667 were isolated from the bathing water samples. Of the bathing water isolates, 492 belonged to the Vibrio genus. The most frequently isolated species was V. alginolyticus (77%), followed by V. parahaemolyticus (19%). V. vulnificus, V. fluvialis, V. cholerae non-O1/non-O139, and V. mimicus were isolated occasionally. From the open sea samples, 601 isolates were obtained, of which 353 belonged to the Vibrio genus. The most frequently isolated species was again V. alginolyticus (72%), followed by V. parahaemolyticus (24%). V. vulnificus and V. fluvialis were isolated occasionally. The species distribution varied per site, with V. alginolyticus being the dominant species in the North Sea and the Eastern Scheldt, whereas in the Wadden Sea, the fraction of V. parahaemolyticus was larger, although it was not the dominant species in all the years studied. In Veerse Meer, V. alginolyticus and V. parahaemolyticus were both equally dominant (Table 3). Comparison of the 2019–2021 bathing water isolates with the 2009–2012 bathing water isolates [28,29] showed that the overall species distribution had not changed, although the fraction of V. cholerae non-O1/non-O139 had slightly decreased. Other minor differences reflect year-to-year variation.

3.3. Vibrio Concentrations and Risk of Illness in Different Scenarios

Using Equation (1) to predict the Vibrio concentration in water of 10 °C, 18 °C, 20 °C, 22 °C and 25 °C for a random site–water type–year combination, showed that Vibrio concentrations increased with a factor 100.017, which equals a factor 1.5, for each degree Celcius temperature increase (Figure 3).

3.3.1. Water Temperature Scenarios

Risks of illness resulting from water ingestion while swimming in surface water contaminated with Vibrio were estimated using the parameters shown in Table 1, and the predicted Vibrio concentrations, which were calculated with Equation (1) and shown in Table 4. The 5–95 percentile values in this table reflect the range of predicted concentrations. Table 5 and Figure 4 show the risk of illness for children, women and men per single swimming event in different water temperature scenarios. The increased risk of increasing water temperature is clearly visible. In agreement with the level of exposure (i.e., the amount of water ingested), the risks are highest for children, followed by men and women. At a water temperature of 10 °C the 95-percentile values of the risks range from 5.1 × 10−5 to 1.1 × 10−4, at 18 °C, they range from 1.3 × 10−3 to 2.9 × 10−3, and at 25 °C from 2.5 × 10−2 to 5.0 × 10−2, showing an increased risk at higher water temperatures.

3.3.2. Climate Change Scenarios

Based on the assumption that water temperature rises with air temperature, and the predicted increase in Vibrio concentrations with a factor of 1.5 for each degree Celsius temperature increase, the associated risk of illness would increase with a maximum factor of 1.5 per degree Celsius temperature as long as the risk is less than about 10%. At higher risks, the temperature effect is less because the dose response curve asymptotically approaches 1, hence the designation of “maximum” increase of the risk with temperature. For the latest climate scenarios for The Netherlands [33] the risks would increase with a maximum factor of 1.6 (Ln, 2050, 2100), 1.8 (Ld, 2050, 2100), 2.6 (Hn, 2050), 3.2 (Hd, 2050), 7.0 (Hn, 2100), and 7.6 (Hd, 2100).

4. Discussion

Vibrio concentrations in the studied bathing waters and the connected open sea varied from year to year and per site. There was no trend of increasing concentrations over time from 2009 to 2021. Measured water temperatures did not show an increasing trend either; however, the considered time frame (2009–2021) was probably too short to be able to detect such an increase. Other reports that do mention an increase in water temperature have used much larger datasets that comprise a much longer time period. For example, Brehm et al. [17] observed an increase in the water temperature in the Baltic Sea of 0.56 °C from 1982 to 2019. They, however, used large numbers of satellite data instead of incidentally measured water temperatures by samplers, which were performed in the current study. Reported observations of water temperature increase in the Netherlands were also based on large long-term datasets. For instance, from 1910 to 2019, the water temperature in the rivers Meuse and Rhine increased by 2.4 °C and 2.9 °C, respectively (Temperatuur oppervlaktewater, 1910–2019|Compendium voor de Leefomgeving, https://www.clo.nl/indicatoren/nl056605-temperatuur-oppervlaktewater-1910-2019) (Environmental Data Compendium, this page is only in Dutch, accessed on 18 February 2025). The observed average increase of the water temperature in the Dutch North Sea of 0.5 °C is also based on long-term measurements, from 1870 to 2022 (Decadal average sea surface temperature anomaly in different European seas (1870 to 2022)—European Environment Agency (europa.eu), https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/maps-and-charts/decadal-average-sea-surface-temperature-5, accessed on 29 July 2025).
Statistical analysis showed that all Vibrio concentrations in the studied water bodies in 2009–2021 were highly temperature dependent. The model for the Vibrio concentration demonstrated a linear relation between water temperature and Vibrio concentrations, in agreement with other studies that showed that temperature is the main driver of Vibrio abundance [4,14,19,45,46]. Although salinity, which is directly related to conductivity, and acidity are also factors that influence Vibrio growth [3,13,19,47], the data obtained in this study were too limited for inclusion in the statistical analysis.
Even though changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change may have an effect on Vibrio abundance through their effect on salinity and nutrient availability [13,14,22], they were not included in this study. Historical precipitation data in the Netherlands, from the 1900s on, show an increase in the mean summer precipitation [35]. The KNMI 2023 climate change scenarios predict a decrease in summer precipitation in 2050, with the largest effect in the Hn scenario and almost no change in the Ln scenario, becoming a trend around 2040. There is a first indication that the summer precipitation increase is already slowing down [35]. Thus far, changes in precipitation patterns were too limited to study any effect during the relatively short time frame of this study.
Higher Vibrio concentrations in water resulted in higher predicted risks upon exposure to this water. For risks below approximately 0.1, the effect of water temperature on the risk was the same as the effect of water temperature on the Vibrio concentration. For risks higher than 0.1, the effect of water temperature was less due to the non-linear relationship between concentration and risk. Based on the amount of water that is ingested during swimming [44], the dose-response relation for V. parahaemolyticus [41,42,43], and the predicted Vibrio concentrations, an estimated 1–3 persons per 1000 persons would become ill per swimming event at a water temperature of 18 °C. This number would increase to 3–5 persons per 100 persons per swimming event at a water temperature of 25 °C (95-percentile values). Since the dose response relation for V. parahaemolyticus and water ingestion was used in the risk assessments, the assessed risks concern gastrointestinal conditions. These risks are relatively high, especially when compared to the tolerated risk of infection (not illness) for drinking water consumption in the Netherlands [48]. However, the estimated Vibrio concentrations used in the risk assessment comprised the total Vibrio population, including other species than V. parahaemolyticus. Consequently, the risk of gastrointestinal illness is probably overestimated, although most other Vibrio species that were detected are also capable of causing gastroenteritis [1]. This includes V. alginolyticus, the most frequently detected species, although literature reports on such infections are limited [49,50,51,52].
Vibrio infections other than cholera are not notifiable in the Netherlands, and there is no active surveillance for such infections. However, other surveillance and registration systems occasionally included human Vibrio infections, of which V. alginolyticus and V. parahaemolyticus were the major aetiology, most frequently isolated from infected wounds [53]. These observations suggest that the calculated risks are indeed an overestimation. The risk calculations do, however, show that the risk increases with increasing water temperature, which is a relevant observation related to climate change-induced temperature increase.
Other Vibrio species and other exposure routes, resulting, for instance, in wound and ear infections, are at least as relevant with respect to swimming in surface water, although the lack of dose-response relations makes it impossible to calculate the risk of illness or infection for these Vibrio–transmission route combinations. However, an increased risk of wound and ear infections is to be expected, based on the expected increased Vibrio concentrations in water as a result of increased water temperatures due to climate change.
In bathing water and open sea, V. alginolyticus was the most prevalent species, followed by V. parahaemolyticus. The occurrence of these Vibrio species was constant per site and over time, although minor year-to-year variations were observed. These observations were in concordance with observations from previous studies in the Netherlands and reflect their ability to tolerate salinity levels that are common in Dutch coastal waters [28,29]. Throughout the years, other Vibrio species were only occasionally detected. A shift towards more virulent species, such as V. vulnificus, was not observed. V. vulnificus causes serious infections, particularly in areas with higher water temperatures [25]. An increase in the prevalence of V. vulnificus in the studied waterbodies in the Netherlands and an expansion of the geographical range of this species may not have occurred because the water temperature is not high enough, and salinity is generally higher than required for optimal growth of V. vulnificus. Moreover, optimal growth of V. vulnificus seems to require a complex, and often site-specific, combination of water temperature and salinity [54], which may not exist in the Netherlands thus far.
The KNMI 2023 climate scenarios [35] do not only predict an increase in temperature, but also an increase in the number of summer days (maximum temperature ≥ 25 °C) and tropical days (maximum temperature ≥ 30 °C), which is likely to result in more swimming activities and a prolonged bathing season, during which persons may be exposed to Vibrio. Since the Vibrio concentrations in water are expected to increase, the overall risks of contracting a Vibrio infection through ingestion of contaminated water while swimming in surface water in the Netherlands are also expected to increase over time. The results of the model used in this study are in line with the predictions made by Trinanes & Martinez-Urtaza [55]. They used models to create scenarios for the spatial and temporal distribution of non-cholera Vibrio species worldwide. They used climate, population and socio-economic data in their models. In the worst-case scenario, with projections for 2015–2100, an increase of 38,000 km coastline with favourable circumstances for Vibrio growth was predicted, as well as a one-month longer season during which Vibrio infections are to be expected. In Europe, the highest rate of expansion of Vibrio was predicted for the northern part of Europe, particularly the Baltic Sea area. According to their scenarios, the population at risk of contracting a Vibrio infection increased between 1980 and 2020, after which the growth trend is expected to weaken to a more moderate rise. Additionally, the models predict that the morbidity due to Vibrio will be more or less stable in the coming decades.

5. Conclusions

From 2009 to 2021, neither a trend of increasing Vibrio concentrations nor a change in the abundant Vibrio species in bathing water and open sea was observed in the Netherlands, implying that the risk of Vibrio illness did not increase during this period. However, based on the results from the prediction model for Vibrio concentrations in surface water in the Netherlands, and the latest climate change scenarios for the Netherlands, increasing Vibrio concentrations and risks of illness are to be expected in 2050 and 2100. These KNMI 2023 climate scenarios are based on the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report [56] and may therefore apply to a larger geographical area in Northern Europe, thus extending the value of our predictions beyond the Netherlands. Increasing Vibrio risks warrant that water managers, public health professionals and the general public are adequately informed about the risks resulting from exposure to surface water, taking into account different infection routes.

Author Contributions

F.M.S.: Conceptualization; Funding acquisition; Investigation; Methodology; Project administration; Visualization; Supervision; Validation; Writing—original draft preparation. I.E.P.-H.: Investigation; Methodology; Validation; Writing—review and editing. H.H.J.L.v.d.B.: Investigation; Methodology; Validation; Writing—review and editing. J.F.S.: Formal analysis; Methodology; Visualization; Software; Validation; Writing—review and editing. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research was funded by the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management (M/270106) and the Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (9-2-21.C).

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

The original contributions presented in this study are included in the article. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Gretta Lynch, Fabio Serafim, Wendy van Overbeek, Sharona de Rijk, Robin Diddens and Alice van der Meij for analysing the samples, Maarten Schipper for statistical assistance, and Floor Biemans and Rob de Jonge for critically reviewing the manuscript.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Abbreviations

The following abbreviations are used in this manuscript:
KNMIRoyal Dutch Meteorological Institute
ASPWAlkaline Saline Peptone Water
TCBSThiosulphate Citrate Bile Sucrose Agar
SNASaline Nutrient Agar
PCRPolymerase Chain Reaction
MPNMost Probable Number
QMRAQuantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

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Figure 1. Vibrio concentrations at bathing sites and open sea in The Netherlands, 2009–2021.
Figure 1. Vibrio concentrations at bathing sites and open sea in The Netherlands, 2009–2021.
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Figure 2. Water temperature at bathing sites and open sea in the Netherlands, 2009–2021.
Figure 2. Water temperature at bathing sites and open sea in the Netherlands, 2009–2021.
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Figure 3. Predicted Vibrio concentrations in water (number/L) in water temperature scenarios of 10 °C, 18 °C, 20 °C, 22 °C and 25 °C for site–water type–year combinations. The boxplots display the median (horizontal line), quartiles (boxes), and the 5–95 percentiles (whiskers).
Figure 3. Predicted Vibrio concentrations in water (number/L) in water temperature scenarios of 10 °C, 18 °C, 20 °C, 22 °C and 25 °C for site–water type–year combinations. The boxplots display the median (horizontal line), quartiles (boxes), and the 5–95 percentiles (whiskers).
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Figure 4. Estimated risk of Vibrio illness for water ingestion during one swimming event for V. parahaemolyticus only, for children, men and women, in different water temperature scenarios.
Figure 4. Estimated risk of Vibrio illness for water ingestion during one swimming event for V. parahaemolyticus only, for children, men and women, in different water temperature scenarios.
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Table 1. Parameter values for Vibrio risk assessment in water.
Table 1. Parameter values for Vibrio risk assessment in water.
Model ParameterDimensionValueMeanMedian5–95%References
variable
a010log(MPN/L)N 2 (0.021, 0.36) Equation (1)
a110log(MPN/L)/°CN (0.17, 0.017) Equation (1)
ε010log(MPN/L)0.89 Equation (1)
ε110log(MPN/L)0.90 Equation (1)
dose
response 1
α −0.6 [40,41]
β 1.3 × 106 [40,41]
water
ingestion
VchildmLG 3 (0.64, 58)38200.51–133[42]
VwomanmLG (0.45, 60)188.10.076–67[42]
VmanmLG (0.51, 35)27110.062–110[42]
1 Based on dose-response parameters for V. parahaemolyticus. 2 Normal distribution. 3 Gamma distribution.
Table 2. Vibrio concentrations and physical-chemical parameters in bathing water and open sea in the Netherlands.
Table 2. Vibrio concentrations and physical-chemical parameters in bathing water and open sea in the Netherlands.
SiteNorth Sea—Bathing SiteEastern Scheldt—Bathing SiteEastern Scheldt—Open SeaWadden Sea—Bathing SiteWadden Sea—Open SeaVeerse Meer—Bathing Site/Open Sea
ParameterYear201920202019202020192020202120192020201920202021201920202021
no. samples 20131913610719138111081211
Vibrio concentration (MPN/L)min09.22.3 × 1024.7 × 1011.5 × 1023.205.8 × 10205.5 × 101001.2 × 10300
max8.4 × 1043.9 × 1044.2 × 1054.3 × 1062.2 × 1041.2 × 1041.5 × 1044.6 × 1051.5 × 1061.2 × 1039.2 × 1034.3 × 1031.4 × 1042.0 × 1051.4 × 104
average9.6 × 1035.3 × 1036.6 × 1043.9 × 1054.9 × 1032.5 × 1033.4 × 1031.3 × 1052.8 × 1054.2 × 1021.9 × 1037.8 × 1024.7 × 1032.5 × 1052.3 × 103
median2.8 × 1031.9 × 1032.8 × 1034.2 × 1031.5 × 1032.0 × 1032.2 × 1024.5 × 1043.2 × 1043.0 × 1026.6 × 1021.5 × 1023.6 × 1031.9 × 1033.9 × 102
Water temperature (°C)min11.09.912.48.612.67.27.210.06.912.16.17.314.36.27.2
max20.621.123.827.221.424.220.719.222.823.023.520.823.424.522.2
average17.116.019.318.016.817.016.816.115.018.217.016.919.419.018.0
median17.017.019.617.716.817.618.716.416.018.017.818.019.819.119.1
acidity (pH)min7.98.08.08.0-5.67.26.87.5-5.16.4-7.36.6
max8.38.28.68.4-8.38.48.08.0-8.38.4-8.68.6
average8.28.08.38.0-8.07.97.88.0-8.07.6-8.07.8
median8.28.18.38.2-8.08.17.87.9-8.17.6-8.38.2
conductivity (mS/cm)min42.440.7-42.6--47.728.917.2--47.6--43.4
max51.043.650.046.5--56.947.241.8--59.2--56.3
average49.043.050.045.0--52.637.231.0--53.2--49.4
median49.643.250.045.0--53.528.129.4--53.9--50.5
-: no data.
Table 3. Prevalence of Vibrio species in water samples from the North Sea, Eastern Scheldt, Wadden Sea and Veerse Meer, from 2019 to 2020 and from 2009 to 2012.
Table 3. Prevalence of Vibrio species in water samples from the North Sea, Eastern Scheldt, Wadden Sea and Veerse Meer, from 2019 to 2020 and from 2009 to 2012.
SiteYearNumber (%) of Isolates Per Species
Vibrio TotalV. alginolyticusV. parahaemolyticusV. vulnificusV. fluvialisV. cholerae Non-O1\non-O139V. mimicusVibrio spp.
2019 N (%)N (%)N (%)N (%)N (%)N (%)-
North Sea 1 10391 (88)9 (8.7)1 (1.0)1 (1.0)--1 (1.0)
Eastern Scheldt 1 108100 (93)7 (6.5)--1 (0.9)--
Wadden Sea 1 10548 (46)52 (50)1 (1.0)1 (1.0)2 (1.9)1 (1.0)-
2020
North Sea 1 5248 (92)3 (5.8)-1 (1.9)---
Eastern Scheldt 1 6661 (92)3 (4.5)-2 (3.0)---
Wadden Sea 1 5831 (53)18 (31)1 (1.7)3 (5.2)1 (1.7)-4 (6.9)
Total 1 492379 (77)92 (19)3 (0.6)8 (1.6)4 (0.8)1 (0.2)5 (1.0)
2019
Veerse Meer 1,2 4322 (51)21 (49)-----
Eastern Scheldt 2 4036 (90)3 (7.5)-1 (2.5)---
Wadden Sea 2 4126 (63)14 (34)1 (2.4)----
2020
Veerse Meer 1,2 4634 (74)11 (24)----1 (2.2)
Eastern Scheldt 2 4438 (86)5 (11)-1 (2.3)---
Wadden Sea 2 4537 (82)4 (8.9)1 (2.2)---3 (6.7)
2021
Veerse Meer 1,2 3516 (46)16 (46)-1 (2.9)--2 (5.7)
Eastern Scheldt 2 2524 (96)--1 (4.0)---
Wadden Sea 2 3422 (65)10 (29)1 (2.9)1 (2.9)---
Total 1,2 353255 (72)84 (24)3 (0.8)5 (1.4)--6 (1.7)
total 845634 (75)176 (21)6 (0.7)13 (1.5)4 (0.5)1 (0.1)11 (1.3)
2009–2012
North Sea 1 265172 (65)65 (24)5 (1.9)2 (0.8)8 (3.0)-6 (2.3)
Eastern Scheldt 1 310275 (89)26 (8.4)-1 (0.3)2 (0.6)-6 (1.9)
Wadden Sea 1 173106 (61)41 (24)-8 (4.6)12 (6.9)-6 (3.4)
Total 1 748553 (74)132 (18)5 (0.7)11 (1.5)22 (2.9)-18 (2.4)
1 bathing site. 2 open sea. -: species not detected.
Table 4. Predicted Vibrio concentrations in water in different water temperature scenarios.
Table 4. Predicted Vibrio concentrations in water in different water temperature scenarios.
Water Temperature Scenario5%MedianMean95%
10 °C0.36618.9 × 1038.5 × 103
18 °C8.81.3 × 1031.6 × 1052.5 × 105
20 °C193.3 × 1033.2 × 1056.0 × 105
22 °C397.0 × 1038.2 × 1051.2 × 106
25 °C1202.4 × 1042.3 × 1064.6 × 106
Table 5. Risks of illness from water ingestion per swimming event.
Table 5. Risks of illness from water ingestion per swimming event.
Water Temperature Scenario5%MedianAverage95%
Child
10 °C9.2 × 10−104.3 × 10−77.9 × 10−51.1 × 10−4
18 °C2.1 × 10−89.2 × 10−61.7 × 10−32.9 × 10−3
20 °C3.8 × 10−82.3 × 10−52.8 × 10−36.7 × 10−3
22 °C9.8 × 10−84.9 × 10−55.6 × 10−31.4 × 10−2
25 °C2.6 × 10−71.7 × 10−41.3 × 10−25.0 × 10−2
Man
10 °C2.2 × 10−105.2 × 10−69.0 × 10−57.1 × 10−5
18 °C5.5 × 10−94.9 × 10−61.2 × 10−31.8 × 10−3
20 °C1.0 × 10−81.2 × 10−52.3 × 10−35.5 × 10−3
22 °C2.7 × 10−82.6 × 10−54.1 × 10−39.8 × 10−3
25 °C8.6 × 10−88.9 × 10−51.1 × 10−23.9 × 10−2
Woman
10 °C2.2 × 10−101.7 × 10−75.4 × 10−55.1 × 10−5
18 °C5.2 × 10−93.8 × 10−69.0 × 10−41.3 × 10−3
20 °C1.2 × 10−89.5 × 10−61.7 × 10−33.5 × 10−3
22 °C2.8 × 10−82.0 × 10−53.2 × 10−37.1 × 10−3
25 °C8.0 × 10−87.4 × 10−57.7 × 10−32.5 × 10−2
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Schets, F.M.; Pol-Hofstad, I.E.; van den Berg, H.H.J.L.; Schijven, J.F. Climate Change-Related Temperature Impact on Human Health Risks of Vibrio Species in Bathing and Surface Water. Microorganisms 2025, 13, 1893. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms13081893

AMA Style

Schets FM, Pol-Hofstad IE, van den Berg HHJL, Schijven JF. Climate Change-Related Temperature Impact on Human Health Risks of Vibrio Species in Bathing and Surface Water. Microorganisms. 2025; 13(8):1893. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms13081893

Chicago/Turabian Style

Schets, Franciska M., Irene E. Pol-Hofstad, Harold H. J. L. van den Berg, and Jack F. Schijven. 2025. "Climate Change-Related Temperature Impact on Human Health Risks of Vibrio Species in Bathing and Surface Water" Microorganisms 13, no. 8: 1893. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms13081893

APA Style

Schets, F. M., Pol-Hofstad, I. E., van den Berg, H. H. J. L., & Schijven, J. F. (2025). Climate Change-Related Temperature Impact on Human Health Risks of Vibrio Species in Bathing and Surface Water. Microorganisms, 13(8), 1893. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms13081893

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