3.1. Pedigree Completeness and Inbreeding Level
The parameters of pedigree completeness for the two groups of horses are listed in
Table 2. In the studied population, all horses have both known parents. The longest ancestral paths were found for 7 individuals and included 16 generations. This corresponds with other studies for local horse breeds [
34,
35,
36]. The quality of pedigree also depends on the period of occurrence of the particular breed and generation intervals. Due to the 100 years of history of the Polish Konik horses, the parameters for this population are very satisfactory. The completeness of pedigree was evaluated using the complete generation equivalent. According to Maignel et al. [
37], this is the best method to evaluate the quality of ancestor information. It is assumed that complete pedigrees should include information on five generations [
38]. The average number of generations calculated in the present study for the full set of horses is 6.7.
It should be noted that the high inbreeding level in the Polish Konik horse population corresponds with its genetic structure. This situation results in lower genetic variability, which may affect negative inbreeding effects on fitness traits [
39]. Reductions in genetic diversity and, in consequence, the expression of genetic defects are often observed. In the present study, about 95% of horses in the pedigree database are inbred (with nonzero inbreeding coefficient) (see:
Table 2). Assessed inbreeding coefficients for all recorded horses ranged from 0 to 28%. The minimum inbreeding coefficient for the recorded animals was 0 (for four individuals with a minimum of two full generations of ancestors). The average
F for the control group was 7.1%, and for the asthma group it was 7.2%. This is quite a high level compared with those of Warmblood breeds, such as Holstein horses (2.27%) [
40] and the Slovak Sport Pony (2.67%) [
36]. In some cases, such low homozygosity may result from incomplete pedigree information. The high inbreeding level results from the fact that it is a closed population under conservation of genetic resources, this being a typical situation for populations housed in zoological gardens [
41]. Posta et al. [
42] estimated the inbreeding level of another primitive breed, Hucul horses, to be currently around 7.5%. Szwaczkowski et al. [
5] assessed the average inbreeding coefficient at 9.3% for the total population of Polish Konik horses. This was quite a high value; by comparison, Wolc and Balińska [
43] determined that the same parameter for this breed in three Polish studs ranged from 5.1 to 5.9%. The highest level of homozygosity for healthy individuals was 28%, whereas for asthma-affected horses it was 19%. Some fluctuations of homozygosity, with an upward tendency, have been noticeable in recent years, especially for asthma-affected horses.
There are also publications dealing with the issue of maternal inbreeding effects on the health traits of animals [
44,
45,
46]. In the case of populations under conservation genetic resources, it seems particularly necessary to study the effects of individual as well as maternal inbreeding, because they may be differential [
45]. The average maternal inbreeding coefficient for all recorded animals was 5.8% (for 37 dams, the value was 0). The average was 5.5% for the control group and 7.2% for the asthma group.
3.2. Impact of the Studied Factors on EA
The results of the statistical analysis of sex, birth period, stud, inbreeding and parentage lines, using two approaches, are listed in
Table 3,
Table 4,
Table 5 and
Table 6. All of the evaluations performed non-parametric analysis (
Table 3), and logistic regression (
Table 4) showed no significant effects of inbreeding on asthma morbidity (the
p-values were 0.707 and 0.922 respectively), but a significant effect (
p = 0.022) was observed for the maternal inbreeding coefficient in the logistic regression analyses (Model IV). Generally, no significant effects of sex and parentage lines on heaves morbidity were identified with the use of logistic regression, although the Pearson’s chi-squared test had shown significant effects for these factors. Only the analysis for Model III indicated that individuals from some birth periods have a predisposition to equine asthma.
Table 7 contains goodness-of-fit statistics for each model. The AIC indicated that Models IV and VIII, including the maternal inbreeding effect, were more adequate.
Several reports on the genetic and environmental backgrounds of EA can be found in the literature. Schaeper [
14] was the first to present results on the inheritance of this disorder. According to his study, equine lower airway chronic disease is more frequent in the progeny of affected parents: 14 out of 27 offspring from an asthma-affected stallion were found to suffer from the disorder. More detailed research was performed by Marti et al. [
16], who studied predisposition to asthma in two different breeds, Warmblood and Lipizzan horses, with known clinical history of heaves among their ancestors. They demonstrated that offspring with one parent affected by recurrent airway obstruction had a 3.2 times higher risk (
p < 0.05) of morbidity than animals with healthy ancestors. When both parents were affected by the disease, the risk that the offspring would be asthma-affected was almost 4.6 times higher (
p < 0.05) than when both parents were healthy.
In the present study, horses from both groups (asthma-affected and healthy) exhibited a similar inbreeding level over the years. To our knowledge, there are no available studies on the effect of inbreeding on asthma morbidity. Generally, the mating of relatives is usually undesirable both for improved and conserved populations. On the other hand, inbreeding effects may be mainly caused by the gene pool of the population. There are many disorders that are revealed at a higher level of homozygosity. Smallbone et al. [
47] found the correlation between the inbreeding effect and
Gyrodactylus turnbulli infection in guppies. The effect of the mating of relatives on lamb survival was estimated by Maxa et al. [
48]. However, it is well known that many genetic disorders are not associated with inbreeding. Brault et al. [
49] studied the genetic backgrounds of cerebellar abiotrophy in Arabians and found no inbreeding effects on the disease. These parameters were also not found to be associated with atrial fibrillation in Standardbred horses [
50].
One-way analysis showed that within the studied maternal and paternal lines there is some predisposition to the disease (
Table 3 and
Table 4). Estimated odds ratios (
Table 5) for the Dzina I maternal line and Liliput paternal line show a higher risk of heaves morbidity than for the reference lines: Zaza and Wicek. It is notable that 80% of descendants from the Dzina I line and 60% from the Liliput line had asthmatic symptoms. Each of these lines accounted for more than 10% of all horses in the affected group. There are few reports describing the influence of breeding lines on asthma morbidity. The predisposition of particular races has not been precisely explained to date. Robinson [
51] and Leclere et al. [
52] reported no association between heaves and the breed of the horse. On the other hand, Couetil et al. [
27] analysed 1444 cases of the disease and reported breed predisposition as one of the risk factors. They suggested that in Thoroughbreds, asthma occurrence was three times higher than in other breeds. In the Polish Konik horse population, the frequency of morbidity of asthma is quite high (25%). Due to their high resistance to the external environment, it would seem that they would be less prone to illness. Polish Konik horses adapt quickly even to harsh external conditions [
53]. However, as reported by Sowińska et al. [
54], environmental changes considerably affect the welfare and related traits of the horses. It must be recalled that the studied parentage lines were created about 100 years ago [
55]. Since then, their genetic diversities have been determined by many factors, including random mating, migration of stallions, and subsequently by selection. The multifactor logistic regression models did not indicate any significant differences in the risk of asthma between parentage lines. However, in the analysis of lines in the models (
Table 5), the odds ratios for the Dzina I maternal line and Liliput paternal line are again higher than for the reference lines: Zaza and Wicek. Certainly, in further analyses, a careful examination of this factor is essential; it is also necessary to use a larger number of recorded individuals.
As is known, recurrent airway obstruction is considerably affected by environmental factors. It has been confirmed that hay feeding is a major risk factor for heaves [
11,
18,
56]. Ivester et al. [
57] found that even in hay of the best quality, some insects, fungal and inorganic dust are present. Factors such as the use of straw as litter and poor ventilation also increase the number of asthma-affected horses. It should be noted that the studied horses came from two studs, but the horse keeping systems in them were similar; the horses largely spent their time in the pastures. However, the parameters of the microclimate in the stables and the quality of the feed were not monitored, therefore the stud effect was included in the analyses. The results show a significant effect of the stud on the risk of asthma; however, this may be due to the parental lines maintained in the compared herds. Pearson’s chi-squared test indicated a highly significant difference between the number of descendants from respective maternal and paternal lines in the compared studs. In the stud A, there were significantly more individuals from the Dzina I and Liliput lines, for whom the conducted analyses showed a greater susceptibility to asthma.
It would be worthwhile to compare more subpopulations from different habitats, and to analyse the frequency of morbidity considering their genetic backgrounds and environmental conditions.
Generally, it was shown that birth period had no statistically significant effect on the occurrence of the disease (
Table 3); only Model III in the logistic regression analysis (
Table 4) indicated some significant effects (
p = 0.02). Over successive years, the level of asthma incidences fluctuated. This suggests that there are no significant changes in the gene pool of the whole population that would lead to a larger proportion of asthma-affected horses. Changes of environment and the keeping of animals in closed buildings affected the manifestation of the disease. However, there are no significant trends, in terms of genetic factors, which could cause the number of asthma-affected horses to increase dramatically from year to year, although the odds ratio analysis indicated some significant effects in terms of higher asthma risk for horses born in the period 2000–2009 (
Table 6). Previous studies have considered only the age of the animal and its predisposition to equine asthma [
9,
58]. An increasing number of morbidity cases has been observed in humans suffering from other disorders associated with allergic diseases [
59]. The incidence of hypersensitive reactions may also have increased over the last decades in animals.
Finally, the odds ratio (OR), representing the rate of occurrence of the disease in one group relative to the so-called reference group, revealed certain dependencies of the incidence of heaves (
Table 5 and
Table 6). Each of the analysed factors was associated with some predisposition to heaves morbidity. However, statistically significant effects were identified for stud A, the 2000–2009 birth period, and the parentage lines Dzina I and Liliput. Moreover, the confidence limit exceeds 1. This indicates the relative risk of developing asthma in these groups. In consequence, a genetic background of asthma may be hypothesised. The results obtained in this study also correspond with conclusions reported for Warmblood horses [
11,
18,
60]. Some predispositions were also identified for maternal inbreeding. The non-inbred group contains a high percentage of healthy individuals (92%), whereas statistical inference for the analysis of the individual inbreeding effects should be performed with caution, due to the absence of non-inbred individuals in the asthma-affected group.
In the case of field-collected data (e.g., epidemiological studies), the accuracy of statistical inference depends on the availability of positively defined individuals. This corresponds to simulation studies (see, e.g., [
61], where increasing incidence rates of the disease syndrome are positively correlated with the accuracy of estimated parameters under both linear and threshold models). Moreover, for relatively small samples, homogeneity of the experimental material is desirable. Let us recall that in our study, the symptoms of asthma have been verified by veterinarians. This applied to only 10% of the recorded horses (from one stud, only). However, the observations made by breeders were fully confirmed by clinical studies. As already mentioned, the low frequency of sick animals would make it impossible to perform a statistical inference covering experimental factors, which is important from the breeding point of view. Unfortunately, this number of sick animals is still insufficient to estimate genetic parameters, for instance, heritability coefficients. However, in the case of populations under the genetic resource conservation programs, the role of genetic parameters is smaller than in herds with genetic improvement programs.
On the other hand, the present study suggests a genetic background of asthma, manifested by differences among parentage lines and inbreeding levels.