Regional Manufacturing Industry Demand Forecasting: A Deep Learning Approach
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. The Impact of Intelligent Technology on the Manufacturing Industry
2.2. Influencing Factors of the Manufacturing Industry
2.3. Industrial Demand Forecasting Method
3. Research Framework
3.1. Index System
3.2. Research Method
3.3. Evaluation Criteria
4. Experimental Results
4.1. Data Source
4.2. Data Test
4.2.1. Correlation Analysis
4.2.2. Lasso Selection
4.3. Results
4.3.1. LSTM Result
4.3.2. Comparative Prediction Model
4.3.3. Manufacturing Industry Demand Forecasting
5. Discussion
5.1. Theoretical Implication
5.2. Practical Implication
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Research Target | Influence Variables | Variable Explanation |
---|---|---|
MIDF(Y) | FCI (X1) [26,27,28] | International co-operation |
General Public Budget Expenditure for Science and Technology (X2) [29,30] | Government subsidies | |
GDP (X3) [31,32] | Economic development | |
Tertiary Industry (X4) [33,34] | Service level | |
Number of Patent Applications Granted(X5) [38,39] | Technical protection | |
Internal Expenditure on R&D (X6) [40] | Technology input | |
Sales Revenue of New Products (X7) [41,42] | Technology output |
Year/Month | Y | X1 | X2 | X3 | X4 | X5 | X6 | X7 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | 29,554.92 | 828.64 | 56.42 | 18,658.34 | 8246.80 | 1941.00 | 147.56 | 3055.19 |
2004/6 | 32,748.83 | 920.73 | 62.56 | 20,310.67 | 8882.68 | 1908.50 | 163.98 | 3219.53 |
2005 | 35,942.74 | 1012.81 | 68.70 | 21,962.99 | 9518.55 | 1876.00 | 180.39 | 3383.88 |
2005/6 | 40,308.75 | 1084.79 | 74.19 | 23,962.12 | 10,413.55 | 2158.50 | 213.74 | 3800.21 |
2006 | 44,674.75 | 1156.76 | 79.67 | 25,961.24 | 11,308.54 | 2441.00 | 247.08 | 4216.53 |
2006/6 | 49,963.81 | 1229.51 | 99.47 | 28,851.93 | 12,682.55 | 3077.50 | 291.72 | 4493.44 |
2007 | 55,252.86 | 1302.26 | 119.26 | 31,742.61 | 14,056.56 | 3714.00 | 336.37 | 4770.34 |
2007/6 | 60,338.74 | 1316.72 | 125.89 | 34,223.39 | 15,160.26 | 5659.00 | 373.66 | 5936.91 |
2008 | 65,424.61 | 1331.17 | 132.52 | 36,704.16 | 16,263.96 | 7604.00 | 410.96 | 7103.48 |
2008/6 | 66,850.19 | 1332.79 | 150.51 | 38,084.43 | 17,171.50 | 9479.50 | 481.67 | 7699.51 |
2009 | 68,275.77 | 1334.41 | 168.50 | 39,464.69 | 18,079.03 | 11,355.00 | 552.37 | 8295.55 |
2009/6 | 77,050.21 | 1352.99 | 191.47 | 42,704.66 | 19,453.31 | 12,523.00 | 628.03 | 10,083.92 |
2010 | 85,824.64 | 1371.57 | 214.44 | 45,944.62 | 20,827.59 | 13,691.00 | 703.68 | 11,872.29 |
2010/6 | 90,348.16 | 1389.74 | 209.18 | 49,508.71 | 22,593.07 | 15,966.50 | 801.56 | 13,127.28 |
2011 | 94,871.68 | 1407.91 | 203.92 | 53,072.79 | 24,358.54 | 18,242.00 | 899.44 | 14,382.27 |
2011/6 | 95,236.89 | 1447.23 | 225.32 | 55,040.27 | 25,654.42 | 20,197.50 | 988.65 | 14,892.56 |
2012 | 95,602.09 | 1486.54 | 246.71 | 57,007.74 | 26,950.30 | 22,153.00 | 1077.86 | 15,402.85 |
2012/6 | 102,637.58 | 1515.94 | 295.83 | 59,755.58 | 28,617.16 | 21,118.50 | 1157.67 | 16,708.29 |
2013 | 109,673.07 | 1545.33 | 344.94 | 62,503.41 | 30,284.02 | 20,084.00 | 1237.48 | 18,013.74 |
2013/6 | 114,693.06 | 1598.00 | 309.64 | 65,338.22 | 31,743.99 | 21,180.00 | 1306.38 | 19,163.53 |
2014 | 119,713.04 | 1650.66 | 274.33 | 68,173.03 | 33,203.95 | 22,276.00 | 1375.29 | 20,313.32 |
2014/6 | 122,181.10 | 1662.28 | 421.94 | 71,452.74 | 35,416.44 | 27,876.50 | 1447.92 | 21,477.91 |
2015 | 124,649.16 | 1673.91 | 569.55 | 74,732.44 | 37,628.92 | 33,477.00 | 1520.55 | 22,642.50 |
2015/6 | 129,208.60 | 1612.42 | 656.26 | 78,447.83 | 40,396.21 | 36,051.50 | 1598.41 | 25,656.96 |
2016 | 133,768.04 | 1550.92 | 742.97 | 82,163.22 | 43,163.49 | 38,626.00 | 1676.27 | 28,671.41 |
2016/6 | 134,745.23 | 1548.77 | 783.43 | 86,905.98 | 46,332.09 | 42,183.00 | 1770.65 | 31,767.22 |
2017 | 135,722.42 | 1546.61 | 823.89 | 91,648.73 | 49,500.68 | 45,740.00 | 1865.03 | 34,863.03 |
2017/6 | 138,060.68 | 1498.75 | 929.30 | 95,796.98 | 52,105.53 | 49,499.50 | 1986.12 | 37,119.54 |
2018 | 140,398.93 | 1450.88 | 1034.71 | 99,945.22 | 54,710.37 | 53,259.00 | 2107.20 | 39,376.06 |
2018/6 | 143,260.33 | 1486.44 | 1101.75 | 103,808.15 | 57,241.88 | 56,500.50 | 2211.03 | 41,173.06 |
2019 | 146,121.72 | 1522.00 | 1168.79 | 107,671.07 | 59,773.38 | 59,742.00 | 2314.86 | 42,970.06 |
X1 | X2 | X3 | X4 | X5 | X6 | X7 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The coefficient | 43.68 | −13.51 | 1.24 | −2.16 | 0.19 | 25.57 | 1.10 |
The state | True | True | True | True | True | True | True |
LSTM | SVM | BP | AR | RF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAE | 463.4339183 | 2891.278648 | 1074.917976 | 2019.226016 | 1397.206419 |
RMSE | 874.8308509 | 3840.997444 | 1446.326249 | 2783.584018 | 2125.591786 |
MAPE | 0.63% | 3.59% | 1.28% | 3.12% | 2.49% |
LSTM | BP | GM(1,1) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
X1 | MAE | 24.40906 | 23.10708 | 85.94395 |
RMSE | 29.53632 | 30.3987 | 105.9244 | |
MAPE | 1.90% | 1.54% | 6.16% | |
X2 | MAE | 21.92619 | 19.14836 | 43.33882 |
RMSE | 34.78503 | 31.27112 | 59.63684 | |
MAPE | 6.84% | 6.07% | 13.52% | |
X3 | MAE | 417.0695 | 307.9188 | 1809.08 |
RMSE | 605.0364 | 384.5287 | 2440.184 | |
MAPE | 0.82% | 0.69% | 4.66% | |
X4 | MAE | 197.5453 | 148.132 | 716.5678 |
RMSE | 239.7368 | 170.3009 | 991.3312 | |
MAPE | 0.83% | 0.66% | 3.61% | |
X5 | MAE | 825.8111 | 657.8572 | 4130.789 |
RMSE | 1257.428 | 981.4491 | 5145.899 | |
MAPE | 7.33% | 6.05% | 46.90% | |
X6 | MAE | 5.059089 | 5.213758 | 131.1709 |
RMSE | 6.703232 | 6.394745 | 159.7326 | |
MAPE | 0.97% | 0.93% | 24.89% | |
X7 | MAE | 393.3796 | 203.6164 | 1507.022 |
RMSE | 493.4832 | 289.1982 | 1955.195 | |
MAPE | 3.37% | 2.25% | 14.87% | |
Y | MAE | 4852.551 | 1443.969 | 7749.021 |
RMSE | 6092.578 | 1993.786 | 9211.345 | |
MAPE | 5.46% | 1.56% | 10.31% |
Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
---|---|---|---|
X1 | 1558.81 | 1581.46 | 1603.743652 |
X2 | 1290.37 | 1380.12 | 1438.61 |
X3 | 114,712.38 | 121,186.86 | 126,723.83 |
X4 | 64,732.88 | 69,585.25 | 74,398.74 |
X5 | 65,494.22 | 70,856.7 | 79,074.36 |
X6 | 2480.69 | 2619.76 | 2752.09 |
X7 | 45,951.31 | 48,622.86 | 51,048.66 |
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
---|---|---|---|
Y | 147,080.37 | 148,783.48 | 149,772.4 |
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Dou, Z.; Sun, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, T.; Wu, C.; Fan, S. Regional Manufacturing Industry Demand Forecasting: A Deep Learning Approach. Appl. Sci. 2021, 11, 6199. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11136199
Dou Z, Sun Y, Zhang Y, Wang T, Wu C, Fan S. Regional Manufacturing Industry Demand Forecasting: A Deep Learning Approach. Applied Sciences. 2021; 11(13):6199. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11136199
Chicago/Turabian StyleDou, Zixin, Yanming Sun, Yuan Zhang, Tao Wang, Chuliang Wu, and Shiqi Fan. 2021. "Regional Manufacturing Industry Demand Forecasting: A Deep Learning Approach" Applied Sciences 11, no. 13: 6199. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11136199