Bayes Conditional Probability of Fuzzy Damage and Technical Wear of Residential Buildings
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Literature Survey
- Certainty: all the information that describes the issue of decision-making is deterministic, i.e., options for choosing a decision, and what each choice gives in terms of certain usefulness (e.g., value analysis) etc., is known. In this case, making decisions comes down to the direct maximization of the utility function;
- Risk: information that describes the decision-making issue is probabilistic, i.e., appropriate probability distributions are provided. In this case, making decisions comes down to maximizing the expected value of the utility function;
- Indeterminacy: even probabilities are not known. Decision-making usually comes down to applying a minimax strategy in order to ensure the highest utility value under the most unfavorable conditions;
- Fuzziness: indeterminacy not only relates to the occurrence of an event, but also to its meaning in general, which can no longer be described using probabilistic methods. Of course, further extensions are possible here, such as adding risk to fuzziness.
1.2. Research Sample
- age coherence, i.e., a similar period of erection, maintenance, and use with regards to historical and social aspects;
- compactness of the building development in the urban layout that remained unchanged for years;
- similar location along downtown street routes with an urban, but not representative, character;
- construction and material homogeneity, especially with regards to the load-bearing structure of buildings;
- identical functional solutions, understood as the standard of apartment amenities and furnishings (for that time), and a defined standard of living for residents.
2. Research Method
2.1. Problem Identification
- UM—mechanical damage to the structure and texture of building elements;
- UW—damage to building elements caused by water penetration and moisture penetration;
- UD—damage resulting from the loss of the original shape of wooden elements;
- UP—damage to wooden elements attacked by biological pests.
2.2. Model of Determining the Conditional Probabilities of the Process of Technical Wear in Relation to the Occurrence of Damage
- ZII = {20, 25, 30}% = {z1, z2, z3}, moreover, z4 = 0;
- ZIII = {35, 40, 45, 50}% = {z1, z2, z3, z4};
- ZIV = {55, 60, 65, 70}% = {z1, z2, z3, z4}.
- 1 architect;
- 1 structural engineer;
- 1 mechanical/sanitary engineer;
- 1 electrical engineer;
- 2 quantity surveyors;
- 1 technician/administrator.
- satisfactory—P(U/ZII);
- average—P(U/ZIII);
- poor—P(U/ZIV);
- satisfactory and average—P(U/ZII•ZIII);
- satisfactory and poor—P(U/ZII•ZIV);
- average and poor—P(U/ZIII•ZIV);
- satisfactory, average and poor—P(U/ZII•ZIII•ZIV).
− P(U/ZII•ZIV)•P(ZII•ZIV) − P(U/ZIII•ZIV)•P(ZIII•ZIV)
+ P(U/ZII•ZIII•ZIV)•P(ZII•ZIII•ZIV)
2.3. The Model for Determining the Conditional Probabilities of a Set of Damage in Relation to the Process of Their Technical Wear
− P(Z/UII•UIII)•P(UII•UIII) − P(Z/UII•UIV)•P(UII•UIV) − P(Z/UIII•UIV)•P(UIII•UIV)
+ P(Z/UII•UIII•UIV)•P(UII•UIII•UIV)
3. Results
- the probability of the conditional process of the technical wear, which corresponds to the three middle states of maintenance of the building elements, with regards to damage—P (Z/U) II, III, IV—is as follows:
- the conditional probability of the technical wear of an element in relation to its damage increases with the deterioration of the maintenance conditions of the building (this is an exceptionally steady increase, even in the case of different building elements);
- the probability of such a conditionally defined fuzzy event indicates the state of the technical wear for which the fuzzy damage occurs with the highest intensity, and it amounts, for the following elements of the tested residential buildings in their average maintenance condition P(ZIII/U), to:
- ∘
- for foundations: dampness of foundations 0.40
- ∘
- for basement walls: crack in bricks 0.39
- ∘
- for solid floors above basements: dampness of floors 0.38
- ∘
- for structural walls: cracks of plaster 0.40
- ∘
- for wooden inter-storey floors: weeping on floors 0.44
- ∘
- for internal stairs: weeping on stairs 0.46
- ∘
- for roof constructions: delamination of beams 0.35
- ∘
- for window joinery: mold and rot on windows 0.37
- ∘
- for inner plasters: scratches on plaster 0.36
- ∘
- for facades: scratches on plaster 0.37
The above values are therefore a fuzzy value of the probability of the degree of the technical wear, which was determined as an average degree, i.e., within the range of 35–50%—in the case of the occurrence of a fuzzy damage to the building element;- this probability is characterized by a low standard deviation and a narrow range of the results of various elements within each of the considered building maintenance conditions—satisfactory (0.2622–0.3846), average (0.3510–0.4613) and poor (0.4995–0.6466). A similar remark concerns the mean value of this probability in relation to its probabilistic measure;
- the conditional probability of a group of damage, which corresponds to the three middle states of maintenance of building elements, in relation to the process of their technical wear—P(U/Z) II, III, IV—is as follows:
- the conditional probability of damage to the element in relation to its technical wear increases with the deterioration of the building maintenance conditions;
- the probability of such a conditionally defined fuzzy event is indicated by the damage that most intensely affects the technical wear of the following elements of the tested residential buildings, and it amounts in their average maintenance condition P(UIII/Z) to:
- ∘
- for foundations: dampness of foundations 0.27
- ∘
- for basement walls: crack in bricks 0.55
- ∘
- for solid floors above basements: dampness of floors 0.46
- ∘
- for structural walls: cracks of plaster 0.45
- ∘
- for wooden inter-storey floors: weeping on floors 0.31
- ∘
- for internal stairs: weeping on stairs 0.58
- ∘
- for roof constructions: delamination of beams 0.66
- ∘
- for window joinery: mold and rot on windows 0.50
- ∘
- for inner plasters: scratches on plaster 0.46
- ∘
- for facades: scratches on plaster 0.36
The above values are therefore a fuzzy value of the probability of damage to a building element, but only in the case that its fuzzy technical wear is determined to be an average degree, i.e., within the range of 35–50%;- the irregularity of this increase and the too-high coefficients of variation indicate only a partial identity of the fuzzy event defined within aspect B with the reverse event; the fuzzy event determined within aspect A is characterized by a much greater consistency of the obtained results.
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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No. of Damage | Name of Damage | Probability of Damage (u) that Corresponds to the II, III, and IV Maintenance Conditions of an Element | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Z2–Foundations | Z3–Basement Walls | Z4–Solid Floors Above Basements | Z7–Structural Walls | ||||||||||
p(u)II | p(u)III | p(u)IV | p(u)II | p(u)III | p(u)IV | p(u)II | p(u)III | p(u)IV | p(u)II | p(u)III | p(u)IV | ||
u1 | Mechanical damage | ||||||||||||
u2 | Leaks | ||||||||||||
u3 | Brick losses | 0.71 | 0.77 | 0.91 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.79 | 0.61 | 0.76 | 0.65 | 0.81 | 0.98 | 1.00 |
u4 | Mortar losses | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 0.63 | 0.95 | 1.00 | ||||||
u5 | Brick decay | 0.43 | 0.81 | 0.64 | 0.42 | 0.65 | 0.71 | 0.83 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.44 | 0.89 | 0.80 |
u6 | Mortar decay | 0.25 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.76 | ||||||
u7 | Peeling off of paint coatings | ||||||||||||
u8 | Falling off of paint coatings | ||||||||||||
u9 | Cracks in bricks | 0.57 | 0.83 | 0.55 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.46 | 0.65 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.06 | 0.30 | 0.28 |
u10 | Cracks on plaster | 0.25 | 0.44 | 0.29 | 0.75 | 0.64 | 0.76 | ||||||
u11 | Scratching on walls | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.20 | |||||||||
u12 | Scratching on plaster | 0.75 | 0.39 | 0.80 | |||||||||
u13 | Loosening of plaster | ||||||||||||
u14 | Falling off of plaster sheets | ||||||||||||
u15 | Dampness | 0.00 | 0.66 | 1.00 | 0.08 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.65 | 0.13 | 0.67 | 0.96 |
u16 | Weeping | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.91 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.36 |
u17 | Biological corrosion of bricks | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.84 | |||
u18 | Fungus | ||||||||||||
u19 | Mold and rot | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 | |||
u20 | Corrosion raid of steel beams | 0.13 | 0.60 | 0.70 | |||||||||
u21 | Surface corrosion of steel beams | 0.52 | 0.71 | 0.78 | |||||||||
u22 | Deep corrosion of steel beams | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.43 | |||||||||
u23 | Flooding with water | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 | |||||||||
u24 | Dynamic sensitivity of floor beams | ||||||||||||
u25 | Deformations of wooden beams | ||||||||||||
u26 | Skewing of window joinery | ||||||||||||
u27 | Warping of window joinery | ||||||||||||
u28 | Delamination of wooden elements | ||||||||||||
u29 | Partial insect infestation of wooden elements | ||||||||||||
u30 | Complete insect infestation of wooden elements | ||||||||||||
No. of Damage | Name of Damage | Probability of Damage (u) that Corresponds to the II, III, and IV Maintenance Conditions of an Element | |||||||||||
Z8–Inter-Story Wooden Floors | Z9–Stairs | Z10–Roof Construction | Z13–Window Joinery | ||||||||||
p(u)II | p(u)III | p(u)IV | p(u)II | p(u)III | p(u)IV | p(u)II | p(u)III | p(u)IV | p(u)II | p(u)III | p(u)IV | ||
u1 | Mechanical damage | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.88 | 0.85 | 1.00 | ||||||
u2 | Leaks | 0.88 | 0.92 | 1.00 | |||||||||
u3 | Brick losses | 0.65 | 0.86 | 0.75 | |||||||||
u4 | Mortar losses | ||||||||||||
u5 | Brick decay | ||||||||||||
u6 | Mortar decay | ||||||||||||
u7 | Peeling off of paint coatings | ||||||||||||
u8 | Falling off of paint coatings | ||||||||||||
u9 | Cracks in bricks | ||||||||||||
u10 | Cracks on plaster | ||||||||||||
u11 | Scratching on walls | ||||||||||||
u12 | Scratching on plaster | 0.74 | 0.92 | 0.75 | |||||||||
u13 | Loosening of plaster | 0.44 | 0.57 | 0.63 | |||||||||
u14 | Falling off of plaster sheets | ||||||||||||
u15 | Dampness | 0.78 | 0.95 | 0.75 | 0.08 | 0.60 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.96 | |||
u16 | Weeping | 0.39 | 0.76 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 0.17 | 0.29 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.74 |
u17 | Biological corrosion of bricks | ||||||||||||
u18 | Fungus | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.63 | |||||||||
u19 | Mold and rot | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.22 | |||||||||
u20 | Corrosion raid of steel beams | 0.06 | 0.82 | 0.91 | |||||||||
u21 | Surface corrosion of steel beams | 0.06 | 0.45 | 0.88 | |||||||||
u22 | Deep corrosion of steel beams | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.28 | |||||||||
u23 | Flooding with water | ||||||||||||
u24 | Dynamic sensitivity of floor beams | 0.59 | 0.70 | 0.50 | |||||||||
u25 | Deformations of wooden beams | 0.30 | 0.43 | 0.38 | |||||||||
u26 | Skewing of window joinery | 0.41 | 0.81 | 0.93 | |||||||||
u27 | Warping of window joinery | 0.35 | 0.69 | 0.56 | |||||||||
u28 | Delamination of wooden elements | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.63 | |||||||||
u29 | Partial insect infestation of wooden elements | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.19 | |||
u30 | Complete insect infestation of wooden elements | 0.07 | 0.43 | 0.63 | 0,00 | 0.33 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
No. of Damage | Name of Damage | Probability of Damage (u) that Corresponds to the II, III, and IV Maintenance Conditions of an Element | |||||||||||
Z15–Inner Plasters | Z20–Facades | ||||||||||||
p(u)II | p(u)III | p(u)IV | p(u)II | p(u)III | p(u)IV | ||||||||
u1 | Mechanical damage | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.73 | 0.78 | ||||||
u2 | Leaks | ||||||||||||
u3 | Brick losses | ||||||||||||
u4 | Mortar losses | ||||||||||||
u5 | Brick decay | ||||||||||||
u6 | Mortar decay | 0.40 | 0.81 | 0.95 | 0.59 | 0.86 | 0.96 | ||||||
u7 | Peeling off of paint coatings | 0.90 | 0.76 | 0.86 | 0.59 | 0.91 | 0.96 | ||||||
u8 | Falling off of paint coatings | 0.20 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.30 | ||||||
u9 | Cracks in bricks | ||||||||||||
u10 | Cracks on plaster | 0.50 | 0.78 | 0.91 | 0.41 | 0.86 | 1.00 | ||||||
u11 | Scratching on walls | ||||||||||||
u12 | Scratching on plaster | 0.30 | 0.78 | 0.86 | 0.35 | 0.59 | 1.00 | ||||||
u13 | Loosening of plaster | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.89 | ||||||
u14 | Falling off of plaster sheets | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.22 | ||||||
u15 | Dampness | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 | ||||||
u16 | Weeping | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 | ||||||
u17 | Biological corrosion of bricks | ||||||||||||
u18 | Fungus | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | ||||||
u19 | Mold and rot | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||
u20 | Corrosion raid of steel beams | ||||||||||||
u21 | Surface corrosion of steel beams | ||||||||||||
u22 | Deep corrosion of steel beams | ||||||||||||
u23 | Flooding with water | ||||||||||||
u24 | Dynamic sensitivity of floor beams | ||||||||||||
u25 | Deformations of wooden beams | ||||||||||||
u26 | Skewing of window joinery | ||||||||||||
u27 | Warping of window joinery | ||||||||||||
u28 | Delamination of wooden elements | ||||||||||||
u29 | Partial insect infestation of wooden elements | ||||||||||||
u30 | Complete insect infestation of wooden elements |
Group Number | Building Element | No. of Damage | Name of Damage | Conditional Probabilities of Fuzzy Events According to the Bayes Formula for: | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
the Process of Technical wear (Z) that Corresponds to the II, III and IV Conditions of the Maintenance of an Element in Relation to its Damage (U) / Average Value of the Fuzzy Event (Z) in Relation to the Probabilistic Measure P(Z) | the Occurrence of the Group of Damage (U) that Corresponds to the II, III and IV Conditions of Maintenance of an Element in Relation to the Wear Process (Z) | ||||||||
P(ZII/U)/mp(ZII) | P(ZIII/U)/mp(ZIII) | P(ZIV/U)/mp(ZIV) | P(UII/Z) | P(UIII/Z) | P(UIV/Z) | ||||
Z2 | Foundations | u3 | Brick losses | ||||||
u5 | Brick decay | ||||||||
u9 | Cracks in bricks | ||||||||
u15 | Dampness | 0.2655/0.300 | 0.3957/0.441 | 0.5755/0.600 | 0.0000 | 0.2702 | 0.9586 | ||
u16 | Weeping | ||||||||
u17 | Biological corrosion of bricks | ||||||||
u19 | Mold and rot | ||||||||
Z3 | Basement walls | u3 | Brick losses | ||||||
u4 | Mortar losses | ||||||||
u5 | Brick decay | ||||||||
u6 | Mortar decay | ||||||||
u9 | Cracks in bricks | 0.2879/0.300 | 0.3915/0.429 | 0.5187/0.607 | 0.0000 | 0.5543 | 0.8494 | ||
u10 | Cracks on plaster | ||||||||
u15 | Dampness | ||||||||
u16 | Weeping | ||||||||
u17 | Biological corrosion of bricks | ||||||||
u19 | Mold and rot | ||||||||
Z4 | Solid floors above basements | u3 | Brick losses | ||||||
u5 | Brick decay | ||||||||
u9 | Cracks in bricks | ||||||||
u15 | Dampness | 0.3846/0.270 | 0.3778/0.406 | 0.5173/0.613 | 0.2371 | 0.4577 | 0.6330 | ||
u16 | Weeping | ||||||||
u20 | Corrosion raid of steel beams | ||||||||
u21 | Surface corrosion of steel beams | ||||||||
u22 | Deep corrosion of steel beams | ||||||||
u23 | Flooding with water | ||||||||
Z7 | Structural walls | u3 | Brick losses | ||||||
u4 | Mortar losses | ||||||||
u5 | Brick decay | ||||||||
u6 | Mortar decay | ||||||||
u9 | Cracks in bricks | ||||||||
u10 | Cracks on plaster | 0.3464/0.300 | 0.3999/0.431 | 0.5125/0.626 | 0.0000 | 0.4487 | 1.0000 | ||
u11 | Scratching on walls | ||||||||
u12 | Scratching on plaster | ||||||||
u15 | Dampness | ||||||||
u16 | Weeping | ||||||||
u17 | Biological corrosion of bricks | ||||||||
u19 | Mold and rot | ||||||||
Z8 | Inter-story wooden floors | u12 | Scratching on plaster | ||||||
u13 | Loosening of plaster | ||||||||
u15 | Dampness | ||||||||
u16 | Weeping | 0.3508/0.283 | 0.4401/0.435 | 0.6443/0.636 | 0.0000 | 0.3048 | 0.9615 | ||
u18 | Fungus | ||||||||
u24 | Dynamic sensitivity of floor beams | ||||||||
u25 | Deformations of wooden beams | ||||||||
u30 | Complete insect infestation of wooden elements | ||||||||
Z9 | Stairs | u1 | Mechanical damage | ||||||
u3 | Brick losses | ||||||||
u16 | Weeping | 0.2622/0.268 | 0.4613/0.438 | 0.5842/0.600 | 0.2498 | 0.5828 | 0.6852 | ||
u20 | Corrosion raid of steel beams | ||||||||
u21 | Surface corrosion of steel beams | ||||||||
u22 | Deep corrosion of steel beams | ||||||||
u29 | Partial insect infestation of wooden elements | ||||||||
Z10 | Roof construction | u15 | Dampness | ||||||
u16 | Weeping | ||||||||
u28 | Delamination of wooden elements | 0.2817/0.288 | 0.3510/0.437 | 0.6466/0.630 | 0.0513 | 0.6579 | 0.7999 | ||
u29 | Partial insect infestation of wooden elements | ||||||||
u30 | Complete insect infestation of wooden elements | ||||||||
Z13 | Window joinery | u1 | Mechanical damage | ||||||
u2 | Leaks | ||||||||
u15 | Dampness | ||||||||
u16 | Weeping | ||||||||
u19 | Mold and rot | 0.3275/0.271 | 0.3717/0.423 | 0.5538/0.648 | 0.2130 | 0.4992 | 0.7592 | ||
u26 | Skewing of window joinery | ||||||||
u27 | Warping of window joinery | ||||||||
u29 | Partial insect infestation of wooden elements | ||||||||
u30 | Complete insect infestation of wooden | ||||||||
Z15 | Inner plasters | u1 | Mechanical damage | ||||||
u6 | Mortar decay | ||||||||
u7 | Peeling off of paint coatings | ||||||||
u8 | Falling off of paint coatings | ||||||||
u10 | Cracks on plaster | ||||||||
u12 | Scratching on plaster | 0.3303/0.290 | 0.3579/0.431 | 0.4995/0.648 | 0.1444 | 0.4578 | 0.7792 | ||
u13 | Loosening of plaster | ||||||||
u14 | Falling off of plaster sheets | ||||||||
u15 | Dampness | ||||||||
u16 | Weeping | ||||||||
u18 | Fungus | ||||||||
u19 | Mold and rot | ||||||||
Z20 | Facades | u1 | Mechanical damage | ||||||
u6 | Mortar decay | ||||||||
u7 | Peeling off of paint coatings | ||||||||
u8 | Falling off of paint coatings | ||||||||
u10 | Cracks on plaster | ||||||||
u12 | Scratching on plaster | 0.2854/0.253 | 0.3670/0.450 | 0.6299/0.641 | 0.1250 | 0.3623 | 0.9012 | ||
u13 | Loosening of plaster | ||||||||
u14 | Falling off of plaster sheets | ||||||||
u15 | Dampness | ||||||||
u16 | Weeping | ||||||||
u18 | Fungus | ||||||||
u19 | Mold and rot |
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Konior, J.; Stachoń, T. Bayes Conditional Probability of Fuzzy Damage and Technical Wear of Residential Buildings. Appl. Sci. 2021, 11, 2518. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11062518
Konior J, Stachoń T. Bayes Conditional Probability of Fuzzy Damage and Technical Wear of Residential Buildings. Applied Sciences. 2021; 11(6):2518. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11062518
Chicago/Turabian StyleKonior, Jarosław, and Tomasz Stachoń. 2021. "Bayes Conditional Probability of Fuzzy Damage and Technical Wear of Residential Buildings" Applied Sciences 11, no. 6: 2518. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11062518
APA StyleKonior, J., & Stachoń, T. (2021). Bayes Conditional Probability of Fuzzy Damage and Technical Wear of Residential Buildings. Applied Sciences, 11(6), 2518. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11062518