2.1. Collecting Data for the Study
The following optimal theoretical research methods were selected to solve the tasks of the research project: expert survey, system analysis, qualimetry, statistical analysis, systems engineering in the construction industry, experimental design theory, and robust methods in statistics.
System analysis was employed in the process of justifying the need to solve the research tasks. This is how the authors developed unified approaches, outlined stages of research, and described the process of planning and implementing an experiment. The main principles and approaches of systems engineering in the construction industry were formulated to develop an IQI for multi-storey residential buildings.
Qualimetry analysis has several stages:
Calculation of the required number of experts;
Group selection;
Identification of the construction facility properties that affect quality, and their further structuring as a hierarchical tree, taking into account the importance characteristics of each property;
Using methods of mathematical statistics to process the results.
In the course of planning an experiment that involves a construction facility, any information about it must be carefully studied so that reliable information can be obtained. Regardless of what these factors are, they should have a whole set of features required for the best possible experiment. The availability of a number of factors, varying at several levels, can ensure the following factor-based experiment:
where M is the number of levels of variation, and k is the number of factors.
Hence, the emerging complexities and the scale of production processes underway in the construction industry make this schedule quite problematic to implement. Therefore, to solve this problem during the construction of the matrix, we reduced the number of factors, using factor analysis, as well as D-optimal schedules whose characteristics are similar. Materials for the factor analysis are correlation relationships, Pearson correlation criteria, which can be calculated using variable factors.
Robust procedures should be employed to process the expert data. Here, the following approach was used: in the first stage, “atypical” observations were identified and excluded; in the second stage, the least square method was applied to remaining observations. The “trimmed mean of the pre-set level” was used as a robust procedure. The level of 5% was taken. This means that sufficiently effective and reliable estimates are ensured, if about 5% of “atypical observations” are present in the sampling.
The above methods and principles serve as the basis for this experiment and the mathematical model developed using the most significant factors.
2.2. Launching an Expert Survey
Analysis of the sources, written by foreign and Russian experts, helped to identify the main parameters influencing the quality of a construction product at different stages of its lifecycle:
Initial permits (IP).
Engineering surveys.
Project documentation (PD).
Corporate structure.
Equipment and materials used.
Construction and installation works.
Executive and other documents that need to be issued in order to put the facility into operation, to undergo an examination for compliance with approved standards [
29,
30,
31].
The research work was divided into two phases: the first identified groups of factors that could have a great impact on the quality of high-rise residential buildings, while the second evaluated the impact of each factor considered separately; how they interact with and influence each other.
The use of the expert survey method allowed the authors to obtain initial information for the first phase of the study; hence, only those factors which had a strong impact on the quality of high-rise residential buildings were considered.
The expert survey was launched among construction industry specialists; 113 experts participated in the selection procedure pursuant to the competence requirements applied to each expert [
32].
The authors selected professional experts who had the necessary qualifications and experience in this area. They included directors of construction enterprises, professional builders experienced in the construction of various purpose buildings; chief engineers of construction companies, engaged in design and quality control (the register of builders is available on the NOSTROI (National Association of Builders) website, and the register of designers and surveyors is maintained by the National Association of Designers and Surveyors).
Initially, each expert was asked to give a yes/no answer to the question as to whether any of the factors considered by the authors had any impact on the quality of a multi-storey residential building.
After studying and analyzing the research literature, the authors concluded that, of all the factors studied, the quality and safety of the construction of multi-storey residential buildings were most influenced by the following characteristics:
Engineering specifications for construction facilities (P1);
Reliable and sufficient pre-construction surveying reports (reports on engineering-geodesic, engineering-geological, engineering-ecological, engineering-hydrological surveys, etc.) (P2);
Compliance of design solutions with the requirements of construction regulations, state standards, and other regulatory documents in effect at the time of the building examination (P3);
Full compliance of materials and equipment with regulatory and design documentation requirements (P4)
Compliance with administrative and engineering solutions (P5);
Compliance with the sequence of works (P6);
Geotechnical monitoring (P7);
Availability of hoisting machinery (P8);
Number of employees, including specialists, with sufficient work experience and appropriate qualifications (P9);
Application of industrial formwork systems (P10);
Application of advanced engineering machinery (
P11) [
33].
The expert survey method enabled the authors to identify indexes of importance of duly selected parameters, and they consequently decided to choose the widely spread method known as ranking (or the questionnaire method) (
Table 1). The questionnaire was compiled with due regard for all the features of the construction industry [
34,
35,
36]. In the process of studying the questions and completing the questionnaire, each of the experts was instructed to assign a score of 1 to 11 to each factor to identify their significance and establish their impact on the quality of work.
The expert questionnaire enabled the identification of the eight most significant factors. The remaining three were rejected due to the acceptable loss of information (the total influence of which did not exceed 5%).
Consistency of expert opinions was evaluated using the concordance coefficient:
where n is the number of factors (11),
m is the number of experts (113),
a is the matrix of experts’ opinions.
Further, according to the findings of the expert questionnaire, the most significant eight parameters, having the greatest influence on the quality of a construction facility, were identified:
Specifications for construction facilities (P1);
Reliable and sufficient materials, including engineering surveys (P2);
Compliance with administrative and engineering solutions (P5);
Compliance with the sequence of work procedures (P6);
Geotechnical monitoring (P7);
Availability of hoisting machinery (P8);
Use of industrial formwork systems (P10);
Use of advanced engineering machinery (P11).
The presence of eight factors, changing at three levels, entails the following factor-based experiment:
where 3 is the number of levels of variability,
k is the number of factors.
According to the results of the analysis of the intercorrelation matrix, we can identify four groups of interrelated variables (z1, z2, z3 and z4):
First group z1: facility specifications (P1) and work sequence compliance (P6);
Second group z2: reliable and sufficient materials, including all sections on engineering surveys (P2) and geotechnical monitoring (P7);
Third group z3: compliance with the requirements of administrative and engineering solutions (P5) and availability of hoisting machinery (P8);
Fourth group z4: use of industrial formwork systems (P10) and advanced engineering machinery (P11).
The significance of all groups of factors was determined using the dispersion index of factor loading and factors.
To calculate the value of group zi, we need to find the total sum of squares of loading of each of x1 factors in all columns of the factor matrix.
Their importance characteristics indicate how much dispersion the particular group
zi takes up in the intercorrelation matrix. The values of Y(
zi) and
zi are shown in
Table 2.
This means that as a result of factorization of the intercorrelation matrix, some of the original information was “sacrificed” due to the construction of the four-factor model. As a result, 16% of the information was lost.
This calculation error is acceptable, because the research findings show that the four-factor model allows the reduction of the number of experiments.
The most significant group is group z2.
This expert survey determines the importance of each individual factor for the evaluation of the quality of multi-storey residential buildings. Pairwise correlation solves the local problem of research in two stages, which ultimately means a reduction in the number of trials in an experiment needed to obtain the desired model.
The four groups of interrelated variables (z1; z2; z3; z4) are the result of the process of establishing correlations between the parameters.
2.3. Mathematical Model
It was found that there are four effective factors (z1, z2, z3, z4) which significantly affect the response function Y.
As a consequence, the experiment was multifactorial. Given that the model is statistical and the processes under study are of probabilistic nature, it is evident that the response function Y obeys the correlation dependence on factors zi influencing it. This then leads to the identification of a series of different values as the output parameter if the value of the factor is non-variable.
In this regard, the purpose of this multi-factor experiment was to find a mathematical model that is a regression equation that adequately describes the experiment results.
In the present study, in order to perform the experiment, it was necessary to identify the number of trials (as well as the conditions under which they should be performed), adequate to solve the problems with sufficient accuracy. The theory of scheduling can be used to solve this problem.
In this way, the cost and time of experiments can be minimized and, if necessary, the mathematical model can be upgraded without losing the available information. Experiment scheduling helps to effectively solve a number of vital problems in the course of experiments by:
Minimizing the total number of experiments;
Applying appropriate algorithms to simultaneously change variables that determine the process;
Using a special mathematical apparatus that formalizes the experimenter’s actions;
Choosing the strategy that enables researchers to make sufficiently informed decisions;
Drafting appropriate experiment schedules to avoid correlation between regression equation coefficients.
The following minor problems must be identified and solved to use the experiment scheduling method:
Identify a combination of groups of factors and a number of these combinations to determine response functions;
Determine the response function accuracy;
Determine coefficients for a regression equation;
Use the resulting response function to find the most efficient values of the y function.
To build an effective mathematical model, ranges of factor changes must be found, because they determine the area of values of objective function Y.
In this case, the search for a solution was limited to the factor space restricted by the coordinate axes of each factor. Hence, factors should be converted into dimensionless values (which are encoded):
where z
i is the encoded value of the factor,
z
i is the value of the factor (
i) in the natural scale.
Each of the encoded factors z
i can only take certain values equal to −1; 0 or +1. In other words, the scheduling area is a hypercube (
Figure 1) with the following parameters:
Here i = 1, 2, 3, 4.
Figure 1.
The hypercube factor space formed by four factors.
Figure 1.
The hypercube factor space formed by four factors.
At the same time, factors must meet certain criteria: they must have a significant impact on the final IQI value, have an unambiguous description, and vary qualitatively at all three levels: the lower level (encoded value = −1), the main level (encoded value = 0), and the upper level (encoded value = +1).
Following experts’ consultations with and contributions from construction specialists, eight main factors meeting the above criteria could be identified.
By analyzing the information and systematizing the data, the levels of variation can also be qualitatively interpreted.
Factors that may have different variants, identified through cooperation and questioning of construction specialists, help to recognize the administrative and engineering solutions needed for the successful construction of high-rise residential buildings. It is only necessary to identify the type of functional dependence between them and the process mentioned in the research after the mathematical model is duly made. The coded values of the factors are presented in
Table 3.
The qualitative interpretation of variation levels is presented in
Table 4 according to the results of data analysis and systematization.
A regression analysis was employed to find the mathematical formulas that best describe the experimental data.
The mathematical theory of experiment scheduling should be used to find the coefficients of regression equations. It allows managing the course of an experiment as effectively as possible to obtain the most reliable information using the minimum acceptable amount of experimental data.
Experiment scheduling is a procedure for selecting the number of trials and their conditions that are sufficient to solve the problem with the required accuracy.
A linear model was used as a regression model. Here groups z1, z2, z3, and z4 were selected as factors. The next model under consideration is a quadratic one. Here groups z1, z2, z3, and z4, as well as their squares, were used as factors.
To identify the right number of experiments the authors developed a plan in compliance with indexes of optimality of the number of experiments, which was designated as N.
To reduce the number of experiments the authors used a D-optimal composite three-level plan. This plan includes trials made within the framework of a full parametric experiment, and it also includes other trials in the centre of the plan and in the “star points”, located directly on the axes of the fallacious space. A questionnaire was compiled to collect the necessary information. In this questionnaire, a group of experts made an assessment using a scoring system in the range of 0 to 100 with an interval of 5 points. They checked the quality of multi-storey residential buildings, or a combination of constituent parameters. As a result, average values of the experts’ assessments were subjected to stratification using a composite plan for each point.
A sample questionnaire was developed by the authors. Ten groups of experts were to rate the value of IQI of multi-storey residential buildings in conditional points from 0 to 100 with the interval of “5” in compliance with each of the 25 possible variants of the plan. Columns Y1,..., Y10 are assessments of 25 plan components made by the members of these groups. The results of the expert survey are presented in
Table 5.
A robust approach was used to process the expert survey findings. Robust procedures are often used to process these data. The following approach was used in this work: at the first stage, “atypical” observations were identified and excluded; at the second stage, the least squares method was applied to the remaining observations. The procedure of the “trimmed mean of the pre-set level” was used as the robust one. A 5% level was employed as it provides sufficiently effective and reliable assessments if about 5% of “atypical observations” are available in the sampling.
The following table (
Table 6) was obtained to calculate parameters of regression models.
The following models were obtained:
Y. Linear model. General view of the formula for evaluating the coefficients of the regression model:
where a is the matrix of expert assessments,
y is the vector of errors.
Y is the size vector of expert assessments obtained using the robust method.
Regression statistics using a linear model are presented in
Table 7.
The following dependence was obtained:
With a confidence probability of 0.95 (p-value is less than 0.05) all coefficients are significant (according to Student’s test).
The coefficient of determination of the model is 0.879, which confirms its high adequacy.
It should be noted that the closer the coefficient of determination to 1, the better the model approximates the data.
Regression statistics using the quadratic model are presented in
Table 8.
The following dependence was obtained:
Only coefficients of linear terms are significant (according to the Student’s test, coefficients at the squares have a level of confidence less than the generally accepted value of 0.95).
The coefficient of determination of the model is 0.925, which confirms its high adequacy (according to the Fisher’s test, significance is 2.0448 × 105).
- 2.
General quadratic model
Regression statistics using the general quadratic model are presented in
Table 9.
The following dependence was obtained:
Only coefficients of linear terms were significant (according to the Student’s test, coefficients at squares and products of factors have a level of confidence less than the generally accepted value of 0.95).
The coefficient of determination of the model is 0.965, which confirms its high adequacy (the significance is 0.000481547according to the Fisher’s test).
The authors believe that the general quadratic model (the coefficient of determination is 0.965) is the most adequate.
The mathematical model allows adjustments to achieve the desired levels of reliability, quality, and durability at any stage of any construction project.
The use of the mathematical model, which conveys the essence of the phenomenon considered here, is the optimal solution; it successfully predicts and evaluates the impact of individual factors on the IQI [
37,
38,
39,
40,
41,
42].
In our further calculations, the IQI, determined by its parameters, rather than groups of factors, will be referred to as IQI.
To obtain a detailed mathematical model based on a particular functional relationship, allowing to calculate IQI values, the factor systems modelling technique was used:
where
Wi is the coefficient of importance (weight) of the
i-th parameter.
The resulting model not only fully characterizes the process of studying the IQI, but can be modernized to complicate or simplify the process.
The analysis of dependence between the IQI and the studied group of factors can be presented in a graphical form. To this end, a three-dimensional graph of the surface of the obtained regression equation must be created, depending on different groups of factors. Considering that there are four factors, it was convenient to study the obtained surfaces by alternating a combination of two active factors when the other two are in a fixed position. In this case, it became a series of six dependencies in a graph which describes the alternating influence of two groups of factors on changes in IQI The nature of the change in CPR from the influence of two groups of factors z1, z2 is reflected in
Figure 2, the nature of the change in CPR from the influence of two groups of factors z1, z3 is reflected in
Figure 3. For example:
The combined effect of factors z
1 and z
2 has a moderate effect on the value of IQI, and ensures the linear nature of processes that are underway.
When studying the joint influence of factors z1 and z3 on the value of integrated index IQI = f (z1, z3), linear dependence on z1 and z3 prevails, although a more pronounced quadratic dependence on factor z3 was observed.
Similar graphs were obtained for other variables.
The final stage of data collection and structuring was the measurement of values of potential states of parameters, determined using parameter weights. The method of variation series was applied to find the weights of parameters. The process of determining the values of potential states of parameters followed the process of determining the value of parameter weights. Groups of experts using the analysis of hierarchies method created a table of parameters which allows evaluating the current state and effectiveness of administrative and engineering solutions. After obtaining a dimensionless discrete value for its qualitative interpretation in the course of constructing a multi-storey residential building, the “use of quantitative ranges of values of the generalized Harrington’s desirability function” must be adapted. Since the quantitative range of values, having such qualitative interpretations as “good” and “very good”, “bad” and “very bad”, has the same meaning for construction, they should be combined. The final table of the qualitative interpretation of the discrete evaluation of the quality of multi-storey residential buildings is presented as
Table 10.
Description of a method of integrated assessment of the quality of multi-storey residential buildings followed the development of integrated quality assessment and IQI calculation algorithms:
Monitoring of administrative and engineering solutions, involved in the process of construction of multi-storey residential buildings, factoring in their compliance with the current standards;
Correlation between administrative and engineering solutions, considering parameters, provided in the tabular form;
Determination of the IQI for a multi-storey residential building;
The obtained value duly correlates with the tabulated data on the qualitative interpretation of discrete evaluation as well as with the qualitative evaluation of administrative and engineering solutions.
If the quality evaluation is unsatisfactory, the following method can be employed:
The algorithm for calculating and improving the IQI is shown in
Figure 4.