Research on an Evaluation Method of Snowdrift Hazard for Railway Subgrades
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Factors
- Environment
- 2.
- Snowfield
- 3.
- Windfield
- 4.
- Subgrade design parameters
2.2. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Model
2.3. Establishment of the FCE Model
- Step 1: Establish the factor set, U.
- 2.
- Step 2: Establish the annotation set V
- 3.
- Step 3: Determine the weight vector W.
- (1)
- Normalize the column elements of the matrix
- (2)
- Sum the elements of each normalized column
- (3)
- Normalize the vector obtained from the previous step
- 4.
- Step 4: Calculate the single-factor membership degree
- (1)
- Ridge distribution.
- (2)
- Trapezoidal distribution.
- 5.
- Step 5: Establish the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix
2.4. Determination of the Evaluation Weights
2.5. Validation of the Evaluation Results
3. Project Overview and Results
3.1. Wind Speed and Direction Characteristics
3.2. Snow Accumulation Characteristics
3.3. Risk Indicator Weights
- The judgment matrix for the first-level indicators is as follows:
- 2.
- The judgment matrix for the second-level indicators is as follows:
3.4. Risk Assessment Results
- DK27 + 600 Hazardous Fuzzy Judgment Set:
- 2.
- DK65 + 900 Hazardous Fuzzy Judgment Set:
- 3.
- DK135 + 200 Hazardous Fuzzy Judgment Set:
- 4.
- DK198 + 200Hazardous Fuzzy Judgment Set:
3.5. Accuracy Evaluation
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
- Among the factors affecting the risk of snowdrift disasters on railway subgrades, four primary contributing metrics were selected: on-site environmental conditions, regional snowfield conditions, regional windfield conditions, and subgrade design parameters. Then, 11 underlying indicators were defined, and a “5-level” evaluation system for the risk of snowdrift disasters on railway subgrades was established. Through calculations, the risk levels of snowdrift disasters along the Afu Railway line were determined.
- In the weight distribution of the snowdrift disaster risk on railway subgrades, it was found that among the first-level metrics, regional snowfield conditions and subgrade design parameters have a significant impact on the risk of snowdrift disasters, with weights of 26.81% and 40.53%, respectively. Among the secondary indicators, the depth of cuttings and average snow depth have a considerable impact on the risk of snowdrift disasters to the railway subgrade, with weights of 29.04% and 15.09%, respectively.
- During the evaluation process, individual indicator evaluation values from typical work points were substituted into the corresponding membership functions to obtain the membership degree values for the indicators at these work points. Subsequently, through fuzzy calculations and normalization processing, the hazard degree of each typical work point was determined. Moreover, by fixing the relevant parameters within the region according to regional characteristics and only considering changes in the form of the subgrade structure, the calculations were simplified.
- The scientific and systematic hazard assessment method developed in this research offers foundational data and theoretical support for future studies. It provides relevant departments with a scientific basis for formulating effective countermeasures, ultimately enhancing the safety and reliability of railway operations. Additionally this assessment method serves as a valuable guide for the risk evaluation of snowdrift disasters on railways, informing the design of railway subgrades and the development of disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Primary Indicators | Secondary Indicators | Risk Assessment Criteria | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Level I | Level II | Level III | Level IV | Level V | ||
Environment (U1) | Topographic slope (U11) | Flat | Gentle hill | Average hill | Steep hill | Mountainous area |
Vegetational cover (U12) | Dense | Moderate | Medium | Thin | No vegetation | |
Snowfield (U2) | The average snow thickness/cm (U21) | H < 10 | 10 ≤ H < 20 | 20 ≤ H < 30 | 30 ≤ H < 40 | H ≥ 40 |
Annual snowfall/mm (U22) | a < 200 | 200 ≤ a < 400 | 400 ≤ a < 800 | 800 ≤ a < 1200 | a ≥ 1200 | |
Snow duration/h (U23) | T < 6 | 6 ≤ T < 12 | 12 ≤ T < 18 | 18 ≤ T < 24 | T ≥ 24 | |
Windfield (U3) | Wind direction (U31) | Parallel with the line | Angle to the line | Angle to the line | Angle to the line | Angle to the line |
Mean wind velocity/m/s (U32) | V < 1 | 1 ≤ V < 2 | 2 ≤ V < 3 | 3 ≤ V < 4 | V ≥ 4 | |
Maximum wind velocity/m/s (U33) | Vm < 3 | 3 ≤ Vm < 5 | 5 ≤ Vm < 7 | 7 ≤ Vm < 9 | Vm ≥ 9 | |
Wind duration/h (U34) | T < 6 | 6 ≤ T < 12 | 12 ≤ T < 18 | 18 ≤ T < 24 | T ≥ 24 | |
Subgrade design parameters (U4) | Embankment height/m (U41) | h ≥ 5 | 4 ≤ h < 5 | 3 ≤ h < 4 | 2 ≤ h < 3 | h < 2 |
Cutting depth/m (U42) | h ≥ 8 | 7 ≤ h < 8 | 5 ≤ h < 7 | 3 ≤ h < 5 | h < 3 |
n | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.90 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.45 |
V | Effectiveness of the Maximum Membership Principle |
---|---|
+∞ | Complete response |
[1,+∞) | Very effective |
[0.5,1) | Effective |
[0,0.5) | Low efficiency |
0 | Completely invalid |
Time | New Snow Density/(g·cm−3) |
---|---|
13 November 2017 | 0.133 |
15 December 2018 | 0.143 |
26 February 2019 | 0.146 |
21 December 2019 | 0.151 |
19 November 2020 | 0.138 |
21 January 2021 | 0.136 |
Level | The First Level | The Second Level | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pu | Pu1 | Pu2 | Pu3 | Pu4 | |
CR | 0.008 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.052 |
Evaluating Indicator | Index Evaluation Value | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DK27 + 600 | DK65 + 900 | DK135 + 200 | DK198 + 200 | ||
Qualitative indicators | Topographic slope (U11) | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Vegetational cover (U12) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Wind direction (U31) | 75 | 80 | 65 | 85 | |
The average snow thickness (U21) | 25 | 50 | 65 | 45 | |
Quantitative indicators | Annual snowfall (U22) | 1148 | 1148 | 1148 | 1148 |
Snow duration (U23) | 14.6 | 16.2 | 14.2 | 9.4 | |
Mean wind velocity (U32) | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 3.2 | |
Maximum wind velocity (U33) | 8.7 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 13.5 | |
Wind duration (U34) | 2.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 7.2 | |
Embankment height (U41) | 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | |
Cutting depth (U42) | 0 | 1.5 | 5.8 | 0 |
Index | Index Membership | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
I | II | III | IV | V | |
Topographic slope (U11) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vegetational cover (U12) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Wind direction (U31) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The average snow thickness (U21) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Annual snowfall (U22) | 0 | 0 | 0.5027 | 0.4972 | 0 |
Snow duration (U23) | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Mean wind velocity (U32) | 0 | 0.4966 | 0.5034 | 0 | 0 |
Maximum wind velocity (U33) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4931 | 0.5068 |
Wind duration (U34) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Embankment height (U41) | 0 | 0 | 0.5034 | 0.4965 | 0 |
Cutting depth (U42) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Index | Index Membership | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
I | II | III | IV | V | |
Topographic slope (U11) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vegetational cover (U12) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Wind direction (U31) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The average snow thickness (U21) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Annual snowfall (U22) | 0 | 0 | 0.4918 | 0.5082 | 0 |
Snow duration (U23) | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Mean wind velocity (U32) | 0 | 0.5102 | 0.4897 | 0 | 0 |
Maximum wind velocity (U33) | 0 | 0 | 0.4886 | 0.5114 | 0 |
Wind duration (U34) | 0.5109 | 0.4891 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Embankment height (U41) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cutting depth (U42) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Index | Index Membership | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
I | II | III | IV | V | |
Topographic slope (U11) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vegetational cover (U12) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Wind direction (U31) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The average snow thickness (U21) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Annual snowfall (U22) | 0 | 0 | 0.5055 | 0.4945 | 0 |
Snow duration (U23) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Mean wind velocity (U32) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Maximum wind velocity (U33) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Wind duration (U34) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Embankment height (U41) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cutting depth (U42) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Index | Index Membership | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
I | II | III | IV | V | |
Topographic slope (U11) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vegetational cover (U12) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Wind direction (U31) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The average snow thickness (U21) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Annual snowfall (U22) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Snow duration (U23) | 0 | 0.4958 | 0.5041 | 0 | 0 |
Mean wind velocity (U32) | 0 | 0 | 0.4931 | 0.5069 | 0 |
Maximum wind velocity (U33) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Wind duration (U34) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Embankment height (U41) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Cutting depth (U42) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Position | Maximum Membership | The Second Largest Membership Degree | n | α | Effectiveness |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DK27 + 600 | 0.3749 | 0.1740 | 5 | 0.63 | Effective |
DK65 + 900 | 0.4772 | 0.1507 | 5 | 1.15 | Very effective |
DK135 + 200 | 0.4349 | 0.261 | 5 | 0.56 | Effective |
DK198 + 200 | 0.402 | 0.157 | 5 | 0.80 | Effective |
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Qiu, S.; Bai, M.; Lin, D.; Zhang, Y.; Xia, H.; Fan, J.; Zhou, W.; Tang, Z. Research on an Evaluation Method of Snowdrift Hazard for Railway Subgrades. Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 7247. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14167247
Qiu S, Bai M, Lin D, Zhang Y, Xia H, Fan J, Zhou W, Tang Z. Research on an Evaluation Method of Snowdrift Hazard for Railway Subgrades. Applied Sciences. 2024; 14(16):7247. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14167247
Chicago/Turabian StyleQiu, Shumao, Mingzhou Bai, Daming Lin, Yufang Zhang, Haoying Xia, Jiawei Fan, Wenjiao Zhou, and Zhenyu Tang. 2024. "Research on an Evaluation Method of Snowdrift Hazard for Railway Subgrades" Applied Sciences 14, no. 16: 7247. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14167247
APA StyleQiu, S., Bai, M., Lin, D., Zhang, Y., Xia, H., Fan, J., Zhou, W., & Tang, Z. (2024). Research on an Evaluation Method of Snowdrift Hazard for Railway Subgrades. Applied Sciences, 14(16), 7247. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14167247