The Effect of Railway Projects Increasing Safety on the Frequency of Occurrences

Featured Application

The presented results are intended for inclusion in the national methodology for the economic evaluation of railway infrastructure projects.

Abstract

This contribution is focused on the presentation of individual research results aimed at evaluating the socio-economic impacts associated with increasing the safety and reliability of the railway transport route. The goal of the research is to propose and subsequently verify an original approach for assessing the impact of the implementation of investment projects, including measures aimed at increasing the safety and reliability of railway transport routes, on the resulting number of occurrences that happen on the railway in the Czech Republic. The proposed procedure is based on several key documents. In addition to already existing national methodologies, these are mainly the database of occurrences managed by the Railway Administration of the Czech Republic, including approximately 1000 occurrences for each year of the evaluated period (2009–2018), and information on 33 projects on the railway transport route, where the effects of their implementation on the overall frequency of occurrences are examined events in the subject location. The output of the research is a methodical approach for assessing the impact of the implementation of projects aimed at increasing the safety and reliability of the railway transport route. We perceive the impact on the occurrences from the point of view of the frequency of their occurrence and from the point of view of the socio-economic impacts that are achieved as a result of the implementation of the projects. From the point of view of the frequency of occurrence, a reduction in its value of 4.63% was found. As part of the research, the impact on the occurrence of extraordinary events is also assessed in the context of the scope of the railway transport route, both with regard to the length of the reconstructed track and also with regard to traffic performance.

1. Introduction

The presented results were processed as part of the research work that took place within the research project “Evaluation of increased safety and reliability of railway infrastructure after its modernization or reconstruction”, which was supported by a grant from the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic.

The economic evaluation of transport constructions is currently generally methodologically enshrined in the Guide to CBA [1], within the framework of the Czech Republic. The detailed evaluation procedure is described in the so-called Departmental Methodology, which was published in 2017 by the Ministry of Transport of the Czech Republic, and which is still continuously updated (the last update took place in 2023) [2,3,4,5]. Various statistical reports on rail transport are also important sources of information. One of the most important documents in this area is, for example, the Transport Yearbook of the Czech Republic, which is published annually by the Ministry of Transport [6]. The basic components of economic evaluation are financial and economic analysis and risk analysis, while the presented research mainly focuses on financial and economic analysis.

The essence of the economic evaluation is to quantify the benefit of the construction implementation for its investor and, in the case of economic analysis, its societal benefits. The issue of evaluating the efficiency of projects implemented on the railway infrastructure is addressed by a number of authors of scientific articles. The key topics in the field of analyzing the efficiency of railway structures are the subject of a background paper [7]. In their work [8], Niu et al. carry out a comparative analysis of systems for evaluating the efficiency of transport construction projects on a sample of 16 countries. The methodological aspects of evaluating the efficiency of projects implemented on the railways are addressed by the authors of the publication [9]. They bring an ecological dimension to the evaluation of the life cycle of complex railway projects. Strelkov et al. in their article [10]. The authors of the paper [11] deal with an interesting analysis of the interaction between technical and economic indicators in an effort to increase the efficiency of operational activities on railways. The subject of the paper [12] is the assessment of the efficiency of control systems with diagnostic functions in railway transport. A very topical topic on which the authors of scientific articles are currently focusing is the issue of high-speed lines. The efficiency of operation of high-speed lines is addressed in the paper [13]. The authors Zhang et al. focus on the impact of high-speed lines on regions and their performance and on their impact on the environment in the center of municipalities [14]. The economy of high-speed lines is also addressed by the authors of the paper [15], in which they address the complex urban-environmental efficiency of these projects in the territory of China. Also interesting is the comparison which is presented by the authors Yang et al. in their contribution [16]. They compare railway and road projects in their work, especially in terms of economic efficiency and emissions of harmful gases. The issue of the influence of the choice of material used for the realization of the railway top on the efficiency of railway constructions, including the impact on greenhouse gas emissions, is the subject of the contribution [17].

However, a substantial part of the research is devoted to the issue of increased safety and reliability of the railway infrastructure after its modernization or reconstruction. At the moment, higher reliability or safety after the implementation of investments is not considered in any way, with the exception of an increase in the level of security of railway crossings. Investments in increasing infrastructure reliability are an integral part of every reconstruction or modernization of a track or station. They consist of investments in modern security equipment, communication equipment or, for example, in electric heating of switches or other technical measures.

In the paper [18], Edkins and Pollock analyze the typical causes of railway incidents on Australian railways with a sample of 112 incidents from 1990 to 1994. The contribution is mainly devoted to the human factor and influences that have the highest share in causing human error, the consequence of which is an occurrence. In their 2007 paper [19], Baysari and colleagues analyze the causes of accidents on Australian railways by analyzing 40 investigation reports using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) tool, concluding that the root cause of 43% of accidents is a defect on the equipment of the railway route due to insufficient supervision or testing. In the case of emergencies caused by the human factor, the main cause is the loss of attention of the driver of the vehicle associated with reduced vigilance and fatigue. Circumstances influencing the human factor in occurrences are further addressed in the contribution by Read et al. [20]. The reliability of the railway and the way to increase it through digitization are subsequently the subjects of the contribution [21].

The article [22], published by Evans, which statistically summarizes the development of occurrences within the EU, Norway, and Switzerland, deals with emergencies on the European railways in the years 1980–2009. In the article [23], Evans addresses the approach to assessing the benefits of some measures to increase railway safety within the EU, the USA, and partly also in Japan, while documenting the low economic profitability of some solutions expressed through the B/C indicator. The reason is the high acquisition costs of automatic train security systems and at the same time the relatively small number of accidents they can prevent. At the same time, however, it points to the fact that each of the accidents that happens on the railway and has human victims is perceived very negatively, which creates pressure for the introduction of safety measures that are not defensible by the standard CBA method. The analysis of 407 railway accidents and their causes is dealt with by Zhou in the article [24], where connections between latent and active faults leading to railway accidents are investigated. Tabaia, in article [25], examines the relationship between education, length of experience, and age in relation to the probability of occurrence of emergency, revealing that there is no directly demonstrable relationship between these factors and the probability of occurrence of an accident; however, he found a connection between level of maintenance and demographic data.

Safety on the railway in the context of its growing importance in the field of suburban transport systems is addressed in the publication [26] by Kim et al. In the publication, they analyze the locations of the most common causes and locations of passenger accidents and at the same time analyze the accident from a demographic point of view. The result is a recommendation to introduce a system of security and transport companies focused especially on critical infrastructure locations and the riskiest parts of the population.

The methodology of the economic evaluation of railway constructions is addressed by Matrai in the article [27], where he examines the difference in the results of the financial and economic analysis carried out ex ante and ex post. In the article, Matrai presents the effects of changes in the assessment methodology of railway constructions in the above-mentioned two cases and, separately, the effects of considering actual costs, transport performance, and macroeconomic indicators instead of the inputs assumed at the time of processing the ex ante assessment. Last but not least, in the case of the modernization of the Sopron–Szombathely–Szentgotthárd line, the economic impact of traffic restrictions during construction is declared, as well as the benefit in the form of higher reliability of rail traffic after the completion of the line modernization. The results show that the increased reliability of rail transport (lower number of train delays) has a non-negligible economic benefit, here specifically EUR 30.9 million, which in the case of this construction is about 15% of the investment costs. It should be considered here that these are non-discounted values and therefore that the overall impact on economic efficiency will not be so significant. At the same time, the results of this research are burdened with a certain amount of uncertainty, because they do not have a sufficient volume of data available, e.g., the data on the average delay of trains after the construction is completed are drawn from only one year, namely, 2011.

Wemakor et al. investigate, in [28], the relationship between rail traffic safety and rail network performance in the context of the UK rail network, using statistical data from 17 transport companies from 2006 to 2016.

Tseng et al., in the study [29], investigate the effects of increased reliability on the results of economic efficiency of railway constructions, while examining these effects on the example of an intercity direct rail connection. According to the conclusions of this study, the increased reliability of rail transport can be a relatively significant benefit of the economic CBA, while it should be emphasized that this is a simplified model of a direct (without transfer) intercity connection.

The background [30] also deals with general contexts associated with the economic analysis of railway projects using the CBA method. In their treatise, Klockner and Toft [31] subsequently declare the necessity of a comprehensive approach including the technical, social, and safety dimensions of modeling the impacts of extraordinary events on a railway transport route.

As part of the research work on the project “Evaluation of increased safety and reliability of the railway infrastructure after its modernization or reconstruction”, the influence of the implementation of specific buildings on the severity and number of occurrences of extraordinary events on the railway transport route is investigated.

The objective of this contribution is to determine the real benefit of the implementation of railway projects involving investments in increasing the safety and reliability of the railway transport route to reduce the occurrence of extraordinary events on the railway transport route and their socio-economic impacts.

Within the presented part of the research, the following research question was formulated:

RQ1: To what extent can the frequency and impact of extraordinary events be reduced through the modernization of the railway infrastructure?

2. Materials and Methods

To evaluate the impact of projects, a database of extraordinary events (MU) on the railway network managed by the Railway Administration (SŽ, s. o.) is available. The database contains data for the entire railway network for 10 years in the period 2009–2018, while each year contains approximately 1100 extraordinary events, which are specified according to various criteria and supplemented with a description containing, among other things, the following:

• Place and time of creation,
• Description of MU,
• Cause of MU,
• Material damage caused by MU,
• Damage to life or health, and
• Train delay.

The mentioned criteria were chosen with regard to the research goal of the project being addressed, i.e., the evaluation of the socio-economic impacts associated with increasing the safety and reliability of the railway transport route. The mentioned criteria sufficiently describe the impacts of occurrences and thus possibly the benefits associated with their reduction.

The total number of data reported for each occurrence varies from year to year. The more recent the data, the more descriptive information they contain. In 2018, the table describing occurrences contains over 100 columns describing occurrences. For each of the years, it is therefore necessary to analyze tens of thousands of cells defining the occurrences.

In order to assess the impact of projects aimed at modernizing the railway transport route on reducing the number and impact of extraordinary events that occur on the railway route, information on the state of extraordinary events in the period before the implementation of the project was used, which was subsequently compared with information on the state of extraordinary events in the period after implementation of the project. For these purposes, a total of 33 projects implemented on the Czech railway were analyzed, and data from the above database of extraordinary events were used to assess the impact of the projects on the number and impact of extraordinary events. An overview of the projects is presented in more detail in the following chapter.

Data on occurrences were analyzed on the lines that were reconstructed as part of the above-mentioned projects. Occurrences appearing at railway crossings were not considered in the aforementioned analysis. In addition, only those occurrences that may arise in connection with insufficient security of the railway transport route in the area of the station or the railway line between stations and at the same time those occurrences that arose as a result of human error were identified as events that can be influenced by the implementation of the new security device. Therefore, the following categories of extraordinary events were considered for the research [32,33]:

A1: collision of railway vehicles resulting in death, injury to the health of at least 5 persons, or extensive damage,

A2: derailment of a railway vehicle resulting in death, injury to the health of at least 5 persons, or extensive damage,

A3: collision of a railway vehicle with an obstacle in the cross-section resulting in death, injury to the health of at least 5 persons, or extensive damage,

B1: collision of railway vehicles with consequences less than a serious accident,

B2: derailment of a railway vehicle with consequences less than a serious accident,

B3: collision of a railway vehicle with an obstacle in the cross-section with consequences less than a serious accident,

C1: collision of railway vehicles with consequences less than a serious accident and an accident,

C2: derailment of a railway vehicle with consequences less than a serious accident and an accident,

C3: collision of a railway vehicle with an obstacle in the cross-section with consequences less than those of a serious accident and an accident,

C6: illegal driving of a railway vehicle behind a sign prohibiting driving with consequences less than those of an accident,

C12: unsecured driving of a railway vehicle with consequences less than an accident,

C16: failure of signaling (security) systems with consequences less than in an accident,

C19: unspecified MU, arising in connection with the movement of a railway vehicle with consequences less than those of an accident.

As part of the presented research, the relationship between the implementation of selected railway projects and the change in the occurrence of extraordinary events was investigated, with the aim of determining the change in the frequency of the occurrence of extraordinary events and their impact on society as a whole—the costs resulting from the loss of human life, injury to health, delays, and last but not least also material damage.

3. Results

The key outputs of the project are the demonstration of the positive effect of projects involving measures to increase the safety and reliability of the railway transport route on reducing the number of extraordinary events occurring on the railway. The outputs are presented in three steps:

• presentation of a sample of projects for impact assessment (see Table 1),
• the effect of the evaluated measures on extraordinary events,
• evaluation of MU within the railway transport route.

The presented results are one of the key outputs of a long-time project entitled “Evaluation of increased safety and reliability of the railway infrastructure after its modernization or reconstruction” financed by the Technological Agency of the Czech Republic. This project was started in 2019. It was formally completed at the end of 2021. However, the implementation of the results and expert discussion are still ongoing. The realization of the research is based on the database of extraordinary events [33]. Due to the start date of work on the project (beginning of 2019), a database from 2011 to 2018 was used to estimate partial outputs. Data from these years were used to determine and calculate a whole range of outputs, which gradually led, among other things, to the evaluation of the average socio-economic impacts of occurrences, which are used, for example, in Table 2 and Table 4. For this reason, the calculations and results presented in this contribution were carried out within the periods defined by the used part of the database of occurrences, i.e., for the period 2011–2018, which was very well mapped and described as part of the research activity. Considering the scope of the evaluated period and the possibility of generalization of the presented conclusions resulting from the analysis, the use of these data does not have a negative impact on the interpretation of the results.

3.1. Presentation of a Sample of Projects for Impact Assessment

Given that the initial statistical data are from 2011 to 2018, projects implemented approximately in the middle of this period were selected for this analysis. The website of the Transport Operational Program served as a source of information about these projects, where 33 projects were selected that reconstructed more than 600 km of tracks.

An overview of the projects that were evaluated is shown below in Table 1 and contains the date of implementation of the individual projects, the total investment costs of the construction including VAT, and the type and number of the track. A more detailed description of the individual projects is not part of this article, but is available on request from the authors. All projects included the reconstruction of security devices.

Table 1. Overview of analyzed projects.

Number	Project	Start	Finish	Investment Costs Incl. VAT	Kind of the Track	Number of the Track
1	Project 1	1 October 2015	31 August 2016	173,136,542	Regional	175
2	Project 2	28 May 2015	30 June 2016	762,536,398	National	280
3	Project 3	15 June 2015	31 January 2016	596,407,370	National	030
4	Project 4	1 June 2015	30 June 2016	1,202,408,201	Regional	323
5	Project 5	7 February 2015	31 August 2015	920,773,676	Regional	173
6	Project 6	3 July 2014	29 July 2016	894,985,703	Regional	183
7	Project 7	1 September 2015	2 January 2016	715,977,853	National	230
8	Project 8	10 September 2015	11 December 2015	464,213,974	National	340
9	Project 9	15 October 2015	12 December 2015	663,232,990	Regional	022
10	Project 10	20 April 2015	13 August 2015	798,625,215	National	280
11	Project 11	1 July 2015	10 December 2015	560,440,328	National	030
12	Project 12	19 October 2011	30 November 2015	281,996,745	Regional	148
13	Project 13	19 October 2015	31 December 2015	20,455,604	National	120
14	Project 14	1 November 2015	1 June 2016	614,288,644	National	024
15	Project 15	20 August 2015	29 July 2016	520,197,091	National	073
16	Project 16	1 July 2015	30 November 2015	690,537,162	National	030
17	Project 17	4 February 2015	4 December 2015	293,624,996	National	251
18	Project 18	1 July 2015	31 August 2015	49,361,529	Regional	281
19	Project 19	16 May 2014	30 November 2015	1,197,333,682	National	030
20	Project 20	1 April 2015	30 November 2015	1,204,890,775	National	238
21	Project 21	1 August 2014	1 July 2015	639,700,109	National	179
22	Project 22	15 March 2014	31 May 2015	898,093,690	Regional	036
23	Project 23	1 March 2014	31 December 2015	1,831,222,723	Regional	194
24	Project 24	1 April 2014	31 December 2015	1,206,483,115	National	220
25	Project 25	17 October 2013	31 December 2015	2,087,008,938	National	011
26	Project 26	30 November 2012	28 February 2015	1,208,429,612	National	090
27	Project 27	26 February 2014	30 October 2015	1,253,063,156	National	220
28	Project 28	1 April 2013	31 December 2015	2,333,583,115	National	220
29	Project 29	12 October 2012	30 October 2013	515,032,795	Regional	325
30	Project 30	1 July 2012	15 August 2015	3,150,052,805	National	170
31	Project 31	15 April 2013	31 December 2015	1,946,428,004	National	220
32	Project 32	5 February 2016	19 June 2017	1,203,211,371	National	292
33	Project 33	25 June 2015	31 May 2017	1,202,365,089	National	310

Table 1. Overview of analyzed projects.

Number	Project	Start	Finish	Investment Costs Incl. VAT	Kind of the Track	Number of the Track
1	Project 1	1 October 2015	31 August 2016	173,136,542	Regional	175
2	Project 2	28 May 2015	30 June 2016	762,536,398	National	280
3	Project 3	15 June 2015	31 January 2016	596,407,370	National	030
4	Project 4	1 June 2015	30 June 2016	1,202,408,201	Regional	323
5	Project 5	7 February 2015	31 August 2015	920,773,676	Regional	173
6	Project 6	3 July 2014	29 July 2016	894,985,703	Regional	183
7	Project 7	1 September 2015	2 January 2016	715,977,853	National	230
8	Project 8	10 September 2015	11 December 2015	464,213,974	National	340
9	Project 9	15 October 2015	12 December 2015	663,232,990	Regional	022
10	Project 10	20 April 2015	13 August 2015	798,625,215	National	280
11	Project 11	1 July 2015	10 December 2015	560,440,328	National	030
12	Project 12	19 October 2011	30 November 2015	281,996,745	Regional	148
13	Project 13	19 October 2015	31 December 2015	20,455,604	National	120
14	Project 14	1 November 2015	1 June 2016	614,288,644	National	024
15	Project 15	20 August 2015	29 July 2016	520,197,091	National	073
16	Project 16	1 July 2015	30 November 2015	690,537,162	National	030
17	Project 17	4 February 2015	4 December 2015	293,624,996	National	251
18	Project 18	1 July 2015	31 August 2015	49,361,529	Regional	281
19	Project 19	16 May 2014	30 November 2015	1,197,333,682	National	030
20	Project 20	1 April 2015	30 November 2015	1,204,890,775	National	238
21	Project 21	1 August 2014	1 July 2015	639,700,109	National	179
22	Project 22	15 March 2014	31 May 2015	898,093,690	Regional	036
23	Project 23	1 March 2014	31 December 2015	1,831,222,723	Regional	194
24	Project 24	1 April 2014	31 December 2015	1,206,483,115	National	220
25	Project 25	17 October 2013	31 December 2015	2,087,008,938	National	011
26	Project 26	30 November 2012	28 February 2015	1,208,429,612	National	090
27	Project 27	26 February 2014	30 October 2015	1,253,063,156	National	220
28	Project 28	1 April 2013	31 December 2015	2,333,583,115	National	220
29	Project 29	12 October 2012	30 October 2013	515,032,795	Regional	325
30	Project 30	1 July 2012	15 August 2015	3,150,052,805	National	170
31	Project 31	15 April 2013	31 December 2015	1,946,428,004	National	220
32	Project 32	5 February 2016	19 June 2017	1,203,211,371	National	292
33	Project 33	25 June 2015	31 May 2017	1,202,365,089	National	310

Typical actions that increase the safety and reliability of railway traffic were within the framework of individual projects, for example, the modernization of track and station security equipment to the category of the third level, including equipment with remote traffic control, the installation of axle computers to determine the clearance of tracks and switches, or the construction of information, communication, or camera systems.

3.2. The Impact of Evaluated Measures on Occurrences

The initial data included in the analysis contain data limited by the period 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2018, excluding the construction period of the buildings in question. The data are spatially limited to the beginning and end of reconstructed track sections.

3.2.1. Average Annual Incidence of Occurrences

As part of the analysis, the above-mentioned 33 projects with total construction costs of CZK 32.1 billion were monitored, the length of the track sections was a total of 552 km. Construction was carried out mainly in 2014–2015.

The average length of the monitored period was 3.72 years prior to the implementation of the construction, with the maximum length slightly over five years (Project 32) and the shortest interval less than a year (Project 12). For detailed information about lengths of periods before the projects’ realization, see Figure 1.

The average length of the monitored period was 3.00 years after construction, with a maximum length of just over five years (Project 29) and the shortest interval of one and a half years (Project 32). For detailed information about lengths of periods after the projects’ realization, see Figure 2.

3.2.2. Determination of an Average Occurrence

In the article Economic impact of occurrences on railways [30], the average societal impacts of individual types of extraordinary events caused by the human factor were determined. The calculation and total amount for individual categories of extraordinary events are shown in

Table 2. Total impacts of extraordinary events by category for the period 2011–2018 (cause—human factor).

Category	Number of Occurrences	Consequences on the Health of People in Total			Train Delays (min)		Financial Impact in Total
		Total Deaths	Total Serious Injuries	Total Minor Injuries	Passenger Train Delays	Freight Train Delays	(CZK, CÚ 2021)
A1	11	2	1	43	10,360,00	913	116,541,074
A2	2	0	0	2	0	0	45,666,786
A3	2	0	3	19	25	0	125,833,889
B1	42	0	5	20	3,549,00	2,251,00	80,788,498
B2	70	0	0	5	16,559,00	3,971,00	138,979,460
B3	18	0	3	10	3,248,00	2,106,00	12,389,192
C1	92	0	0	0	0	0	692,969
C2	450	0	0	0	17,915,00	6,390,00	46,648,040
C3	282	0	0	0	35,351,00	11,209,00	22,545,910
C6	572	0	0	0	76,713,00	28,441,00	12,585,865
C12	105	0	0	0	19,912,00	7,159,00	2,554,216
C19	117	0	0	0	14,571,00	8,166,00	10,188,512

Source: Economic impact of occurrences on railways [32].

.

In order to assess the total societal costs associated with the occurrence of an extraordinary event, it is necessary to assess the economic impacts associated with the death and injury of residents and at the same time express the costs of train delays, for both passengers and cargo.

Society-wide costs (according to the Department’s methodology [2]) expressed at the 2021 price level associated with the following impacts are listed below:

• death amounts to 24,280,219 CZK/person,
• severe injuries amount to 5,878,639 CZK/person,
• minor injuries amount to 758,888 CZK/person.

In order to calculate the cost of delay, it is necessary to know the price of one ton-hour and one person-hour, as well as the average load weight of one freight train and the average occupancy of passenger trains. Data on occupancy and cargo weight are calculated from the Statistical Yearbook of the Czech Railways Group from 2018 [34] and are shown in

Table 3. Transport performance of ČD, a.s.

Item	2016		2017		2018		2019		Average
	PT *	FT **	PT	FT	PT	FT	PT	FT	PT	FT
Train km (mil. train km)	120.3	21.8	122.8	22.6	123.6	24.3	124.0	22.6	122.7	22.8
Gross train km (1000 mil. ton km)	19.4	22.7	19.5	23.3	19.8	25.7	20.3	23.0	19.8	23.7
Goods transport (mil. tons)	X	54.6	X	55.2	X	57.2	X	53.9	X	55.7
Transport performance (mil. ton km)	X	9521	X	10,057	X	11,086	X	9740	X	10,221
Number of passengers (mil. persons)	171.5	X	174.7	X	179.2	X	182.1	X	176.9	X
Transport performance (mil. pass. km)	7380	X	7778	X	8225	X	8685	X	8017	X

Source: Statistical Yearbook of the Czech Railways Group from 2018 [34]. * Passenger Trains. ** Freight Trains.

.

The data show that the average occupancy of a passenger train between 2016 and 2019 was 65.35 persons/train, and the average weight of transported cargo was 442.13 tons/train.

The value of 1 person-hour with equal distribution of trips and 10% representation of working time amounts to 321.00 CZK/hour at the price level of 2021 [3].

The value of 1 ton-hour is 40.38 CZK /ton-hour at the price level of 202 [3].

The sum of society-wide costs associated with emergencies of selected categories, which were caused by the human factor on the railway network of the Czech Republic in the years 2011–2018, amounts to CZK 899,953,468 at the price level of 2021. The average society-wide cost of one emergency event is CZK 510,467, while it is true that the average costs associated with extraordinary events differ significantly within categories A, B, and C.

The average societal cost of one emergency within categories is as follows:

• A—CZK 27,505,865
• B—CZK 2,433,778
• C—CZK 105,670

An overview of the partial impacts of extraordinary events by category is presented in

Table 4. Society-wide costs of extraordinary events in CZK, price level 2021.

Category	Number of Occurrences	Consequences on the Health of People (CZK)	Train Delays (CZK)	Financial Impact (CZK)	Total Costs (CZK)
A1	11	87,071,273	3,893,642	116,541,074	207,505,989
A2	2	1,517,776	0	45,666,786	47,184,563
A3	2	32,054,795	8740	125,833,889	157,897,424
B1	42	44,570,962	1,910,633	80,788,498	127,270,093
B2	70	3,794,441	6,970,892	138,979,460	149,744,794
B3	18	25,224,801	1,762,251	12,389,192	39,376,244
C1	92	0	0	692,969	692,969
C2	450	0	8,164,829	46,648,040	54,812,868
C3	282	0	15,694,683	22,545,910	38,240,593
C6	572	0	35,283,240	12,585,865	47,869,105
C12	105	0	9,091,843	2,554,216	11,646,058
C19	117	0	7,524,256	10,188,512	17,712,768
Total	1763	194,234,048	90,305,009	615,414,411	899,953,468
Average occurrence		110,172	51,222	349,072	510,467

.

3.2.3. Evaluation of the Impact of Building Construction on the Incidence of Occurrences

Within the monitored 33 projects, there were an average of 17.84 occurrences per year before the implementation of the project and 17.01 occurrences per year after the implementation of the project. In both cases, these are only occurrences of selected categories and caused by the human factor. It is therefore possible to state that due to the implementation of measures to increase the safety and reliability of the railway transport route (see Section 3.1), the number of occurrences decreased in the period after the implementation of the project by 4.63% on average.

The annual societal costs associated with these occurrences amounted to an average of 9.11 million CZK/year before the implementation of the constructions. After construction, this value dropped to 8.68 million CZK/year.

After the implementation of most constructions, there is an increase in track speed and, in some cases, an increase in the traffic load. Transport performance within the entire network increased between 2011 and 2018 by 9.08% for passenger transport and by 3.33% for freight transport (Figure 3). The relationship between traffic performance and the frequency of occurrence of emergencies is analyzed in the following part of the article.

3.3. Evaluation of an Occurrence within the Railway Transport Route

The evaluation of occurrences within the railway transport route is carried out from two points of view. First, the occurrence is related to the length of the reconstructed line, and in the second case, the occurrence is related to traffic performance.

3.3.1. Assessment of the Occurrence in Relation to the Length of the Reconstructed Line

The length of the tracked tracks was 552 km, and thus 0.0323 occurrences were accounted for per 1 km of track before the implementation of the project (1 occurrence for every 30,966 km). After the implementation of the project, it was 0.0308 (1 occurrence for every 32,470 km). The costs associated with the occurrence amounted to an average of 15,179 CZK/km of track before the implementation of the construction; after the implementation of the project, a decrease to 14,476 CZK/km of track can be expected.

The length of the reconstructed or modernized line was between 0.6 and 79.72 km within the assessed projects. With an average length of the reconstructed section of 16.74 km per monitored project, the average saving per project is 11,765 CZK/year, with average costs before implementation of 254,066 CZK/year and 242,301 CZK/year after construction.

3.3.2. Assessment of the Occurrence in Relation to Traffic Performance

Traffic performance is a factor significantly affecting the probability of the occurrence. With its increase, the probability of the occurrence should logically increase.

In this part of the contribution, the relationship between the occurrences before and after the completion of the projects is assessed, considering the average increase in traffic performance on the entire railway network of the Czech Republic.

Between 2011 and 2018, transport performance on Czech railways increased from 161 to 173 million train kilometers (see Figure 3), with just under 23% of freight transport performance and the rest passenger transport. In the years 2011–2014, which is the period before the implementation of the project, the average annual traffic performance was 160.8 million train kilometers. In the years 2016–2018, i.e., after the implementation of most of the projects, the average annual transport performance was 168 million train kilometers. The increase between the two monitored periods is therefore 4.52%.

In Section 3.2.3, an average decrease in monitored occurrences by 4.63% was calculated depending on the completion of the track or station reconstruction including the modernization of security equipment. Respecting the idea that there is a direct correlation between traffic performance and the probability of the occurrence on the track while maintaining its traffic technical condition, the decrease caused by the implementation of the monitored projects would be the sum of the increase in traffic performance and the average decrease in the number of occurrences.

When considering the increase in traffic performance within the monitored periods before and after the implementation of the projects, the decrease in the probability of occurrence is as follows: 4.63% + 4.52% = 9.15%.

4. Discussion

From the analyzed data, it can be seen that the implementation of constructions resulted in a decrease in the number of occurrences by 4.63% on average, and when considering the average increase in traffic performance in the monitored period, it is a total of 9.15%. The average societal cost of one occurrence amounts to CZK 511,564 (expressed at the 2021 price level), with the fact that this value will increase over time as a result of GDP growth and thus also the standard of living of the population of the Czech Republic.

The incidence of the occurrence was evaluated based on statistics in relation to the length of the line or its traffic load. The results show that one occurrence occurred every 30,966 km of track, and after track reconstruction there was one occurrence for every 32,470 km of track.

Within the monitored projects, the average length of the reconstructed section was 16.74 km per monitored project. The average savings resulting from the reduction in the probability of the occurrence amounted to an average of 12,804 CZK/year per project, with average socio-economic costs before implementation of CZK 276,509 and CZK 263,705 after construction.

In relation to traffic performance, the average of one occurrence for every 693,725.56 km per year was calculated. After the modernization or reconstruction of the line, one occurrence should occur on average at 726,548.4 km per year.

A suitable topic for the discussion would be a comparison of the achieved results of the presented research with the situation abroad. Scientific publications deal with the issue of occurrences on railways quite widely; however, in most cases, the research is focused on specific aspects causing occurrences, such as unauthorized access to a railway crossing or the influence of the load on selected railway equipment on the occurrence of failures. However, as part of the search, data in the same or similar structure were not found in scientific publications. The presented results can serve as a starting point for further research and a possible international comparison.

As part of the research, an answer was sought to a research question related to investments into rail transport and its safety. To answer the question, current valid methodologies for evaluating of the effectiveness of transport investments [2], the database of extraordinary events [33], and many other sources were used as sources. The research question was formulated as follows:

RQ1: To what extent can the frequency and impact of occurrences be reduced through the modernization of the railway infrastructure?

The evaluation of the research question was carried out on the basis of a comparison of the development of the number of extraordinary events on 33 monitored projects involving the reconstruction of 552 km of railway tracks.

From the analyzed data, it can be seen that the implementation of constructions resulted in a decrease in the number of occurrences by 4.63% on average, and even by 9.15% when considering the average increase in traffic performance in the monitored period.

5. Conclusions

The research and scientific contribution of this paper is the analysis of the methodology for performing the economic evaluation of railway constructions and the definition of essential benefits in terms of societal benefits of railway projects.

Part of the presented results is also an analysis of statistical data related to occurrences on the railway provided by the Railway Administration for the needs of the presented research. The statistical data contain data on occurrences on the railway network from 2009 to 2018, including details describing the date and place of occurrence, the cause of the extraordinary event and, last but not least, the damage caused by each extraordinary event.

The presented research examines the influence of the implementation of selected railway projects on the change in the occurrence of extraordinary events in connection with the length of the reconstructed section and the traffic performance realized on the affected infrastructure. The key problem that the presented research solves and at the same time the key research gap that the authors try to fill with the help of the research results consists of the lack of current methodological procedures that do not allow considering, in the economic evaluation of railway investment projects, the effect of the implementation of specific measures to reduce the number of occurrences in the addressed section. Together with the previously defined average impacts of extraordinary events (510,467 CZK/occurrence) and the average annual reduction in the number of extraordinary events (by an average of 4.63%), it is possible to determine the expected benefit associated with the implementation of a project including measures leading to an increase in railway safety and reliability.

The principles of the defined methodological approach are also applicable in an environment outside the Czech Republic, but there are two conditions for the possibility of application. The first condition is that for the alternative country, the documents for determining the average impact of the occurrence will be available (similar to the Departmental Methodology and database of occurrences that are available in the Czech Republic). The second condition is the existence of an adequate number of projects involving measures leading to an increase in railway safety and reliability.