Ensuring Southern Spain’s Energy Future: A LEAP-Based Scenario for Meeting 2030 and 2050 Goals

Abstract

The transition towards a low-carbon energy system remains a critical challenge for regions heavily dependent on fossil fuels, such as Andalusia. This study proposes an energy planning framework based on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to model alternative scenarios and assess the feasibility of meeting the 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation targets. Three scenarios are evaluated, the Tendential Scenario (TS01), the Efficient Scenario (ES01), and the Efficient UJA (EEUJA) Scenario, with this last being specifically designed to ensure full compliance with regional energy goals. The results indicate that, while the Tendential Scenario falls short in reducing primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the Efficient Scenario achieves significant progress, though it is still insufficient to meet renewable energy integration targets. The proposed EEUJA Scenario introduces more ambitious measures, including large-scale electrification, smart grids, energy storage, and green hydrogen deployment, resulting in a 39.5% reduction in primary energy demand by 2030 and 97% renewable energy penetration by 2050. Furthermore, by implementing sector-specific decarbonisation strategies for the industry, transport, residential, and services sectors, Andalusia could position itself as a frontrunner in the energy transition while minimising economic and environmental risks. These findings underscore the importance of policy enforcement, technological innovation, and financial incentives in securing a sustainable energy future. The methodology developed in this study is replicable for other regions aiming for carbon neutrality and energy resilience through strategic planning and scenario analysis.

1. Introduction

Renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind power, are driving Andalusia’s transition towards a sustainable energy system. In 2024, Andalusia reached a historic milestone in renewable energy, adding 2700 MW of installed capacity, making a total of 14,500 MW. According to data from the Andalusian Energy Agency, this significant growth was largely due to the expansion of photovoltaic capacity, which increased by 40.1% with an addition of 2253 MW. Renewable energy production rose by 14% in Andalusia compared to previous years and now represents 68.1% of the region’s energy mix [1]. Despite challenges such as integrating these sources into the electrical grid and opposition from the agricultural sector to large-scale solar farms [2], as observed in Jaén, the region currently is the top region in Spain for clean energy production. To balance energy development with rural environmental preservation, effective territorial planning will be essential. Spain has significantly increased its renewable energy capacity, particularly in wind and solar power, making Andalusia and other regions important contributors to the country’s energy mix [3].

Moreover, the concept of urban metabolism provides a valuable framework for understanding how cities manage energy and material flows, highlighting the need for a circular approach to energy planning. Recent studies emphasise that integrating urban sustainability strategies can enhance the efficiency of energy transitions in regional contexts, reducing environmental impacts and improving resilience [4].

By 2030, Andalusia’s Energy Strategy aims to reduce dependence on fossil fuels by establishing a more decarbonised and efficient energy model. Optimising the use of renewable energy and guaranteeing supply will require investments in energy storage, smart grids, and sustainable transportation [5,6,7]. Furthermore, fostering energy communities and self-consumption will promote greater democratisation and decentralisation in the energy sector. In this context, Capellán-Pérez et al. [8] emphasise how renewable energy cooperatives can strengthen local involvement and reduce reliance on centralised fossil fuel-based generation. As part of this framework, Andalusia has established targets for 2030, such as reducing diffuse greenhouse gas emissions by 39% from 2005 levels, cutting primary energy use by at least 39.5%, and increasing the share of renewable energy to at least 42% of gross final energy consumption. By lowering dependence on fossil fuels and enhancing the region’s climate resilience, these commitments aim to create a more sustainable and efficient energy system.

By 2050, the primary challenges will be achieving carbon neutrality [9] and adapting the energy system to the impacts of climate change, such as rising temperatures and water scarcity. Simón-Martín et al. [10] highlight that repowering existing wind farms can enhance efficiency and contribute to a fully renewable energy model. To meet this goal, Andalusia must integrate green hydrogen [11], the electrification of industry and transport, and carbon capture technologies, while ensuring resilience against extreme conditions such as droughts and heatwaves. This transformation will require investment in innovation, robust infrastructure, and strategic planning that harmonises sustainability, economic competitiveness, and territorial equity, reinforcing Andalusia’s role as a leader in the ecological transition.

Recent studies underline that regional energy transitions require more than just technological deployment; they demand integrative strategies that consider socio-territorial dynamics, local participation, and cross-sectoral coordination. Cardinali et al. [12] analysed innovative urban design and building envelope solutions, showing how passive strategies can be integrated into broader urban energy planning to improve sustainability and local climate resilience. Similarly, Domínguez-Delgado et al. [13] highlight the importance of life cycle assessment and economic feasibility studies in large-scale refurbishment projects, demonstrating how targeted investments and planning tools can align social housing renovation with decarbonisation objectives. These findings reinforce the idea that Andalusia’s leadership in renewable energy must be accompanied by system-level governance innovations, digitalisation, and inclusive planning to ensure the feasibility and resilience of its energy transition pathway.

According to a previous study on Andalusian energy scenarios, both trend-based and efficiency-focused approaches present certain barriers to fully achieving the 2030 targets. The study found that the Trend Scenario (TS01) projected a 15% rise in energy demand compared to the baseline year, making it difficult to meet the targets of a 39.5% reduction in primary energy consumption and a 42% share of renewable energy in final consumption. Although renewable energy production increasing, full decarbonisation is hindered by the continued reliance on fossil fuels. Díaz-Cuevas et al. [14] conducted a GIS-based study that explored Andalusia’s spatial potential for wind energy development, identifying locations that could increase the share of renewable energy sources in the region’s energy mix.

The Efficiency Scenario (ES01) indicates a 14.6% reduction in energy demand and a greater integration of renewable energy, reaching 33.48% of final energy consumption. However, this figure remains insufficient to meet the 42% target. Additionally, while the reduction in emissions in this scenario is substantial (73% compared to 2005 levels), the decrease in primary energy use only reaches 24.4%, still falling short of the 39.5% target.

These conclusions, drawn from the previous analysis, indicate that, while the Efficiency Scenario represents a major step forward, further measures are still required to fully achieve the goals set out in the Andalusian Energy Strategy 2030. Such measures include more intensive electrification, strengthening energy storage capacity, and a bolder adoption of renewable energy.

The analysis of Andalusia’s energy scenarios reveals that the objectives established for 2030 and 2050 will not be fully met with current trends. Although the Efficiency Scenario shows substantial progress in reducing energy consumption and increasing the share of renewable energy, it still falls short of the established targets, particularly with respect to reducing primary energy use and increasing the proportion of clean energy in final consumption. This indicates that current policies and strategies are not sufficient to achieve full decarbonisation of the energy sector, despite their good intentions.

The need to implement additional measures is further underscored by factors such as the growing demand for energy, the continued reliance on fossil fuels in key industrial and transport sectors, and the requirement for more robust infrastructure to support the deployment of renewable energy. Without a bolder strategy, Andalusia risks failing to meet its climate and sustainability commitments, with potentially negative economic, environmental, and regulatory consequences.

In this context, it is essential to advocate for the implementation of stricter and more effective measures to ensure a rapid and sustainable energy transition. Without these additional actions, the region will not only fail to meet the proposed targets but may also face increased energy dependence and greater challenges in adapting to climate change.

2. Methodology and Literature Review

Energy system modelling is an essential approach for assessing long-term decarbonisation strategies, designing policies, and evaluating the impacts associated with different technologies. To this end, a range of tools and methodologies has been developed, typically applied at the national or global scale, based on optimisation frameworks that prioritise cost-effectiveness or emissions reductions. Within the scope of this study, there are examples of modelling at a relatively general level, such as those focused on the European Union. For instance, in the EU-27, concepts such as environmental efficiency are used to determine how efficiently a country utilises its resources, applying the DEA methodology [15,16,17,18]. Other approaches are based on decomposing CO₂ emissions into contributing factors such as population, energy intensity, and economic activity, typically through the Kaya identity [19] combined with the LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) methodology [20,21,22,23].

The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP V2024.3.0.1.) is a widely used energy modelling tool designed for long-term scenario analysis of energy supply, demand, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It has been applied worldwide in studies focused on energy transitions, policy assessments, and sustainability strategies. This study employs the LEAP to project Andalusia’s energy scenarios for 2030 and 2050, evaluating different decarbonisation pathways. This section reviews previous studies that have utilised the LEAP, highlighting the methodologies and findings relevant to this research.

Several studies have demonstrated the versatility of the LEAP in modelling energy transitions. For instance, Pachauri et al. [24] analysed pathways for achieving universal energy access by evaluating household energy demand and policy interventions through the LEAP. Their findings underscore the critical role of electrification and renewable energy integration in securing sustainable energy access. Likewise, Loulou et al. [25] examined the LEAP’s demand-driven framework and its adaptability to different regional contexts, reinforcing its relevance for Andalusia’s case study. A recent LEAP-based study by Galán-Cano et al. [26] applied this modelling approach to Andalusia, a region characterised by both high renewable energy potential and significant fossil fuel dependence. By assessing multiple scenarios for 2030 and 2050, the study highlights the limitations of current policy trajectories and the need for accelerated electrification, renewable deployment, and energy storage to meet climate targets. This contribution illustrates the LEAP’s capacity to inform regional planning and bridge the gap between existing trends and long-term decarbonisation goals.

An LEAP-based evaluation of Ecuador’s transport sector was conducted by Guayanlema et al. [27], who modelled mitigation scenarios to reduce CO₂ emissions. Their results indicate that combining electrification with biofuel adoption can significantly lower sectoral emissions, aligning with Andalusia’s decarbonisation objectives for 2050. This study draws on their methodology to examine the role of transport electrification and hydrogen integration in Andalusia’s energy transition.

Similarly, Chaturvedi et al. [14] applied the LEAP to analyse India’s decarbonisation pathways, assessing the impact of energy efficiency improvements and increased renewable energy penetration through various policy-driven scenarios. Furthermore, Gutiérrez-García et al. [28] investigated the feasibility of nearly 100% renewable electricity systems, assessing their resilience under extreme conditions. By incorporating historical hourly demand and production data, their study evaluated whether a fully renewable energy system could ensure security of supply while reducing costs. The structured approach used in their scenario planning informs Andalusia’s baseline and efficiency energy transition scenarios, providing insights into the economic viability of a fully renewable system.

The integration of energy modelling with climate policies is another essential aspect of the LEAP’s application. Hainsch et al. [29] examined how national climate policies interact with energy transition strategies, emphasising that the LEAP’s modular structure enables policymakers to assess long-term sustainability objectives. Similarly, Adeyemi-Kayode et al. [30] utilised the LEAP to analyse greenhouse gas reduction strategies in West Africa, comparing different policy scenarios. Their findings highlight the importance of aligning energy transition models with policy frameworks, a principle incorporated into this study when designing the Efficient UJA (EEUJA) Scenario.

Demand-side management and energy efficiency are also critical components of sustainable energy planning. Yue et al. [31] investigated China’s energy efficiency policies using the LEAP, demonstrating how strong demand-side interventions can significantly reduce overall energy consumption. Moreover, Zhang et al. [32] integrated federated learning techniques into LEAP simulations, demonstrating their potential to enhance energy forecasting accuracy and optimise grid management while preserving data privacy. Their findings underscore the importance of decentralised intelligence in improving energy efficiency and mitigating cybersecurity risks in modern power systems. These insights are particularly relevant to the formulation of Andalusia’s energy strategy within the LEAP framework, highlighting the critical role of digitalisation and secure data-sharing mechanisms in advancing sustainable energy transitions.

In this study, the LEAP serves as the primary tool for forecasting and analysing Andalusia’s energy transition. By comparing a baseline scenario, an efficiency scenario, and a 2050 projection, the LEAP facilitates the assessment of energy demand trends, renewable energy integration, and CO₂ emissions reductions.

The structured framework of the LEAP allows for a comprehensive representation of energy supply, demand, and transformation, making it particularly effective for scenario-based energy policy analysis. According to Rivera-González et al. [33], the LEAP enables sectoral energy consumption projections and the evaluation of mitigation strategies by modelling different policy-driven scenarios, such as Business As Usual (BAU), Energy Optimisation and Mitigation (EOM), Alternative Fuels (AF), and Sustainable Mobility (SM). This methodological approach aligns with the structure of the present study, which examines Andalusia’s energy transition in various policy scenarios.

Furthermore, Li et al. [34] demonstrated how the LEAP can integrate energy efficiency improvements, large-scale electrification, and renewable energy expansion. Their study underscores the importance of structured and transparent policy modelling for achieving carbon neutrality—an approach mirrored in the design of the Efficient UJA (EEUJA) Scenario developed in this research.

The adaptability of the LEAP in energy planning is further reinforced by previous studies highlighting its role in assessing diverse pathways for sustainability and climate objectives. Lin et al. [35] integrated the LEAP with the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) to examine urban water–energy interactions in Xiamen, China. Their study emphasised the importance of cross-sectoral synergies in sustainability planning, using a dynamic model to analyse the interdependence between energy consumption and water supply. This approach is particularly relevant for Andalusia, where water availability plays a crucial role in energy sustainability, underscoring the need to incorporate multi-sectoral interactions into energy modelling.

The study of Barragán-Escandón et al. [36] highlights the importance of integrating renewable energy into urban environments through a circular urban metabolism framework, advocating a shift from linear resource consumption to self-sufficient urban systems. Their research identifies key renewable energy technologies that can enhance energy efficiency and reduce environmental impact, stressing the need for regulatory support and financial incentives to enable widespread adoption. Likewise, Terrados et al. [37] explored the role of strategic energy planning at the regional level, employing multicriteria decision-making tools such as SWOT analysis to assess the feasibility of various energy sources. Their findings emphasise the need for participatory governance, institutional commitment, and long-term policy frameworks to ensure a successful energy transition. These insights complement the present study’s use of the LEAP to model Andalusia’s energy transition by providing a holistic decision-making framework that integrates technological, economic, and policy considerations to enhance energy sustainability and reduce fossil fuel dependence.

On the other hand, several studies have demonstrated the LEAP’s ability to be integrated with complementary methodologies that enable a deeper analysis of the determinants of energy consumption and emissions. For example, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach has been used in combination with the LEAP to disaggregate the factors explaining changes in greenhouse gas emissions, such as energy intensity, sectoral structure, and level of economic activity [38,39]. This methodological synergy provides a robust tool for assessing both future scenarios and the historical impacts of energy policies, thereby strengthening the design of more effective mitigation strategies. The integration of the LEAP with the LMDI is particularly valuable for regional contexts such as Andalusia, where a detailed and dynamic perspective of the energy transition is required—one that considers not only projections but also the underlying factors shaping the territory’s energy behaviour—and can serve as a basis for future studies.

Complementary studies have reinforced the methodological value of integrating scenario-based modelling with participatory approaches and digital innovation tools. For example, Verhagen et al. [40] developed optimisation frameworks to allocate agri-environment measures, balancing ecosystem services, biodiversity, and agricultural production, and demonstrating how spatial modelling can inform regional sustainability strategies. Likewise, Wehn et al. [41] analysed the governance potential of citizen observatories for environmental management, illustrating how participatory data collection and digital platforms can improve decision-making transparency and stakeholder engagement in sustainability transitions.

Additionally, Li et al. [42] examined Hebei Province’s long-term energy consumption and carbon emissions using a bottom-up approach with the LEAP. Their study evaluated multiple policy-driven scenarios, including industrial structure optimisation and low-carbon development strategies, to analyse energy demand trends and mitigation pathways. The results indicate that implementing energy efficiency policies and increasing renewable energy integration can significantly reduce emissions while maintaining economic growth. This approach provides a valuable methodological framework for Andalusia’s energy transition, reinforcing the importance of scenario-based planning for achieving carbon neutrality.

3. Definition of Scenario

3.1. 2030 Scenarios

This necessary scenario was developed through a detailed analysis of the official energy targets for 2030 and 2050 (reduction of energy consumption, emissions reductions, and the integration of renewable energy) and the achievements of the Efficiency Scenario proposed by the Andalusian Energy Agency (AAE). Based on this information, actions were adjusted and reinforced to meet the objectives set in the national and international energy policies. Essentially, the official efficiency framework was adopted, with additional measures implemented to ensure full compliance, enabling Andalusia to align with established climate targets and advance towards a sustainable energy system.

The Efficient UJA (EEUJA) Scenario proposes a radical transformation of Andalusia’s energy system to ensure the achievement of decarbonisation and sustainability targets. In response to the scenario outlined by the Andalusian Energy Agency (AAE), which anticipates gradual and partial reductions in energy use, the EEUJA Scenario introduces stricter and more ambitious measures to accelerate the transition towards a model based on renewable energy and energy efficiency across all sectors.

While the AAE projects a 10% reduction in energy consumption through partial electrification and certain efficiency improvements, the EEUJA Scenario targets a 33% reduction, with full sectoral electrification, the implementation of renewable cogeneration, and the deployment of advanced energy storage systems. This approach to industrial modernisation could significantly reduce the sector’s environmental impact by optimising the use of energy resources.

The transport sector is one of the fundamental pillars of this transformation. Under the AAE framework, a 25% reduction in fossil fuel use through partial electrification is projected, whereas the EEUJA Scenario envisions a 35% reduction through pursuing full electrification, the integration of innovative biofuels, and the adoption of hydrogen as a viable alternative fuel, particularly for long-distance transport. Additionally, the expansion of charging infrastructure and the introduction of incentives for sustainable mobility are anticipated.

In the primary sector, the AAE projects a 2% increase in energy demand, focusing on improving irrigation systems and upgrading machinery. However, the EEUJA Scenario proposes a 15% reduction, incorporating the use of biogas, the installation of solar panels on agricultural properties, and the transition to hybrid and electric machinery. The aim is to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and promote greater sustainability in agricultural production.

In the residential sector, the AAE anticipates an 8% reduction in energy use by promoting the adoption of renewable energy and some improvements in energy efficiency. In contrast, the EEUJA Scenario aims for a 33% reduction through full electrification of the sector, increased on-site solar generation for self-consumption, the implementation of home energy storage systems, and the digitalisation of consumption through advanced home automation.

In the service sector, while the AAE anticipates an 8% reduction in energy consumption through energy certifications and partial digitalisation, the EEUJA Scenario aims for a 33% reduction by promoting the full digitalisation of energy management in both public and private buildings, the installation of solar panels and geothermal systems, and the implementation of sustainable mobility plans for employees.

Overall, the EEUJA Scenario distinguishes itself from the AAE framework by significantly advancing electrification, energy efficiency, and the integration of renewable energy across all sectors. It defines more ambitious actions to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and move towards a sustainable energy model, aligning with Andalusia’s decarbonisation targets for 2030 and 2050.

Table 1. Comparison of energy reduction scenarios across different sectors. Source: own elaboration.

Sector	AAE Scenario	EEUJA Scenario
Industrial	10% reduction in energy consumption, partial electrification, and efficiency improvements.	33% reduction, full electrification, renewable cogeneration, and energy storage.
Transport	25% reduction in fossil fuel consumption, partial electrification.	35% reduction, full electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen adoption.
Primary	2% increase in energy demand, irrigation efficiency, and equipment modernisation.	15% reduction, use of biogas, solar panels, and electric machinery.
Residential	8% reduction in consumption, incentives for renewable energy and energy efficiency.	33% reduction, full electrification, solar self-consumption, and home automation.
Services	8% reduction in consumption, energy certifications, and partial digitalisation.	33% reduction, full digitalisation, solar energy, and geothermal systems.

presents a comparison of the energy reduction scenarios across different sectors, contrasting the AAE (baseline) Scenario with the EEUJA (Efficient) Scenario. Although three scenarios are defined in this study, the comparison in this section focuses exclusively on the two Efficient scenarios (AAE and EEUJA), as the Tendential Scenario falls far short of the decarbonisation targets and is therefore excluded from the detailed sectoral analysis. The table shows the projected percentage reductions in energy consumption for each sector in the two scenarios, along with the key strategies implemented in each case. The AAE Scenario focuses on partial electrification and moderate efficiency improvements, resulting in incremental reductions in energy consumption. In contrast, the EEUJA Scenario proposes more ambitious measures, including full electrification, increased renewable energy integration, and advanced energy storage technologies. The transport and residential sectors display the most significant shifts, with a strong emphasis on biofuels, hydrogen adoption, and home automation. These strategic differences highlight the potential for a more sustainable and energy-efficient future under the EEUJA framework, aligning with Andalusia’s decarbonisation objectives for 2030 and 2050.

Assumptions and Parameters Used in Scenario Definition

This study defines three scenarios for Andalusia’s energy transition: the Tendential Scenario, the Efficient Scenario of the Andalusian Energy Strategy 2030 (AAE), and the Efficient UJA (EEUJA) Scenario. The Tendential Scenario assumes the continuation of current trends without additional structural measures, leading to results far from the 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation targets. The AAE Scenario, used here as the baseline, achieves most of the 2030 objectives but falls slightly short in fully meeting the targets for primary energy consumption reduction, renewable energy penetration, and greenhouse gas emissions. The EEUJA Scenario builds upon the AAE Scenario, reinforcing and expanding measures to ensure full compliance with both 2030 and 2050 objectives. These assumptions reflect the technological, political, and socio-economic expectations for achieving full decarbonisation by 2050.

While the three scenarios are compared globally in

Table 2. Key differences between the AAE and EEUJA Scenarios (2030 and 2050). Source: own elaboration.

Element/Parameter	AAE Scenario (Baseline)	EEUJA Scenario (Efficient)
Time horizon	2030/2050	2030/2050
Energy demand reduction	∼10–15% by 2030, slightly below the 39.5% target	33% by 2030; ≥39.5% by 2050
Electrification level	Partial (selected sectors)	Full (transport, industry, residential, services)
Renewable share (final consumption)	∼33–40% by 2030, just below the 42% target	≥42% by 2030; ≥75% by 2050
Fossil fuel reduction	Moderate reduction, continued dependency in key sectors	78–90% reduction; phase-out of coal and fuel oil
Green hydrogen	Not a core measure	Integrated for transport and industrial processes
Energy storage	Limited deployment	Large-scale deployment (batteries, hydrogen storage)
CCS and natural sinks	Not considered	Implemented by 2050 to bridge emissions gap
Digitalisation	Basic energy certifications and partial smart systems	Full digitalisation, automation, and smart grid coverage
Energy exports	Not projected	Projected surplus exports to national and international grids

, the detailed analysis focuses on the two Efficient scenarios (AAE and EEUJA). The reason is that, given the insufficient performance of the Tendential Scenario, the key question is whether the enhanced measures proposed in the EEUJA Scenario can bridge the gap left by the AAE Scenario and achieve the established targets.

Key assumptions for each Efficient scenario:

• AAE Scenario (Baseline):

  −

  Based on the “Efficient Scenario” of the Andalusian Energy Strategy 2030.

  −

  Partial electrification in key sectors.

  −

  Moderate policy interventions aligned with current regional strategies.

  −

  Gradual integration of renewable energy and moderate energy efficiency improvements.

  −

  Achieves most decarbonisation objectives for 2030 but falls slightly short in meeting all targets.

• EEUJA Scenario (Efficient):

  −

  Full electrification of the transport, industry, residential, and service sectors by 2050.

  −

  Deployment of advanced energy storage systems (batteries, hydrogen).

  −

  Integration of green hydrogen for transport and industrial processes.

  −

  Use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and enhancement of natural carbon sinks.

  −

  Ambitious policy frameworks and investments aligned with EU Green Deal goals.

  −

  Decentralisation and digitalisation of the energy system (smart grids, home automation).

  −

  Promotion of energy self-consumption and community-based energy models.

The main differences between these two scenarios are summarised in Table 2.

Figure 1 illustrates a comparative analysis of the energy consumption scenarios across different sectors, namely, the primary, transport, industry, residential, and services sectors. The bar charts display the sectoral energy mix for three time points: 2019, 2030 (AAE Scenario), and 2030 (EEUJA Scenario). The colours in the stacked bars indicate the contribution of different energy sources, including fossil fuel derivatives, natural gas, electricity, and renewables such as hydrogen. The black dashed line represents the total energy demand for each sector over time. The results show substantial reductions in fossil fuel dependence and a marked increase in electrification, particularly in the transport and residential sectors. The EEUJA 2030 Scenario demonstrates a more ambitious shift toward renewable energy sources, ensuring full alignment with Andalusia’s decarbonisation targets for 2030 and setting a clear pathway toward the 2050 objectives.

3.2. Projection to 2050: Extrapolation of Trends and Additional Adjustments

The Efficient UJA (EEUJA) 2050 Scenario builds upon the measures implemented in the EEUJA 2030 Scenario, introducing additional actions to ensure the full achievement of decarbonisation and energy transition goals. While the strategies planned for 2030 represent substantial progress in reducing energy consumption and integrating renewable sources, by 2050, even bolder initiatives will be required to develop a net-zero energy system aligned with national and international commitments. In terms of energy demand, the EEUJA 2050 Scenario projects a 31.78% reduction in final energy consumption compared to the baseline year. This decrease is primarily driven by the widespread electrification of transport and industry, the modernisation of energy infrastructure, and the digitalisation of demand management systems. The transport sector is expected to achieve a 54.6% reduction in energy demand, while the residential and service sectors are projected to achieve reductions of 25.7% and 21.5%, respectively.

To achieve climate neutrality, the 2050 scenario envisions the complete phase-out of fossil fuels such as coal and fuel oil, along with substantial reductions in diesel and gasoline use, 78% and 18%, respectively. At the same time, electricity demand is expected to rise by 12.3%, driven by the electrification of the industrial and residential sectors. A significant increase in renewable energy use is also projected, including a doubling of solar energy generation compared to 2030, a 27% rise in biomass consumption, and a 25% increase in biofuel utilisation.

Structurally, the EEUJA 2050 Scenario incorporates additional adjustments in energy planning to address uncertainties linked to technological developments, evolving energy policies, and economic fluctuations. The strategy therefore reinforces its commitment to large-scale energy storage, the deployment of green hydrogen infrastructure, the expansion of smart grids, and the decentralisation of energy generation.

Regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, projections indicate a 77.56% reduction by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, driven by the combined effects of renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency measures. Nonetheless, this figure falls short of the 90% reduction target set by the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC). To close this gap, the scenario integrates carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, together with measures to enhance natural CO₂ sinks through reforestation and the restoration of key ecosystems such as wetlands and grasslands.

Finally, the EEUJA 2050 Scenario foresees the export of surplus renewable energy, promoting regional energy self-sufficiency and integration into both national and international electricity markets. The projected increase in renewable generation will further reduce reliance on energy imports and position Andalusia as a leading reference in the European energy transition.

3.3. Economic Feasibility and Scalability of the EEUJA Scenario

The implementation of the EEUJA Scenario implies a comprehensive transformation of the energy system in Andalusia, which has significant economic implications. Achieving full electrification, deploying advanced energy storage systems, and integrating green hydrogen infrastructure requires substantial upfront investments.

Focusing on green hydrogen, it is necessary to discuss its technological maturity using the accepted method for measuring the degree of maturity, which is none other than the technology readiness level (TRL) [43]. This level ranges from basic principles (level 1) to deployment in a real environment (level 9). For example, electrification solutions such as electric vehicles, heat pumps, and smart grid components have a commercial readiness level of TRL 8–9, while large-scale green hydrogen applications, whether for the transport sector or industrial sector, are still in the early commercial or demonstration phases due to their lower level of development [44].

Preliminary estimations based on comparable European transition plans (e.g., REPowerEU, PNIEC) suggest that the total investment required to reach the 2050 targets may exceed EUR 40 billion, distributed across sectors such as the transport, industry, power generation, and infrastructure modernisation sectors.

Regional programmes such as the Hyland hydrogen programme in Germany [45] demonstrate that well-coordinated regulatory frameworks, supported by specific subsidies and adequate planning, can accelerate both market penetration and cost reduction.

Funding sources could include a combination of public investment (EU recovery funds, national climate funds, regional grants), private capital (through public–private partnerships), and citizen-led initiatives such as energy communities or cooperative self-consumption. However, several economic barriers could hinder the scalability of the EEUJA Scenario. These include the following:

• High initial capital costs for renewable energy technologies and storage.
• Delays in permitting and grid connection.
• Market instability and inflation affecting supply chains.
• Limited access to financing in rural or vulnerable areas.

In contrast, the long-term benefits of the EEUJA Scenario—such as reduced fossil fuel dependency, improved energy security, job creation, and lower health and environmental costs—could offset initial expenditures and generate a positive socio-economic return over time. Therefore, the scalability of the EEUJA Scenario depends on the strategic alignment of investments, institutional support, and the mobilisation of financial instruments that can de-risk large-scale sustainable energy deployment.

4. Results

4.1. 2030—Differences Between the Baseline, Efficient, and Forced Scenarios

The three analysed scenarios (Tendential, Efficient, and Forced) demonstrate varying degrees of transformation in Andalusia’s energy system, with notable differences in energy consumption reduction, the expansion of renewable energy sources, and the phase-out of fossil fuels. Given the expertise in renewable energy and industrial energy systems, these findings align with the broader challenges of integrating advanced storage solutions and smart grids to ensure a sustainable and resilient energy transition. The Tendential Scenario reflects a continuation of current policies without significant changes, which is insufficient for meeting the 2030 targets. In this scenario, the reduction in primary energy is limited to 6.3%, far from the required 39.5%, and renewable energies account for only 25.7% of final consumption, falling short of the 42% target. Although CO₂ emissions would decrease by 56.7% compared to 2005 levels, this reduction cannot be achieved without the implementation of additional, concrete measures. Furthermore, fossil fuels remain a major component of the energy mix, with only limited electrification in key sectors such as transport and industry. This scenario underscores the risks of stagnation in the energy transition and highlights the urgent need for more ambitious measures to achieve Andalusia’s decarbonisation and sustainability objectives.

The Efficient Scenario proposes measures to improve efficiency and increase the integration of renewable energies, achieving significant progress but still falling short of the established targets. The reduction in primary energy consumption reaches 24.4%, a notable improvement but still below the 39.5% required. The share of renewable energies rises to 33.48%, approaching the 42% target but not fully reaching it. CO₂ emissions are reduced by 73% compared to 2005 levels, significantly exceeding the 39% target, demonstrating the positive impact of the measures implemented. However, fossil fuels remain in use, with only a partial shift towards biofuels and electrification in the transport sector. Though energy dependence decreases, Andalusia still will not achieve full energy self-sufficiency, indicating that further measures are needed to fully meet sustainability and decarbonisation goals.

The Forced Scenario (EEUJA) proposes more ambitious and decisive measures to fully achieve the established targets. In this scenario, the reduction in primary energy consumption reaches 39.5%, meeting the required objective. The share of renewable energies exceeds 42% by 2030 and reaches 97% by 2050, ensuring a fully sustainable electricity system. By 2050, emissions decrease by 77.56%, with additional carbon capture and storage strategies being implemented to move closer to the 90% reduction target. Fossil fuels are completely phased out, enabling full electrification across industry, transport, residential, and service sectors. This positions Andalusia as a leader in the energy transition and secures a sustainable, low-carbon future. Additionally, green hydrogen and biofuels play a crucial role in the transition, supporting the decarbonisation of heavy transport and the sustainability of industrial production. Autonomous energy management is promoted, allowing the export of surplus renewable energy, which strengthens Andalusia’s position in the energy transition and enhances its role in both local and international energy markets.

In

Table 3. Comparison of different energy scenarios based on key indicators. Source: own elaboration.

Aspect	Tendential Scenario	Efficient Scenario (AAE)	Forced Scenario
Energy reduction	↓ 6.3% (well below the 39.5% target).	↓ 24.4% (a significant improvement but insufficient).	↓ 39.5% (full compliance with the target).
Renewable energy share in consumption	25.7% (far from the 42% required).	33.48% (close to 42% but not reaching the target).	42% in 2030, 97% in 2050 (100% renewable electricity).
CO2 emissions reduction (compared to 2005 levels)	↓ 56.7% (moderate reduction without additional measures).	↓ 73% (well above the target).	↓ 77.56% in 2050 (with additional carbon sequestration strategies).
Fossil fuel phase-out	Partial, with still high dependence on fossil fuels.	Significant reduction, but not total elimination.	Further reduction of fossil fuels.
Use of hydrogen and biofuels	Marginal use.	Partial integration in transport and industry.	Increased use in transport, industry, and generation.
Transport electrification	Limited, with fossil fuels remaining dominant.	Progress in electrification, but not full electrification.	Full electrification of transport.
Energy self-sufficiency	High dependence on external energy.	Reduction in dependence, but not self-sufficiency.	Increased export of renewable energy.

, a comparison of different energy scenarios is presented based on key indicators such as energy reduction, renewable energy share in consumption, CO₂ emissions reduction, fossil fuel phase-out, use of hydrogen and biofuels, transport electrification, and energy self-sufficiency.

The evolution of the energy consumption structure in different scenarios is shown in Figure 2. This figure compares the share of various energy sources, including petroleum derivatives, electricity, natural gas, and renewable energies, across different timeframes and scenarios. The Trend Scenario (2019) reveals a high dependence on fossil fuels, particularly petroleum derivatives, whereas the transition to the Efficient Scenario (EEUJA) shows a substantial shift towards electricity and renewable sources. This reflects a progressive decarbonisation strategy aimed at reducing reliance on fossil fuels and increasing the penetration of clean energy technologies.

4.2. Impact on Energy Consumption and Emissions Reduction

The Efficient UJA (EEUJA) Scenario proposes a profound transformation of Andalusia’s energy structure, enabling substantial reductions in both energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. Through a strategy centred on the full electrification of key sectors, the complete phase-out of fossil fuels, and the large-scale adoption of renewable energies, the scenario outlines a more efficient energy system that is fully aligned with decarbonisation goals.

Regarding energy consumption, the EEUJA Scenario has the potential to achieve a 39.5% reduction in primary energy demand by 2030, fully meeting the target set in the Andalusian Energy Strategy. By 2050, this reduction increases to 48.8% compared to 2007 levels, driven primarily by the transition to a renewable-based model, the deployment of smart grids, and large-scale energy storage. The transport sector is among the most impacted, with an expected 54.6% reduction in energy consumption by 2050 facilitated by full electrification, the expansion of green hydrogen, and the implementation of innovative biofuels. In the domestic sector, improvements in energy efficiency and the digitalisation of consumption enable a 25.7% reduction in energy demand. Meanwhile, in the service sector, energy consumption is expected to decrease by 21.5%, driven by the integration of solar and geothermal energy in commercial and administrative buildings.

Figure 3 shows a comparison of the energy consumption between scenarios. The black section in the bars illustrates the amount of energy that would be avoided if the most efficient scenario were implemented, highlighting the potential demand reduction under optimal conditions.

The impact on CO₂ emissions is equally substantial. The EEUJA Scenario projects a 77.56% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2050 compared to 2005 levels, coming close to the 90% reduction target set in the PNIEC. This outcome is achieved through the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels, replacing them with renewable energy and energy storage solutions, as well as the large-scale deployment of green hydrogen and biofuels in hard-to-electrify sectors such as heavy industry and long-distance transport. In addition, the implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies will help offset residual emissions, while enhancing natural CO₂ sinks—through reforestation and the restoration of key ecosystems—will further boost atmospheric carbon absorption, strengthening Andalusia’s decarbonisation strategy.

Figure 4 presents a comparison of CO₂ emissions across different scenarios. The black sections in the bars represent the amount of emissions that could be avoided if the most efficient scenario were implemented, highlighting the potential for significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.

A key factor in this transformation is the consolidation of a renewable energy-based model with autonomous energy management. By 2030, the share of renewable energy in final consumption rises to 42% and reaches 97% by 2050, ensuring a fully renewable electricity system. This transition results in a 78% reduction in diesel use and an 18% decrease in gasoline consumption, enabling an energy system free from fossil fuel dependence. Moreover, the expansion of renewable energy production will allow Andalusia not only to secure its own energy supply but also to export surplus clean electricity, positioning the region as a leader in the energy transition at both the national and international level.

Figure 5 presents a Sankey diagram representing the designed scenario. The diagram illustrates the flow of energy from different production sources to various consumption sectors, highlighting key components such as solar, wind, and biomass production, as well as exports and emissions pathways.

4.3. Extrapolation to 2050

The Efficient UJA (EEUJA) 2050 Scenario builds upon the progress achieved through the measures implemented in 2030, incorporating additional actions to ensure climate neutrality and long-term energy sustainability in Andalusia. A consolidated analysis of energy trends indicates that achieving a net-zero emissions system will require the full electrification of key sectors, a substantial increase in energy storage capacity, and the progressive phase-out of fossil fuels. These measures are essential for securing a resilient, efficient, and sustainable energy transition.

Energy consumption is projected to continue declining, reaching a 48.8% reduction compared to 2007 levels, underscoring the impact of high resource efficiency, digitalisation, and the deployment of advanced energy management technologies. In the transport sector, energy demand is expected to fall by 54.6%, driven by the complete electrification of urban and interurban transport and the adoption of green hydrogen for heavy-duty and maritime transport. In the residential sector, energy consumption is projected to decrease by 25.7%, supported by the implementation of self-consumption systems with storage and the modernisation of urban infrastructure to further reduce overall demand.

Figure 6 illustrates the projected evolution of energy consumption to 2050. The graph depicts the decline in energy demand over time, with different energy sources represented in various colours. The black line indicates the amount of energy that would be saved if the most efficient scenario were implemented.

Regarding CO₂ emissions, projections indicate a 77.56% reduction compared to 2005 levels, bringing the region close to the 90% reduction target set in the PNIEC. To achieve climate neutrality, additional strategies are incorporated, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the enhancement of natural CO₂ sinks through reforestation programmes and the restoration of key ecosystems. These measures further strengthen Andalusia’s commitment to long-term sustainability and decarbonisation.

Figure 7 depicts the projected evolution of CO₂ emissions up to 2050. The graph shows the anticipated decline in emissions across different sectors, with each colour representing a specific sector. The black line indicates the amount of emissions that could be avoided if the most efficient scenario were implemented.

The evolution of the energy balance demonstrates an almost complete transition to renewable energy sources. By 2050, it is estimated that 97% of final energy demand will be met by renewables, with a fully renewable electricity system based on solar, wind, biomass, and green hydrogen. This structural transformation will enable Andalusia to meet its internal energy needs with a high level of renewable penetration, enhancing energy self-sufficiency and resilience and contributing to national and European decarbonisation targets.

Figure 8 presents a Sankey diagram representing the projected energy flows for 2050. The diagram illustrates the distribution of energy from various sources, including renewable production, natural gas, and biomass supply, in different sectors such as electricity generation, transport, and industrial use.

5. Discussion

5.1. Technical and Economic Feasibility of the Forced Scenario

With widespread electrification, the phase-out of fossil fuels, and the full integration of renewable energy sources, the Efficient UJA (EEUJA) Scenario aims to radically transform the energy sector. From a technical standpoint, the viability of this transition relies on mature technologies that have already proven successful in various contexts. The efficiency and cost-effectiveness of photovoltaic and wind power, together with energy storage solutions such as batteries and green hydrogen, have improved significantly, making large-scale deployment increasingly feasible.

The potential of offshore wind energy for hydrogen production is particularly evident in studies such as that of Lucas et al. [46], carried out on the WindFloat Atlantic offshore wind farm. Their analysis shows that producing hydrogen from surplus wind power can significantly enhance resource efficiency and reduce curtailment events, offering a comprehensive approach to decarbonisation. However, their findings also indicate that large-scale deployment is more economically viable than small-scale projects, underscoring the need for long-term investment strategies and government incentives to enable this transition.

Similarly, the research by Datas et al. [47] on solar PV power-to-heat-to-power storage provides strong evidence that decentralised energy storage systems can enhance the efficiency and reliability of the electrical grid. Their findings indicate that self-consumption of solar PV energy could deliver up to 90% electricity savings with relatively short payback periods, particularly when combined with cogeneration and thermal energy storage solutions. The feasibility of this approach is further supported by Gómez-Expósito et al. [48], who examined the role of rooftop PV in the Spanish electricity mix. Their results suggest that coupling rooftop solar with energy storage can reduce dependence on centralised power plants while contributing to demand balancing.

Nevertheless, the scalability of the EEUJA model largely depends on economic considerations. Although the levelised costs of renewable energy have decreased significantly—making them cheaper than fossil fuels in many regions—financing the transition remains a challenge. The study on self-consumption in residential buildings by Gil Mena et al. [49] highlights the importance of dynamic energy-sharing models in enhancing economic viability. Their findings demonstrate that net billing schemes and optimised self-consumption strategies can substantially reduce costs, thereby increasing the competitiveness of localised renewable energy generation. These results suggest that, with the right financial mechanisms, incentives, and regulatory support, the EEUJA Scenario is both technically and economically feasible in the medium-to-long term.

5.2. Identification of Barriers to Real-World Implementation of the EEUJA Scenario

The EEUJA concept appears to be technically feasible; however, several barriers hinder its widespread adoption. Resistance from the transport and industrial sectors, which remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels, represents one of the most significant challenges. In their analysis of grid parity and self-consumption within the Spanish regulatory framework, Talavera et al. [50] highlight how the adoption of photovoltaic systems has historically been constrained by periodic policy changes and the imposition of additional taxes. Their findings suggest that, although renewable energy sources are becoming increasingly competitive, investment is discouraged by persistent regulatory uncertainty.

The lack of infrastructure for green hydrogen integration and large-scale energy storage is another major obstacle. Although Díaz-González et al. [51] provide a comprehensive review of energy storage technologies for wind power applications, they emphasise that high costs and significant infrastructure requirements remain key barriers to deployment. This aligns with the conclusions of Girard et al. [52], who examined Spain’s energy outlook and found that the country’s renewable transition has been hampered by inconsistent policy frameworks and insufficient investment in grid modernisation.

Implementation is further delayed by the complexity of administrative procedures for renewable energy projects, in addition to infrastructure and economic obstacles. According to Gil Mena et al. [49], the administrative burden associated with self-consumption installations has deterred customers from adopting decentralised energy solutions. Without streamlined processes and clearly defined long-term strategies, the transition envisioned in the EEUJA Scenario may face significant delays.

In summary, although the EEUJA Scenario offers a technically and economically viable pathway, its real-world implementation is constrained by a complex set of interdependent barriers. Technological scalability remains uncertain for several key solutions, including large-scale green hydrogen production, advanced energy storage, and full smart grid deployment—particularly in rural or low-density areas. These limitations are compounded by the need for substantial upgrades to transmission and distribution infrastructure, which currently suffers from insufficient investment and planning. Regulatory bottlenecks and administrative inertia, especially at the local level, continue to delay project approvals and undermine investor confidence. Furthermore, challenges related to social acceptance—ranging from community resistance to land-use conflicts—may hinder large-scale infrastructure deployment. These barriers underscore the need for integrated strategies that combine technological innovation, institutional reform, and active citizen engagement to ensure that the EEUJA Scenario is not only desirable but also realistically achievable.

5.3. Translating Measures into Viable Public Policies

Converting the EEUJA Scenario’s main goals into practical and enforceable regulations is essential for its successful implementation. One of the most critical areas of action is investment in green hydrogen infrastructure, particularly its integration with offshore wind energy. Although hydrogen production from offshore wind farms is technically feasible, Lucas et al. [46] demonstrate that it becomes economically viable only at large scales or with strong government incentives. To stimulate growth in this sector, public–private partnerships and targeted subsidies should be prioritised.

Likewise, regulatory frameworks must evolve to promote self-consumption and support distributed energy resources (DERs). The 2023 analysis by Gil Mena et al. [49] highlights the importance of flexible energy-sharing arrangements that allow users to maximise the benefits of locally generated renewable energy. Similarly, Gómez-Expósito et al. [48] recommend policy measures that support decentralised storage and rooftop photovoltaics, which could enhance both the economic efficiency and resilience of the electricity system.

Additionally, modernising the electricity grid and expanding energy storage capacity are essential steps to ensure a smooth transition. Díaz-González et al. [51] emphasise that, while storage technologies can significantly improve grid stability and facilitate renewable energy integration, their deployment is currently constrained by high costs and insufficient infrastructure. Overcoming these challenges requires a combination of financial incentives, dedicated research funding, and strategic grid planning.

Beyond technical and economic measures, public engagement and citizen participation are fundamental to securing broad social acceptance of the energy transition. Talavera et al. [50] note that regulatory instability has previously generated public scepticism towards self-consumption policies, thereby undermining their effectiveness. Transparent communication, streamlined administrative procedures, and targeted financial incentives can help build trust and foster active participation in the transition process.

5.4. Limitations of the Study

This study presents a forward-looking scenario (EEUJA) designed to align Andalusia’s energy system with decarbonisation objectives by 2030 and 2050. However, several limitations must be acknowledged: Firstly, the proposed scenario relies on assumptions of full sectoral electrification and the rapid deployment of emerging technologies such as green hydrogen and advanced energy storage systems, whose future scalability and cost reductions remain uncertain. Secondly, the analysis adopts a normative rather than a probabilistic modelling approach, which limits its ability to assess the likelihood of achieving each target under different socio-economic conditions. Additionally, while the study incorporates qualitative policy and economic considerations, it does not conduct a quantitative cost–benefit analysis of the proposed measures, nor does it evaluate fiscal impacts or macroeconomic feedback effects. Regional disparities within Andalusia—such as urban–rural gaps in infrastructure and social readiness—are also not modelled in detail. Finally, the successful implementation of the scenario depends on external factors—such as geopolitical stability, energy market dynamics, and regulatory changes—that are beyond the scope of this analysis. These limitations highlight the need for future research employing integrated assessment models and stakeholder-based participatory approaches to refine the feasibility of the EEUJA Scenario under varying real-world constraints.

6. Conclusions

This study analysed the prospects for Andalusia’s energy transition in the Efficient UJA (EEUJA) Scenario. The key contributions to the literature and policy design can be summarised as follows:

• Strategic vision for decarbonisation: The EEUJA Scenario outlines a pathway to achieving Andalusia’s 2030 and 2050 climate goals through full electrification, the phase-out of fossil fuels, and the large-scale integration of renewables. As highlighted by [53], such structural changes require profound transformations in energy systems, presenting both challenges and opportunities.
• Technological feasibility: The deployment of smart grids [54], battery storage, and green hydrogen [55] is essential for managing intermittency and enhancing system stability. These technologies, already mature in other contexts, can support the transition in Andalusia if appropriately scaled and backed by targeted policies.
• Economic and regulatory drivers: While renewable energy is increasingly cost-competitive [56], its widespread adoption depends on fiscal tools (e.g., tax incentives, subsidies) and regulatory stability [57]. Rooftop PV systems, still underexploited in Andalusia [58], could play a pivotal role in distributed generation models.
• Social acceptance and participation: Public engagement from the earliest planning stages is critical. Studies on Portugal [55] demonstrate that trust and transparency strongly influence project success. Simplified permitting processes and fair compensation mechanisms are essential for increasing social acceptance in Andalusia [57].
• Sector-specific opportunities: Biomass resources from agriculture [59] and geospatial planning of solar PV [60] are strategic levers for rural development and land-use optimisation. These technologies can foster inclusive growth and energy diversification.
• Energy justice and community-driven approaches: The Positive Energy District (PED) model [61] demonstrates how local energy communities can tackle energy poverty and promote ownership of clean energy systems. However, economic and institutional barriers still limit their large-scale deployment.
• Need for coordinated governance: As discussed by Ramos Ridao et al. [62], Andalusia’s geographic potential must be matched with long-term planning, regional policy observatories, and alignment with national and EU strategies to position the region as a renewable energy leader.

With these findings, this study contributes to the growing body of literature emphasising that achieving energy and climate goals requires not only technological innovation but also regulatory reform, social engagement, and financial mobilisation.

7. Policy Implications and Implementation Pathways

The results obtained from the analysis of the EEUJA Scenario underscore the urgent need for ambitious and regionally adapted policy frameworks capable of facilitating a just, accelerated, and economically viable energy transition in Andalusia. This section outlines specific policy recommendations derived from the scenario’s assumptions and results while also addressing their realistic implementation within the current socio-political and economic context.

7.1. Policy Recommendations

To ensure the successful implementation of the EEUJA Scenario, a set of ambitious and regionally tailored policy measures should be adopted. Public authorities should accelerate the electrification of all sectors by 2050, prioritising the integration of renewable energy sources, the deployment of smart grids, and the decarbonisation of the transport sector. This process must be supported by robust legislative frameworks for distributed energy systems, including incentives for self-consumption, the creation of energy communities, and the expansion of net metering schemes.

Equally important is the mobilisation of financial resources. European instruments such as the Recovery and Resilience Facility and Cohesion Policy Funds, along with national green investment plans and private capital, should be leveraged to support the large-scale deployment of clean technologies. Financial mechanisms such as green bonds and public–private partnerships should be scaled up, particularly in rural and low-income areas where investment gaps may be most pronounced.

From a regulatory perspective, simplifying and accelerating permitting processes for renewable installations and grid connections is critical. The establishment of digital platforms for permit management and regional one-stop shops can significantly reduce administrative bottlenecks and facilitate more agile project implementation.

Social acceptance and equity are also central to the success of this transition. The EEUJA Scenario should include provisions for just transition policies, focusing on the reskilling and upskilling of workers in sectors affected by decarbonisation. Moreover, financial compensation and participatory mechanisms should be established to ensure that landowners, farmers, and local communities benefit directly from the deployment of new infrastructure.

Finally, strong multi-level governance is required to align local, regional, and national energy policies. Andalusia, given its strategic position and renewable potential, should consolidate its leadership in the ecological transition by fostering regional innovation ecosystems and establishing policy observatories that enable coordination, monitoring, and adaptive planning.

7.2. Realistic Implementation Strategies

Implementing the above measures in the current socio-political climate requires prioritising actions that generate co-benefits such as job creation, cost savings, and enhanced energy security. Integrating climate objectives into economic recovery plans and regional development strategies will improve political feasibility.

The decentralised nature of Spain’s energy governance enables autonomous communities to tailor their strategies. Andalusia should leverage this advantage to align its EEUJA Scenario with national objectives (PNIEC, REPowerEU) while promoting inclusive governance through stakeholder participation.

Addressing economic disparities between urban and rural areas is key. Policies should ensure that infrastructure investments, incentives, and innovation are equitably distributed to prevent energy poverty and strengthen regional cohesion. Ultimately, the policy framework must be dynamic and adaptable, with periodic monitoring and revision mechanisms to adjust the strategies in response to technological evolution, investment flows, and environmental outcomes.