The Impact of Adjuvanted Influenza Vaccine on Disease Severity in the US: A Stochastic Model

Influenza can exacerbate underlying medical conditions. In this study, we modelled the potential impact of an egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVe) or adjuvanted QIV (aQIV) on hospitalizations and mortality from influenza-related cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory, and other complications in adults ≥65 years of age in the US with underlying chronic conditions. We used a stochastic decision-tree model, with 1000 simulations varying input across predicted ranges. Due to the variable nature of influenza across seasons and differences in published estimates for input parameters, data are presented as 95% confidence intervals. Compared with no vaccination, use of aQIV would prevent 135,450–564,360 hospitalizations and 1612–29,226 deaths across outcomes evaluated. Overall, aQIV prevented 1071–18,388 more hospitalizations and 85–1944 more deaths than QIVe. By routine seasonal vaccination against influenza, a substantial number of severe influenza-associated complications and deaths, caused by direct influenza symptoms or by exacerbation of chronic conditions, can be prevented in high-risk adults ≥65 years of age in the US.