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Article

Is the Relationship between Acute and Chronic Workload a Valid Predictive Injury Tool? A Bayesian Analysis

by
Leandro Carbone
1,
Matias Sampietro
2,
Agustin Cicognini
1,
Manuel García-Sillero
3,4,* and
Salvador Vargas-Molina
3,4
1
Department of Physical Education and Sport, Faculty of Medicine, University of Salvador, Buenos Aires C1020ADN, Argentina
2
Physiotheraphy Department Belgrano Football Club, Nacional University of Cordoba, Cordoba X5000HUA, Argentina
3
Department of Physical Education and Sport, Faculty of Sport Sciences, EADE-University of Wales Trinity Saint David, 29018 Malaga, Spain
4
Physical Education and Sport, Faculty of Medicine, University of Málaga, 29010 Malaga, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Clin. Med. 2022, 11(19), 5945; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm11195945
Submission received: 2 September 2022 / Revised: 3 October 2022 / Accepted: 5 October 2022 / Published: 8 October 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Clinical Advances in Rehabilitation and Prevention)
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Abstract

This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between injury risk, acute load (AL), acute chronic workload ratio (ACWR) and a new proposed ACWR. Design: a retrospective cohort study of the year 2018 was conducted on Argentine first-division soccer players. Participants: Data from 35 players (age = 26.7 ± 4.71 years; height = 176.28 ± 6.09 cm; mass = 74.2 ± 5.27 kg) were recorded; 12 players’ data were analyzed for 1 year, and 23 players’ data were analyzed for 6 months. Interventions: The mean difference of ACWR (MD = 0.22), high-density interval (HDI 95% = (0.07, 0.36)) and AL (MD = 449.23, HDI 95% = (146.41, 751.2)) between groups turned out to be statistically significant. The effect size between groups comparing ACWR and AL was identical (ES = 0.64). Results: The probability of suffering an injury conditioned by ACWR or random ACWR was similar for all estimated quantiles, and the differences between them were not statistically significant. Conclusions: The ACWR ratio, using internal load monitoring, is no better than a synthetic ACWR created from a random denominator to predict the probability of injury. ACWR should not be used in isolation to analyze the causality between load and injury.
Keywords: injuries; ACWR; perceived exertion; workload; performance; prevention strategies injuries; ACWR; perceived exertion; workload; performance; prevention strategies

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MDPI and ACS Style

Carbone, L.; Sampietro, M.; Cicognini, A.; García-Sillero, M.; Vargas-Molina, S. Is the Relationship between Acute and Chronic Workload a Valid Predictive Injury Tool? A Bayesian Analysis. J. Clin. Med. 2022, 11, 5945. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm11195945

AMA Style

Carbone L, Sampietro M, Cicognini A, García-Sillero M, Vargas-Molina S. Is the Relationship between Acute and Chronic Workload a Valid Predictive Injury Tool? A Bayesian Analysis. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2022; 11(19):5945. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm11195945

Chicago/Turabian Style

Carbone, Leandro, Matias Sampietro, Agustin Cicognini, Manuel García-Sillero, and Salvador Vargas-Molina. 2022. "Is the Relationship between Acute and Chronic Workload a Valid Predictive Injury Tool? A Bayesian Analysis" Journal of Clinical Medicine 11, no. 19: 5945. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm11195945

APA Style

Carbone, L., Sampietro, M., Cicognini, A., García-Sillero, M., & Vargas-Molina, S. (2022). Is the Relationship between Acute and Chronic Workload a Valid Predictive Injury Tool? A Bayesian Analysis. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 11(19), 5945. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm11195945

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