Modelling the Geographical Distribution Pattern of Apple Trees on the Loess Plateau, China

The Loess Plateau, known for its fragile ecosystems, is one of the traditional apple-producing regions in China. Although some management measures are needed to enhance sustainable agriculture in response to the rising pressure of climate change, the geographic distribution of apple trees considering multiple variables has not been considered. In this study, we used three software (the maximum entropy model, IDRISI, and ArcGIS) to simulate the potential distribution of suitable habitats and range shifts of apple trees in the near present and near future (i.e., the 2030s and the 2050s) under two climate scenarios (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)1-26 and SSP5-85), while taking a variety of environmental factors into account (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and terrain). After optimization, the class unsuitable habitat (CUH) changed the potential distribution pattern of apple trees on the Loess Plateau. Currently, the areas of lowly suitable habitat (LSH), moderately suitable habitat (MSH), highly suitable habitat (HSH), and CUH were 7.66 × 10⁴, 2.80 × 10⁴, 0.23 × 10⁴, and 18.05 × 10⁴ km², respectively. Compared to the centroid estimated under the climate of 1970–2000, the suitability range of apple trees was displaced to the northwest in both the 2030s and the 2050s in SSP5-85 (i.e., 63.88~81.30 km), causing a larger displacement in distance than SSP1-26 (i.e., 40.05~50.32 km). This study demonstrates the possible changes in the spatial distribution of apple trees on the Loess Plateau in the near future and may provide a strong basis for future policy making.