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Article

Identifying Changes and Their Drivers in Paddy Fields of Northeast China: Past and Future

1
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
2
Inner Mongolia Water Conservancy Research Institute, Hohhot 010051, China
3
School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
4
Heilongjiang Water Conservancy Investment Group Co., Ltd., Harbin 150090, China
5
Heilongjiang Provincial Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power Investigation, Design and Research Institute, Harbin 150080, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Agriculture 2024, 14(11), 1956; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14111956
Submission received: 17 September 2024 / Revised: 28 October 2024 / Accepted: 30 October 2024 / Published: 31 October 2024
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applications of Remote Sensing in Agricultural Soil and Crop Mapping)

Abstract

Northeast China plays a crucial role as a major grain-producing region, and attention to its land use and land cover changes (LUCC), especially farmland changes, are crucial to ensure food security and promote sustainable development. Based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and a decision tree model, land types, especially those of paddy fields in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020, were extracted, and the spatiotemporal changes in paddy fields and their drivers were analyzed. The development trends of paddy fields under different future scenarios were explored alongside the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data. The findings revealed that the kappa coefficients of land use classification from 2000 to 2020 reached 0.761–0.825, with an overall accuracy of 80.5–87.3%. The proposed land classification method can be used for long-term paddy field monitoring in Northeast China. The LUCC in Northeast China is dominated by the expansion of paddy fields. The centroids of paddy fields gradually shifted toward the northeast by a distance of 292 km, with climate warming being the main reason for the shift. Under various climate scenarios, the temperature in Northeast China and its surrounding regions is projected to rise. Each scenario is anticipated to meet the temperature conditions necessary for the northeastward expansion of paddy fields. This study provides support for ensuring sustainable agricultural development in Northeast China.
Keywords: paddy field expansion; remote sensing; land use and land cover change; climate warming paddy field expansion; remote sensing; land use and land cover change; climate warming

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Hu, X.; Xu, Y.; Huang, P.; Yuan, D.; Song, C.; Wang, Y.; Cui, Y.; Luo, Y. Identifying Changes and Their Drivers in Paddy Fields of Northeast China: Past and Future. Agriculture 2024, 14, 1956. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14111956

AMA Style

Hu X, Xu Y, Huang P, Yuan D, Song C, Wang Y, Cui Y, Luo Y. Identifying Changes and Their Drivers in Paddy Fields of Northeast China: Past and Future. Agriculture. 2024; 14(11):1956. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14111956

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hu, Xuhua, Yang Xu, Peng Huang, Dan Yuan, Changhong Song, Yingtao Wang, Yuanlai Cui, and Yufeng Luo. 2024. "Identifying Changes and Their Drivers in Paddy Fields of Northeast China: Past and Future" Agriculture 14, no. 11: 1956. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14111956

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