2.1. Literature Review
Digital finance has developed vigorously in recent years, and many studies have been conducted on the connotation and measurement of digital finance and the relationship between digital finance and economic growth. The measurement of digital finance mainly includes the comprehensive index method and the core indicator method. The composite index method typically uses survey data, underlying transaction data, or text mining data to construct a composite index. The core indicator method uses core indicators such as online loan amounts and third-party payments to measure the development level of digital finance [
13]. Existing studies have shown that digital finance promotes economic growth, mainly by promoting innovation and entrepreneurship, providing capital support, and improving allocation efficiency [
14,
15]. The development of digital finance driven by internet technology makes borrowing and lending more convenient, significantly reduces the borrowing constraints of the innovative entrepreneurial group, and promotes regional entrepreneurship. Therefore, it has the transmission mechanism of “digital financial development—technological innovation and regional entrepreneurship—economic growth”. At the same time, digital finance can also rely on the powerful data collection, processing, and sharing capabilities of the big data platform to quickly match the supply and demand sides in the transaction process, reduce the transaction costs due to information asymmetry, improve the allocation efficiency of resources, and promote economic growth. In addition, the development of digital finance can also promote residents’ consumption, increase the demand for formal consumer credit in rural areas, and increase the income of rural households; this impact has heterogeneity and threshold effects [
8,
16,
17]. In terms of agricultural development, digital financial development can promote the substitution of capital factors for labor factors in agricultural production [
18] and improve not only agricultural mechanization by promoting both the development of the agricultural machinery operation service market and investment in agricultural fixed assets [
19] but also agricultural production efficiency. In addition, digital finance can not only ease rural credit constraints and improve financial availability [
20] but also relax information constraints on farmers with regard to starting businesses and engaging in nonagricultural employment, thereby promoting the transfer of agricultural labor to nonagricultural sectors. In turn, the progress of the nonagricultural sector provides agricultural production with conveniences in terms of energy, power, machinery, equipment, fertilizers, and seeds [
21].
Research on grain production has focused mainly on identifying its influencing factors, such as factor inputs [
22], climatic conditions [
23], and government support for agricultural policies [
24]. Research on finance’s promotion of grain production has focused mainly on the relationship between fiscal and financial support for agricultural policies and grain production. It is believed that fiscal and financial support for agriculture can effectively alleviate rural credit constraints and reduce the cost of agricultural factor inputs, which in turn will help farmers expand the scale of grain planting and promote increased grain production [
25]. In addition, some scholars have paid attention to the impact and path of county-level financial agglomeration on farmers’ income [
26]. China’s agricultural development is highly concentrated in the county. County financial agglomeration promotes regional economic growth. Economic growth produces the main positive effect of promoting improvements in the levels of income of the residents, so the county financial agglomeration directly allows the farmers to increase their income. In addition, agricultural mechanization can indirectly increase the farmers’ income. However, there are currently no studies focusing on the impact of digital finance on food production. However, some research has shown that there is an important relationship between digital finance and agricultural production factor inputs. Since digital finance has inclusive value in agricultural production, the greater the level of digital finance development there is, the more likely it is that traditional farming methods will shift to semi-mechanized and mechanized methods. Digital finance can also expand the scale of cultivation by facilitating the transfer of farmland by large growers, ultimately increasing output and production value. The development of digital finance can effectively alleviate the financing constraints faced by large planting households with the intention of expanding their scale of operation and satisfy their capital needs for productive investment, thus promoting their transfer to farmland [
27]. The study proves that the transferring households have realized large-scale operation through the transfer of farmland, which has a significant effect in improving the efficiency of resource allocation and increasing food production [
28].
2.2. Research Hypothesis
Agriculture, unlike other industries, is greatly affected by climate; thus, climate change has exacerbated the vulnerability of agricultural production [
29]. Farmers have problems with inaccurate and untimely access to agricultural information during the agricultural production process, which leads to crop yield reductions due to natural disasters or losses due to market fluctuations [
30]. Information asymmetry theory points out that a party with relatively poor information is more likely to be at a disadvantage. Digital finance relies on advanced technologies such as the internet and big data to effectively alleviate information asymmetry and promote information dissemination and sharing [
31]. On the other hand, digital financial platforms can provide farmers with climate-related information more conveniently and extensively and expand information acquisition channels through data flow and information flow [
32]. Farmers can use digital financial platforms to obtain accurate and timely information; better understand information such as climate forecasts, market dynamics, and planting technologies; and rationally plan planting and management strategies based on local conditions to avoid climate risks and ensure the production of rice and other grains. On the other hand, the use of digital finance effectively reduces the cost of information searches [
33]. Digital finance can overcome the barriers of time and space, achieve a high efficiency and low cost through data integration and disintermediation, satisfy farmers’ demand for climate information, and mitigate the moral hazard and adverse selection problems caused by information asymmetry [
32]. Additionally, digital finance can improve the accessibility of borrowing to farmers in both traditional lending and private lending to ensure that farmers with financial needs receive capital when they change their production behavior by adopting climate adaptive behaviors to cope with climate change [
34]. Meanwhile the adoption of adaptive measures by farmers has a significant positive impact on food production, with higher food production by farmers who take measures compared to those who do not have adaptive behaviors [
35]. At the same time, the development of digital finance can help guide the flow of digital industries and social capital to rural areas, thereby promoting the substitution of capital for labor in the agricultural production process [
18] and enabling various rural economic organizations to achieve digitalization and intelligent chemical production. The introduction of agricultural remote sensing equipment, irrigation facilities, and other machinery has compensated for the shortage of agricultural labor and promoted agricultural production efficiency [
5]. The above-mentioned information leads to the following hypothesis:
Hypothesis 1. Digital financial development helps increase rice production.
The problem of difficult and expensive financing has always existed in the “three rural areas”. On the one hand, the urban–rural dual structure has led to the structural mismatch of financial resources between urban and rural areas. Subsequently, the financial needs of rural areas cannot be effectively met [
36], and the financial constraints have affected the normal production activities of rural residents. On the other hand, funds in the rural financial market are mostly invested in agribusinesses, agricultural cooperatives, etc., and ordinary small farmers still face financing difficulties [
37]. In particular, farmers engaged in agricultural production lack collateral and credit information compared to non-agricultural farmers. Agriculture is affected by natural, geographical, and other uncertainties, which increases the credit cost and credit risk of financial institutions [
38], making the financial constraints faced by farmers engaged in agricultural production even more severe. Digital finance has powerful functions and is widely used. Various electronic information technologies, such as the internet, big data, and cloud computing, can be used to reduce the entry threshold of financial services and the total cost of financial transactions, improving the coverage and service efficiency of financial services [
39],which can effectively overcome the high cost of financing and information asymmetry in rural areas and alleviate the problems of difficult and expensive financing in the agricultural sector. It has become an important driving force to improve people’s livelihoods and promote agricultural development [
32]. First, digital finance can provide financial services at a lower cost. Digital financial institutions need only to invest a large amount of money in system construction, product research and development, etc., in the initial stage. After such investment is officially put into use, the marginal cost is low, and the coverage can overcome the limitations of time and space [
40]. Second, with the help of digital finance, especially digital payments, financial institutions can integrate a large amount of fragmented and unstructured network user information to provide credit support and improve credit availability for rural residents who lack mortgages and guarantees [
41]. Finally, digital finance can expand rural funding sources. There is a large supply and demand gap in the rural credit market. Online lending in digital finance relies on digital technology to match the supply and demand of borrowers and lenders, improve the efficiency of fund use, and increase rural funding sources [
42]. By meeting the financing needs of rural residents, digital finance enables rural residents to introduce advanced agricultural production technologies [
43], purchase large-scale agricultural machinery and equipment [
19], and ultimately expand the scale of agricultural production and increase rice production output [
44]. The abovementioned information leads to the following hypothesis:
Hypothesis 2. Digital finance increases rice production by expanding the credit scale.
Agricultural insurance transfers agricultural risks and improves the effectiveness of farmers’ grain planting, thereby enhancing farmers’ confidence in agricultural production, motivating farmers to expand planting areas and increasing food production. It plays an important role in ensuring agricultural production and national food security [
45]. The digital finance that has emerged in recent years has used modern information technologies such as the internet to improve the financial availability of rural residents and provide opportunities for the development of agricultural insurance [
46]. First, due to the rapid development of digital finance, farmers can access relevant knowledge related to risk management through the mobile internet, which helps them to correctly understand the functions of agricultural insurance, improve their financial literacy, and enhance their willingness to participate in insurance. At the same time, digital technology can overcome the time and space limitations of farmers purchasing agricultural insurance, change the way in which farmers participate in agricultural insurance, and improve the convenience of farmers participating in insurance [
47]. Second, digital finance based on digital technologies such as cloud computing and big data can effectively alleviate the information asymmetry between the supply and demand sides of agricultural insurance [
48]. With the development of digital finance, insurance companies can collect information on policyholders through big data and artificial intelligence technologies. On the one hand, they can accurately profile policyholders, capture the needs of farmers in a timely manner, and innovatively develop personalized agricultural products that better meet the needs of farmers’ insurance products [
46]. On the other hand, the development of digital finance has improved both the pricing ability of agricultural insurance and the problem of adverse selection [
49]. It can also provide massive amounts of data for the risk control management of insured persons and improve the service quality of the risk management of insurance institutions [
50]. At the same time, combined with satellite images, disaster areas can be quickly identified, thereby reducing assessment costs and improving claim settlement efficiency. The abovementioned information leads to the following hypothesis:
Hypothesis 3. Digital finance increases rice production by increasing farmers’ willingness to participate in insurance.
On the one hand, according to Metcalfe’s Law, the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of internet users. Therefore, the greater the number of users who use the network, the greater the utility each user obtains, and the more the “value added” continues to grow exponentially [
51]. As the degree of digitalization in our country continues to increase and user stickiness continues to increase, the average cost and marginal cost of digital finance built on mobile phones and the internet will gradually decrease due to the increase in network users. The benefits generated and brought about by digital finance will continue to increase. With exponential growth, the law of diminishing returns in the traditional economy has changed. On the other hand, although the inclusive nature of digital finance can give underdeveloped areas a “late-mover advantage” and catch up with developed areas at a faster pace, there is still an imbalance in the development of digital finance in China. Digital finance is based on the internet and big data, blockchain, and other technologies; thus, it will first be produced and applied to economically developed large cities [
52]. With the development of digital finance, the coverage breadth, depth of use, and digital degree of digital finance will expand in underdeveloped areas. Only when there is a significant improvement among disadvantaged groups will the role of digital finance in promoting economic development be significantly improved [
53]. Therefore, when digital finance develops to a certain level, its impact on regional economic development will reach an inflection point. In the agricultural field, when the network foundation in rural areas becomes increasingly complete and the digital information technology accessibility of underdeveloped groups continues to increase, the cost of digital financial services will continue to decrease, financial coverage will be effectively expanded, and long-tail groups will have greater access to financial services. This process will continue to improve and promote the diversification of funding sources for agricultural production, thereby ensuring food production and promoting an increase in food output [
54]. The abovementioned information leads to the following hypothesis:
Hypothesis 4. There is a threshold effect on the impact of digital financial development on rice yield.
Digital finance is an emerging form of finance formed by integrating modern technology into traditional finance, and under the coat of big data, cloud computing, and other digital technologies, the essence of its realization of capital financing has not changed. At the same time, compared with traditional finance, digital finance, based on its own characteristics, has unique types of risk, including information technology risk, “long-tail risk” and fraud risk [
55]. Therefore, preventing digital financial risks and strengthening financial regulation is an inevitable choice to achieve financial stability [
56]. The intensity and direction of financial supervision may affect the development direction of digital finance and play a key role in the healthy development of digital finance [
57]. Financial supervision mainly affects the development of digital finance and the increase in rice production in two ways. On the one hand, insufficient financial supervision may lead to vicious competition between traditional financial institutions and digital financial institutions, which will lead to the disorderly expansion of digital finance, resulting in data privacy security risks, technical operational risks, consumer rights risks, etc. [
58], ultimately through risk contagion and spillover effects. Thus, systemic financial risks are increased, and the role of digital finance in promoting food production is weakened [
59]. On the other hand, appropriate financial regulatory measures such as cracking down on and punishing illegal activities and deepening the application of internet technology will help relevant financial institutions to efficiently and accurately identify and resolve systemic financial risks and prevent some companies from exploiting the low threshold of digital finance to conduct illegal activities. Financial arbitrage encourages financial business innovation [
60], protects not only healthy competition but also the inclusive development of digital finance, and improves the ability to explore new paths when the food system faces risks. The abovementioned information leads to the following hypothesis:
Hypothesis 5. Financial regulation has a positive regulatory effect on the process of increasing rice yields empowered by digital finance.