Unveiling Wheat’s Future Amidst Climate Change in the Central Ethiopia Region
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area Description
2.2. Species Occurrence Points or Sample Location Data
2.3. Environmental Variables
2.4. Variable Importance and Collinearity Test for Variable Selection
2.5. Modelling Algorithms
2.5.1. Maxent Model
2.5.2. Random Forest
2.5.3. Boosted Regression Trees
2.5.4. Generalised Linear Model
2.5.5. Ensemble Model
2.6. Evaluation of Model Performance
3. Results and Discussions
3.1. Model Fitting and Performance
3.2. Contribution of Environmental Variables Affecting Wheat Cultivation in CER
3.3. Current Climate Suitability of Wheat in the CER
3.4. Wheat Habitat Suitability under Future Climate Scenarios
3.5. Limitations of the Study
4. Conclusions and Future Directions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Code | Name | Units |
---|---|---|
Bio1 | Annual Mean Temperature | °C |
Bio2 | Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp–min temp)) | °C |
Bio3 | Isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (×100) | - |
Bio4 | Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation ×100) | °C |
Bio5 | Max Temperature of Warmest Month | °C |
Bio6 | Min Temperature of Coldest Month | °C |
Bio7 | Temperature Annual Range (Bio5-Bio6) | °C |
Bio8 | Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter | °C |
Bio9 | Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter | °C |
Bio10 | Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter | °C |
Bio11 | Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter | °C |
Bio12 | Annual Precipitation | Mm |
Bio13 | Precipitation of Wettest Month | Mm |
Bio14 | Precipitation of Driest Month | Mm |
Bio15 | Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) | Fraction |
Bio16 | Precipitation of Wettest Quarter | Mm |
Bio17 | Precipitation of Driest Quarter | Mm |
Bio18 | Precipitation of Warmest Quarter | Mm |
Bio19 | Precipitation of Coldest Quarter | Mm |
Elevation | Elevation | m.a.s.l |
TPI | Topographic positioning index | - |
Solar | Solar radiation | kJ m−2 day−1 |
Methods | AUC | TSS |
---|---|---|
Random Forest (RF) | 0.9 | 0.68 |
Maxent | 0.86 | 0.62 |
Boosted regression tree (BRT) | 0.85 | 0.6 |
Generalised Linear Model (GLM) | 0.85 | 0.61 |
Ensemble model | 0.94 | 0.76 |
Environmental Variables | RF | Maxent | BRT | GLM | Mean |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean diurnal range (Bio2) | 9.1 | 13.1 | 2.8 | 13.8 | 9.7 |
Iso-thermality (Bio2/Bio7) (×100) (Bio3) | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 6.2 |
Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation ×100) (Bio4) | 11.8 | 15.4 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 14.3 |
Min Temperature of Coldest Month (Bio6) | 12.4 | 23.2 | 9.7 | 22.2 | 16.9 |
Precipitation of wettest month (Bio13) | 23.1 | 25.7 | 34.3 | 31.7 | 28.7 |
Precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) | 3.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
Precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18) | 3.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
Precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19) | 18.1 | 6.1 | 25.6 | 1.7 | 12.9 |
Solar Radiation | 8.3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 4.2 |
Topographic positioning index (tpi) | 4.3 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 2.3 |
Total sum | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
RF | Maxent | BRT | GLM | Ensemble | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Area | % | Area | % | Area | % | Area | % | Area | % | |
Not suitable | 6640 | 54 | 4491 | 37 | 3077 | 25 | 6058 | 50 | 3594 | 29 |
Low suitability | 4000 | 33 | 3467 | 28 | 6411 | 33 | 4535 | 37 | 4947 | 41 |
Moderately suitable | 1420 | 12 | 2664 | 22 | 2578 | 21 | 1451 | 12 | 3067 | 25 |
Highly suitable | 143 | 1 | 1580 | 13 | 137 | 1 | 158 | 1 | 595 | 5 |
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Senbeta, A.F.; Worku, W.; Gayler, S.; Naimi, B. Unveiling Wheat’s Future Amidst Climate Change in the Central Ethiopia Region. Agriculture 2024, 14, 1408. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14081408
Senbeta AF, Worku W, Gayler S, Naimi B. Unveiling Wheat’s Future Amidst Climate Change in the Central Ethiopia Region. Agriculture. 2024; 14(8):1408. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14081408
Chicago/Turabian StyleSenbeta, Abate Feyissa, Walelign Worku, Sebastian Gayler, and Babak Naimi. 2024. "Unveiling Wheat’s Future Amidst Climate Change in the Central Ethiopia Region" Agriculture 14, no. 8: 1408. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14081408