Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Routine Sea Level and Operations
1.2. Data-Driven Conventional Tides
1.3. Real Time Observations
2. Forecast System Description
2.1. Motivation
2.2. Superposition
2.3. Input: Data Assimilating Primitive Equation Forecasts
2.4. Input: Tidal Harmonics
- full set of tidal harmonics: typically 114 constituents.
- subset assigned apriori to be primarily non-gravitational in expression: Sa, SSa, Mm, Msf and S1.
2.5. Input: Bias Correction
3. Evaluation
3.1. Geographic Overview
3.2. Forecast Goodness as Routine Guidance
3.3. Highlighted Behaviour
3.4. Skill Summary: Non-Tidal Information Decay
3.5. Skill Summary: Comparison Against ‘Tide + Persisted Residual’
4. Role of Bias Correction Component
5. Discussion
5.1. Adequacy and Value
5.2. Spatial Interpolation
5.3. Extensions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
aggSL | Aggregate Sea Level |
AHD | Australian Height Datum |
ATGF | Astronomical Tide Producing Forces |
BoM | Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
HAT | Highest Astronomical Tide—conventional tidal plane |
LAT | Lowest Astronomical Tide—conventional tidal plane |
LIB | Local Inverse Barometer Approximation |
MDT | Mean Dynamic Topography |
MSL | Mean Sea Level—conventional tidal plane |
MOM | Modular Ocean Model |
NWP | Numerical Weather Prediction |
OceanMAPS | Ocean Model, Analysis and Prediction System |
RMSE | Root Mean Square Error |
SLA | Sea Level Anomaly |
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Taylor, A.; Brassington, G.B. Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 33. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030033
Taylor A, Brassington GB. Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2017; 5(3):33. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030033
Chicago/Turabian StyleTaylor, Andy, and Gary B. Brassington. 2017. "Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 5, no. 3: 33. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030033