A Phenological Model for Olive (Olea europaea L. var europaea) Growing in Italy
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Source
2.2. Developmental Rate (DR) Function
2.2.1. Linear DR Function
2.2.2. Nonlinear DR Function
2.2.3. Using DRs to Simulate Olive Phenology
- Equation (1) when a simple linear DR is adopted:
- Equation (2) when both temperature and daylength are explanatory variables:
- Equation (3) when nonlinear DR is adopted as follows:
2.3. K-Fold Cross-Validation (KfCV) and Final Model Calibration
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Site | Latitude | Longitude | Varieties |
---|---|---|---|
Montepaldi (Tuscany, FI) | 43.66 | 11.14 | Carolea, Coratina, Picholine, Frantoio, Leccino, Moraiolo, Pendolino |
Villasor (Sardinia, CA) | 39.38 | 8.91 | Carolea, Coratina, Picholine, Bosana, Tonda di Cagliari |
Valenzano (Apulia, BA) | 41.03 | 16.85 | Carolea, Coratina, Picholine, Nocellara Etnea |
Torre Alegra (Sicily, CT) | 37.41 | 15.00 | Carolea, Coratina, Picholine, Moresca, Tonda di Iblea |
BeliceMAre (Sicily, TP) | 37.60 | 12.85 | Carolea, Picholine, Biancolilla, Nocellara Etnea, Nocellara Messinese |
Rende (Calabria, CS) | 39.36 | 16.23 | Carolea, Coratina, Picholine, Cassanese, Nocellara Messinese |
Prepo (Umbria, PG) | 42.99 | 12.26 | Carolea, Coratina, Picholine, Frantoio, Moraiolo |
BBCH Scale | Description |
---|---|
01 | Foliar buds start to swell and open |
03 | Foliar buds lengthen and separate from base |
07 | External small leaves open, not completely separated |
11 | First leaves completely separated |
50 | Inflorescence buds leaf axils completely closed |
51 | Inflorescence buds start to swell |
55 | Flower cluster totally expanded |
61 | Beginning of flowering |
65 | Full flowering, at least 50% of flowers open |
68 | Majority of petals fallen or faded |
69 | End of flowering, non-fertilized ovaries fallen |
71 | Fruits at 10% of final size |
75 | Fruits at 50% of final size |
80 | Fruit becoming light green or yellowish |
81 | Beginning of fruit coloring |
85 | Increasing specific fruit coloring |
89 | Harvest maturity |
92 | Overripe with fruits that start to fall |
99 | At least 50% of fruits fallen |
From BBCH | To BBCH | r2 | p-Value | RMSE [days] | MSE [days] | S * (St. Dev) [days] | N. Sites | N. Data | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01 | 61 | Model of Equation (1) | 0.95 | 2.0 × 10−5 | 4.7 | −0.3 | 64 (22) | 6 | 50 |
Model of Equation (2) | 0.96 * | 2.7 × 10−6 | 4.3 | −0.8 | |||||
Model of Equation (3) | 0.93 | 6.1 × 10−4 | 6.4 | −3.2 | |||||
07 | 61 | Model of Equation (1) | 0.93 | 3.6 × 10−7 | 5.6 | −0.5 | 60 (22) | 7 | 71 |
Model of Equation (2) | 0.93 * | 2.9 × 10−7 | 5.6 | −0.59 | |||||
Model of Equation (3) | 0.92 | 9.8 × 10−7 | 7.1 | −3.1 | |||||
51 | 61 | Model of Equation (1) | 0.93 | 1.2 × 10−8 | 6.6 | −2.0 | 37 (22) | 7 | 84 |
Model of Equation (2) | 0.89 * | 2.4 × 10−7 | 6.9 | −1.1 | |||||
Model of Equation (3) | 0.91 | 1.5 × 10−7 | 7.3 | −2.9 | |||||
01 | 65 | Model of Equation (1) | 0.96 | 7.7 × 10−7 | 3.9 | −0.1 | 71 (21) | 6 | 51 |
Model of Equation (2) | 0.98 * | 1.6 × 10−7 | 3.5 | −0.2 | |||||
Model of Equation (3) | 0.93 | 7.4 × 10−6 | 6.8 | −3.7 | |||||
07 | 65 | Model of Equation (1) | 0.93 | 4.6 × 10−7 | 5.6 | −0.5 | 68 (22) | 7 | 72 |
Model of Equation (2) | 0.93 * | 5.6 × 10−7 | 5.6 | −0.3 | |||||
Model of Equation (3) | 0.92 | 2.9 × 10−7 | 8.1 | −4.6 | |||||
51 | 65 | Model of Equation (1) | 0.93 | 1.8 × 10−7 | 5.7 | −1.0 | 44 (21) | 7 | 85 |
Model of Equation (2) | 0.92 * | 2.0 × 10−7 | 5.8 | −0.7 | |||||
Model of Equation (3) | 0.86 | 1.2 × 10−5 | 14.8 | −5.4 |
From BBCH | To BBCH | r2 | p-Value | DR = a + bT | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a | b | T0 = −a/b | ||||
01 | 61 | 0.85 | 1.8 × 10−21 | −0.0180 | 0.0025 | 7.2 |
07 | 61 | 0.79 | 1.1 × 10−25 | −0.0253 | 0.0031 | 8.2 |
51 | 61 | 0.62 | 5.9 × 10−19 | −0.0817 | 0.0075 | 10.9 |
01 | 65 | 0.89 | 1.2 × 10−25 | −0.0132 | 0.0020 | 6.7 |
07 | 65 | 0.81 | 1.7 × 10−27 | −0.0187 | 0.0024 | 7.8 |
51 | 65 | 0.74 | 2.9 × 10−26 | −0.0540 | 0.0050 | 10.7 |
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Di Paola, A.; Chiriacò, M.V.; Di Paola, F.; Nieddu, G. A Phenological Model for Olive (Olea europaea L. var europaea) Growing in Italy. Plants 2021, 10, 1115. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants10061115
Di Paola A, Chiriacò MV, Di Paola F, Nieddu G. A Phenological Model for Olive (Olea europaea L. var europaea) Growing in Italy. Plants. 2021; 10(6):1115. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants10061115
Chicago/Turabian StyleDi Paola, Arianna, Maria Vincenza Chiriacò, Francesco Di Paola, and Giovanni Nieddu. 2021. "A Phenological Model for Olive (Olea europaea L. var europaea) Growing in Italy" Plants 10, no. 6: 1115. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants10061115