Climate

46 pages, 7539 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Temperature Anomalies on Industrial Production

by Luccas Assis Attílio, Monica Escaleras and João Ricardo Faria

Climate 2026, 14(3), 75; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030075 - 20 Mar 2026

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Countries around the world are committed to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, significant challenges remain—particularly the economic consequences of climate change. Using a GVAR model for 17 economies over the period 2001M1–2021M12, we explore how temperature anomalies affect industrial production through [...] Read more.

Countries around the world are committed to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, significant challenges remain—particularly the economic consequences of climate change. Using a GVAR model for 17 economies over the period 2001M1–2021M12, we explore how temperature anomalies affect industrial production through four potential mechanisms: food prices, credit costs, exchange rates and investment. Our theoretical model demonstrates that temperature anomalies lower agricultural production, which drives up food prices and reduces real wages. This in turn leads to lower investment and production in the industrial sector. Our empirical results indicate that rising temperature anomalies are associated with a decrease in industrial production and investment, as well as the depreciation of domestic currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. Additionally, we observe that the influence of temperature anomalies is more pronounced in hot regions than in cold regions. Our investigation underscores the importance of financial markets and investment as potential transmission channels for the impact of climate change on industrial production. This study provides empirical evidence to support policymaking aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change, thereby helping countries to advance toward key SDGs such as no poverty, zero hunger, and climate action. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Adaptation Costs and Finance)

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17 pages, 6594 KB

Open AccessArticle

Zonal Propagation of the Indian Basin MJO Across Varying Background Wind and Seasonal Background Wind States

by Paul E. Roundy

Climate 2026, 14(3), 74; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030074 - 20 Mar 2026

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Abstract

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) varies seasonally. Both moist and dry dynamical processes would contribute to this seasonality. Previous results have suggested strong dependence of MJO phase speed on planetary-scale upper tropospheric Kelvin waves interacting with the mean flow. Composites and phase speed spectra [...] Read more.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) varies seasonally. Both moist and dry dynamical processes would contribute to this seasonality. Previous results have suggested strong dependence of MJO phase speed on planetary-scale upper tropospheric Kelvin waves interacting with the mean flow. Composites and phase speed spectra assess the association between the Indian Basin MJO circulation and convection with variations in equatorial upper tropospheric background wind patterns, including seasonal variability. Results show that the fastest eastward propagation over the Indian Ocean (>10 ms⁻¹) tends to occur during northern spring when background upper tropospheric easterlies are weakest. Northern winter signals typically advance eastward between 4 and 10 ms⁻¹. Strong easterly background wind conditions during northern summer usually prevent propagation eastward along the equator from the Western Indian Ocean. Results also show relative amplitude variations between the MJO’s upper and lower tropospheric zonal wind signals, with the upper tropospheric circulation signals being disproportionately stronger than the lower tropospheric ones over the Western Hemisphere to East Africa. The upper tropospheric easterly wind anomalies grow over the Western Indian Ocean first, as specific humidity increases in lower tropospheric easterly wind to the east. Then, lower tropospheric westerly wind emerges west of the emerging convection, suggesting that lower tropospheric wind change depends more directly on moist processes than the upper tropospheric wind. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Dynamics and Modelling)

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19 pages, 1918 KB

Open AccessArticle

Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Sanitation Systems in Lahan Municipality, Nepal: A Scenario-Based Analysis

by Prayon Joshi, Prativa Poudel, Andrés Hueso, Kundan Lal Shrestha and Kabindra Pudasaini

Climate 2026, 14(3), 73; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030073 - 19 Mar 2026

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Abstract

Greenhouse gas emissions from sanitation systems remain underquantified, particularly when considering the entire service chain. Previous studies have largely focused on emissions from containment, with limited attention to later stages such as collection, transport, treatment and disposal. To address this gap, this research [...] Read more.

Greenhouse gas emissions from sanitation systems remain underquantified, particularly when considering the entire service chain. Previous studies have largely focused on emissions from containment, with limited attention to later stages such as collection, transport, treatment and disposal. To address this gap, this research comprehensively estimates greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sanitation systems in Lahan municipality, Nepal. We used an extended version of the IPCC-based Tier-1 approach. Data collection included a household survey and key informant interviews. In scenario A, the baseline total annual emissions are 8.7 Gg CO₂e, mostly from the digestion of faecal sludge in the containment (7.3 Gg CO₂e). In scenario B, when a projected faecal sludge treatment plant (FSTP) is built and in operation, annual emissions reach 10.0 Gg CO₂e, driven by methane emitted by the anaerobic digester in the plant. Scenario C considers climate mitigation strategies: increasing the share of households emptying their containments, increased emptying frequency and adding of methane capture in the FSTP. This can reduce annual emissions to 7.9 Gg CO₂e per year, which is 21% less than in scenario B. Our results suggest that methane capture in the FSTP is the most critical mitigation strategy. Full article

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22 pages, 4817 KB

Open AccessArticle

Comparative Analysis of LSTM and SARIMA for Global Temperature Forecasting: Impact of Regional Trends and Emissions

by Arambage Navodya Gimhani Ranasinghe, Nausheen Saeed and Paria Sadeghian

Climate 2026, 14(3), 72; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030072 - 16 Mar 2026

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Abstract

Climate change poses escalating risks to environmental, economic, and social systems worldwide, making accurate temperature forecasting a critical component of climate impact assessment and mitigation planning. Advances in data-driven modelling have expanded the range of tools available for analysing climate time series, complementing [...] Read more.

Climate change poses escalating risks to environmental, economic, and social systems worldwide, making accurate temperature forecasting a critical component of climate impact assessment and mitigation planning. Advances in data-driven modelling have expanded the range of tools available for analysing climate time series, complementing traditional statistical approaches. The continued increase in global surface temperatures, driven primarily by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, underscores the need for forecasting models capable of capturing complex and non-linear climate dynamics. This study compares the predictive performance of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network with a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model using historical global temperature data. The results show that LSTM outperforms SARIMA at the global scale, achieving an R² of 0.9846, RMSE of 0.1528 °C, and MAE of 0.1198 °C, representing a 50.7% reduction in error relative to the SARIMA baseline (R² = 0.9364; RMSE = 0.3100 °C). However, regional analyses reveal heterogeneous performance, with LSTM overestimating seasonal variability in certain regions, while SARIMA exhibits greater local stability. Sectoral emission analysis identifies agriculture and energy production as the dominant global contributors, with substantial regional variation. These findings suggest that hybrid modelling approaches may offer improved robustness for regional climate assessment and policy applications. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Dynamics and Modelling)

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27 pages, 1438 KB

Open AccessArticle

Investigating the Influence of Galactic Cosmic Ray-Modulated Aerosol Optical Depth on Near-Surface Air Temperature Variability over the Past Two Decades

by Faezeh Karimian Sarakhs, Salvatore De Pasquale and Fabio Madonna

Climate 2026, 14(3), 71; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030071 - 16 Mar 2026

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Abstract

Atmospheric aerosols modulate Earth’s radiation balance through direct effects and through their role as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), contributing to variability in near-surface temperature (NST). Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) further influence aerosol–cloud interactions by enhancing particle formation and growth, but combined aerosol optical [...] Read more.

Atmospheric aerosols modulate Earth’s radiation balance through direct effects and through their role as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), contributing to variability in near-surface temperature (NST). Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) further influence aerosol–cloud interactions by enhancing particle formation and growth, but combined aerosol optical depth (AOD)–GCR effects on NST remain poorly constrained across climates. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we examine joint influences on NST anomalies at three neutron-monitoring stations, Oulu, Newark, and Hermanus, during 2000–2022. The sites share similar geomagnetic cutoffs but contrasting climates, enabling separation of ionization from geomagnetic shielding. Multiple linear regression (MLR) captures AOD effects and their modulation by GCR flux. Adding an interaction term (AOD × GCR) improves fit, raising adjusted R² from 0.22→0.31 (Oulu), 0.37→0.52 (Newark), and 0.69→0.78 (Hermanus). ECMWF reanalysis shows hydrophilic organic matter aerosol (OMA) dominates (0.19, 0.29, 0.41 µg kg⁻¹ at Oulu, Newark and Hermanus), with sulphate elevated at Oulu/Newark and coarse sea salt at Hermanus. Elevated OMA and sulphate at Oulu/Newark imply GCR-enhanced fine CCN and cooling, whereas humid, sea-salt-rich Hermanus favors ion-mediated growth of larger hygroscopic particles that increase longwave trapping and warming. Findings provide site-specific evidence that GCR ionization modulates aerosol processes and contributes to regional NST variability, informing improved parameterizations in climate models. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Aerosol–Cloud–Precipitation–Climate Interactions: Observation, Modeling and Mechanism)

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25 pages, 1525 KB

Open AccessArticle

Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change, Adaptation Practices, and Barriers in the Delmarva Peninsula, USA

by Erasmus Kabu Aduteye and Stephan Tubene

Climate 2026, 14(3), 70; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030070 - 16 Mar 2026

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Abstract

Global climate change poses increasing challenges to agricultural production and global food security by intensifying temperature and precipitation variability and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. While several studies have examined farmers’ perceptions of climate change in the United States, limited empirical [...] Read more.

Global climate change poses increasing challenges to agricultural production and global food security by intensifying temperature and precipitation variability and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. While several studies have examined farmers’ perceptions of climate change in the United States, limited empirical evidence exists for the Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia (Delmarva) Peninsula. This study assessed farmers’ perceptions of climate change in the Delmarva region and identified key factors influencing these perceptions, as well as adaptation strategies employed to address climate-related risks. Primary data were collected through a structured survey administered to farmers across the Delmarva Peninsula, while secondary data consisted of historical temperature and precipitation records obtained from meteorological stations in the region. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize farmer perceptions and adaptation practices, and a logit regression model was applied to examine socioeconomic and experiential factors influencing perceptions of climate change. Analysis of climate data revealed notable variability in temperature and rainfall patterns, with the warmest temperatures occurring during June, July, and August and peak rainfall generally observed between May and September. Survey results showed that a large majority of respondents (88.2%) perceived that climate change is occurring. Logit model results indicated that farmers’ age, education level, acceptance of climate change adaptation practices, and observed changes in climate over the past 5–10 years positively influenced perceptions of climate change. Adaptation strategies included selective crop choices, avoiding cultivation in flood-prone areas, adoption of soil conservation practices, and the use of crop insurance. Full article

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26 pages, 5847 KB

Open AccessArticle

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Alpine Treeline Ecotone in Response to Climate Warming Across the Eastern Slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains

by Behnia Hooshyarkhah, Dan L. Johnson, Locke Spencer, Hardeep S. Ryait and Amir Chegoonian

Climate 2026, 14(3), 69; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030069 - 13 Mar 2026

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Abstract

Mountain ecosystems are susceptible to climate change, and alpine treeline ecotones (ATEs) represent one of the significant responsive indicators of climate-driven environmental change. This study examines long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of the ATE across the Eastern Slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains (ESCR) from [...] Read more.

Mountain ecosystems are susceptible to climate change, and alpine treeline ecotones (ATEs) represent one of the significant responsive indicators of climate-driven environmental change. This study examines long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of the ATE across the Eastern Slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains (ESCR) from 1984 to 2023, with the objective of assessing whether regional climate warming has influenced ATE extent and elevation across different aspects and watersheds. Multi-decadal Landsat imagery, ERA5-Land temperature data, and topographic variables were integrated within a Google Earth Engine (GEE) framework to map ATEs using the Alpine Treeline Ecotone Index (ATEI), a probabilistic approach designed to capture transitional vegetation zones. Temporal trends were evaluated using non-parametric statistics, correlation analyses, and watershed- and aspect-based comparisons. Results indicate that the total alpine treeline ecotone (ATE) area in the ESCR was approximately 13.3% larger in 2023 than in 1984. However, the temporal evolution of ATE extent and elevation was non-monotonic, and linear trend analyses did not detect statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends over the full study period. ATE elevation and expansion exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with greater changes occurring on north- and northwest-facing slopes and within selected watersheds. In contrast, summer (July–September) temperatures increased significantly (+2.84 °C), exceeding global land-only warming rates, and vegetation greenness (NDVI) showed a strong, statistically significant positive relationship with temperature. These findings show that while climate warming has clearly increased vegetation productivity, elevational ATE dynamics remain spatially heterogeneous and temporally non-synchronous with summer temperature trends. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effects of Climate Change on Ecosystem Behavior Across Varied Environments)

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24 pages, 3366 KB

Open AccessReview

Unveiling the Evolution of Adaptation Economics: A Systematic and Bibliometric Review of Collaborations, Methodologies, and Research Frontiers 2010–2023

by María del Pilar Salazar-Vargas, Yosune Miquelajauregui and Hilda Guerrero-Garcia-Rojas

Climate 2026, 14(3), 68; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030068 - 13 Mar 2026

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Abstract

Adaptation economics is critical for guiding decision-makers in reducing climate vulnerability, evaluating the most suitable action while allocating scarce financial, human, and technological resources. However, this economic evaluation faces significant methodological challenges due to diverse contexts, intangible impacts, and uncertainties. This research aims [...] Read more.

Adaptation economics is critical for guiding decision-makers in reducing climate vulnerability, evaluating the most suitable action while allocating scarce financial, human, and technological resources. However, this economic evaluation faces significant methodological challenges due to diverse contexts, intangible impacts, and uncertainties. This research aims to characterize academic trends, gaps, and opportunities of collaboration in the economic evaluation of adaptation over the period 2010–2023. Fifty-eight articles were selected following the PRISMA framework and were analyzed using bibliometric analysis, supported by R-Bibliometrix. Additionally, a thematic review of abstracts was conducted to identify economic evaluation approaches. Articles were included if they applied an explicit economic method. This study uses Scopus-indexed literature and abstract-based classification, which may limit generalizability. Across this corpus, the results reveal that adaptation economics, although conceptually evolved, remains geographically concentrated and methodologically fragmented. At the geographical level, research production shows 14.78% annual growth, yet this remains concentrated in the Global North, with limited participation from Latin America, Africa, and South Asia. At the conceptual level, the studies demonstrate a significant thematic transformation, moving from topics linked to diagnosis and planning toward concepts of greater complexity, such as uncertainty. In contrast, and although six methodological approaches were identified, conventional efficiency-based methods (such as cost–benefit) dominate 44.8% of applications. This analysis provides a research agenda to advance more context-sensitive and methodologically diverse economic approaches for adaptation decision-making. Recommendations include fostering South–South and South–North collaboration and developing practical and simplified decision support tools, especially for vulnerable regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Adaptation Costs and Finance)

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32 pages, 2929 KB

Open AccessArticle

Saharan Dust Across the Wider Mediterranean Region, Part A: Development and Validation of the Saharan Dust Flux and Transport Index

by Harry D. Kambezidis

Climate 2026, 14(3), 67; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030067 - 10 Mar 2026

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Abstract

This study develops and validates the Saharan Dust Flux and Transport Index (SDFTI) using a 22-year dataset (2003–2024) of dust-related and dynamical variables across the Mediterranean. The index integrates six components (surface-particulate matter, satellite-derived desert-dust optical depth, free-tropospheric dust mass, transport score, North-Atlantic [...] Read more.

This study develops and validates the Saharan Dust Flux and Transport Index (SDFTI) using a 22-year dataset (2003–2024) of dust-related and dynamical variables across the Mediterranean. The index integrates six components (surface-particulate matter, satellite-derived desert-dust optical depth, free-tropospheric dust mass, transport score, North-Atlantic Oscillation and Oceanic Niño Indices) combined through a physically calibrated weighting scheme. To assess the stability of the formulation, three alternative variants are constructed (dust-enhanced, dynamics-enhanced, and equal-weight) and evaluated across four Mediterranean sub-regions using seasonal means, inter-annual anomalies, component correlations, and extreme-event detection. The results show that the SDFTI is highly robust over the full 2003–2024 period. Across all regions, the calibrated variants reproduce nearly identical seasonal cycles (e.g., spring–summer peaks of +0.53 to +0.58 in Western Mediterranean), identify the same dusty and non-dusty years (2008–2012 minima, 2021–2022 maxima), and capture the same major dust outbreaks (e.g., March 2022, June 2021). SDFTI consistently provides the most balanced representation of dust-mass loading and transport dynamics, while the equal-weight variant diverges as expected due to its lack of physical calibration. Overall, the SDFTI offers a stable and regionally coherent measure of Saharan dust transport. The methodological framework (variable selection, normalisation, weighting, and sensitivity testing) is general and can be adapted to other dust-affected regions worldwide. Full article

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17 pages, 4364 KB

Open AccessArticle

Estimated Impacts of Future Environmental Conditions on Water Quality in the Chesapeake Bay Beyond Midcentury

by Lewis C. Linker, Gopal Bhatt, Richard Tian and Raymond Najjar

Climate 2026, 14(3), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030066 - 9 Mar 2026

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Abstract

In order to set nutrient and sediment load targets for the Chesapeake Bay, projections of changing environmental conditions through 2055 have been previously considered. This article expands the analysis through 2085. Under future ensemble scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs), temperature and precipitation [...] Read more.

In order to set nutrient and sediment load targets for the Chesapeake Bay, projections of changing environmental conditions through 2055 have been previously considered. This article expands the analysis through 2085. Under future ensemble scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs), temperature and precipitation trends for the Chesapeake Bay watershed prior to midcentury have a rate of change more than twice that of the post-midcentury trend. Prior to midcentury, runoff and nutrient loading to the Bay estuary are projected to increase. In this analysis, model simulations for post-midcentury suggest the trend of increasing runoff may be reduced. The combined effect of a reduced trend in temperature and precipitation increases post-midcentury with continued sea level rise in the ensemble scenarios leads to a decreasing trend in Chesapeake hypoxia post-midcentury, resulting in a leveling off of dissolved oxygen water quality degradation. Full article

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12 pages, 3588 KB

Open AccessArticle

Wildfires as Emerging Dominant Arctic and Subarctic Extremes

by James E. Overland, Varunesh Chandra and Muyin Wang

Climate 2026, 14(3), 65; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030065 - 6 Mar 2026

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Abstract

For the last three summers in Canada (2023–2025), and episodically in Siberia over the previous decade and a half, severe consequences from wildfires represent major ecological and societal impacts: the displacement of inhabitants; destruction of buildings, timber and infrastructure; and far-field air pollution. [...] Read more.

For the last three summers in Canada (2023–2025), and episodically in Siberia over the previous decade and a half, severe consequences from wildfires represent major ecological and societal impacts: the displacement of inhabitants; destruction of buildings, timber and infrastructure; and far-field air pollution. Wildfire occurrence is increasingly supported every summer by persistent surface warming and widespread atmospheric moisture deficits. The two recent major Canadian fire years in 2023 and 2025 show some contrasts: 2023 was dominated by an early June event with preconditioning, whereas 2025 saw repeated single events spanning June to early August, culminating in a significant late-summer event. Events in both years were associated with North Pacific–North American atmospheric blocking regimes. Over the longer term, 2003–2025, normalized June–September wildfire fraction anomalies in the Canadian sector (45–60° N, 150–60° W) show the post-2023 period as having new, clear, record-breaking fire intensities, highlighting wildfires as emerging dominant Arctic–subarctic extremes. Siberia shows an increase after 2010. Although multiple environmental Arctic–subarctic extremes are ongoing—such as sea-ice loss, storms, and glacial ice loss—the impacts from wildfires represent preeminent, growing societal consequences. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Land-Atmosphere Interactions Under Fire Regimes: From Surface Disturbances to Climate Feedbacks)

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23 pages, 2368 KB

Open AccessArticle

Wind Energy Potential over the Eastern Mediterranean During the Summer Season: Evaluation and Future Projections from CMIP6

by Ioannis Logothetis, Maria-Elissavet Koukouli, Athanasios Kerchoulas, Dimitrios-Sotirios Kourkoumpas, Adamantios Mitsotakis, Panagiotis Grammelis, Kleareti Tourpali and Dimitrios Melas

Climate 2026, 14(3), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030064 - 5 Mar 2026

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Abstract

Renewables are key pillars of the European Union’s (EU) strategy for green transition and climate neutrality. In particular, wind energy lies at the core of a sustainable framework regarding the energy policy (i.e., European Green Deal and REPowerEU plan) supporting clean, secure, and [...] Read more.

Renewables are key pillars of the European Union’s (EU) strategy for green transition and climate neutrality. In particular, wind energy lies at the core of a sustainable framework regarding the energy policy (i.e., European Green Deal and REPowerEU plan) supporting clean, secure, and affordable electricity for a resilient future. In this study, Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations were used to investigate the efficiency of GCMs to capture and reproduce the spatial and temporal features of Wind Energy Potential (WEP). The GCMs that have been used in this study are available in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The analysis focuses on high-interest regions of the Eastern Mediterranean (EMed) during the summer season (JJA). The ERA5 reanalysis dataset was used as a reference data set. Furthermore, projected changes in WEP were calculated under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (the “moderate”, SSP2-4.5 and the “fossil-fueled development”, SSP5-8.5 scenarios), covering the period from 1970 to 2099. The results indicate that most GCMs underestimate mean WEP, with model performance ranging from “poor” to “good” scores based on the Kling–Gupta Efficiency index (−0.45 < KGE < 0.5). Future WEP projections show no consistent spatial patterns among GCMs. By the late 21st century, WEP is projected to decrease (about 10–15%) over the Southeastern Aegean and increase between Crete and Libya (about 10–15%) relative to the baseline historical period (1970–2000) under both SSP scenarios. Finally, findings provide elements for the WEP evolution over the Eastern Mediterranean, contributing to the EU energy policy. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Wind‑Speed Variability from Tropopause to Surface)

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20 pages, 2925 KB

Open AccessArticle

Filling the Gaps: Creating a Consistent Rainfall Dataset for Maranhão State, Brazil (1987–2023)

by Gunter de Azevedo Reschke, Carlos Wendell Soares Dias, Ronaldo Haroldo Nascimento de Menezes, Fabricio Pires Chagas and Celso Henrique Leite Silva-Junior

Climate 2026, 14(3), 63; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030063 - 3 Mar 2026

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Abstract

This study presents the development and validation of a consistent rainfall database for Maranhão State, Brazil, covering historical records from 1987 to 2023 obtained from 100 rainfall stations (90 from ANA and 10 from INMET). A total of 314 missing records across 74 [...] Read more.

This study presents the development and validation of a consistent rainfall database for Maranhão State, Brazil, covering historical records from 1987 to 2023 obtained from 100 rainfall stations (90 from ANA and 10 from INMET). A total of 314 missing records across 74 stations were corrected using the Regional Weighting method, restricted to stations within the same Homogeneous Precipitation Region (HPR). The consistency of the reconstructed series was verified using the Double Mass method, which yielded coefficients of determination (R²) above 0.97 for all stations, confirming the robustness of the procedure. Statistical analyses with the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s Slope estimator did not identify significant long-term trends, although weak positive slopes were detected in some regions (e.g., HPR3: +9.98 mm/year; HPR6: +3.70 mm/year), while HPR10 showed a negative slope (−0.99 mm/year). The novelty of this work lies in consolidating the first homogeneous and validated rainfall database for Maranhão, providing a reliable foundation for assessing regional climate variability. The results provide a solid foundation for future applications, including drought monitoring, agricultural planning, water resource management, and adaptation strategies under climate change scenarios. Full article

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17 pages, 2517 KB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing Multiple-Year Climate Variability Impacts on Coconut Production and Price in Sri Lanka

by Kimesha Irangika Silva and Kenichi Matsui

Climate 2026, 14(3), 62; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030062 - 3 Mar 2026

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Abstract

The assessment of climate variability impacts on crop production and price varies by what factors studies consider, including annuals and perennials. Unlike annual crops, climate impacts on perennial crops like coconuts require a multiple-year assessment. Although previous studies have examined climate effects on [...] Read more.

The assessment of climate variability impacts on crop production and price varies by what factors studies consider, including annuals and perennials. Unlike annual crops, climate impacts on perennial crops like coconuts require a multiple-year assessment. Although previous studies have examined climate effects on coconut production, there is a critical gap in understanding multiple-year impacts of climate variability on coconut production and price. Therefore, this paper aims to fill this gap by assessing the extent to which climate variability affects coconut production and prices in Sri Lanka, the fourth largest coconut producer in the world. For this purpose, we analyzed rainfall, temperature, average drought months, coconut production, coconut cultivation area, and coconut retail price from 2010 to 2022. We then created and administered five regression models to illustrate the impact of climate variables for a single year and multiple years on coconut production, yield, and price. The results indicate that rainfall in the previous year is the most critical determinant for production (p = 0.014) and yield (p = 0.032), while drought intensity and temperature shocks show delayed negative effects on production. Lagged temperature shocks and supply shortages significantly increased nominal coconut retail prices. A temperature increase by 1 °C in the previous year raised prices by approximately LKR 36 per nut. After adjusting for inflation, only temperature (p = 0.002) effects was found significant, indicating that climate-induced supply constraints dominate real price changes. Our three-year analysis showed that drought conditions, together with rainfall and temperature variability, reduced production with a delayed effect (p = 0.026). These findings highlight the importance of incorporating multiple-year climate impacts into adaptation and price stabilization policies for coconut and other perennial crops. Full article

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