Economies

15 pages, 674 KiB

Open AccessArticle

How Far Are NEET Youth Falling Behind in Their Non-Cognitive Skills? An Econometric Analysis of Disparities

by Garen Avanesian, Marina Borovskaya, Marina Masych, Ludmila Dikaya, Victoria Ryzhova and Valeria Egorova

Economies 2024, 12(1), 25; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010025 - 19 Jan 2024

Viewed by 2699

Abstract

Youth not in education, employment, or training (NEET) refers to the most vulnerable group in the transition from school to work. While much research focuses on institutional factors behind the NEET incidence, the current study approaches the problem of the NEET youth from [...] Read more.

Youth not in education, employment, or training (NEET) refers to the most vulnerable group in the transition from school to work. While much research focuses on institutional factors behind the NEET incidence, the current study approaches the problem of the NEET youth from the perspective of non-cognitive skills. For measuring non-cognitive skills, the Big Five personality characteristics (openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, neuroticism) as well as grit were analyzed. The analysis was carried out using propensity score matching based on the data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS HSE) for 2016. This study shows that the majority of young people in the NEET group come from the poorest families. Nearly half of the NEET youth are not only not working, but they are also not looking for a job either. The analysis revealed that NEET youth fall behind in different non-cognitive abilities, with statistically significant differences in conscientiousness, extraversion, and grit, as well as a greater severity of neuroticism. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Labour and Education)

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21 pages, 2206 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Agricultural Produce Supply Chain Network of Capsicum: Empirical Evidence from India

by Pankaj Thakur, Piyush Mehta, Priyanka Lal, Rashmi Chaudhary, Saswat Kumar Pani, Akash Gaurav Singh, Chhaya Devi, Kamlesh Verma and Prashant Sharma

Economies 2024, 12(1), 24; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010024 - 18 Jan 2024

Viewed by 3150

Abstract

Vegetables are important for both nutritional and economic stability and contribute significantly to the agricultural landscape of India. The demand for vegetables is rising, driven by population growth and increased awareness of their benefits. This empirical study highlights the dynamics of agricultural production [...] Read more.

Vegetables are important for both nutritional and economic stability and contribute significantly to the agricultural landscape of India. The demand for vegetables is rising, driven by population growth and increased awareness of their benefits. This empirical study highlights the dynamics of agricultural production supply chain networks of capsicum crops in the northwestern Himalayan region, specifically Himachal Pradesh, India. The study employs the Acharya approach to analyse the various marketing channels utilized by farmers in the capsicum supply chain. This methodology sheds light on the economic nuances at each stage and examines marketing channels, costs, margins, price spread and marketing efficiency. Simultaneously, the Garrett ranking method is applied to discern and prioritize constraints faced by farmers. This comprehensive approach ensures a nuanced understanding of the economic and logistical intricacies of capsicum marketing. The analysis of marketing channels reveals five distinct pathways employed by farmers, with Channel-C (Producer–Commission Agent–Retailer–Consumer) standing out as the most dominant, representing 47.25% of the total quantity. Moreover, Channel-A (Producer–Consumer) proves to be the most cost-effective for producers and boasts the highest producer price, while Channel-C, involving commission agents, incurs higher costs. This suggests a preference for intermediaries, emphasizing factors like market access and negotiation skills, whereas Channel-D (Producer–Local Trader–Wholesaler–Retailer–Consumer) has the highest gross marketing margin, emphasizing the trade-offs between efficiency and transaction volume. The results indicate that while Channel-A is the most efficient, it is not the preferred choice due to the lower transaction quantity. Further, the absence of market consultation services, inadequate road infrastructure, high commission charges, nonremunerative prices and untimely availability of vehicles are the major constraints in marketing. The findings of the study call for targeted interventions to create a more robust and farmer-friendly marketing environment for capsicum crops in the region. The study proposes targeted recommendations, emphasizing collaborative efforts between stakeholders, government bodies and farmers. This research contributes to the academic discourse and also offers actionable insights for researchers and policymakers, fostering sustainability, profitability and equity within the capsicum supply chain. Full article

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16 pages, 290 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Globalization and Income Inequality in Developing Economies: A Comprehensive Analysis

by Mosab I. Tabash, Yasmeen Elsantil, Abdullah Hamadi and Krzysztof Drachal

Economies 2024, 12(1), 23; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010023 - 18 Jan 2024

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 24964

Abstract

Around the world, people are becoming more and more worried about how globalization will affect their standard of living. According to the literature, globalization has resulted in the marginalization of the impoverished populations in developing economies and has exacerbated inequality, while the opposite [...] Read more.

Around the world, people are becoming more and more worried about how globalization will affect their standard of living. According to the literature, globalization has resulted in the marginalization of the impoverished populations in developing economies and has exacerbated inequality, while the opposite may also be true. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of globalization on income inequality. The study used two-stage least squares (2SLS) to study the influence of globalization on income inequality in 18 developing countries from 1991–2021. Utilizing the KOF index of globalization, it is determined that globalization, together with its three aspects, has a negative effect on income inequality among developing economies. Evidence demonstrates that the combination of trade openness and foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a significant role in reducing inequality among developing economies. We recommend developing economies actively support globalization in terms of trade and FDI in accordance with the findings. By expanding trade opportunities and opening up markets, globalization can benefit developing nations. This may result in a rise in FDI, the creation of jobs, and technological developments. Governments can contribute to raising the living standards of their inhabitants, lowering rates of poverty, and closing the income gap by promoting globalization. Although the study emphasizes the well-established link between globalization and income inequality, it focuses on the effects of various globalization dimensions, emphasizing the need to comprehend how different dimensions of globalization, namely economic, political, and social globalization affects inequality in developing economies. Full article

17 pages, 1107 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Interest Rate Spillover on Output Gap: A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

by Josephine Wuri, Yuliana Rini Hardanti, Laurentius Bambang Harnoto, Caecilia Wahyu Estining Rahayu and Christina Heti Tri Rahmawati

Economies 2024, 12(1), 22; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010022 - 17 Jan 2024

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2210

Abstract

The recent multidimensional crisis has harmed the global economy because countries are currently integrated. In this study, we examine the spillover effect of the United States (US) interest rate on the output gap of ASEAN+3 countries using the dynamic spatial Durbin model from [...] Read more.

The recent multidimensional crisis has harmed the global economy because countries are currently integrated. In this study, we examine the spillover effect of the United States (US) interest rate on the output gap of ASEAN+3 countries using the dynamic spatial Durbin model from 2010 to 2020. After controlling for various institutional variables, this analysis further examines the effect of the exchange rate and the COVID-19 pandemic on the output gap. This model captures the spatial interactions and short- and long-term effects of interest rate monetary policies. The findings indicate a negative spillover effect of the US central bank interest rate on ASEAN+3 countries’ output gap. The result had significant direct and indirect short-term effects. Additionally, exchange rates negatively affect the output gap. The output gap decreased because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is expected to be useful for monetary authorities in developing the best monetary policy for economic recovery. Full article

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25 pages, 2247 KiB

Open AccessArticle

On the Asymmetric Relation between Inflation and Growth in Mexico: A NARDL Approach

by José Carlos Trejo-García, Ramón Valencia-Romero, María De Lourdes Soto-Rosales and Francisco Venegas-Martínez

Economies 2024, 12(1), 21; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010021 - 17 Jan 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2867

Abstract

The effects of various geopolitical tensions, conflicts between countries and the global post-pandemic COVID-19 have caused an acceleration in the price level in many countries around the world. This research focuses on Mexico since its monetary policy has created intricate interactions between inflation [...] Read more.

The effects of various geopolitical tensions, conflicts between countries and the global post-pandemic COVID-19 have caused an acceleration in the price level in many countries around the world. This research focuses on Mexico since its monetary policy has created intricate interactions between inflation and growth in the short and long term, maintaining recently one of the highest real interest rates in Latin America (on average 5.75% vs. the US 2.3%). This paper examines the asymmetric link between the National Consumer Price Index and the Global Economic Activity Index in Mexico during the period 1994–2023. To do this, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Delay (NARDL) model is used with monthly data, which will allow the relationship between both variables to be more adequately investigated. The main empirical finding is that upward or downward shocks to the consumer price index have caused different effects in magnitude and sign on economic growth over time. Finally, several reasonable, practical, and feasible recommendations are provided for the design of the monetary policy considering non-linear effects. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability)

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22 pages, 2929 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Education Component and the Inclusion of the Enrolment Survival Measure: Provincial Equitable Share (PES)

by Sithembiso Felix Mthimkhulu and Dev Tewari

Economies 2024, 12(1), 20; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010020 - 15 Jan 2024

Viewed by 1833

Abstract

This paper investigates the intergovernmental transfer systems in South Africa, more specifically, the underlying determinants and formula of the unconditional grants of the education component of the Provincial Equitable Share (PES). The PES formula is a weighted shares formula that depends on the [...] Read more.

This paper investigates the intergovernmental transfer systems in South Africa, more specifically, the underlying determinants and formula of the unconditional grants of the education component of the Provincial Equitable Share (PES). The PES formula is a weighted shares formula that depends on the demographic shares of the provinces (population) to determine the equitable share outcomes to be transferred to individual provinces. We find that the variables used have two main weaknesses: Firstly, the enrolment variable, which could be contaminated with school repeats and dropouts, is too broad to be an effective measure for representing the real beneficiaries of the transfers. Secondly, infrequent updates about the school-age cohort population variables render the desired PES grant transfers for education outdated as well as serially inconsistent. The paper also provides an analysis of the PES formula’s mathematical construct, followed by a few suggested variables to improve the relevance and accuracy of the formula of the revenue transfer. One such improvement is demonstrated by the inclusion of the Enrolment Survival Measure (ESR). More research and data are required to extrapolate nuanced results and to understand the socio-economic impacts of adopting these new variables in the PES formula going forward. Full article

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20 pages, 1878 KiB

Open AccessArticle

When and for Whom Does Growth Becomes Jobless?

by Mindaugas Butkus, Laura Dargenytė-Kacilevičienė, Kristina Matuzevičiūtė, Dovilė Ruplienė and Janina Šeputienė

Economies 2024, 12(1), 19; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010019 - 15 Jan 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2513

Abstract

The results of previous research suggest that the elasticity of employment with respect to output is not constant within each phase of the business cycle and might depend on the maturity of that phase. Nevertheless, empirical evidence is almost non-existent. Using the unemployment [...] Read more.

The results of previous research suggest that the elasticity of employment with respect to output is not constant within each phase of the business cycle and might depend on the maturity of that phase. Nevertheless, empirical evidence is almost non-existent. Using the unemployment gap as the proxy for the maturity of the business cycle phase, this paper seeks to determine heterogeneous elasticity across different business cycle phases. Furthermore, we aim to evaluate specific elasticities for separate demographic groups, considering gender, age, and educational attainment level, to identify the most vulnerable to jobless growth. Our specification is based on the employment version of Okun’s law, and estimates are provided for the whole EU-27 panel covering the period from 2000 to 2022. Our results suggest that elasticity is higher when the unemployment gap is positive and increasing and lower when the gap decreases, regardless of the business cycle phase. Thus, it can be argued that the possibility of growth increasing employment is very limited when the economy operates at its potential level (full employment) for all demographic groups. Full article

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20 pages, 1600 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Asymmetric and Nonlinear Foreign Debt–Inflation Nexus in Brazil: Evidence from NARDL and Markov Regime Switching Approaches

by Mesbah Fathy Sharaf, Abdelhalem Mahmoud Shahen and Badr Abdulaziz Binzaid

Economies 2024, 12(1), 18; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010018 - 15 Jan 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2260

Abstract

This paper augments the sparse literature on the inflationary impact of foreign debt in Brazil while addressing methodological caveats in previous studies. We depart from the linearity assumption and employ two nonlinear techniques: the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and a Markov [...] Read more.

This paper augments the sparse literature on the inflationary impact of foreign debt in Brazil while addressing methodological caveats in previous studies. We depart from the linearity assumption and employ two nonlinear techniques: the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and a Markov Switching Regression (MSR) to investigate the connection between foreign debt and inflation within a multivariate framework. The analyses consider the presence of structural breaks via assessing variable stationarity using the Zivot and Andrew unit root test and incorporating a residual-based cointegration test proposed by Gregory and Hansen. Additionally, we apply a multiple structural breakpoints test by Bai and Perron to determine the presence of structural breaks in the impact of foreign debt on inflation. Our findings robustly indicate that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive effect, while the nominal effective exchange rate has a negative effect on inflation in both the short and long run. The NARDL model reveals that only positive changes in foreign debt have a statistically significant negative effect on inflation in the short run, whereas both positive and negative foreign debt changes significantly affect inflation in the long run. The results from the MSR model are generally consistent with those of the NARDL model. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

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26 pages, 4137 KiB

Open AccessReview

Changes in SME Business Due to COVID-19—Survey in Slovakia and the Czech Republic

by Andrea Janáková Sujová and Václav Kupčák

Economies 2024, 12(1), 17; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010017 - 12 Jan 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2621

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to analyse and compare the consequences of the coronacrisis on the entrepreneurship of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Slovakia and the Czech Republic with the aim of identifying the determinants of changes in entrepreneurship. The secondary [...] Read more.

The objective of the paper is to analyse and compare the consequences of the coronacrisis on the entrepreneurship of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Slovakia and the Czech Republic with the aim of identifying the determinants of changes in entrepreneurship. The secondary empirical research was carried out based on the analysis of secondary and primary data. The analysis used economic indicators of SMEs, governmental measures and surveys of the views of entrepreneurs. The analysis used data from statistical databases and official reports from government institutions and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), as well as data from primary surveys conducted by NGOs. Descriptive statistics, financial analysis and cross-comparison methods were used to process the data. The results revealed changes in the business of SMEs in the Czech Republic and Slovakia during the crisis, such as the adaptation of business strategies, improvement of flexibility and acceleration of digitalisation processes. These changes highlighted the importance of building business agility. The summary of the main changes in SME business based on both secondary data and primary surveys and the perception of state anti-pandemic aid by managers as feedback to governments represent the main contributions of the paper. Full article

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19 pages, 2967 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Predicting the Productivity of Municipality Workers: A Comparison of Six Machine Learning Algorithms

by Priya Bijalwan, Ashulekha Gupta, Anubhav Mendiratta, Amar Johri and Mohammad Asif

Economies 2024, 12(1), 16; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010016 - 12 Jan 2024

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2253

Abstract

One of the most significant areas of local government in the world is the municipality sector. It provides various services to the residents and businesses in their areas, such as water supply, sewage disposal, healthcare, education, housing, and transport. Municipalities also promote social [...] Read more.

One of the most significant areas of local government in the world is the municipality sector. It provides various services to the residents and businesses in their areas, such as water supply, sewage disposal, healthcare, education, housing, and transport. Municipalities also promote social and economic development and ensure democratic and accountable governance. It also helps in encouraging the involvement of communities in local matters. Workers of Municipalities need to maintain their services regularly to the public. The productivity of the employees is just one of the main important factors that influence the overall organizational performance. This article compares various machine learning algorithms such as XG Boost, Random Forest (RF), Histogram Gradient Boosting Regressor, LGBM Regressor, Ada Boost Regressor, and Gradient Boosting Regressor on the dataset of municipality workers. The study aims to propose a machine learning approach to predict and evaluate the productivity of municipality workers. The evaluation of the overall targeted and actual productivity of each department shows that out of 12 different departments, only 5 departments were able to meet their targeted productivity. A 3D Scatter plot visually displays the incentive given by the department to each worker based on their productivity. The results show that XG Boost performs best in comparison with the other five algorithms, as the value of R Squared is 0.71 and MSE (Mean Squared Error) is 0.01. Full article

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13 pages, 292 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Cost Efficiency and Competition Relationship: Evidence from Saudi Arabian Banks and Non-Structural Approaches to Analysis

by Hind Alnafisah and Lama Alwohaibi

Economies 2024, 12(1), 15; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010015 - 5 Jan 2024

Viewed by 2328

Abstract

Over the last two decades, the regulators of the financial services sector in Saudi Arabia have aimed to develop a level of fair competition in the provision of banking services across the country. This paper utilizes non-structural approaches, the H-statistic developed by, and [...] Read more.

Over the last two decades, the regulators of the financial services sector in Saudi Arabia have aimed to develop a level of fair competition in the provision of banking services across the country. This paper utilizes non-structural approaches, the H-statistic developed by, and the Granger causality test. The second approach involves determining the Granger-based causal relationship between banks’ cost efficiency and competition via data envelope analysis (DEA) using the generalized method of moments (GMM) panel. The study’s data were drawn from 11 traditional banks in Saudi Arabia, covering the period from 2015 to 2021 (yearly data). The results of the non-structural approach, i.e., the H-statistic, demonstrate that the average fund rate had a positive effect on competition; however, the physical capital price index, the index of leverage, and the credit risk negatively affect the total revenue. Furthermore, a positive H-statistic value reflects the positive causality between competition and cost efficiency (higher efficiency results in a higher level of competition). The DEA results indicate that competition in the year 2021 was influenced by the competition level of the previous year (2020); moreover, the relationship between the previous year’s cost efficiency Granger value, the greater availability, and the lower prices of banking products had a significant influence on the competition in the years under consideration (since a positive significant result from the test is available), which reflects the higher level of market structure and the greater availability and lower prices of banking products. Cost efficiency in the year 2021 was also positively influenced by the cost efficiency level of the previous year (2020), with competition forcing efficiency via the cutting of costs. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Market Efficiency, Anomalies, and Important Current Issues in Economics and Finance)

22 pages, 4938 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Economic Shocks and Perceptions of Efficiency Changes: The Cases of Lithuania and Latvia

by Rasa Subačienė, Ramunė Budrionytė, Jolanta Žemgulienė, Ivita Faituša and Kristina Rudžionienė

Economies 2024, 12(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010014 - 4 Jan 2024

Viewed by 2237

Abstract

In recent years, economic uncertainty has been heightened, including as a result of the economic shocks generated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine War, and the unstable international political situation. These had a global impact on various spheres and influenced all economic processes. [...] Read more.

In recent years, economic uncertainty has been heightened, including as a result of the economic shocks generated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine War, and the unstable international political situation. These had a global impact on various spheres and influenced all economic processes. However, the lack of available data has made it difficult to investigate the latest global events and their consequences. The latest studies continue to concentrate on the COVID-19 economic crisis. This study investigates accounting specialists’ perceptions of the changes in employee and company efficiency and changes in the main performance indicators during the economic crisis provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic. The research employed an online questionnaire administered to accountants at various levels. Descriptive statistical data analysis methods were used for the evaluation of the survey results. The results show that 86% of respondents had the possibility of working online before the quarantine period, around 30% of respondents indicated an increase in work efficiency when working online, and more than 40% of respondents indicated that the company’s main performance indicators (revenue, cost of sales, profit) remained stable under the quarantine regime. During the pandemic, Latvia experienced greater fluctuations than Lithuania in the main performance indicators, but overall, both countries maintained a positive tendency toward stability and recovery. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics after the COVID-19)

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9 pages, 233 KiB

Open AccessCommunication

What Predicts Long-Term Absenteeism, and Who Disappears from the Workforce When Enterprises Downsize?

by Jarle Aarstad and Olav Andreas Kvitastein

Economies 2024, 12(1), 13; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010013 - 1 Jan 2024

Viewed by 1995

Abstract

This paper primarily studies how wages predict long-term absenteeism in enterprises. In addition, it studies who disappears from the workforce when downsizing. Analyzing Norwegian enterprise data using dynamic unconditional quasi-maximum likelihood fixed-effects panel regression and general methods of moments panel regression with instrumental [...] Read more.

This paper primarily studies how wages predict long-term absenteeism in enterprises. In addition, it studies who disappears from the workforce when downsizing. Analyzing Norwegian enterprise data using dynamic unconditional quasi-maximum likelihood fixed-effects panel regression and general methods of moments panel regression with instrumental variables, we find that increasing average wages decreases average long-term absenteeism. As the effect barely abates the following year, it likely reflects highly skilled and motivated employees in good health receiving a wage premium and not a stimulus boosting overall work attitudes, which is likely short-lived. Wage inequality increases absenteeism, indicating that increasing low earners’ wages relative to those earning high ones decreases absenteeism, but the effect is short-lived and disappears the following year. In addition, average age and education tend to decrease absenteeism, but female labor participation increases it, likely due to maternity leave. Also, increasing the workforce increases absenteeism, indicating that handling many new employees is challenging. When enterprises downsize, young and low earners initially disappear from the workforce, but the following year, older and high earners share the same fate. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Labour Economics)

14 pages, 1069 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Supply Chain Interconnectedness in Times of Crises: A Gravity Model with DiD Analysis of COVID-19 Effects on Central and Eastern European Trade

by Arūnas Burinskas, Viktorija Cohen and Jolanta Droždz

Economies 2024, 12(1), 12; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010012 - 31 Dec 2023

Viewed by 2284

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of COVID-19-induced disruptions on supply chains, specifically focusing on the interconnectedness of supply chains and the transmission effects they cause. The gravity model framework, together with difference-in-differences analysis, is employed to analyze monthly trade patterns among Central and [...] Read more.

This paper explores the impact of COVID-19-induced disruptions on supply chains, specifically focusing on the interconnectedness of supply chains and the transmission effects they cause. The gravity model framework, together with difference-in-differences analysis, is employed to analyze monthly trade patterns among Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, Western European countries, and other trading partner countries. The model presented accounts for the country’s roles in global value chains (GVCs) by incorporating data related to exports, imports of intermediate and capital goods, and imports of final consumption goods. CEE countries have demonstrated a certain resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, they were not immune to adverse consequences due to disrupted supply chains, primarily in the imports of intermediate and capital goods. We find that the countries that suffered from the COVID-19 pandemic the least demonstrated remarkable resilience against disrupted GVCs. The findings of our study enrich the literature on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically for the CEE region, by providing a framework for understanding the pandemic’s impact on international trade. The results show that supply shock might be greater than demand shocks on production and trade dynamics. Furthermore, our results suggest that policymakers seek adaptability to changing supply and demand patterns, while enterprises should consider broader diversification both within the region and locally. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Global Value Chains—Development Challenges in Uncertain Circumstances)

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20 pages, 2050 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Predicting Food Consumption to Reduce the Risk of Food Insecurity in Kazakhstan

by Aigerim Duisenbekova, Monika Kulisz, Alina Danilowska, Arkadiusz Gola and Madina Ryspekova

Economies 2024, 12(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010011 - 29 Dec 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2723

Abstract

In modern times, the risk of food insecurity is a concern for policymakers at the global and national levels, as the issue of hunger and malnutrition still exists. Food security is vulnerable to any crises. The main goal of this paper is to [...] Read more.

In modern times, the risk of food insecurity is a concern for policymakers at the global and national levels, as the issue of hunger and malnutrition still exists. Food security is vulnerable to any crises. The main goal of this paper is to create a neural-network-based predictive model to forecast food consumption trends in Kazakhstan, aiming to reduce the risk of food insecurity. The initial phase of this study involved identifying socioeconomic factors that significantly influence food consumption behaviors in Kazakhstan. Principal component analysis was used to identify key variables, which became the basis for modelling artificial neural networks. It was revealed that the poverty rate, GDP per capita, and food price index are pivotal determinants of food consumption in Kazakhstan. Two models were prepared: to predict food consumption on a national scale per capita per month, and to predict the percentage distribution of various food categories. The prediction of the percentage distribution of various food categories in Kazakhstan demonstrates the positive modelling quality indicators and strengthens the assumption that network modelling can be used. Predictions for total food consumption over the next three years indicate declining metrics, raising concerns about the potential food insecurity risk in Kazakhstan. Full article

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15 pages, 1312 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Issue of Measuring Household Consumption Expenditure

by Emilia Madudova and Tatiana Corejova

Economies 2024, 12(1), 9; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010009 - 27 Dec 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 7156

Abstract

Household consumption expenditure is an important measure of economic activity as it reflects the spending behavior of households and their purchasing power. The measurement of household consumption expenditure is critical for analyzing economic growth, inflation, and overall economic performance. In order to create [...] Read more.

Household consumption expenditure is an important measure of economic activity as it reflects the spending behavior of households and their purchasing power. The measurement of household consumption expenditure is critical for analyzing economic growth, inflation, and overall economic performance. In order to create budgets and financial plans, it is necessary to know and understand the relationship between the size of households in terms of the number of members, the number of children, and their consumption needs. The aim of the research was to determine the statistical significance of the relationship between household size and consumer spending at the national (Slovak Republic) level and also to analyze the relationship between household size and spending on food as a significant component of consumer spending. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied to examine the relationship between household size and consumer spending. Regression analysis with linear regression and fitting was used to determine the relationship between consumer spending and household size with different numbers of children. The results analyze the correlations and test the hypothesis of a significant difference in the types of consumption expenditure in relation to different household sizes (number of children). Results confirm significant differences in consumption expenditure between different household sizes, which confirms the importance of these results. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Consumer Behaviour and Healthy Food Consumption)

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21 pages, 1770 KiB

Open AccessArticle

An Empirical Study of the Impact of the Euro on Cross-Country Diversification

by Demissew Diro Ejara and Kamal Upadhyaya

Economies 2024, 12(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010008 - 27 Dec 2023

Viewed by 1853

Abstract

The euro was launched, on 1 January 1999, as a common currency for members of the European Union that complied with the Maastricht Treaty. The Maastricht Treaty calls for the coordination of major macroeconomic policies, such as inflation, budget balance, public debt, and [...] Read more.

The euro was launched, on 1 January 1999, as a common currency for members of the European Union that complied with the Maastricht Treaty. The Maastricht Treaty calls for the coordination of major macroeconomic policies, such as inflation, budget balance, public debt, and long-term interest rates. Theoretically, the coordination of these policy issues and the launch of a common currency will increase the degree of market integration among member countries. This paper empirically tests the impact of the euro on the degree of market integration by looking at the comovement of the European equity markets and a sample of OECD equity markets. Weekly stock market indices for the period covering seven years before the euro and seven years after the euro was implemented was used. The results show that cross-country divergences in stock markets continued after the euro. There is no evidence of cointegration after the adoption of the euro. Cross-country portfolio diversification continues to be beneficial even among euro countries. Full article

(This article belongs to the Collection International Financial Markets and Monetary Policy)

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17 pages, 349 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Dynamics of Fund Absorption: Evaluating the Efficacy of EU Structural Funds in Mitigating Regional Inequalities—Calabrian Case

by Guzmán A. Muñoz-Fernández, Angela Bertucci, José E. Ramos-Ruiz and Maria Luisa Garo

Economies 2024, 12(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010010 - 27 Dec 2023

Viewed by 1970

Abstract

The European Union aims for territorial cohesion, with human capital as a key factor. Assessing how investment in regional human capital enhances this cohesion is therefore essential. This study assesses the impact of the EU Structural Funds (ESFs) in Calabria (Italy), a region [...] Read more.

The European Union aims for territorial cohesion, with human capital as a key factor. Assessing how investment in regional human capital enhances this cohesion is therefore essential. This study assesses the impact of the EU Structural Funds (ESFs) in Calabria (Italy), a region grappling with economic challenges and a brain drain phenomenon. Aimed at fostering regional cohesion, ESFs have been directed towards supporting Calabrian graduates’ pursuit of master’s degrees, intending to incentivize their retention or return postgraduation. A comprehensive survey of the beneficiaries of these subsidies was carried out to determine their employability in the region and the probability of the return of migrants, analyzed by logistic regression of the data. Results demonstrate a dual effect: while the quality of education and EU funding positively influence graduates to work in Calabria, acquiring advanced skills paradoxically diminishes this propensity. Moreover, although the likelihood of returning to Calabria for those working elsewhere does increase, ESF support counterintuitively reduces this probability. The findings reveal a vicious cycle; they equip graduates with high-level skills that facilitate their access to the labor market but simultaneously encourage their migration due to more favorable conditions elsewhere. It is suggested that synergies between ESF-funded policies and those supported by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) should be encouraged. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Development: Opportunities and Constraints)

17 pages, 1301 KiB

Open AccessArticle

External Debt Determinants: Do Macroeconomic and Institutional Ones Matter for Selected ASEAN Developing Countries?

by Edi Harsono, Andi Kusumawati and Nirwana Nirwana

Economies 2024, 12(1), 7; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010007 - 26 Dec 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3887

Abstract

Developing nations have the task of effectively managing their external debt. The government is urged to comprehend the decisive component in managing its external debt, despite the varying viewpoints among economists. In addition, the world sees the need for institutional quality to optimize [...] Read more.

Developing nations have the task of effectively managing their external debt. The government is urged to comprehend the decisive component in managing its external debt, despite the varying viewpoints among economists. In addition, the world sees the need for institutional quality to optimize its economic policy. Institutional quality shows accountability, stability, effectiveness, quality, law, and trust. Our research examines the determinant factors of external debt and discusses the policy to manage external debt. We regress the inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate, trade openness, and institutional quality on external debt. This study also uses moderated regression analysis to examine the interaction between institutional quality and macroeconomic indicators on external debt. We selected 52 samples from five ASEAN developing countries from 2008 to 2019. The first study found that the inflation rate, interest rate, and institutional quality have a negative impact on external debt, while the exchange rate and trade openness have a positive impact on external debt. Next, we were surprised that institutional quality could not moderate the relationship between the inflation rate, exchange rate, and interest rate on external debt. Further, it only moderated the relationship between trade openness and external debt. In the end, we discuss the external debt determinants from the selected ASEAN developing countries with the theories. Full article

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16 pages, 325 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Educational Mismatch and Gender: A Comparison between Industry and Services in Spain

by Elena Lasso-Dela-Vega, José Luis Sánchez-Ollero and Alejandro García-Pozo

Economies 2024, 12(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010006 - 25 Dec 2023

Viewed by 1775

Abstract

This study analysed the presence and influence of educational mismatch in the service and industry sectors in Spain, due to the lack of studies of this phenomenon in the latter sector. We also analyse its effect on wages and its role in creating [...] Read more.

This study analysed the presence and influence of educational mismatch in the service and industry sectors in Spain, due to the lack of studies of this phenomenon in the latter sector. We also analyse its effect on wages and its role in creating a gender wage gap in the returns to a set of professional and personal characteristics. The heterogeneity in the improvement of workers’ qualifications between sectors in Spain and the lack of studies of this phenomenon in the industrial sector motivates interest in this comparative research between industry and services, which includes a gender perspective, given the interest of this topic in wage studies. To this end, an extension of the Mincer wage equation was applied to data from the 2018 Wages Structure Survey conducted by the Spanish National Statistics Institute. The results suggest that educational mismatch has a greater impact on women’s wages in the service sector than on those in the industrial sector and on men’s wages in both sectors. We also found wage differences in the returns to a set of professional and personal characteristics that suggest that the gender wage gap is greater in the service sector than in the industrial sector. Full article

13 pages, 479 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Regulating the Revolving Door of Regulators: Legal vs. Ethical Issues

by Elise S. Brezis

Economies 2024, 12(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010005 - 25 Dec 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2203

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of the revolving door, concentrating not only on the dynamics between regulators and firms but also on whether regulating the revolving door is optimal from the point of view of society. The study explores the trade-off between two [...] Read more.

This paper analyzes the effects of the revolving door, concentrating not only on the dynamics between regulators and firms but also on whether regulating the revolving door is optimal from the point of view of society. The study explores the trade-off between two interconnected aspects related to the revolving door: the ‘lack of competence’ and ‘greed’ of regulators. On the one hand, the revolving door facilitates the recruitment of highly qualified regulators by the government, drawn by the prospect of lucrative future compensation packages. On the other hand, it allows regulators to succumb to greed, enabling them to receive revenues after their term in office. This paper emphasizes that this propensity toward greed can manifest through two distinct channels: ‘regulatory capture’, which is illegal, and ‘abuse of power’, which, while legal, is unethical. This paper highlights that distinguishing whether the behavior of the regulator is either unlawful or unethical is of utmost importance for analyzing the optimal policy concerning regulators. On one end, the capture models advocate for regulated oversight of the revolving door to prevent corruption. On the other end, models of abuse of power, characterized by regulators generating ‘bureaucratic capital’, contribute to the acceptance of the revolving door practice. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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20 pages, 6829 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Effects of Oil Price Volatility on South African Stock Market Returns

by Kongolo Musampa, Joel Hinaunye Eita and Christelle Meniago

Economies 2024, 12(1), 4; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010004 - 22 Dec 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2425

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the response of the South African stock market returns to oil price volatility, based on the daily South African stock market index, using the GARCH-Copula modelling technique. The results of the analysis show evidence of [...] Read more.

The aim of this study is to assess the response of the South African stock market returns to oil price volatility, based on the daily South African stock market index, using the GARCH-Copula modelling technique. The results of the analysis show evidence of an asymmetric impact of fluctuations in oil prices on South African stock market returns, using a copula model specification, particularly the bivariate symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC) copula. The results also revealed that the EGARCH process is the best univariate model to capture oil price volatility. Interestingly, this study also revealed that the tourism industry is most dependent on oil price fluctuations, due to its heavy reliance on transportation costs. The economic implications of this study also suggest that sectors affected by oil price fluctuations need specific long-term and short-term monetary policy strategies. It is recommended that in the short term, expansionary monetary policy could assist in mitigating the impact of higher oil prices, while in the long-term, policies aimed at reducing the volatility in oil prices would be of great help in alleviating its harmful effect on stock market returns. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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25 pages, 3155 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Prioritizing Public Policy Implementation for Rural Development in a Developing Country via Multicriteria Classification

by Diego León Peña-Orozco, María Eugenia Londoño-Escobar, Andrés Mauricio Paredes Rodríguez, Jesús Gonzalez-Feliu and Gonzalo Navarrete Meneses

Economies 2024, 12(1), 3; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010003 - 22 Dec 2023

Viewed by 2221

Abstract

Despite the growing global interest in promoting rural development as a strategy to guarantee food security, in developing countries there are large gaps to achieve a sustainable countryside, mainly in rural areas. This research work delves into a methodological approach definition to establish [...] Read more.

Despite the growing global interest in promoting rural development as a strategy to guarantee food security, in developing countries there are large gaps to achieve a sustainable countryside, mainly in rural areas. This research work delves into a methodological approach definition to establish the baseline for the public policy implementation and prioritize the intervention needs in the different items considered in an integral rural development public policy. The proposed methodology combines a qualitative characterization of needs and goals, a social cartography, a quantitative characterization of indicators and the use of multicriteria classification for prioritizing development policies. Eight localities with sixteen small rural settlements are taken as a research unit, to apply the proposed methodology and determine the implementation level of a public policy. The results show that a set of priority policies that both meet the authorities’ objectives and the population’s needs can be defined. Moreover, a vector of priority is proposed to define the weakest items, as a guide to local government administrations to focus efforts on interventions to achieve greater impacts on the rural community development under study. Finally, via a double field validity assessment, those strategic lines are hierarchized and analyzed regarding their potential relationships, as a social system. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

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14 pages, 447 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of the Transitions and Maintenance Patterns of Physical Activity and Tobacco Smoking on Labor Market Outcomes in South Africa

by Ebenezer Toyin Megbowon

Economies 2024, 12(1), 2; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010002 - 21 Dec 2023

Viewed by 1741

Abstract

(1) Background: Labor market outcomes can be directly or indirectly influenced by the health behavior patterns of the labor force. This study assesses the association between patterns of physical activity and smoking behavior maintenance (and their transitions) and the labor market outcomes of [...] Read more.

(1) Background: Labor market outcomes can be directly or indirectly influenced by the health behavior patterns of the labor force. This study assesses the association between patterns of physical activity and smoking behavior maintenance (and their transitions) and the labor market outcomes of employment participation and formal employment participation. (2) Methods: The sample evaluated in this study comprises adult individuals aged 18 and above from wave 5 of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) survey. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, a chi-square test, and bivariate probit regression techniques. (3) Results: The bivariate probit regression results regarding the impact of health behavior transition and maintenance patterns on labor market outcomes show that transitioning to physically active behavior or maintaining physically active behavior increases the likelihood of participating in the labor market and being employed in the formal sector compared to those ceasing to be physically active over time. Surprisingly, both the maintenance and uptake of smoking behavior increases the probability of the occurrence of both labor market outcome variables. (4) Conclusions: These findings have both explicit and implicit implications that can serve to increase labor force participation probability and to promote healthy behavior. There is a need for community-wide campaigns via promotions and media coverage to promote active physical activity among the labor force group. Also, interventions to support individuals who lack extensive social networks is necessary. The results further highlight the importance of education, rural economic development, and good health status for desirable labor market outcomes. Full article

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19 pages, 349 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Does Economic Growth Attract FDI Inflows? A Dynamic Panel Analysis

by Pascal L. Ghazalian

Economies 2024, 12(1), 1; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010001 - 19 Dec 2023

Viewed by 4547

Abstract

Economic growth is deemed to be a conducive factor in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) as it often confers location advantage to host countries and fosters business confidence. This paper examines the short-run and the long-run effects of economic growth on FDI inflows. [...] Read more.

Economic growth is deemed to be a conducive factor in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) as it often confers location advantage to host countries and fosters business confidence. This paper examines the short-run and the long-run effects of economic growth on FDI inflows. The empirical analysis is conducted through the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) System estimator for dynamic panel models. The main results show significant positive effects of economic growth on FDI inflows, and they indicate that the magnitudes of these effects are statistically comparable over time and do not diminish with higher economic growth levels. They also reveal important variations in the magnitude of these effects across geo-economic regions and over pertinent economic variables such as economic development level, international trade and foreign investment openness, and endowment in natural resources. These findings underscore the significance of developing growth-enhancing policies that are designed on the basis of the economic and geo-economic characteristics of host countries. Such policies could be coupled with international trade and foreign investment openness directions to stimulate stronger responses of FDI inflows to economic growth and mitigate the implications of unfavorable global and regional political conditions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Foreign Direct Investment and Investment Policy (2nd Edition))

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Economies, Volume 12, Issue 1 (January 2024) – 25 articles

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