1. Introduction
Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) is a slowly progressive and clonal myeloproliferative disorder thought to be responsible for 15% to 20% of adult leukemia cases worldwide.
CML is characterized by the presence the Philadelphia chromosome, resulting in the BCR-ABL fusion gene. This genetic abnormality results in the formation of a particular gene product, a constitutively active tyrosine kinase that produces a continued proliferative signal causing the clinical manifestations of CML. Given our understanding of this mechanism, an effort has been made to develop new compounds in order to selectively inhibit the resulting abnormal tyrosine kinase. Since then, several tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) blocking the initiation of the BCR-ABL pathway have been developed and tested in patients with CML. The first TKI developed, which currently remains the first line of CML treatment, is Imatinib Mesylate (Gleevec). However, in spite of the remarkable rate of complete hematological response and complete cytogenetical remission, some cases show resistance or relapse after an initial response (secondary or acquired resistance). The methods involved in overcoming Imatinib resistance consist of the development of new TKIs and the stimulation of an immune response against the disease.
Mathematical models involving differential equations for CML dynamics have been developed mainly in the last 20 years and are based on hematopoiesis models (see, for example [
1,
2,
3,
4,
5,
6,
7,
8]). In the beginning, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) were mostly used, but as the cellular and molecular processes imply a certain time lag, the use of delay differential equations (DDEs) became more appropriate. In this framework, a recent and comprehensive review on mathematical models of leukemia and its treatments can be found in [
3].
The approach of CML evolution (with or without treatment) through DDEs models can be found in many recent studies [
9,
10]. In [
11,
12], DDEs models of CML evolution with implications for the immune system are studied, while in [
9], a complex model describing the competition between healthy and leukemic cell populations and the influence of T-lymphocytes is introduced and analyzed. The paper given in [
13] introduces a two-dimensional system of DDEs for stem cells and mature neutrophils in CML under a periodic treatment. The existence of a strictly positive periodic solution is proved using the Krasnoselskii theorem and the stability of this solution is investigated.
One of the first studies on CML evolution in a model investigating treatment effect including Imatinib resistance through the Goldie–Coldman law was introduced in [
10]. The DDE model is one-dimensional and the state variable is represented by a population of stem-like cells, as they have the property of self-renewal and acquired drug resistance is propagated by this cell population. A more elaborated model for CML dynamics with treatment and resistance, including two state variables, is considered and investigated in [
14].
In this paper, a more complex DDE model for healthy and leukemic CML cell populations subjected to Imatinib treatment is introduced and its equilibrium points and stability properties are analyzed. Imatinib’s pharmacokinetics are considered here through the last two equations and treatment effects, including resistance, are introduced using a Goldie–Coldman approach. In this framework, the present model is more realistic and appropriate than other similar models.
The mathematical model is a system of delay differential equations (DDEs) with seven equations: four describing the time-evolution of healthy and CML cell populations, one describing the evolution of immune cell population and two equations involving Imatinib pharmacokinetics. The state variables of the model are healthy and leukemic cell populations with self-renewal abilities (
and
) called stem-like cells, mature healthy and leukemia leukocytes (
and
), which have lost their self-renewal ability, the immune system represented by the population of anti-leukemia cells, that is, CD8+ cytotoxic T cells (
), the concentration of Imatinib in the absorbtion compartment (
D), and the concentration of active substance in the plasmatic compartment (
P). The system that models CML under Imatinib treatment is
Here,
,
, and
are the controls, defined in what follows, depending on
P, in the following system:
Some assumptions are considered throughout this paper. First, we consider that the healthy and leukemic blood cell populations are in competition for resources. This is reflected in the fact that the feedback functions for self-renewal (
) and for differentiation (
) depend on the sum of healthy and leukemic cells; hence, they are
(
h for healthy and
l for leukemia) where
and
are the maximal rates of self-renewal, respectively, of differentiation,
and
are half of their maximal value and, and
and
control the sensitivity of
or
to changes in the size of the stem-like and mature populations, respectively.
It is assumed that T cells are able to fight leukemia only up to a certain level of leukemia population and then, after this level is exceeded, the T cell population is inhibited by the leukemic cells. Hence, the interaction between the immune system and the leukemic cell population is regulated by the following two feedback functions, describing the effect of T cells on CML cells and the effect of leukemic cells on the immune cell population, respectively:
The evolution of the T cells is modeled starting with a moment when they are already mature, thus skipping all the intermediate levels. Such an approach is similar with that of [
15]. It is assumed that a stem-like cell is capable of undergoing three types of division when it enters the cell cycle; hence, in this model, it is considered that a fraction
,
, of stem-like cells is susceptible to asymmetric division: one daughter cell proceeds to differentiate and the other re-enters the stem cell compartment, while another fraction
,
, is susceptible to differentiate symmetrically with both cells that result following a phase of maturation, and the fraction
,
, is susceptible to self-renewal so both cells that result after mitosis are stem-like cells.
In view of [
16], in the equations for Imatinib pharmacokinetics,
K is the amount of drug administrated, considered as constant. According to [
17], the standard dose of 400 mg is
μM. Also,
is the first order absorption rate and
is the total plasma clearance of drug divided by the volume of distribution of the drug.
It is known that the treatment with Imatinib, targeting the BCR-ABL gene, affects the apoptosis and the proliferation rate of leukemia cells. Its action is considered constant in time, corresponding to a period when, after an initial transitory stage, the effect at the cell level can be seen as a steady one. Also, we consider that Imatinib acts on the cells of the immune system, affecting its maturation and correct functioning. The treatment effects are introduced in the model through the factor in terms of controlling the multiplication of cells, through the factor in the equation of CD8+ T cytotoxic cells and through the mortality rate of stem-like CML cells .
In order to choose the functions
and
, we used the data in [
18]. In a Goldie–Coldman framework, let
represent the initial number of leukemic stem-like cells,
the number of cells resistant to treatment, and
p the probability of mutation where
. Because the standard dose of Imatinib reduces the rate of differentiation 100 times, it follows that
Also, as a dose of 10 μM leads to a 75% decrease in the activation of T cells,
The function modeling the treatment’s effect on the mortality of leukemic stem-like cells, including resistance, can be taken as
with
where
is the half maximum activity concentration,
is a Hill coefficient, and
is the initial number of resistant cells. We take
with
The duration of the cell cycle for healthy and leukemia stem-like cells are and , which are supposed to be independent of the type of division; the time necessary for differentiation into mature leukocytes for healthy and leukemia cells is and , respectively. is the duration of the cell cycle for cytotoxic T cells and where n is the number of antigens depending on divisions. With is the natural apoptosis and is the supplementary one provided by treatment. is an amplification factor, indicates the apoptosis rate of CD8+ cytotoxic T cell population, and the last terms in the T cell population equation give the rate at which naive T cells leave and re-enter the effector state after finishing the minimal developmental program of cell divisions (due to antigen stimulation) combined with positive growth and suppressive signals at different rates for self-development or regulatory mechanisms. The time delay , where is the duration of the cell cycle for T cell division, is the duration of this program.
Leukemia cells suppress the anti-leukemia immune response. The precise mechanism is unknown. It is assumed that the level of downregulation depends on the current leukemia population. This competition between T cells and leukemia cells is expressed by the presence of the mature population of leukemic cells in the denominators of the second and the third terms, and . These terms, respectively, represent the loss and production of T cells due to competition with leukemic cells.
It is not difficult to see that if the initial conditions are positive, the solution will be positive for .
2. Equilibrium Points and Medical Interpretations
System (1.1) has four possible types of equilibrium points: (0, 0, 0, 0, 0) (a death state), (a healthy state), (an acute state), and (a chronic state).
From a medical point of view, we are interested only in equilibrium points with non-negative components.
As state variables represent cell populations (of blood in this case), the normal evolution of a healthy state is characterized by constant behavior, eventually displaying small fluctuations. Mathematically, this translates into a stable non-trivial steady-state or a stable limit cycle. Suppose now that an incipient leukemic process is initiated. Two situations can occur: the defense mechanisms of the organism can defeat the leukemic process at the very beginning or the cancer cell population develops and invades the healthy cell population. The term “invasion” means that, starting from a small number of cells, the number of leukemic cells growths and outnumbers the healthy ones. The invasion happens when, although in a neighborhood of zero, the number of leukemic cells is large enough to have already escaped the defense mechanisms. This kind of invasion is taken from the ecology of populations and does not have the same meaning with the term used in oncology.
CML cell populations are characterized by lower mortality and higher proliferation or differentiation, features that progress in time (with the accumulation of more mutations) and confer more “strength” to these cancer cells (see [
19]). It follows that, in a hypothetical system of solely cancer cell lines, the features just mentioned ensure an increasing growth. This and the invasive character of leukemia imply that, in a theoretical case of only CML cell populations, one would expect the trivial equilibrium to be unstable and an eventual limit cycle that is also unstable.
In a real system of coexisting healthy and CML cell populations, although CML, as a chronic disease, advances slowly, in a couple of years, if no treatment is present, the cancer cell populations will overwhelm the organism. A parallel can be made with invasive populations from ecology (see [
20,
21]). It follows from this reasoning that leukemia develops when, in the real system of healthy and CML cell populations, the equilibria with nonzero components for healthy populations and zero ones for leukemic populations are not stable.
An interesting equilibrium point is , which corresponds to the extinction of the healthy cell populations and the establishment of the CML cell populations. This would correspond to the fateful case of a blast crisis.
The equilibria is equivalent to a chronic phase of the disease, in which the healthy and leukemic cells constantly fight for resources.
3. Stability of the Steady States
The stability analysis focuses on the equilibrium points and , as the first two equilibrium points (representing patient death and a healthy state) are not medically relevant to the study of treatment resistance. For these points, linear stability analysis cannot be applied due to the singularity in the derivative with respect to at zero.
To analyze stability at the relevant equilibria, we linearize the system around points
and
. This is carried out by constructing the matrices
A,
B,
C,
D,
E, and
F (see
Appendix A), which represent the partial derivatives of the system with respect to the state variables
x and their corresponding time delays.
3.1. Equilibrium
For the equilibrium
, the matrix for which we need to calculate the determinant has the following form:
The complexity of solving this equation arises from the elements
and
, which are defined as follows:
To handle this, we use the approach from [
22], and we begin by introducing a perturbation matrix
, which has all zero entries except for the elements
and
We then adjust the matrix
G by defining
This leads to a simplified determinant expression:
where
is the determinant of a submatrix formed by the interactions between
,
,
, and
The elements
,
, and
are defined as follows:
Theorem 3.12 from [
23] is applied to assess the asymptotic stability of the equilibrium,
, utilizing a linearized approach and stability results from the first approximation theorem. Asymptotic stability is guaranteed if the exponential stability condition is met, meaning that all solutions decay exponentially to zero over time.
We calculate the norm of the perturbation matrix
, which yields
and defines the spectral radius
The following result is obtained:
Theorem 1 ([
24], Th1, [
23], Th3.12)
. Suppose that for , , , and defined in (3) and (4), the equations , , , and all have roots λ with . Then, if ρ defined in (5) verifies the condition for ρ from Theorem ([23], Th3.12), the equilibrium point is asymptotically stable. The equation that can be used following Theorem 1 in order to study the stability of the linearized system corresponding to the equilibrium point
is as follows:
To study the stability of this equation, we apply the theory from [
25,
26,
27]. Knowing that
,
, and
and
,
, and
, Equation (
6) is stable if the following conditions are respected:
- a
- b
- c
- d
The equation
has roots with a negative real part.
We have to study the roots of the following equation:
where
For the case when
, we have
with the explicit form
where
Thus, Equation (
7) is stable for
if, and only if,
and
.
Assume that when
, the conditions are met and Equation (
7) is stable. Stability may be lost if and only if the roots of Equation (
7) move across the imaginary axis from left to right as the delay parameters change. This can occur only if purely imaginary roots exist, which leads us to consider the equation
, where
. Under these conditions, Equation (
7) transforms into
We now seek the conditions under which has no real roots. For this, we will examine the equation to determine whether any specific constraints on the coefficients and parameters can prevent the existence of real roots.
Furthermore, following [
28], we denote the real part of
as
and the imaginary part as
and then square each of them for further analysis.
So, Equation (
7) only has roots with a negative real part if the equation
has no positive roots.
3.2. Equilibrium
The analysis of the equilibrium point using the characteristic equation appears difficult; therefore, we will explore a Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional to assess its stability.
The first step involves translating the system to the origin by defining
This yields the following system in terms of deviations:
For our analysis, we will consider the following form of a Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional:
where
, and
for
As we are working in the framework of the first approximation method, we consider the linearized system
where
and we denote the coefficients of the functions
,
as follows:
Proposition 1. Assume the following conditions hold:Then, the equilibrium point is stable, independent of delays. Proof. We begin the proof by calculating the derivative of
V:
To derive sufficient stability conditions, we need to ensure that is negative, which involves analyzing the terms related to and constructing perfect squares to confirm that the expressions are negative.
By applying this to all complicated terms, we obtain the following conditions:
By following the steps outlined in [
9], we arrive at the following conditions:
□
Remark 1. The above parameter conditions are only sufficient; they are not necessary.
This study has demonstrated that using a Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional provides a viable method for assessing the stability of the equilibrium point . By constructing appropriate stability conditions through the first approximation method, we ensured that the derivative of the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional is negative. Although the derived conditions are sufficient and guarantee stability, they are not necessary, meaning there could be other parameter values that also lead to stability.
4. Numerical Results and Simulations
For the numerical study, we used the parameter values found in
Table 1 and
Table 2.
Based on the numerical calculations,
, indicating that
is unstable.
Figure 1 addresses the equilibrium point
, where the number of healthy cells is zero. The persistence of leukemic stem cells (
), even with treatment, indicates an unstable equilibrium. The resistant population prevents full suppression, meaning that any slight perturbation (e.g., a reduction in immune response or a slight change in conditions) could allow these cells to repopulate rapidly, moving the system further from equilibrium. The low but persistent level of mature leukemic cells (
) contributes to instability because it reflects ongoing activity from resistant leukemic stem cells. This creates a feedback loop where resistant stem cells produce mature cells, keeping the leukemic cell population from reaching zero and maintaining an unstable state. The immune system (
) appears to be unable to mount an effective response against the resistant leukemic cells. This may be due to the resistant cells evading immune detection or due to the immune system being suppressed by the high burden of leukemic cells. An ineffective immune response allows resistant leukemic cells to persist and proliferate, contributing to instability. This simulation demonstrates that even with treatment, the presence of resistance in leukemic cells drives the system toward instability.
Figure 2 shows that in the absence of treatment resistance, the population of leukemic stem cells
and mature leukemic cells
declines significantly over time. As the leukemic cells decrease, the healthy stem cells
and mature healthy cells
begin to recover. The immune system
remains stable, suggesting that the treatment effectively controls the leukemia and allows the healthy cell populations to stabilize.
When resistance to treatment is introduced, a stark contrast appears. Both leukemic stem cells and mature leukemic cells begin to oscillate heavily, indicating unstable dynamics and the persistence of the leukemic cell population. These oscillations suggest that the treatment becomes ineffective over time, and leukemic cells continue to proliferate. The healthy stem cells and mature healthy cells remain suppressed, unable to recover due to the continued dominance of leukemic cells.
Figure 3 demonstrates that, despite the initially high population of healthy mature cells (
), resistance allows leukemic cells to quickly dominate, driving both healthy stem and mature cell populations to near-zero. The presence of resistance (black) results in an unstable equilibrium, where leukemic cells proliferate aggressively and suppress healthy cells. Without resistance (red), treatment is effective, allowing for a more stable state with low but steady healthy cell populations. Mature cells are replenished by stem cells through differentiation. However, if there is an initially high number of mature cells (
) and low number of stem cells (
), the system may experience a delayed adjustment period as it tries to balance the mature cell population.
Due to the fact that the immune system is inhibited by a large CML cell population, it is straightforward that the plot for will show a decreasing evolution once the leukemic cell population reaches a certain burden.