Water Level Temporal Variability of Lake Mégantic during the Period 1920–2020 and Its Impacts on the Frequency of Heavy Flooding of the Chaudière River (Quebec, Canada)
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Choice and Description of the Study Site
2.2. Data Sources and Constitution of Hydroclimatic Series
2.3. Statistical Data Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Analysis of the Temporal Variability in Water Levels in Lake Mégantic during the Period 1920–2020
3.2. Analysis of the Temporal Variability in the Flows of the Famine River as Well as the Temperatures and Precipitation Measured at the Saint-Ludger Climatic Station
3.3. Relationship between Water Levels and Climate Indices
3.4. Analysis of the Impacts of Lake Mégantic on the Long-Term Flow Trend and Flooding of the Chaudière River
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Scale | MMK | TPCW | MMKH | LTP | Lombard Test | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Z | p-Values | Z | p-Values | Z | p-Values | Z | p-Values | Sn | T1–T2 | |
Year | ||||||||||
Maximum | −8.909 * | 0.000 | −9.135 * | 0.000 | −9.817 * | 0.000 | −4.917 * | 0.000 | 0.671 * | 1957–1963 |
Minimum | −1.232 | 0.218 | −1.181 | 0.238 | −1.144 | 0.253 | −0.758 | 0.449 | 0.025 | - |
Mean | −8.545 * | 0.000 | −9.970 * | 0.000 | −6.404 * | 0.000 | −2.096 * | 0.036 | 0.624 * | 1959–1963 |
Winter | ||||||||||
Maximum | −5.418 * | 0.000 | −5.454 * | 0.000 | −8.285 * | 0.000 | −2.691 * | 0.007 | 0.292 * | 1959–1960 |
Minimum | −3.302 * | 0.001 | −3.650 * | 0.000 | −3.218 * | 0.001 | −1.602 | 0.109 | 0.106 * | 1959–1960 |
Mean | −4.880 * | 0.000 | −5.382 * | 0.000 | −5.606 * | 0.000 | −2.446 * | 0.014 | 0.205 * | 1959–1960 |
Spring | ||||||||||
Maximum | −8.584 * | 0.000 | −8.742 * | 0.000 | −9.103 * | 0.000 | −5.233 * | 0.000 | 0.648 * | 1957–1963 |
Minimum | −4.839 * | 0.000 | −4.553 * | 0.000 | −5.698 * | 0.000 | −3.695 * | 0.000 | 0.200 * | 1962–1963 |
Mean | −9.972 * | 0.000 | −11.341 * | 0.000 | −4.093 * | 0.000 | −2.708 * | 0.007 | 0.755 * | 1960–1963 |
Summer | ||||||||||
Maximum | −8.244 * | 0.000 | −8.926 * | 0.000 | −5.117 * | 0.000 | −2.615 * | 0.009 | 0.572 * | 1960–1963 |
Minimum | −0.983 | 0.326 | −0.921 | 0.000 | −1.190 | 0.234 | −0.591 | 0.554 | 0.005 | - |
Mean | −6.312 * | 0.000 | −6.685 * | 0.000 | −6.629 * | 0.000 | −2.524 * | 0.012 | 0.380 * | 1961–1962 |
Fall | ||||||||||
Maximum | −6.235 * | 0.000 | −6.280 * | 0.000 | −6.877 * | 0.000 | −4.238 * | 0.000 | 0.339 * | 1962–1963 |
Minimum | −3.797 * | 0.000 | −3.186 * | 0.000 | −4.150 * | 0.000 | −2.254 * | 0.024 | 0.134 * | 1945–1946 |
Mean | −6.379 * | 0.000 | −6.163 * | 0.000 | −5.816 * | 0.000 | −3.802 * | 0.000 | 0.354 * | 1937–1911 |
Water Levels | Before Mean Shift Period (1920–1956) | After Mean Shift Period (1964–2020) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Sn | T1–T2 | Sn | T1–T2 | |
Year | ||||
Maximum | 0.010 | - | 0.0403 * | 1991–1993 |
Minimum | 0.000 | - | 0.339 | - |
Mean | 0.000 | - | 0.258 ** | 1991–1993 |
Winter | ||||
Maximum | 0.010 | - | 0.116 ** | 1991–1993 |
Minimum | 0.001 | - | 0.002 | - |
Mean | 0.000 | - | 0.258 ** | 1991–1993 |
Spring | ||||
Maximum | 0.001 | - | 0.0395 * | 1990–1993 |
Minimum | 0.001 | - | 0.0152 | - |
Mean | 0.005 | - | 0.208 ** | 1990–1993 |
Summer | ||||
Maximum | 0.001 | - | 0.197 ** | 1991–1992 |
Minimum | 0.001 | - | 0.120 ** | 1991–1992 |
Mean | 0.001 | - | 0.223 ** | 1991–1993 |
Fall | ||||
Maximum | 0.001 | - | 0.115 ** | 1991–1992 |
Minimum | 0.001 | - | 0.018 | - |
Mean | 0.001 | - | 0.163 ** | 1991–1992 |
MK | TPCW | MMKH | Lombard Test | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Z | p-Values | Z | Sn | T1–T2 | p-Values | Sn | T1–T2 | |
Famine River | ||||||||
Year | ||||||||
Maximum | 1.138 | 0.255 | 1.118 | 0.264 | 1.138 | 0.255 | 0.0168 | - |
Minimum | 2.665 ** | 0.008 | 2.207 ** | 0.027 | 2.269 ** | 0.023 | 0.0678 ** | 2002–2003 |
Mean | 0.389 | 0.697 | 0.203 | 0.839 | 0.432 | 0.666 | 0.0029 | - |
Winter | ||||||||
Maximum | 1.150 | 0.344 | 0.855 | 0.392 | 1.194 | 0.232 | 0.008 | - |
Minimum | 2.657 ** | 0.014 | 2.396 ** | 0.017 | 2.657 ** | 0.008 | 0.072 ** | 1992–1993 |
Mean | 1.180 | 0.070 | 1.378 | 0.168 | 1.810 | 0.070 | 0.025 | - |
Spring | ||||||||
Maximum | 0.557 | 0.573 | 0.261 | 0.794 | 0.587 | 0.558 | 0.0071 | - |
Minimum | 0.933 | 0.351 | 0.697 | 0.486 | 0.999 | 0.318 | 0.0093 | - |
Mean | −0.572 | 0.567 | −0.900 | 0.368 | −0.576 | 0.567 | 0.0055 | - |
Summer | ||||||||
Maximum | −1.033 | 0.3016 | 0.943 | 0.346 | −1.033 | 0.010 | 0.0101 | - |
Minimum | 1.798 * | 0.072 | 1.301 | 0.193 | 1.729 * | 0.084 | 0.0283 | - |
Mean | −1.395 | 0.163 | −1.466 | 0.143 | −1.310 | 0.190 | 0.028 | - |
Fall | ||||||||
Maximum | 2.059 * | 0.039 | 1.673 * | 0.094 | 1.803 * | 0.071 | 0.054 ** | 2002–2003 |
Minimum | −0.624 | 0.533 | −0.640 | 0.522 | −0.773 | 0.440 | 0.003 | - |
Mean | 1.503 | 0.133 | 1.356 | 0.175 | 1.503 | 0.173 | 0.025 | - |
Saint-Ludger station (Annual daily mean temperature and annual total precipitations) | ||||||||
Temperature | 0.1744 ** | 1996–1997 | ||||||
Rainfall | 0.0634 ** | 1971–1972 | ||||||
Snowfall | 0.0063 | - |
AMO | AO | GMLOT | NAO | NINO | ONI | PDO | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | |||||||
Maximum (year) | −0.095 | −0.284 ** | −0.611 ** | −0.150 | −0.195 | 0.001 | −0.351 ** |
Minimum (year) | 0.284 ** | 0.045 | −0.008 | −0.042 | −0.041 | −0.018 | −0.108 |
Mean (year) | 0.053 | −0.140 | −0.597 ** | −0.082 | −0.189 | 0.015 | −0.204 * |
Winter | |||||||
Maximum (fall) | 0.109 | −0.010 | −0.220 * | 0.185 | 0.039 | 0.132 | 0.002 |
Minimum (fall) | 0.039 | 0.202 * | −0.039 | 0.341 ** | 0.087 | 0.123 | −0.205 * |
Mean (fall) | −0.012 | 0.123 | −0.193 | 0.294 ** | 0.021 | 0.088 | 0.034 |
Spring | |||||||
Maximum (spring) | −0.104 | −0.121 | −0.610 ** | 0.035 | −0.152 | 0.021 | −0.399 ** |
Minimum (spring) | 0.323 ** | −0.237 ** | −0.251 ** | −0.171 | −0.013 | 0.094 | −0.059 |
Mean (spring) | 0.060 | −0.214 * | −0.733 ** | 0.011 | −0.202 * | 0.025 | −0.346 ** |
Summer | |||||||
Maximum (spring) | 0.090 | −0.199 | −0.582 ** | 0.054 | −0.269 ** | −0.100 | −0.229 * |
Minimum (spring) | 0.119 | 0.183 | −0.037 | −0.025 | 0.011 | 0.033 | 0.191 |
Mean (summer) | 0.001 | 0.108 | −0.435 ** | 0.016 | −0.173 | −0.019 | 0.025 |
Fall | |||||||
Maximum (summer) | −0.131 | 0.020 | −0.548 ** | −0.037 | −0.200 | −0.016 | −0.094 |
Minimum (summer) | −0.033 | 0.049 | −0.355 ** | −0.008 | −0.199 | −0.095 | −0.071 |
Mean (fall) | −0.109 | 0.020 | −0.530 ** | −0.009 | −0.212 * | −0.041 | −0.049 |
Daily Flows | S1 (1170 km2): 1920–1983 | S2 (781 km2): 1979–2020 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Sn | T1–T2 | Sn | T1–T2 | |
Year | ||||
Maximum | 0.0647 * | 1931-1932 | 0.0045 | - |
Minimum | 0.0136 | - | 0.0172 | - |
Mean | 0.0238 | - | 0.0138 | - |
Winter | ||||
Maximum | 0.0453 * | 1970-1972 | 0.0110 | - |
Minimum | 0.0053 | - | 0.009 | - |
Mean | 0.0353 | - | 0.0037 | - |
Spring | ||||
Maximum | 0.0557 * | 1931-1932 | 0.0180 | - |
Minimum | 0.0261 | - | 0.0027 | - |
Mean | 0.0476 * | 1952-1953 | 0.0052 | - |
Summer | ||||
Maximum | 0.0172 | - | 0.0019 | - |
Minimum | 0.0039 | - | 0.0080 | - |
Mean | 0.0070 | - | 0.0093 | - |
Fall | ||||
Maximum | 0.0183 | - | 0.0197 | - |
Minimum | 0.0045 | - | 0.0041 | - |
Mean | 0.0078 | - | 0.0117 | - |
Return Period (in Years) | Chaudière River (781 km2) Downstream from Mégantic Dam | Famine River (696 km2) Pristine River | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Flows (m3/s) * | Frequency (in Years) | Flows (m3/s) * | Frequency (in Years) | |
Q10 | 241.9 | 0 | 223.2 | 13 |
Q25 | 276.4 | 0 | 255 | 10 |
Q50 | 299.6 | 0 | 276.4 | 7 |
Q100 | 320.9 | 0 | 296 | 3 |
Qmax | 190.6 | <Q10 | 500.2 | >Q500 |
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Goulet, S.; Assani, A.A.; Roy, A. Water Level Temporal Variability of Lake Mégantic during the Period 1920–2020 and Its Impacts on the Frequency of Heavy Flooding of the Chaudière River (Quebec, Canada). Hydrology 2024, 11, 130. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11090130
Goulet S, Assani AA, Roy A. Water Level Temporal Variability of Lake Mégantic during the Period 1920–2020 and Its Impacts on the Frequency of Heavy Flooding of the Chaudière River (Quebec, Canada). Hydrology. 2024; 11(9):130. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11090130
Chicago/Turabian StyleGoulet, Samuel, Ali Arkamose Assani, and Alexandre Roy. 2024. "Water Level Temporal Variability of Lake Mégantic during the Period 1920–2020 and Its Impacts on the Frequency of Heavy Flooding of the Chaudière River (Quebec, Canada)" Hydrology 11, no. 9: 130. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11090130