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Hydrology, Volume 12, Issue 11 (November 2025) – 6 articles

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19 pages, 6718 KB

Open AccessArticle

Mapping Soil Erosion and Ecosystem Service Loss: Integrating RUSLE and NDVI Metrics to Support Conservation in El Cajas National Park, Ecuador

by Diego Portalanza, Javier Del-Cioppo Morstadt, Valeria Polhmann, Gabriel Gallardo, Karla Aguilera, Yoansy Garcia and Fanny Rodriguez-Jarama

Hydrology 2025, 12(11), 279; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12110279 (registering DOI) - 25 Oct 2025

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Abstract

Mountain protected areas in the tropical Andes experience localized yet severe soil erosion that threatens erosion-regulating services and downstream water–energy security. We mapped soil loss at 30 m using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and quantified the erosion-control service in El Cajas National Park, Ecuador (28,544 ha) using an NDVI-based index. Replacing categorical land cover C factors with a continuous NDVI surface increased the park-wide soil loss estimate by ∼58%, yielding an area-weighted mean of 5.3 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and local maxima of 120 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ on steep and sparsely vegetated escarpments. Relative to a bare soil scenario, existing páramo grasslands, shrub mosaics, and scattered Polylepis woodlots avert 95% of potential erosion, quantifying the service supplied by vegetation. Between 2023 and 2024, a ∼60% rise in mean NDVI more than doubled the area delivering moderate-to-high erosion control. A hot-spot analysis further identified ∼30 km² (≈5% of the park) where high modeled soil loss coincides with low protection; these clusters generate ∼80% of predicted sediment and constitute priority targets for restoration or visitor use regulation. The integrated RUSLE–NDVI–EC approach provides a concise and transferable screening tool for aligning conservation investments with Ecuador’s restoration pledges and for safeguarding critical hydrological services in Andean protected areas. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Signatures of a Changing Landscape: Land Degradation Impacts, Monitoring, and Restoration)

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32 pages, 4857 KB

Open AccessArticle

Current Trends and Future Scenarios: Modeling Maximum River Discharge in the Zhaiyk–Caspian Basin (Kazakhstan) Under a Changing Climate

by Sayat Alimkulov, Lyazzat Makhmudova, Saken Davletgaliev, Elmira Talipova, Daniel Snow, Lyazzat Birimbayeva, Mirlan Dyldaev, Zhanibek Smagulov and Akgulim Sailaubek

Hydrology 2025, 12(11), 278; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12110278 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025

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Abstract

In the context of intensifying climate change, it is particularly important to assess the transformation of spring floods as a key phase of the hydrological regime of rivers. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of maximum runoff in the Zhaiyk–Caspian basin for the modern period and projected changes for 2030, 2040, and 2050 based on CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Analysis of observations at 34 hydrological stations showed a reduction in spring runoff by up to 35%, a decrease in the duration of high water and a reduction in maximum water discharge on some rivers by up to 45%. It has been established that those rising temperatures, more frequent thaws, and reduced autumn moisture lead to lower maximum water discharge and a redistribution of the seasonal flow regime. Scenario projections revealed significant spatial heterogeneity: some rivers are expected to experience an increase in maximum discharge of up to 72%, while others will see a steady decline in maximum discharge of up to 35%. The results obtained indicate the need to transition to an adaptive water management system focused on the regional characteristics of river basins and the sensitivity of small- and medium-sized watercourses to climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources and Risk Management)

20 pages, 2654 KB

Open AccessArticle

Seasonal Freshwater Inflows in Cochin Backwater Estuary Inferred from Stable Isotopes and Machine Learning

by Prasanna K., Ravi Rangarajan, Fursan Thabit, Prosenjit Ghosh and Habeeb Rahman

Hydrology 2025, 12(11), 277; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12110277 - 24 Oct 2025

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Abstract

The Cochin Backwater region in Southern India is one of the most dynamic estuaries, strongly influenced by seasonal river runoff and seawater intrusion. This study explores the relationship between monsoonal rains, salinity, and stable isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) to estimate the contribution of freshwater fluxes at different seasonal intervals for the Cochin Backwater (CBW) estuary. Seasonal variations in oxygen isotopes and salinity revealed distinct trends indicative of freshwater–seawater mixing dynamics. The comparison of Local and Global Meteoric Water Lines highlighted the occurrence of enriched isotope values during the Premonsoon season, showing significant evaporation effects. Carbon (C) isotopic analysis in dissolved inorganic matter (δ¹³C_DIC) at 17 stations during the Premonsoon season revealed spatially distinct carbon dynamics zones, influenced by various sources. These characteristic zones were categorized as Zone 1, dominated by seawater, exhibiting heavier δ¹³C_DIC values; Zone 2, showing significant contributions of lighter terrestrial δ¹³C; and Zone 3, reflecting inputs from regional and local paddy fields with a distinct C₃ isotopic signature (−25‰), modified by estuarine productivity. In addition, different advanced machine learning techniques were tested to improve analysis and prediction of seasonal variations in isotopic composition and salinity. Although the data were sufficiently robust for demonstrating the feasibility and advantages of ML in isotopic hydrology, further expansion of the dataset would be essential for improving the accuracy of models, especially for δ¹³C. The combination of these advanced machine learning models not only improved the predictive accuracy of seasonal freshwater fluxes but also provided a robust framework for understanding the estuarine ecosystem and could pave the way for better management and conservation strategies of the CBW estuarine system. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Marine Environment and Hydrology Interactions)

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26 pages, 18804 KB

Open AccessArticle

Epikarst Flow Dynamics and Contaminant Attenuation: Field and Laboratory Insights from the Suva Planina Karst System

by Branislav Petrović, Ljiljana Vasić, Saša Milanović and Veljko Marinović

Hydrology 2025, 12(11), 276; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12110276 - 23 Oct 2025

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Abstract

The present research moves the focus from merely describing epikarst flow to quantifying its natural filtration performance and contaminant retention mechanisms through integrating in situ tracer experiments with controlled laboratory modelling—an approach seldom applied in previous studies. Two field experiments at Peč Cave demonstrated that the epikarst exhibits rapid hydraulic connectivity—evidenced by fast tracer breakthrough with virtual flow speeds between 0.0041 and 0.006 m/s—yet simultaneously provides strong attenuation, as shown by the low tracer recovery and near-complete removal of microbial contaminants as well as nitrogen compounds through retention, degradation, and dilution under natural infiltration conditions, including rainfall and snowmelt. Complementary laboratory simulations further confirmed this duality, with nitrate concentrations reduced by 30–50%. Field data and lab results consistently indicated that the epikarst does not merely transmit water but actively adsorbs and transforms pollutants. Overall, the epikarst on Suva Planina functions as an effective natural filtration layer that substantially improves groundwater quality before it reaches major karst springs, acting as a protective yet vulnerable “skin” of the aquifer. These findings highlight the epikarst’s critical role in Suva planina Mt. karst aquifer protection and results support consideration of epikarst in groundwater management strategies, particularly in regions where springs are used for public water supply. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Processes and Modelling)

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24 pages, 16892 KB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing Impacts of Anthropogenic Modification on Surface Soil Moisture Dynamics: A Case Study over Southwest China

by Chunying Shen, Changrui Qin, Zheng Lu, Dehui Ning, Zhenxiang Zang, Honglei Tang, Feng Pan, Guaimei Cheng, Jimin Hu and Shasha Meng

Hydrology 2025, 12(11), 275; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12110275 - 22 Oct 2025

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Abstract

Anthropogenic activities are profoundly altering the terrestrial water cycle, yet a comprehensive understanding of their impact on surface soil moisture (SSM) at regional scales remains limited. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of SSM and its relationship with anthropogenic modification (OAM) across Southwest China from 2000 to 2017. We employed multi-year geospatial and statistical analyses, including kernel density estimation and boxplots, to examine the impacts of human activities on regional soil moisture patterns. The results revealed that SSM exhibited a slight long-term declining trend (Sen’s slope = −0.0009 m³/m³/year) but showed a notable recovery after 2011, while overall anthropogenic modification (OAM) intensified until 2010 before declining sharply by 2015. A statistically significant and systematic relationship was observed, with increasing OAM intensity corresponding to higher median SSM and reduced spatial variability, indicating a homogenizing effect of human activities. Critically, the impacts of detailed anthropogenic stressors were highly divergent: agricultural modification correlated with elevated SSM, whereas transportation infrastructure and energy-related activities exhibited a suppressive effect. These findings highlight the necessity of integrating high-resolution SSM and anthropogenic data into land-use planning and implementing stressor-specific management strategies, such as improving irrigation efficiency and developing infrastructure designs that minimize SSM suppression, to achieve sustainable water resource management in rapidly developing regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Soil and Hydrology)

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16 pages, 1176 KB

Open AccessArticle

Flood Frequency Analysis Using the Bivariate Logistic Model with Non-Stationary Gumbel and GEV Marginals

by Laura Berbesi-Prieto and Carlos Escalante-Sandoval

Hydrology 2025, 12(11), 274; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12110274 - 22 Oct 2025

Viewed by 182

Abstract

Flood frequency analysis is essential for designing resilient hydraulic infrastructure, but traditional stationary models fail to capture the influence of climate variability and land-use change. This study applies a bivariate logistic model with non-stationary marginals to eight gauging stations in Sinaloa, Mexico, each with over 30 years of maximum discharge records. We compared stationary and non-stationary Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions, along with their bivariate combinations. Results show that the non-stationary bivariate GEV–Gumbel distribution provided the best overall performance according to AIC. Importantly, GEV and Gumbel marginals captured site-specific differences: GEV was most suitable for sites with highly variable extremes, while Gumbel offered a robust fit for more regular records. At station 10086, where a significant increasing trend was detected by the Mann–Kendall and Spearman tests, the stationary GEV estimated a 50-year return flow of 772.66 m³/s, while the non-stationary model projected 861.00 m³/s for 2075. Under stationary assumptions, this discharge would be underestimated, occurring every ~30 years by 2075. These findings demonstrate that ignoring non-stationarity leads to systematic underestimation of design floods, while non-stationary bivariate models provide more reliable, policy-relevant estimates for climate adaptation and infrastructure safety. Full article

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