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Open AccessArticle
Simultaneous Causality and the Spatial Dynamics of Violent Crimes as a Factor in and Response to Police Patrolling
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Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção, Centro Acadêmico do Agreste, Federal University of Pernambuco, Caruaru 55014-900, Brazil
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Department of Applied Economics, School of Economics and Business, Autonomous University of Madrid, 28049 Madrid, Spain
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Department of Statistics, Center for Exact and Natural Sciences, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife 50670-901, Brazil
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Aston Business School, Aston University, Birmingham B4 7UP, UK
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Department of Engineering and Environmental Sciences, Engineering Center, Federal Rural University of Semi-Arid, Mossoró 59625-900, Brazil
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Department of Business Administration, Institute for Applied Social Sciences, Federal University of Pará, Belém 66075-110, Brazil
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Technologies Axis, Campus do Sertão, Federal University of Alagoas, Delmiro Gouveia 57480-000, Brazil
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Urban Sci. 2024, 8(3), 132; https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci8030132 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 11 July 2024
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Revised: 22 August 2024
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Accepted: 29 August 2024
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Published: 31 August 2024
Abstract
Simultaneous causality occurs when two variables mutually influence each other, creating empirical contexts where cause and effect are not clearly unidirectional. Crime and policing often appear in urban studies presenting the following characteristic: sometimes, increased police patrols can reduce criminal activities, and other times, higher crime rates can prompt law enforcement administrations to increase patrols in affected areas. This study aims to explore the relationships between patrol dynamics and crime locations using spatial regression to support public policies. We identify spatial patterns and the potential impact of crime on policing and vice versa. Data on crimes and patrol locations were collected from the database provided by the Planning and Management Secretariat and the Social Defense Secretariat of Pernambuco, Brazil. The study employed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) to create a spatial simultaneous regression model for integrated security zones within the Brazilian geography. This approach provides a holistic visualization, enhancing our understanding and predictive capabilities regarding the intricate relationship between police presence and crime. The results report a significant relationship, with crime locations explaining police patrols (varying in geographic domain and type of crime). No statistically significant results from most geographic locations point to the inverse relation. The quantitative analysis segregated by typology presents a potential for effective public decision support by identifying the categories that most influence the patrol security time.
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MDPI and ACS Style
Lima, R.A.; Taques, F.H.; Nepomuceno, T.C.C.; Figueiredo, C.J.J.d.; Poleto, T.; Carvalho, V.D.H.d.
Simultaneous Causality and the Spatial Dynamics of Violent Crimes as a Factor in and Response to Police Patrolling. Urban Sci. 2024, 8, 132.
https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci8030132
AMA Style
Lima RA, Taques FH, Nepomuceno TCC, Figueiredo CJJd, Poleto T, Carvalho VDHd.
Simultaneous Causality and the Spatial Dynamics of Violent Crimes as a Factor in and Response to Police Patrolling. Urban Science. 2024; 8(3):132.
https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci8030132
Chicago/Turabian Style
Lima, Rayane Araújo, Fernando Henrique Taques, Thyago Celso Cavalcante Nepomuceno, Ciro José Jardim de Figueiredo, Thiago Poleto, and Victor Diogho Heuer de Carvalho.
2024. "Simultaneous Causality and the Spatial Dynamics of Violent Crimes as a Factor in and Response to Police Patrolling" Urban Science 8, no. 3: 132.
https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci8030132
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