Identifying the Spatial Coverage of Informal Settlements in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, for Better Management and Policy Directions

Abstract

Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia and one of the fastest-expanding cities in Africa, is undergoing rapid urbanization which has led to acute housing scarcity and a growth of informal settlements. The growth of informal settlements seems unstoppable and needs appropriate policy direction to create a sustainable city. Despite the significance of the challenges posed by informal settlements, their coverage is not well-documented or known spatially. The aim of this research is to identify the spatial coverage of informal settlements after restructuring the boundary of the city. This study reviewed the existing literature and different spatial data including city wide line maps, land use plan, all cadaster data, and other spatial maps collected from different sources including city sectoral offices. Furthermore, observation and interviews with experts in the field were conducted to better understand the context of informal settlements. The data were analyzed by ArcGIS 10.8 software to identify the location of informal settlements by overlying those data and verifying this with field observation at selected areas using recent satellite images. The results show that about 50 percent of the settlements are informal. It was revealed that the existing data are fragmented, inconsistent, and difficult to access or retrieve. In this regard, informal settlements are still a critical and growing issue with regard to fast urbanization. Therefore, the results can be used for academic research, devising appropriate policy direction, and in decision-making for sustainable development.

1. Introduction

For the year 2023, the official data from the Ethiopian Central Statistics Agency (CSA) projected the population of Addis Ababa, to be 3,945,000 and projected it to reach 4,530,000 by the year 2030 [1]. But the Addis Ababa wastewater sanitation master plan study documents show that it is much higher than the CSA projection. According to the document, the population of the city in 2022 was about 4,675,548 and will reach 6,008,466 by 2030 [2]. Different organizations and researchers use different figures, and it seems that the CSA population census, which was undertaken in Ethiopia in 2007, is somehow outdated. The Ethiopia population census is undertaken every 10 years. Since 2007, there have not been any censuses; hence, the forecast serves as a baseline for all studies pertaining to social development and demographics. Therefore, the projection was made based on the 2007 context and seems too old to reflect the ground reality, even if it is official data, and it creates the potential to underestimate housing issues and other services that may be needed. So far, this study shows that urban areas are very dynamic, especially in developing countries like Ethiopia [3,4,5,6]. For example, the NUDSP study by the Ethiopian government shows that urban Ethiopia, by 2040, will reach 37–40% of the total country population of 130–135 million [7,8]. According to this study, Addis Ababa’s overall population is predicted to reach 7.1 million, accounting for 13% of the country’s urban population and 5% of the entire national population. In this case, there is a high migration rate which takes the upper hand rather than natural growth and reclassification as an influencing factor for high urbanization in Addis Ababa [9].

The dramatic growth of the population of Addis Ababa demands many services and infrastructures, mainly housing. Specifically, there is high demand for housing; for example, a total of 1,398,447 inhabitants registered formally and were waiting for condominium housing as an invitation made by the Addis Ababa City Housing Development and Management Bureau in both 2005 and 2013 [10]. Only 353,376 (or 25%) were addressed and a smaller number of housings was supplied, and several reasons can be offered as to why there was less implementation than planned. Some of the major challenges identified, for instance, included continued migration to the capital and a lack of affordable formal housing offers, a low level of household income and a low level of saving behavior, bureaucratic nature and brokers’ manipulation of the housing sector, a lack of institutional capacity, contractors’ capacity, an absence of a comprehensive housing policy, a shortage of serviced land, construction costs, a lack of control, and the mismanagement of informal settlements [11,12]. For these reasons, residents are looking for other ways to house themselves informally. There are informal settlements (squatters and slums). A lack of housing supply is the main cause of the mushrooming of informal settlements as a housing option [13]. Informal settlements are mainly squatters, dilapidated slum settlements, and illegal subdivisions.

Slum settlements in particular are mainly located in older inner-city areas, whereas the squatters are located in the peripheral areas of Addis Ababa. A study conducted by the World Bank Group shows that 70–80% of the urban population lives in slums with dilapidated housing conditions [14]. On the other hand, 50–80% of houses were built without the consent of the government which makes them informal [15]. In this case, empirical studies carried out so far have shown the coverage of informal settlements in Addis Ababa is portrayed differently. In most cases the estimated proportion of informal settlements has been indicated to range from 50 to 80% of all housing. It is difficult to obtain accurate data on informal settlements in many low-income cities [16]. The evidence showed that most developing regions, including Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Arab States, have 25 to 70 percent of their urban population living in informal settlements. This is a widespread practice in Addis Ababa, even if the coverage is not well recorded [17].

Even if there are no well-documented data, the growth of informal settlements which house the low-income group seems high in number. The root cause behind the proliferation of slums is a lack of affordable formal housing [16]. The occupation of these settlements is undertaken on public land in Ethiopia as the Law states that land is public and government-owned [18]. Even though the land is government- or publicly owned, those who have the land (use right) specifically sell it at a much higher cost than what the government would, pay for compensation.

In Ethiopia, it is practical for urbanization to push the peri-urban community away from their land. Any government projects can be built at the periphery undertaken at a lower cost than the informal transactions. For this reason, farmers prefer to sell their land informally to squatters at a better cost, assuming that urban expansion is inescapable. The growth of such informal settlements is increasing because of the formal housing shortage.

Several interventions have been undertaken so far, including upgrading, demolishing, and renewal, but they have not controlled informality yet. Currently, the government’s aim is to regularize those built before 2005 as a solution. A lack of appropriate spatial data related to informality is still a major challenge for urban centers for better management and decision-making. Systematic spatial knowledge of these informal settlements is still absent [12]. This research identified the coverage and spatial distribution of informal settlements using different spatial data layers based on Arc GIS 10.8 analysis as a tool.

2. Defining Informal Settlements in View of the Local Context

Informal settlements: Informal settlements are a key issue both in developing and developed countries [19] and this issue is on the global agenda stated under the sustainable development Goal 11 which aims to “Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable, aiming to improve the likelihood of slum dwellers where about 1.1 billion people live in slums and 2 billion more expected in the near future” [20]. This issue can be viewed in many ways in different countries. For this reason, there is no commonly accepted definition of informal settlements [21,22,23,24,25,26,27]. Of course, the situation of informality is a complex process in its nature and context. In many cases, this issue can complicate the classification process in different urban areas. Many synonyms have been used to refer to informal settlements in different studies. The majority discuss it as spontaneous, irregular, unplanned, marginal, and squatter settlements. But the UN HABITAT put informal settlements into two basic categories [25]:

(i)

Residential areas where a group of housing units have been built on land to which the residents have no legal claim or are occupying illegally.

(ii)

Unplanned areas where housing is not in accordance with the officially approved urban plan and building regulations

But in case of Ethiopia, there is no officially agreed definition of informal settlements in a similar manner [28]. But most commonly, the term informal settlements are widely used by Ethiopian urban planners who professionally refer to the settlements as if they are not in conformity with the urban planning regulations, including land use plans [29]. The following is an example of the terms used to refer to informal settlements: Sened Alba Betoch (translated houses without legal document), Ye Chereke Betoch (moon house, housing constructed at night in the presence of moon light), Hige Wet Ginbatawoch’ (illegal construction)’. These concepts refer to informal settlements primarily when the area lacks regulatory bodies. It can be said that the meaning of informality may take the upper hand when it comes to having legal documents or not, which is not having title deeds and building permission from the respective authority [30].

The quality of houses in informal settlements (both slums and squatters) in Ethiopian urban centers is low; the settlements are not in harmony with the city’s urban plan, including open spaces, sanitation, and other basic services and infrastructure. In some cases, informal settlements have access to electricity and a water supply, especially those located in inner-city areas. In these cases, informal houses connected to the water supply and electricity without legal documents and inhabitants can have official bills for both services. Even the institutions who oversee water supply and electricity do not actually need title deeds in some cases, which seems partially formal. It is common that slum residents lack a formal supply of basic infrastructure and services, public space, and green areas, and are constantly exposed to eviction, disease, and violence [31].

Generally, the Addis Ababa Development and Improvement Project Office (AADIPO), which is responsible for preparing urban plans, has adopted a definition for informal settlements. In this sense, informality encompasses any type of construction (such as dwellings, fences, notice boards, containers, temporary/movable kiosks, and so on) that has been erected or developed on public land without a legal document (legalistic views).

However, the extent of informality varies. Some can be completely informal, while others might be slightly formal. Based on the working definition discussed above, informality is divided into two major categories in the urban areas of Ethiopia, which can be used for this research and to better express the reality.

For this study, informal settlements are defined as unplanned settlements that lack title deeds and building permits and that are built without the government’s permission; this includes both squatters and slums. Additionally, informal settlements in Ethiopia’s case are also seen in relation to the general school of thought characterized in numerous ways, as summarized below in

Table 1. Categories of informal settlements.

Category 1

Category 2

Informal settlements which have been occupied and built without having any legal documents from the city administration (such as title deed and building permit). These settlements are commonly called “squatters” and are mainly built at the periphery of the city (sell–buy land result)

Informal settlements are those which have the legal right to live and built according to the urban plan regulation (but not have a title deed and building permit) but build, expand, upgrade, and change the shape and size of the building over time. Such settlements are mainly found in the inner part of a city and commonly called “slums” and typically kebele (public houses) [32] (housing and land nationalization policy result)

.

Based on the different schools of thought summarized in

Table 2. Schools of thought regarding informality.

Dualist views	-Informality can be understood as a binary or dual phenomena that works independently of the formal environment [35]. -Lewis developed a foundational model in which ‘informal’ gradually transitioned into ‘formal’ over time [35]. -Ease of entry, reliance on local resources, the small scale of operations, labor intensive and adapted technology; skills acquired outside the formal are the common features of this part [36,37].
Structuralist views	-Form of survival that requires an external solution (flexibility of human exercise in situations where there is hierarchical social organization exists). -Social security obligations are not expected but one does not harm others. -There are linkages between informal and formal sectors. -Mutual relationship among sectors.
Legalist views	-Sees the informal sector as comprising plucky micro enterprisers who choose to operate informally in order to avoid the costs of time and effort of informal registration and who need property rights to convert their assets into legally recognized assets [38]. It is also further elaborated that it can happen in response to excessive costs, time, unaffordability, and the bureaucratic nature of government regulations that make it difficult to join the formal sector.
Voluntarist views	-Argue that informal operators like the informal market sector choose to operate informally after weighing the cost benefits of informality compared to formality [39]. -To avoid taxes and government regulation and lack benefits of formal health care or social security. -Bureaucratic nature of government is not an issue, but operators deliberately choose to operate illegally.
Pluralist views	-Alleviates excess unemployment or housing. -Solution for development where formality is not fully addressed in low-income groups. -Need to redesign spaces for better service. The prevailing philosophy is a formalization process where informality is registered and transformed into formality through regulatory frameworks.

contextual informality is seen in relation to housing and land tenure discourse. The housing discourse, mainly discussed by Turner explores the idea of the self-help housing logic which took interest in the provision of shelter to the urban poor accessed through squatting. Turner argues that governments should refrain from oppressing and destroying informal housing but acknowledge their valid contribution to solving escalating housing shortages [33]. Informality in the tenure discourse stresses the social dimension of informality by perceiving informality as an alternative institutional structure that guarantees rights associated with land [34]. Both perspectives support strengthening the legal argument in view of informal housing supply. Therefore, this research looked at how informality is viewed and treated locally among professionals and government organizations which are closer to the issue. The legal dimension of informality emphasizes that informality happens outside the law or violates general laws.

Contextually, the legalist and pluralistic views are more likely to make sense by having a national understanding of Ethiopia’s informality. For instance, legalistic views sees that informal settlements can happen in response to a lack of affordable housing supply to low-income residents. Low-income households prefer the easy routes to housing themselves through informality. These settlements are part of the city’s housing stock which play a great role in minimizing the shortage. Currently, the coverage of these houses is large (up to 50%), and regularization strategies are a policy direction that will offer legal documents (title deeds and building permits as per the urban plan regulation). In addition, pluralistic views believe informality can play a role in alleviating the excessive shortage of housing (detailed under Section 2.1, (i)).

In conclusion, it can be coined as (1) inhabitants have no security of tenure vis à vis the land or dwellings they inhabit, with modalities ranging from squatting to the informal renting of housing; (2) the neighborhoods usually not feeling safe; (3) those settlements do not have basic facilities and infrastructure; (4) and the settlements do not comply with urban planning, building permits, and other regulations.

2.1. Spatial Coverage and Interventions

Informal settlements are a worldwide phenomenon mainly observable in developing countries, yet little is known about their spatial coverage, their genesis, and development [12]. It is stated that thousands of people were joining the ranks of the slum population every month in the towns and cities of developing countries in 2006, where one in every three citizens already lived in an informal settlement [20,40]. The number of slum dwellers is enormous, and the situation is becoming worse for the world’s slum dwellers [41]. The growth in urban populations in developing countries is often characterized by informality, illegality, and unplanned settlements, and it is strongly associated with urban poverty [42]. It is assumed that urban growth in developing countries is synonymous with slum growth and the challenges are becoming complicated [43]. Millennium development goals (MDGs) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set targets and suggest ways to improve the lives of slum residents targeting different years. The target was not fully achieved as per the plan [44]. Developing countries put in place major policy targets also in response to informal settlements including the following:

(i)

Eviction and demolition schemes.

This approach, known as the direct clearing of informal settlements, involves evicting residents and removing their shelters and other informally erected structures like fences [45]. The schemes are classified into two types: hard and soft eviction and eradication schemes. The hard scheme lacks a compensation plan for the residents, with whom no negotiations are established; the soft scheme differs from the hard in that it is accompanied by a resettlement plan (mainly on the periphery) or includes a modest compensation package. However, both alternatives to the eviction and demolition schemes understand the slum dwellers and the squatters as the problem and not as the solution. In addition, the intervention does not seek rehabilitation but rather eradication [27,43,46]. This method is rarely effective in informal settlements in urban Ethiopia.

The demolishing of informal settlements and its impacts are further discussed in the book Root Shock by [47], highlighting the experiences faced by a person who, as a result of injury, suddenly loses massive amounts of fluids. Such a blow threatens the whole body’s ability to function.

In similar ways, when plants move from one place to another, the shock threatens their chance of survival and growth is limited unless care is given. It is difficult to watch newly planted plants adjust their new growth to a new environment. Plant transplant shock is caused by harm to the roots during transplantation. Based on these concepts it is important to keep informal settlers on the same site and create a conducive environment rather than evict them. This concept can be adapted for the regularization of informal settlement, rather than demolishing, to minimize the impacts.

It was further discussed in relation to the livelihood of informal settlers. Using demolishing as a method of intervention, root shock undermines trust, increases anxiety about letting loved ones out of one’s sight or place of living, destabilizes relationships, destroys social ties (in Addis Ababa or other urban areas in Ethiopia, social life/cooperation during marriage or death is a common practice), emotional and financial resources, and increases the risk of every kind of stress related disease, from depression to heart attack. Pre control at its infancy stage before reaching its saturation stage is important. On the contrary to this, informal settlements mainly established at environmentally fragile areas, such as near river banks, are prone to flood risks that have to be controlled [46,47,48,49,50]. Currently, informal settlements found on the riverbanks of Addis Ababa have been demolished as part of the strategic corridor development project aimed at transforming the city and protecting the livelihood of residents. The city structure plan delineated the river buffer and prohibited the area from any settlements to protect the river from pollution and protect communities from flood risks. Therefore, controlling settlements in risk areas is important for the livelihoods of the community, on one hand, as its implementation started in Addis Ababa as part of a strategic river corridor development project as shown in Figure 1 below.

(ii)

Low-cost housing provision programs

Low-cost housing is another program which can be described in terms of affordable housing. Affordable housing can introduce many new strategies in order to guarantee low-cost housing [51]. In developing countries, informal settlements are assumed to be low-cost houses where the residents can easily obtain houses. But governments can be challenged by these settlements in most cases [13,49,52]. Governments in developing countries have tried to control informal settlements by introducing an affordable housing strategy that would house the low-income inhabitants, on one hand, and solve the problem of informality on the other [53,54]. The assumption is that informality will continue unless the need for formal housing is addressed. But practically, this is not the solution to the problem. For instance, the Ethiopian government launched a low-cost housing strategy in order to house low-income residents and to control informality, which was primarily initiated in early 2000, delivering housing units targeting low-income groups. This program is called the Integrated Housing Development Program (IHDP), launched in 2006 by the federal government aiming to build new housing units, provide infrastructure, and support small urban-based businesses [51]. IHDP is a federally funded program that encourages the construction of condominiums with the goal of boosting homeownership choices for low-income families. IHDP units were funded by subsidized mortgage loans and distributed based on a lottery procedure [55,56].

Accordingly, in Addis Ababa city, over 350 thousand houses were constructed and transferred to low-income households. However, despite all the efforts in the last 18 years, only 25% of the total demand (registered) for condominium housing has been addressed. Estimations show that the demand for housing in the city is projected to reach 1 million by 2030. Unfortunately, the IHDP has been confronted with complex challenges and has found it unsustainable to attain its goal [11]. Therefore, it can be observed that low-income groups may look for other options to house themselves through informal ways, which is common in practice in urban Ethiopia, including Addis Ababa and the surrounding Shaggar City.

(iii)

Sites and services schemes

The sites and services scheme relates to the need to establish the residents as active participants in the overall housing process [57]. It is one of the housing schemes carried out mostly by government bodies and it is assumed that this approach is no more capitally intensive than other schemes. The aim is for the government to prepare a plot of land and develop the infrastructure and services in order for residents to build their own houses. Major infrastructure and facilities such as roads, schools, open spaces, health centers, etc., are incorporated in a detailed land-use plan. The major activities are as follows: first, the subdivision of urban land is undertaken; second, public utilities; and third, community facilities are developed. This scheme contributes to an increase in housing supply to solve the problem of informality in Addis Ababa, targeting the low-income households. However, this option has failed to continue and is not feasible for low-income groups.

(iv)

Self-help housing strategy

This strategy is better defined by Turner in housing the urban poor in involving the families concerned in decision-making regarding housing investment. The concept essentially focuses on an aided or assisted self-help strategy [33]. This refers to two complementary actions: the government’s or international agencies’ assistance, which is crucial, and the greater efforts of informal settlers in the development process. The government’s and international cooperation’s role is limited to providing assistance in developing standard designs, specifications, as well as supervision. The rest is covered by the owner. This is because most homeless people are unable to afford housing because they cannot find adequately paid work, and this is often exacerbated by housing markets where adequate accommodation is beyond the means of those with low incomes. This puts the poor in an insecure position, and even if they could offer their own labor, payment for other housing components prohibits them from active and effective involvement in the housing market [42]. In addition, the continuous fast growth of urban populations and the inadequate supply of affordable housing in relation to need and real demand quickly leads to the growth of informal settlements, mainly observed in Addis Ababa [58].

(v)

Regularization and integration of informal settlements

This option entails recognizing and legalizing informal plots of land occupied by settlers based on the policy framework issued by the government aiming to minimize the risk of relocating the urban poor [59]. This strategy is currently working in Addis Ababa and started in 2005 to regularize informal settlements built before 2005. The informal settlements built after 2005 are not eligible for titling (regularization plan) as per the regularization codes of the city government [60,61,62,63]. Currently, not enough is known about the coverage of informal settlements to properly plan and devise appropriate policy directions/decision-making. The growth of informal settlements is unlikely to be stopped, and it is expected to continue unless a responsive appropriate policy is put in place [64]. Of course, several interventions have been attempted, including demolishment and evictions which many scholars do not agree with because of the social impacts. Moreover, cities have insufficient capacities to implement major relocations. Enormous social costs would result from uprooting communities that do not want to be relocated, given the social networks they have formed over the years, as is the case for the inner-city slum residents of Addis Ababa. In this regard, it is possible to extend to the work that has been undertaken so far because of the positive aspects of property right/security tenure through titling in order to boost the economy improves the livelihoods of low-income households [65]. The same source further argues that keeping the low-income households is the preferred option as it helps to solve informal settlements through regularization policies. It is a recommended method of intervention, but the approach and policy direction should be contextualized. According to key informants (Section 4.2), the government is focusing on regularization programs to maintain communities and enhance their livelihoods on the land they have occupied since 1974. In this regard, the city administration enacted the regularization law to allow low-income households settled on the land before 2005 to remain [63]. But after the stated cut-off year, the establishment of informal settlements did not stop, and no decision has been officially made yet for these settlements. This implies that regularization activities promote the growth of informal settlements and wrongly offer the hope and expectation of regularization in the same manner as past informal settlements and further encourages a preference for informality in other areas. It is also argued that giving some households full individual titles is more likely to increase existing distortions in the urban land market and encourages further informal developments [66]. Still, the major gaps include affordability costs to pay for the land and regularization service, the slow bureaucratic procedures, unclear regulations, the lack of well-organized databases, difficulties identifying the appropriate plot owner which threatens and slows the processes, the violation of urban plans, and the low level of participation and involvement of actors in the regularization processes.

(vi)

The World Bank’s Low-Income Housing approach

This approach promotes a cost recovery strategy for recipients, with the goal of making the investment replicable as per sated standards. This strategy aims to create a sustainable and efficient housing finance system that meets the needs of households at various income levels. In the 1970s, the bank’s policies for low-income housing included home ownership and security of tenure in land and housing, the need for self-help contributions, progressive development processes for house consolidation, a drop in standards to help affordability, improved access to financial resources, and appropriate technologies and materials [58].

It was revealed that the government’s efforts to solve housing issues through the construction of subsidized residences for low-income groups were severely constrained by cost and managerial capabilities. By comparison, slum-upgrading programs and regularization can provide security of tenure, adequate infrastructure, and local management capabilities to residents in existing informal settlements at a cheaper cost. In addition, the sites and services program can redress the growth of new informal settlements and the proliferation of slums by providing secure access to land and services and enabling households to construct their dwellings incrementally as their resources allow at a significantly lower cost than conventional public housing programs [67].

Chiefly, this theme was based on government facilitation, rather than direct implementation, through enabling the private and community sectors to respond to housing demand providing legislative, institutional, and financial frameworks. A fundamental notion in this part is that human settlements are believed to contribute positively to economic and social developments

Yet, the World Bank Low-Income Housing Provision and development approach has been criticized as the approach that failed to the match continually growing urban housing demand and the increase in informal settlements, and that it struggled to provide new sites at affordable levels for increasingly poorer households, based on full cost recovery. The approach was also found to have limitations, such as large subsidies inherent in the financing of housing developments through loan rates lower than inflation, and the focus being directly on lower-income residents delivering shelter and services with little or no subsidies [68]; difficulties with cost recovery; and the private sector never being adequately interested in getting involved. As a result, the World Bank slum-upgrading and sites and services projects largely failed to make a visible impact on the housing crisis in developing countries [69].

As an example, in Addis Ababa city, one of the selected localities called the Kolfe Low-Cost Housing Scheme was the only low-cost housing development worth mentioning in 1974. Some low-income households were housed as part of the project after their previous inner-city homes were demolished to make room for larger public and commercial structures. The gap between supply and demand for housing in the formal sector has grown as a result of the lack of an effective government response to the rising demand for low- and moderate-income housing. As a result, informal settlements increased over time.

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Description the Study Area

Addis Ababa city, Ethiopia, is geographically located at 9°2′ N latitude and 38°45′ E longitude and situated at the epicenter of the country. Its average altitude is 2400 m above sea level, with the highest elevations at Entoto Mountain to the north reaching 3200 m. Another mountain called Wechacha is also the highest elevation which encircles the city in the western parts of the city. Additionally, Yerer Mountain and other volcanic cones are located to the east and south of the city. The city has a mean annual rainfall of 1165 mm with four months (June to September) as the heavy raining or summer season.

The total population of the city is estimated at about 3.945 million [1]. It accounts for more than 20% of Ethiopia’s urban population (18 million) [8]. The political administration centers serve as a seat of federal government, the African Union, and diplomatic centers for international organizations.

The administrative division of the city has three administrative layers which is city, sub city, and Woreda, the smallest administrative unit and the third tier of Addis Ababa city structure. There are 11 sub cities and 120 woredas. Regarding land use, generally the inner city is dominated by slum settlements and squatter settlements at the periphery. A significant amount of the housing stock in Addis Ababa is informal. Inner city informal settlements are old and delipidated, coming into existence as a result of the nationalization of privately owned houses by the Derge regime in 1975, now 50 years old. These houses are administered by the government by renting to lower-income groups locally named kebele (public). The kebele was the lowest administrative level of the government (which has been recently restructured and renamed as Woreda).

Addis Ababa is accountable to the federal government, while Shaggar is administered under Oromia, the national regional state of the country. The border between Addis Ababa and the neighboring city of Shaggar was re-established in 2023. Following demarcation, the total areas of both cities are about 43,000 and 173,000 hectares, respectively. In this regard, some of Addis Ababa’s informal communities are moving to Shaggar City. Both cities have a large number of informal settlements, and this analysis is based on the revised boundary displayed in Figure 2 below (see Supplementary Materials Figure S1).

3.2. Methodology

The main aim of this research is to identify the spatial coverage of informal settlements specific to Addis Ababa city after restructuring with Shaggar City. The research undertaken so far shows different or inconsistent figures that are not well-documented spatially. Therefore, this research tried to summarize and document informal settlements by using data from various sources including Addis Ababa city administration (existing land use map, line map, base map, housing maps, different maps, and other GIS geodata). These documents were collected from different institutions, including the Addis Ababa land bureau, the planning and development bureau, and Shagar City administrations [70]. These data were cleaned and converted into ArcGIS layers for analysis. The data collected were verified by using satellite images based on ground observation and local knowledge as indicated in the methodological framework (shown in Figure 3). This study employed descriptive and spatial analysis, at times using spatial knowledge of the coverage of the informal settlement. Using remotely sensed imagery to evaluate and characterize informal settlements is one method [71]. It is a computer-aided feature whereby extraction can be used to identify roads, buildings, and water bodies from high-resolution satellite images which requires a lot of time, resources, and has some limitations [72]. Selecting one method over another is not an easy task and it depends on availability, the purpose of the study, and its complex nature of topographic features which can be presented differently in terms of their shapes, sizes, and roof materials [73]. It can be observed that it can be challenging to differentiate inner-city informal from formal settlements which both have similar contexts. It is more practical to use the existing city base maps and available cadaster maps integrating experts’ local knowledge with available resources. Sometimes, it is practical that the informal settlements are expanding in the major urban centers of developing countries, but significant challenges remain in identifying and measuring the coverage of informal areas using images [74]. Using the existing cities’ spatial data is preferred by city managers for decision-making. Sometimes, acquiring high-quality imagery is costly and time-consuming for big cities like Addis Ababa.

Moreover, the spatial analysis results are also supported by key informant interviews undertaken with government officials, experts, and other relevant institutions from 27 to 29 January 2025. Eleven key informants were interviewed based on their educational background, work experience, and their position

Table 3. Background information of the key informants.

Institution	Age Category	Work Experience	Expertise	Education Level	Number of Key Informants
Addis Ababa City Plan and Development Bureau	50–55	20–25	Senior experts at different position	MSc urban management and urban planning	3
	50–55	25–35	City plan managers	MSc urban planning	2
Addis Ababa Land Development and Administration Bureau	40–50	20–25	Land registration and Cadaster manager	MSc geo information	1
	25–35	5–10	Archives and data retrieval expert	BSc computer sciences	1
	50–60	25–30	Regularization of informal settlement and titling deputy head	MSc urban planning	1
Research and planning consultancy service offices	50–60	25–35	Managers	MSc urban, regional planning, and human settlements	3
Total					11

. Open-ended questions were prepared. The interview focused on five key issues including informal settlements’ spatial coverage, policy direction, management aspects, participation, and the use of spatial data for future intervention strategies. The data collected were analyzed qualitatively. The result enabled us to better understand the importance of space-related issues within informal settlements in Addis Ababa city. The key informant background is summarized as follows:

4. Results and Discussions

4.1. Examining the Extent and Areas of Informal Settlements in Addis Ababa

In the case of Addis Ababa, slum settlements exist in the inner-city areas; they are physically dilapidated and deteriorated and the majority of these settlements are low rise and constructed informally and nationalized during governmental changes in 1974. Meanwhile, others are informally extended to open land. Squatters are settlements built at the periphery of the city. They are built without the consent of the government. Theoretically, squatter settlements are built by individuals on any vacant or free land informally [75]. The availability of free land is rare in Addis Ababa. As there is no free land, the land belongs to the farmers of pre-urban communities. According to Article 40 of the Ethiopian constitution, land is a common property of the Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples of Ethiopia and shall not be subject to sale or to other means of exchange [76]. But local pre-urban land holders (farmers) are the main suppliers of informal land through transaction [77].

The major outstanding causes for the mushrooming of informal settlements in Addis Ababa is the housing shortage. Many poor migrants, including city residents who form new families, prefer informality to easily obtain land in a different location where there is weak government control. Previous studies revealed different figures which have challenged the government to devise appropriate policy directions for improvement. For example, the UN Habitat Global Observatory Database estimates the percentage of informal settlements in urban Ethiopia at about 99.4 percent [28]. It also estimated that about 70–80 percent of Ethiopia’s urban population lives in slums [14]. Currently, there are more than 2500 urban centers in Ethiopia. Of these, Addis Ababa is the capital city, the socio-economic and political center of the country and seat of the African Union. Shaggar City of the Oromia region is one of the country’s largest cities, formed by merging five satellite cities surrounding Addis Ababa in 2022. Oromia national regional state is one of the largest regions in the country home to Addis Ababa and Shaggar City.

Specifically, studies conducted during the two decades regarding the coverage of informal settlements in Addis Ababa reveal that about 50–80% percent of housing in Addis Ababa is informal [15]. On the other hand, studies conducted by various researchers indicate that 80% of the residents of Addis Ababa are living in informal settlements, which are characterized by deteriorating physical structures (constructed using wood and mud), a lack of tenure rights, a severe shortage of services and infrastructure facilities, problems with solid waste management, and scarcity of amenities, infrastructure, and open spaces [75] Access to services in informally built housing is worse than in other housing options, which is a common feature of informally constructed dwellings gradually extending at urban peripheries [78]

The Office of the Addis Ababa Master Plan revision conducted a study on informal settlements in the city. The study shows that the total area estimated to be occupied by informal settlements at the urban fringe is about 2000 hectares. Spatially, around 53 to 60% of the dwellings in Addis Ababa and 70 to 90% at the national level are classified as informal [79]. The study also found that the expansion of informal settlements was primarily caused by two factors. The first issue was rapid urbanization, followed by several socioeconomic factors such as unemployment, housing shortages, low income, and poverty. The second important factor was institutional failure to control the situation, and malpractices are a major factor. In addition, frequent changes in city governments, officials, and employees, which resulted in a lack of coordination among sectoral offices, are the main causes for the higher coverage of informality.

Prior to 1974, the growth rate of the city was 6.5% and it declined to 3.7% during the communist rule (1974–1991) [80]. From 1975 to the present day, growth is much faster, as shown in the Figure 4, below.

As shown in Figure 4, in 1975, 850,000 residents lived in 5900 ha of land (70 m²/person). The city had a land area of a circle with 4.33 km covering a limited area and a low density compared to the total area coverage [81].

In 1999, 2,900,000 residents lived in a land area of 23,000 ha (79 m²/person). This zone is a circular area inside an 8.55 km radius and is far from the inner city. This is partially due to the mountain constraint in the northern part of the city. The urbanized land stretches almost 50% from the eastern, western, and southwestern parts of the city (potential agricultural lands).

Lastly, in 2016 in the urbanized land, 6,000,000 residents were using a land area of 51,000 ha with 85 m² of land area use per resident. This zone is a circular area with a 12.75 km radius and is even far from the center toward the southeast. The addition of geographic and natural constraints in the northern parts of the city hindered the expansion of the settlements. The center of urbanized land seems to expand outward and reaches a 14 km radius. The continued urbanization stretches to 21 km along the eastern, western, and southwestern roads and reaches 29 km. Based on this evidence, the built-up area expands in recent years and informal settlement growth is part of these built-up areas as indicated in the (Figure 4). The urbanization rate is unstoppable and has expanded toward Shaggar City because of the territories. This evidence reveals that the majority of the built-up area is covered by informality. In Figure 5 (see Supplementary Materials Figure S5) below, some parts of peripheral Addis Ababa were demarcated to Shaggar City in October 2022.

Addis Ababa city is encircled by Shaggar City which belongs to the Oromia national regional state. As indicated Figure 5, some parts of peripheral Addis Ababa were demarked to Shaggar City in October 2022. Still, the coverage of informal settlements in both cities is significant, and growth is much higher in both cities which need an appropriate policy direction for intervention. For instance, the World Bank and the UN-Habitat initiated the Cities Without Slums action plan, recognizing that slums are largely a physical manifestation of urban poverty, and to deal with them effectively, future actions and policies should work on involving slum stakeholders in the poverty reduction or eradication campaign [22]. According to SDG (Goal 11), in the year 2023, approximately 1.1 billion people lived in slums or slum-like conditions in cities with 2 billion more expected in next 30 years [20]. Therefore, attention should be given to appropriate and feasible policy directions to improve the livelihoods of informal settlement dwellers.

Based on the above, this study investigated the coverage of informal settlements using several layers of spatial data. The key data layers are the city’s current land use plan in Figure 6 (see Supplementary Materials Figure S3) below which depicts various zones like housing, industries, administration, health, education, woods, green spaces, and so on. The second layer of data is the base map and the cadaster’s geodatabase (Figure 7, which contain several layers of home attributes and ownership types). Third, other geospatial data collected by the Addis Ababa Urban Age Task Force as an input and condominium housing site maps shown in Figure 8 are employed for the final output shown in Figure 9 (Supplementary Materials Figure S5). These data were overlayed and the final informal settlement building footprints were extracted from the whole and then the result was superimposed onto satellite picture updates performed based on experts’ local knowledge. The area of the informal buildings calculated from the whole and the result reveals that about 50 percent of Addis Ababa’s settlements are informal.

In Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the coverage of informal settlement is not well documented. The findings (Figure 9 and

Table 4. Spatial coverage of informal settlements in Addis Ababa.

S.No	Major Uses	Area in Square Meter	Area in Hectare	Built Area	Informal Coverage
1	Public Apartments	789,947.6592	78.99	78.995	49.71% (50%)
2	Major commercial zones	10,381,650.09	1038.17	1038.165
3	Commercial real estate development	1,079,688.19	107.97	107.969
4	Condominium housing	12,479,881	1247.99	1247.988
5	Cooperative housing	8,476,895.321	847.69	847.690
6	Informal (inner and peripheral)	55,890,569	5589.06	5589.057
7	Formal housing and mixed uses	3,618,260.545	361.83	361.826
8	Large-scale industrial zones	10,078,028	1007.80	1007.803
9	Government offices	7,923,732.098	792.37	792.373
10	Private real estate apartments	1,721,662.339	172.17	172.166
11	Road network	50,949,987.39	5095.00
12	Environment and other land uses (quarries, mountain, water bodies, agriculture forest, vacant land, compounds, airport, electric buffers and substations, archeological sites, special uses, sub stations, etc.)	263,740,971.4	26,374.10
13	Social and transport infrastructure	2,869,604.914	286.96
	Total	430,000,877.9	43,000.09	11,244.031

), reveal that the current spatial coverage of Addis Ababa is identified as about 50% of the city’s settlements being covered with informal settlements. Based on the figure, it is important to devise appropriate strategies that help to solve the problems and challenges faced by inhabitants.

4.2. Opinion of the Key Informants Regarding the Extent and Coverage of Informal Settlements

The findings from the key informants indicated that all of them shared their views on the major areas of concern regarding the informal settlements of Addis Ababa (availability of spatial coverage data, relevant policy direction, existing institutional capability to manage informal settlements, and participation). All of them highlighted that there was a lack of relevant data which is a significant challenge for urban management at present. Even the existing data are inconsistent and having well-organized spatial data is important for the preparation of urban plans. For instance, spatial data for informal settlements is highly inaccurate in many low-income cities; these data vital for any interventions and can influence the success of upgrading, resettlement, or land readjustment programs [16].

Regarding the existing policies and legal frameworks, all informants held similar views given that there are no policies available as a separate document. However, legal forms of informal settlement are mentioned under different policies as a subtopic like in urban development policy. It is too general to refer to decision-making. It is more significant that policy targeting informal settlements should be considered as part of a broader set of reforms to housing development across the city. The informants also felt that the institutions who are mandated to manage informal settlements are weak. The roles and responsibilities are not clear among government offices. Institutional coordination and collaboration are also major challenges according to the informants. In addition, the weak involvement of all stakeholders in managing informal settlements in Addis Ababa is another gap mentioned by the informants. Effective participation is important as it allows the incorporation of the local knowledge of these communities and offers opportunities to highlight local needs and aspirations. It is extremely useful in overcoming existing inefficiencies.

For the better management of informal settlements across the city, it is helpful to have well-documented spatial data that shows the location and distribution of informal settlements, which helps to devise appropriate policy directions and reform and responsive institutional setups.

By nature, the governance of informal settlements is one of the most serious challenges due to its complexity [82]. Understanding the context of informal settlements is critical for developing an effective response. Policy options, related to control of informal land occupation, urban planning, and governance, are critical to improving the problem. As depicted in Figure 10, below, the engagement and involvement of actors in the overall management of informal settlements is required. On the other hand, responsible institutions should be established and strengthened, as well as the leadership and expert skills required for the successful and efficient management of informal settlements. This will empower leaders to establish accountability and openness. Establishing community or stakeholder platforms to assist with the creation of a consensus is critical because it will facilitate the provision of public services. Furthermore, political commitment is essential for effective reforms.

Moreover, these key elements are detailed in

Table 5. Summary of key respondents’ feedback.

Category	Summary of Major Issues Interviewed	Summary of Responses
Spatial coverage and context	Availability of spatial data that depicts the coverages and extents informality	There is no complete, reliable, and recent database for decision making
Policy and legal frameworks	Views of officials and experts regarding informal settlements in Addis Ababa	Informal settlers own the land by purchasing from farmers. Informal transaction undertaken through negotiations which sometimes lead to conflict among parties (Ethiopia land ownership is government). Two main reasons: the first is weak institutional and legal framework to house low-income residents. Secondly, speculation of land for better economic profit. Inner-city informal settlements arose during the Haile Selassie Regime (Ethiopia’s emperor from 1930 to 1974), whereas periphery informal settlements grew more recently by taking government/public land through land purchase. Most inner-city informal settlements appear to be legal but do not have title deeds and are shanty or deteriorating
	Major challenges of informal settlements in preparing and implementing city plans	Lack of consistent policy on how to address informal settlements. Predominance (widespread nature) in the city that is not easy to address. Constructed on green land use (which against city plan regulation) Difficulty in organizing the actual data and settlers fear urban plans because they could not claim for tenure
Organization structure	Institutional coordination and integration in managing informal settlements	Lack of capacity and weak integration (land development and management, city plan, construction permit bureaus, and legal enforcement bureau)
	Time for the invasion informal settlements	When political instability occurs, weak government control time Peripheral informal occupation occurs due to their hidden location far away, preferring nighttime, weekends, holidays when no regulatory bodies are present
	Availability of issues specific polices and legal frame works	No specific policies related to informal settlements, but it is treated under urban land and development policies and either generic or inconsistent
	Major intervention practiced so far	Regularization: the government has given recognition to informal settlements built before 2005. No decision for the informal settlements built after 2005
Participation	Participation and involvement of stakeholders	Weak participation and involvement of stakeholders and the communities
Recommendations	Suggested future directions	Creating a strong institution and legal system, well-organized spatial data as a base for management and decision-making, creating healthy and mutually supportive development linkage between rural and urban local governments at the periphery and participatory, affordability, regularization, and the provision of tenure security

, and the logical framework for the reform is indicated in Figure 10. In the framework, it is illustrated that knowledge of spatial data is a vital factor which can be used as a baseline for overall policy options and decision-making.

5. Conclusions

High population growth in Addis Ababa resulted through migration from both rural and urban areas, which lead to a growth of informality. According to Ethiopia’s national urban development plan [83], this growth expected to continue in the future. Urbanization is primarily challenged by environmental hazards, housing inadequacy, poverty, unemployment, and informal settlements. Thus, inclusive cities and sustainable urbanization can be realized through appropriate regulatory instruments and strategies that tackle the problems of informal settlements. The increasing number of informal settlements will continue unless appropriate measures are taken. It is indicated that the housing demand in Addis Ababa is a chronic and challenging issue, especially for low-income residents. For this reason, residents are looking for accessible housing options (informal settlements). Due to the increasing number of people, low-income households, in particular, try to solve their housing needs by obtaining land informally from pre-urban area farmers. Local pre-urban farmers are the principal suppliers of land for housing [77].

As its objectives, this study attempted to review the spatial coverage of informal settlements and update the current spatial coverage found in Addis Ababa city after restructuring the city territory. This study identified the current spatial coverage of the informal settlement in Addis Ababa based on spatial data collected from different sources. The current coverage of informal settlements in Addis Ababa is identified as 50%. The studies made so far have been identified as either old or inconsistent and do not reflect the current reality. Urban administrations are challenged with the lack of spatially documented data related to the informal settlements that help to devise appropriate policy directions to manage, prioritize, and improve the livelihoods of the urban poor and properly manage resources, climate change, and environmental protection.

Existing policies addressing informal settlements are rarely stated in Ethiopia’s urban development and land management policies, which can be shared by all cities in the country, including Addis Ababa. So far, the city administration has approved different directives for the regularization of informal settlements built up to 2005 which dealt with intervention procedures only. The regulation did not include those built after 2005. As a result, it is recommended to have holistic policies and legal frameworks that assist the overall management of informal settlements in cities. In this regard, appropriate spatial data that show the coverage and distribution of the settlements serve as important input for policy directions, as graphically illustrated in Figure 10.