Quantifying Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy
Abstract
:1. Introduction
Climate change will cause large numbers of casualties, perhaps extending over thousands of years. Casualties have a clear moral significance that economic and other technical measures of harm tend to mask. They are, moreover, universally understood, whereas other measures of harm are not. Therefore, the harms of climate change should regularly be expressed in terms of casualties by such agencies such as IPCC’s Working Group III, in addition to whatever other measures are used. Casualty estimates should, furthermore, be used to derive estimates of casualties per emission source up to a given date. Such estimates would have wide margins of error, but they would add substantially to humanity’s grasp of the moral costs of particular greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Approaches to Quantifying Carbon Emissions with Human Deaths
2.1. The 1000-ton Rule
- Before 2022, humans burned roughly 0.6 trillion tons of fossil carbon, causing a global temperature increase of roughly 1.2 °C. Incidentally, about the same amount of carbon is currently part of living things on this planet (550 billion T) [60].
- The carbon budget for 2 °C of AGW is about one trillion tons [61]. Thus, if humanity burns that amount altogether, the global mean surface temperature will rise by 2 °C. A more exact estimate is not necessary, because predicted death tolls will inevitably be even more approximate.
- Dividing one trillion by one billion, one thousand tons is the amount of carbon that needs to be burned today to cause a future premature death in the future: 1000 tons.
2.2. Convergent Evidence for the 1000-ton Rule
2.3. The Temperature Niche
2.4. Marginal Carbon Emissions-Related Deaths
3. Results: Carbon-Related Deaths to Guide Energy Policy
3.1. Large Numbers and the Millilife
3.2. Quantifiable Metrics Warranting Industry-Wide ‘Corporate Death Penalties’
- Everyone has the right to life (Article 3) [93]. The right to life is the primary right, as it is necessary to be alive to enjoy any other right such as the right to work.
- Everyone has the right to work (Article 23) [93]. Corporations promote this right if they offer employment.
- Corporations are human inventions, created by law to benefit humanity. The law should only give corporations the right to exist if they are beneficial to humanity. In the simplest case, a corporation can be viewed as ‘good’ if it creates profit and jobs (benefiting humans), but not if the operation of the business infringes the universal human right to life.
4. Discussion
4.1. Causation and Attribution
4.2. Energy Policy Implications
- Energy conservation: Improved energy efficiency and the rational use of energy should be supported by government programs. This can include industrial [122], agricultural [123], transportation [124,125], sustainable cities [126], residential [127] and at the household level [128] energy efficiency in the developed world as well as the developing world [129]. Energy efficiency, however, is not enough to bring emissions to acceptable levels [130].
- Evolution of the energy mix: Complete replacement of high carbon fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) by zero carbon content fuels (i.e., hydrogen, electricity, etc.) from renewable energy sources [131,132,133] like hydropower, wind, geothermal [134], biomass and most importantly solar, which can be scaled to provide a sustainable society [135]. It should be pointed out that renewable energy sources also can have adverse impacts on the local environment and should be minimized. Distributed generation (DG) with renewable energy should be encouraged as much as possible because many studies have shown DG customers provide a net benefit not only to non-DG customers but also to the overall electrical grid [136,137]. The value of solar studies [138] has confirmed that economic benefits surpass net metering rates and increasing the compensation for individuals investing in a renewable energy transition can be increased to at least meet this value. A broad range of policy tools have been introduced in countries and jurisdictions throughout the world that include [139]: tradable emission rights, tax credits, and subsidies, as well as regulations such as feed-in-tariffs for renewable energy production.
4.3. Limitations
- Year: At present, the yearly death rate due to AGW is probably roughly one million. This figure is hard to estimate because AGW kills indirectly in diverse ways. The death rate was probably 300,000 per year in 2009 [156], and has been increasing steadily since then. In 2010, the Madrid thinktank DARA estimated that AGW would cause one million human deaths per year by 2030 [157]. At some point in the future, the death rate from various effects of AGW will overtake the number dying from air pollution—an independent negative effect of burning fossil fuels. Currently, some 7 million people are dying yearly from air pollution (either indoor or outdoor) [158]. Altogether, hundreds of millions will die in the coming decades as a result of fossil fuel burning, many of whom are already alive now. Further, hundreds of millions of future AGW victims have not yet been born.
- Location: UNICEF recently introduced the Children’s Climate Risk Index as shown in Figure 1 [145,148]. The death rate relative to the population will be higher in climate-vulnerable countries such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Barbados, Bhutan, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Kiribati, Madagascar, Maldives, Nepal, Philippines, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Tanzania, Timor-Leste, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Vietnam.
- Proximal cause: The deaths will be caused only indirectly by AGW. More direct causes of death will include heat and humidity, rising sea levels, freak storms, changing precipitation patterns, disappearing glaciers affecting water supplies, ocean acidification, more frequent bushfires, loss of biodiversity, and so on. Many of these side-effects of AGW will reduce food supplies, causing famines.
- 240 million children are exposed to coastal flooding;
- 330 million to riverine flooding;
- 400 million to cyclones;
- 600 million to vector borne diseases;
- 815 million to lead pollution;
- 820 million to heatwaves;
- 920 million to water scarcity and
- one billion children to dangerously high levels of air pollution.
- The estimate corresponds to 10% of the projected future world population. All 10 billion humans will need food and fresh water to survive, and AGW will seriously affect both.
- Since CO2 stays in the atmosphere for about a century, the prediction implies that, on average, 10 million additional deaths per year will be due to AGW.
- If the wet-bulb temperature exceeds skin temperature, perspiration can no longer cool the body. Already in 2022, this effect was life-threatening for a billion people in India and Pakistan [162]. In the same countries in 2023, maximum temperatures were consistently above 40 °C for over two weeks [161].
4.4. Causes of Death and Future Work
Some eighteen million human beings die prematurely each year from medical conditions we can cure—this is equivalent to fifty thousand avoidable deaths per day.
One-third of all human lives end in early death from poverty-related causes. Most of these premature deaths are avoidable through global institutional reforms that would eradicate extreme poverty. Many are also avoidable through global health-system reform that would make medical knowledge freely available as a global public good.
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Pearce, J.M.; Parncutt, R. Quantifying Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy. Energies 2023, 16, 6074. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16166074
Pearce JM, Parncutt R. Quantifying Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy. Energies. 2023; 16(16):6074. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16166074
Chicago/Turabian StylePearce, Joshua M., and Richard Parncutt. 2023. "Quantifying Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy" Energies 16, no. 16: 6074. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16166074