Assessing Maize Yield Spatiotemporal Variability Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Machine Learning

Optimizing the prediction of maize (Zea mays L.) yields in smallholder farming systems enhances crop management and thus contributes to reducing hunger and achieving one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 2—zero hunger). This research investigated the capability of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-derived data and machine learning algorithms to estimate maize yield and evaluate its spatiotemporal variability through the phenological cycle of the crop in Bronkhorstspruit, South Africa, where UAV data collection took over four dates (pre-flowering, flowering, grain filling, and maturity). The five spectral bands (red, green, blue, near-infrared, and red-edge) of the UAV data, vegetation indices, and grey-level co-occurrence matrix textural features were computed from the bands. Feature selection relied on the correlation between these features and the measured maize yield to estimate maize yield at each growth period. Crop yield prediction was then conducted using our machine learning (ML) regression models, including Random Forest, Gradient Boosting (GradBoost), Categorical Boosting, and Extreme Gradient Boosting. The GradBoost regression showed the best overall model accuracy with R² ranging from 0.05 to 0.67 and root mean square error from 1.93 to 2.9 t/ha. The yield variability across the growing season indicated that overall higher yield values were predicted in the grain-filling and mature growth stages for both maize fields. An analysis of variance using Welch’s test indicated statistically significant differences in maize yields from the pre-flowering to mature growing stages of the crop (p-value < 0.01). These findings show the utility of UAV data and advanced modelling in detecting yield variations across space and time within smallholder farming environments. Assessing the spatiotemporal variability of maize yields in such environments accurately and timely improves decision-making, essential for ensuring sustainable crop production.