The Uncertainty of Estimating Aerosol Climate Effects Using Atmospheric Models
A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".
Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (13 April 2024) | Viewed by 1065
Special Issue Editor
Special Issue Information
Dear Colleagues,
Compared to observation-based analysis, it is relatively easy for atmospheric models to quickly provide comparative experiment results and corresponding mechanisms for their differences. Consequently, atmospheric models have become an important tool for studying how Earth responds to anthropogenic activities. The downside is that model-based estimations have more considerable uncertainty. These uncertainties might result from the systematic model bias, which includes the physical mechanisms described by the model code and the external forcers used as model input data. Furthermore, the model year-to-year internal variability, which is the natural year-to-year fluctuations during model simulation without year-to-year changes in external forces, is also a considerable uncertainty source.
Estimating aerosol effects with atmospheric models definitely involves the issues of uncertainty mentioned above. Meanwhile, relevant researchers usually have a lot of experience with these uncertainties. For instance, one aerosol–cloud interaction parameterization might overestimate/underestimate the aerosol Twomey effect. Another example is that a 10-year simulation cannot provide a stable annual mean map of aerosol effective radiative forcing due to the model internal variability. Sharing experiences about these uncertainties is helpful for setting up model experiments and better understanding modeled aerosol climate effects. We welcome researchers to contribute to this Special Issue by sharing their experiences.
Prof. Dr. Xiangjun Shi
Guest Editor
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Keywords
- uncertainty
- aerosol climate effects
- model bias
- internal variability
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