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6 pages, 189 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on Health to Better Manage Adaptation Action

by Clare Heaviside

Atmosphere 2019, 10(3), 119; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10030119 - 5 Mar 2019

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 4296

Abstract

The atmospheric and climate research communities have made significant advances in recent decades in gathering and understanding the scientific evidence supporting the concept of anthropogenic climate change [...] Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

3 pages, 153 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Climate Change and Human Health—The Links to the UN Landmark Agreement on Disaster Risk Reduction

by Virginia Murray and Thomas David Waite

Atmosphere 2018, 9(6), 231; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9060231 - 15 Jun 2018

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 4771

Abstract

n/a Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

Research

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20 pages, 6891 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Quantifying the Effect of Different Urban Planning Strategies on Heat Stress for Current and Future Climates in the Agglomeration of The Hague (The Netherlands)

by Sytse Koopmans, Reinder Ronda, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Albert A.M. Holtslag and Albert M.G. Klein Tank

Atmosphere 2018, 9(9), 353; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9090353 - 13 Sep 2018

Cited by 19 | Viewed by 6820

Abstract

In the Netherlands, there will be an urgent need for additional housing by the year 2040, which mainly has to be realized within the existing built environment rather than in the spatial extension of cities. In this data-driven study, we investigated the effects [...] Read more.

In the Netherlands, there will be an urgent need for additional housing by the year 2040, which mainly has to be realized within the existing built environment rather than in the spatial extension of cities. In this data-driven study, we investigated the effects of different urban planning strategies on heat stress for the current climate and future climate scenarios (year 2050) for the urban agglomeration of The Hague. Heat stress is here expressed as the number of days exceeding minimum temperatures of 20 °C in a year. Thereto, we applied a diagnostic equation to determine the daily maximum urban heat island based on routine meteorological observations and straightforward urban morphological properties including the sky-view factor and the vegetation fraction. Moreover, we utilized the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute’s (KNMI) climate scenarios to transform present-day meteorological hourly time series into the future time series. The urban planning strategies differ in replacing low- and mid-rise buildings with high-rise buildings (which reduces the sky-view factor), and constructing buildings on green areas (which reduces the vegetation fraction). We found that, in most cases, the vegetation fraction is a more critical parameter than the sky-view factor to minimize the extra heat stress incurred when densifying the neighbourhood. This means that an urban planning strategy consisting of high-rise buildings and preserved green areas is often the best solution. Still, climate change will have a larger impact on heat stress for the year 2050 than the imposed urban densification. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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9 pages, 1105 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index on Emergency Ambulance Calls for Elevated Arterial Blood Pressure

by Jone Vencloviene, Agne Braziene, Jurate Zaltauskaite and Paulius Dobozinskas

Atmosphere 2018, 9(8), 294; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9080294 - 28 Jul 2018

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3558

Abstract

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most prominent pattern of atmospheric variability over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, especially during the cold season. It is found that “weather types” are associated with human health. It is possible that [...] Read more.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most prominent pattern of atmospheric variability over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, especially during the cold season. It is found that “weather types” are associated with human health. It is possible that variations in NAO indices (NAOI) had additional impact on human health. We investigated the association between daily emergency ambulance calls (EACs) for exacerbation of essential hypertension and the NAOI by using Poisson regression, adjusting for season, weather variables and exposure to CO, particulate matter and ozone. An increased risk of EACs was associated with NAOI < −0.5 (Rate Ratio (RR) = 1.07, p = 0.013) and NAOI > 0.5 (RR = 1.06, p = 0.004) with a lag of 2 days as compared to −0.5 ≤ NAOI ≤ 0.5. The impact of NAOI > 0.5 was stronger during November-March (RR = 1.10, lag = 0, p = 0.026). No significant associations were found between the NAOI and EACs during 8:00–13:59. An elevated risk was associated during 14:00–21:59 with NAOI < −0.5 (RR = 1.09, p = 0.003) and NAOI > 0.5 (RR = 1.09, p = 0.019) and during 22:00–7:59 with NAOI < −0.5 (RR = 1.12, lag = 1, p = 0.001). The non-linear associations were found between the NAO and EACs. The different impact of the NAO was found during the periods November–March and April–October. The impact of the NAOI was not identical for different times of the day. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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9 pages, 1765 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modelling Productivity Loss from Heat Stress

by Keith Dear

Atmosphere 2018, 9(7), 286; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9070286 - 22 Jul 2018

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 5457

Abstract

Workers exposed to high ambient temperatures, either indoors or out, work slower. The few studies that have measured this loss of productivity show a degree of consistency across widely varying settings. I develop a class of 5-parameter probability models that express productivity as [...] Read more.

Workers exposed to high ambient temperatures, either indoors or out, work slower. The few studies that have measured this loss of productivity show a degree of consistency across widely varying settings. I develop a class of 5-parameter probability models that express productivity as a function of environmental heat and show how the method of fitting can be adapted according to the completeness of the data available. As well as modelling the mean output, it is important to also consider variation between workers, and the model presented here achieves this. The method is illustrated using three previously published datasets from different industries and work environments. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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19 pages, 768 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Making Administrative Systems Adaptive to Emerging Climate Change-Related Health Effects: Case of Estonia

by Kati Orru, Mari Tillmann, Kristie L. Ebi and Hans Orru

Atmosphere 2018, 9(6), 221; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9060221 - 9 Jun 2018

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 5522

Abstract

To facilitate resilience to a changing climate, it is necessary to go beyond quantitative studies and take an in-depth look at the functioning of health systems and the variety of drivers shaping its effectiveness. We clarify the factors determining the effectiveness of the [...] Read more.

To facilitate resilience to a changing climate, it is necessary to go beyond quantitative studies and take an in-depth look at the functioning of health systems and the variety of drivers shaping its effectiveness. We clarify the factors determining the effectiveness of the Estonian health system in assessing and managing the health risks of climate change. Document analyses, expert interviews with key informants from health systems whose responsibilities are relevant to climate change, and analysis of a population-based survey conducted in 2015, indicate that the health effects of climate change have not been mainstreamed into policy. Therefore, many of the potential synergistic effects of combining information on health systems, environment, and vulnerable populations remain unexploited. The limited uptake of the issue of climate change-related health risks may be attributed to the lack of experience with managing extreme weather events; limited understanding of how to incorporate projections of longer-term health risks into policies and plans; unclear divisions of responsibility; and market liberal state approaches. Minority groups and urban dwellers are placing strong pressure on the health system to address climate change-related risks, likely due to their lower levels of perceived control over their physical wellbeing. The results have implications for national, community, and individual resilience in upper-middle income countries in Eastern Europe. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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13 pages, 7660 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Cold Waves in Poznań (Poland) and Thermal Conditions in the City during Selected Cold Waves

by Arkadiusz M. Tomczyk, Marek Półrolniczak and Leszek Kolendowicz

Atmosphere 2018, 9(6), 208; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9060208 - 28 May 2018

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 3842

Abstract

The objective of the paper was to characterize the occurrence of cold days and cold waves in Poznań in the years 1966/67–2015/16, as well as to characterize thermal conditions in the city during selected cold waves in the years 2008/09–2015/16. The study was [...] Read more.

The objective of the paper was to characterize the occurrence of cold days and cold waves in Poznań in the years 1966/67–2015/16, as well as to characterize thermal conditions in the city during selected cold waves in the years 2008/09–2015/16. The study was based on daily data on maximum and minimum air temperature for station Poznań-Ławica from the years 1966/67–2015/16 and daily air temperature values from eight measurement points located in the territory of the city in different types of land use from the years 2008/08–2015/16. In addition, to characterize thermal conditions during selected days forming cold waves, satellite images were used, on the basis of which the land surface temperature (LST) was calculated. A cold day was defined as a day with daily maximum temperature (Tmax) below the value of 5th annual percentile of Tmax, and a cold wave was defined as at least five consecutive cold days. The study showed an increase in Tmax in winter, which translated to a decrease in the number of cold days over the last 50 years, although the changes were not statistically significant. Thermal conditions in the city showed high variability in the winter season and during the analyzed cold waves. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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17 pages, 2110 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Estimating the Influence of Housing Energy Efficiency and Overheating Adaptations on Heat-Related Mortality in the West Midlands, UK

by Jonathon Taylor, Phil Symonds, Paul Wilkinson, Clare Heaviside, Helen Macintyre, Michael Davies, Anna Mavrogianni and Emma Hutchinson

Atmosphere 2018, 9(5), 190; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9050190 - 16 May 2018

Cited by 33 | Viewed by 7094

Abstract

Mortality rates rise during hot weather in England, and projected future increases in heatwave frequency and intensity require the development of heat protection measures such as the adaptation of housing to reduce indoor overheating. We apply a combined building physics and health model [...] Read more.

Mortality rates rise during hot weather in England, and projected future increases in heatwave frequency and intensity require the development of heat protection measures such as the adaptation of housing to reduce indoor overheating. We apply a combined building physics and health model to dwellings in the West Midlands, UK, using an English Housing Survey (EHS)-derived stock model. Regional temperature exposures, heat-related mortality risk, and space heating energy consumption were estimated for 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s medium emissions climates prior to and following heat mitigating, energy-efficiency, and occupant behaviour adaptations. Risk variation across adaptations, dwellings, and occupant types were assessed. Indoor temperatures were greatest in converted flats, while heat mortality rates were highest in bungalows due to the occupant age profiles. Full energy efficiency retrofit reduced regional domestic space heating energy use by 26% but increased summertime heat mortality 3–4%, while reduced façade absorptance decreased heat mortality 12–15% but increased energy consumption by 4%. External shutters provided the largest reduction in heat mortality (37–43%), while closed windows caused a large increase in risk (29–64%). Ensuring adequate post-retrofit ventilation, targeted installation of shutters, and ensuring operable windows in dwellings with heat-vulnerable occupants may save energy and significantly reduce heat-related mortality. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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17 pages, 3146 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Ambulance Service Resource Planning for Extreme Temperatures: Analysis of Ambulance 999 Calls during Episodes of Extreme Temperature in London, UK

by Giorgos Papadakis, Zaid Chalabi and John E. Thornes

Atmosphere 2018, 9(5), 182; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9050182 - 11 May 2018

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 4659

Abstract

The association between episodes of extreme temperature and ambulance 999 calls has not yet been properly quantified. In this study we propose a statistical physics-based method to estimate the true mean number of ambulance 999 calls during episodes of extreme temperatures. Simple arithmetic [...] Read more.

The association between episodes of extreme temperature and ambulance 999 calls has not yet been properly quantified. In this study we propose a statistical physics-based method to estimate the true mean number of ambulance 999 calls during episodes of extreme temperatures. Simple arithmetic mean overestimates the true number of calls during such episodes. Specifically, we apply the physics-based framework of nonextensive statistical mechanics (NESM) for estimating the probability distribution of extreme events to model the positive daily variation of ambulance calls. In addition, we combine NESM with the partitioned multiobjective method (PMRM) to determine the true mean of the positive daily difference of calls during periods of extreme temperature. We show that the use of the standard mean overestimates the true mean number of ambulance calls during episodes of extreme temperature. It is important to correctly estimate the mean value of ambulance 999 calls during such episodes in order for the ambulance service to efficiently manage their resources. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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15 pages, 16162 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Thermal Conditions in the City of Poznań (Poland) during Selected Heat Waves

by Marek Półrolniczak, Arkadiusz M. Tomczyk and Leszek Kolendowicz

Atmosphere 2018, 9(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9010011 - 7 Jan 2018

Cited by 19 | Viewed by 4598

Abstract

The aim of the study was to characterise the occurrence of hot days and heat waves in Poznań in the 1966–2015 period, as well as to describe the thermal conditions in the city during selected heat waves between 2008 and 2015. The basis [...] Read more.

The aim of the study was to characterise the occurrence of hot days and heat waves in Poznań in the 1966–2015 period, as well as to describe the thermal conditions in the city during selected heat waves between 2008 and 2015. The basis of the study was the daily maximum and minimum air temperature values for Poznań–Ławica station from 1966–2015 and the daily values of air temperature from eight measuring points located in the city in various land types from 2008 to 2015. A hot day was defined as a day with T_max above the 95th annual percentile (from 1966 to 2015), while a heat wave was assumed to be at least five consecutive hot days. The research study conducted shows the increase of T_max, number of hot days and frequency of heat waves in Poznań over the last 50 years. Across the area of the city (differentiation of urban area types according to Urban Atlas 2012), there was a great diversity of thermal conditions during the heat waves analysed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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913 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change

by Stefan Muthers, Gudrun Laschewski and Andreas Matzarakis

Atmosphere 2017, 8(11), 224; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8110224 - 15 Nov 2017

Cited by 94 | Viewed by 10834

Abstract

After 2003, another hot summer took place in Western and Central Europe in 2015. In this study, we compare the characteristics of the two major heat waves of these two summers and their effect on the heat related mortality. The analysis is performed [...] Read more.

After 2003, another hot summer took place in Western and Central Europe in 2015. In this study, we compare the characteristics of the two major heat waves of these two summers and their effect on the heat related mortality. The analysis is performed with focus on South-West Germany (Baden–Württemberg). With an additional mean summer mortality of +7.9% (2003) and +5.8% (2015) both years mark the top-two records of the summer mortality in the period 1968–2015. In each summer, one major heat wave contributed strongly to the excess summer mortality: In August 2003, daily mortality reached anomalies of +70% and in July 2015 maximum deviations of +56% were observed. The August 2003 heat wave was very long-lasting and characterized by exceptional high maximum and minimum temperatures. In July 2015, temperatures were slightly lower than in 2003, however, the high air humidity during the day and night, lead to comparable heat loads. Furthermore, the heat wave occurred earlier during the summer, when the population was less acclimated to heat stress. Using regional climate models we project an increasing probability for future 2003- and 2015-like heat waves already in the near future (2021–2050), with a 2015-like event occurring about every second summer. In the far future (2070–2099) pronounced increases with more than two 2015-like heat waves per summer are possible. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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Review

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12 pages, 1448 KiB

Open AccessReview

Temporal Trends in Heat-Related Mortality: Implications for Future Projections

by Patrick L. Kinney

Atmosphere 2018, 9(10), 409; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9100409 - 18 Oct 2018

Cited by 26 | Viewed by 5414

Abstract

High temperatures have large impacts on premature mortality risks across the world, and there is concern that warming temperatures associated with climate change, and in particular larger-than-expected increases in the proportion of days with extremely high temperatures, may lead to increasing mortality risks. [...] Read more.

High temperatures have large impacts on premature mortality risks across the world, and there is concern that warming temperatures associated with climate change, and in particular larger-than-expected increases in the proportion of days with extremely high temperatures, may lead to increasing mortality risks. Comparisons of heat-related mortality exposure-response functions across different cities show that the effects of heat on mortality risk vary by latitude, with more pronounced heat effects in more northerly climates. Evidence has also emerged in recent years of trends over time in heat-related mortality, suggesting that in many locations, the risk per unit increase in temperature has been declining. Here, I review the emerging literature on these trends, and draw conclusions for studies that seek to project future impacts of heat on mortality. I also make reference to the more general heat-mortality literature, including studies comparing effects across locations. I conclude that climate change projection studies will need to take into account trends over time (and possibly space) in the exposure response function for heat-related mortality. Several potential methods are discussed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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60 pages, 790 KiB

Open AccessReview

Climate Change and Water-Related Infectious Diseases

by Gordon Nichols, Iain Lake and Clare Heaviside

Atmosphere 2018, 9(10), 385; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9100385 - 2 Oct 2018

Cited by 48 | Viewed by 22443

Abstract

Background: Water-related, including waterborne, diseases remain important sources of morbidity and mortality worldwide, but particularly in developing countries. The potential for changes in disease associated with predicted anthropogenic climate changes make water-related diseases a target for prevention. Methods: We provide an [...] Read more.

Background: Water-related, including waterborne, diseases remain important sources of morbidity and mortality worldwide, but particularly in developing countries. The potential for changes in disease associated with predicted anthropogenic climate changes make water-related diseases a target for prevention. Methods: We provide an overview of evidence on potential future changes in water-related disease associated with climate change. Results: A number of pathogens are likely to present risks to public health, including cholera, typhoid, dysentery, leptospirosis, diarrhoeal diseases and harmful algal blooms (HABS). The risks are greatest where the climate effects drive population movements, conflict and disruption, and where drinking water supply infrastructure is poor. The quality of evidence for water-related disease has been documented. Conclusions: We highlight the need to maintain and develop timely surveillance and rapid epidemiological responses to outbreaks and emergence of new waterborne pathogens in all countries. While the main burden of waterborne diseases is in developing countries, there needs to be both technical and financial mechanisms to ensure adequate quantities of good quality water, sewage disposal and hygiene for all. This will be essential in preventing excess morbidity and mortality in areas that will suffer from substantial changes in climate in the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

32 pages, 19019 KiB

Open AccessReview

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Health: An Overview for Climate and Health Researchers

by Glenn R. McGregor and Kristie Ebi

Atmosphere 2018, 9(7), 282; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9070282 - 19 Jul 2018

Cited by 44 | Viewed by 20714

Abstract

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of climatic variability that exerts a discernible impact on ecosystems and society through alterations in climate patterns. For this reason, ENSO has attracted much interest in the climate and health science community, with [...] Read more.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of climatic variability that exerts a discernible impact on ecosystems and society through alterations in climate patterns. For this reason, ENSO has attracted much interest in the climate and health science community, with many analysts investigating ENSO health links through considering the degree of dependency of the incidence of a range of climate diseases on the occurrence of El Niño events. Because of the mounting interest in the relationship between ENSO as a major mode of climatic variability and health, this paper presents an overview of the basic characteristics of the ENSO phenomenon and its climate impacts, discusses the use of ENSO indices in climate and health research, and outlines the present understanding of ENSO health associations. Also touched upon are ENSO-based seasonal health forecasting and the possible impacts of climate change on ENSO and the implications this holds for future assessments of ENSO health associations. The review concludes that there is still some way to go before a thorough understanding of the association between ENSO and health is achieved, with a need to move beyond analyses undertaken through a purely statistical lens, with due acknowledgement that ENSO is a complex non-canonical phenomenon, and that simple ENSO health associations should not be expected. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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22 pages, 803 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceReview

Beyond Climate Change and Health: Integrating Broader Environmental Change and Natural Environments for Public Health Protection and Promotion in the UK

by Lora E. Fleming, Giovanni S. Leonardi, Mathew P. White, Jolyon Medlock, Ian Alcock, Helen L. Macintyre, Kath Maguire, Gordon Nichols, Benedict W. Wheeler, George Morris, Tim Taylor, Deborah Hemming, Gianni Lo Iacono, Emma L. Gillingham, Kayleigh M. Hansford, Clare Heaviside, Angie Bone and Raquel Duarte-Davidson

Atmosphere 2018, 9(7), 245; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9070245 - 27 Jun 2018

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 8704

Abstract

Increasingly, the potential short and long-term impacts of climate change on human health and wellbeing are being demonstrated. However, other environmental change factors, particularly relating to the natural environment, need to be taken into account to understand the totality of these interactions and [...] Read more.

Increasingly, the potential short and long-term impacts of climate change on human health and wellbeing are being demonstrated. However, other environmental change factors, particularly relating to the natural environment, need to be taken into account to understand the totality of these interactions and impacts. This paper provides an overview of ongoing research in the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) on Environmental Change and Health, particularly around the positive and negative effects of the natural environment on human health and well-being and primarily within a UK context. In addition to exploring the potential increasing risks to human health from water-borne and vector-borne diseases and from exposure to aeroallergens such as pollen, this paper also demonstrates the potential opportunities and co-benefits to human physical and mental health from interacting with the natural environment. The involvement of a Health and Environment Public Engagement (HEPE) group as a public forum of “critical friends” has proven useful for prioritising and exploring some of this research; such public involvement is essential to minimise public health risks and maximise the benefits which are identified from this research into environmental change and human health. Research gaps are identified and recommendations made for future research into the risks, benefits and potential opportunities of climate and other environmental change on human and planetary health. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health)

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