Improved (Sub)Seasonal Climate Forecast for Impact Modelling
A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Atmospheric Techniques, Instruments, and Modeling".
Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 July 2019) | Viewed by 6920
Special Issue Editor
Interests: dynamical and statistical downscaling; bias correction; seasonal climate predictions; agricultural and hydrological impact assessment
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Special Issue Information
Dear Colleagues,
Global seasonal climate forecasts (GSCFs) are being widely used to predict weather anomalies at monthly intervals and with lead times of a few months. The physical basis behind predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales (weeks to months) is given by interactions between the atmosphere and slowly varying boundary conditions of the land-surface, including the ocean surface. Examples of such variables with good predictability are sea surface temperature (SST), soil moisture, as well as snow- and ice cover.
Many potential applications exist across different sectors, such as adapted cropping schedules and irrigation demands for agriculture, potential power estimation from water- and wind for energy, and snow security for tourism.
It is also well known that the performance of the forecasts, i.e., the predictability of hydrometeorological variables, varies from region to region. Because of the need to improve the management of the available water resources for food- and energy production, as well as the high potential predictability of hydrometeorological variables for (sub-)tropical regions for the forthcoming season, the regional focus is set on semi-arid regions worldwide. Semi-arid regions are often characterized by a monsoonal climate with distinct rainy and dry seasons. This provides the potential to improve the management of the available water resources.
Since globally available products are usually too coarse to support decision making on relevant scales, this Special Issue focuses on how to improve sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasts for agricultural and hydrological applications on local scales. This Special Issue targets all relevant contributions on the development of regional and local seasonal climate forecasting systems such as local refinement (dynamical and statistical downscaling, as well as bias correction of GSCFs) and seasonal ensemble forecasts, improved forecast verification tools for seasonal forecast, as well as improved dissemination strategies and communication for decision-making. The collection of papers will be of interest for researchers, practitioners, and stakeholders in agriculture and water resources management.
Dr. Patrick Laux
Guest Editor
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Keywords
- global seasonal climate forecasts
- sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts
- ensemble simulations
- dynamical and statistical downscaling
- bias correction
- numerical weather prediction
- forecast verification
- decision-making
- water resources management
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